Now that we are approaching the decisive races of the season, perhaps is a good time to estimate the probabilities of getting the world champion title or the runner-up or even the third position in the final table.
I have done a bootstrapping statistical procedure to estimate those probs. Basically it is done supposing many scenarios for the next four races based on past performances in races and current amount of points (and some other minor complications).
The results before the last 4 races are:
Code:
MotoGP:
Title:
Marquez 100% (LOL)
(it means it is >99.5%)
Runner-up:
Dovi 90%
Rossi 10%
Third:
Rossi 87%
Dovi 10%
Vinales 2%
Lorenzo 1%
Code:
Moto2:
Title:
Bagnaia 94%
Oliveira 6%
Runner-up:
Oliveira 94%
Bagnaia 6%
Third:
Binder 90%
Baldasarri 7%
Marquez 2%
Mir 1%
Code:
Moto3:
Title:
Martin 81%
Bezzecchi 13%
Digi 6%
Runner-up:
Bezzecchi 46%
DiGi 40%
Martin 14%
Third:
Digi 54%
Bezzecchi 40%
Martin 4%
Bastianini 2%
In short:
In MotoGP the 2nd and 3rd will be for Dovi and/or Rossi, with marginal chances for 3rd for Maverick and Lorenzo.
Moto2: Title and runner-up for Bagnaia and Oliveira, with massive title advantage for Bagnaia. Third position probably for Binder with possibilities for Balda, and marginal chances for Marquez and Mir.
Moto3: The three first positions fought by Martin, Bezz and DiGi, except marginal chances for Bastianini for 3rd. Martin is the probable World Champion and also probably Bezz and DiGi will have a close battle for 2-3 position.