Another update, this time is after Germany.
Probabilities of getting the title if nothing new disrupts the current status of racing (for example, a long term injury, Marc Marquez becoming himself again, etc)
Code:
Moto3
last now
ACO 80% 92% Contender
GAR 6% 3% +24 Precontender
MAS 3% 1% -7 Preelim
ANT 1% 1% 0 Preelim
FEN 2% 1% +1 Preelim
FOG 1% 1%
BIN 2 1%
Moto2
last now
GAR 65% 86% Contender
FER 28% 8% +5 Precontender
BEZ 4% 4% +16 Precontender
LOW 1% 1% -2 Preelim
MotoGP
last now con eli
QUA 57% 68% Contender
ZAR 18% 13% -10 Contender
MIL 8% 7% -1 Contender
BAG 7% 6% +1 Contender
MIR 4% 2% +15 Precontender
VIN 3% 1% +25 Precontender
OLI 3% 1% -23 Preelim
BIN -5 Preelim
AESP 1% -2 Preelim
"last": probs before the race.
"now": probs after the race.
"Contender": if probability of title is approx 5% or better.
"Precontender": if can become a Contender in the next GP.
"Eliminated": if prob is approx less than 0.5%
"Preeliminated": if can be eliminated in the next GP.
In short:
Moto 3: Acosta is the only title contender, with a massive advantage. Only five riders are still in the hunt; probably only two after the next GP.
Moto 2: The crash in Sachsenring was very expensive for RFernandez. Now he has fallen to a 8% of probability and Gardner was boosted toward a 86%. The australian now is the only true contender. Only 4 riders continue with possibilities and Sam Lowes possibly gets discarded after the next GP.
MotoGP: Quartararo increased slightly his advantage thanks to his good head. However there are worthy contenders in Zarco, Miller and Bagnaia. Still a lot of riders (9) in the quest for the title; probably two of then will get discarded.
The attached graphs show the evolution of probability of title through the season.