Quote:
Originally Posted by jimclark
Please PM me....how do you arrive at these figures? 
20/16 equiv. to 5/1? (1.25=5? ) 
'Truly interested in your derivation. I create indicators re: the stock market and I just don't get it.... 
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I am interested too, and from my own experience I attempted to explain it as follows:
Hamilton has scored 137 points from 6 races, so his average score is 137/6=22.83
This is identified as Hamilton Mean (HM)
His score in each race is given the notation HS.
His deviation (HD) from HM so far reads:
18-22.83= -4.83
25-22.83= 2.17
25-22.83= 2.17
13-22.83= -4.83
26-22.83= 3.17
25-22.83=2.17
His expected score (HE) at the moment is 22.83.
Putting each deviation into the calculation below:
((HS-HD)^2) = gives a string of results
23.33
4.71
4.71
23.33
10.05
4.71
So his variance is the square root of the sum of all of these figures,
70.84/70.84 = 8.42 ie, Hamilton's results can expect to be 8.42 away from 22.83.
Applying the same set of calculations for Bottas gives:
120/6=20 (BM)
His results are:
26-20= 6
18-20= -2
18-20= -2
25-20= 5
18-20= -2
15-20= -5
Calculated in the formula gives:
36
4
4
25
4
25
So his variance is the square root of the sum of all of these figures,
98/98 = 9.90 ie, Bottas's results can expect to be 9.90 away from 20.
His variance is 1.48 away from Hamilton's and his expected result is 2.83.
I see it as Bottas needs to improve on his expected result by 2.83, and improve his variance by 1.48.
1.48+2.83= 4.31 points to make up in one race.
This may be all a load of nonsense calculation but I have attempted to work out why Bottas is 4.31 (by my calculation) behind Hamilton in terms of improvement required.