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Old 12 Jun 2019, 02:09 (Ref:3909471)   #15
Schummy
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Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!
New gaps after Canada:
Code:
    Gap   ORG  +10  +26
HAM 162    
BOT -29   7.8   -8  ---
VET -62  16.6  +25  ---
VER -74  19.8  ---  -17
LEC -90  24.1  ---   -1
I will remind you that an ORG > 10 is difficult to overcome (approx < 10% of probabilities) and an ORG > 26 is practically unrecoverable (< 1%).

Bottas is still on the hunt but if he loses more than 7 points in the next race he will be in a difficult position.

Vettel goes on losing chances. Even if he wins the next race and Lewis doesn't score, he will be almost in a difficult situation. Vettel looks as the boxer who is a bit groggy at the moment.

Max Verstappen is nearly finished in terms of title. If he has a bad day next race, he will be definitively out.

Leclerc is just in the edge. Losing points respect Hamilton will push him over the cliff.

Regarding the Teams' Championship, the situation is even more grim for Mercedes's rivals.
Code:
     Gap   ORG  +44
mer  295        
fer -123  32.9  -36
rbr -171  45.7  +12
Here the point without return is ORG > 44. Red Bull just lost its last hopes in Canada (realistically speaking, I doubt they had any hope anyway).
However, the more interesting point is Ferrari is going firmly in the direction of nothingness in just a few more GPs.

If they lose 36 points in the next race, the title will be over with >99% probability. The same if they lose 30 in the sum of the next TWO races or if they lose 23 in the sum of the next THREE races. In all those scenarios Ferrari would be out of the title race.
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