Probability of Win (?)

[Schummy]

Using points for very good grid and race positions, one gets a reasonable estimation of the Probability of Win (in a future race) of every rider. It, in turn, gives an approx about the level of performance of the rider, i.e. an alternative classification.

Mo3   Q  A  A  S  F  I  C  N   
MIL  4  6  2  2  5  1  0  2 = 22  31%
MAR  3  0  2  0  0  0  6  5 = 16  22%
FEN  0  2  4  4  0  4  0  0 = 14  19%
RIN  2  0  0  0  2  2  0  2 =  8  11%
VAZ  0  1  1  2  2  0  0  0 =  6   8%
BAS  0  0  0  0  0  0  3  0 =  3   4%
VIN  0  0  0  0  0  2  0  0 =  2   3%
ANT  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0 =  1   1%

M2   Q  A  A  S  F  I  C  N 
RAB  6  4  6  0  1  6  6  2 = 31  43%
KAL  2  0  0  6  4  0  1  0 = 13  18%
VIN  0  4  0  0  0  0  2  2 =  8  11%
WES  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  4 =  4   6%
AGE  0  0  0  2  0  0  0  1 =  3   4%
CORT 1  0  0  1  0  0  0  0 =  2   3%
ZAR  0  1  1  0  0  0  0  0 =  2   3%
SAL  0  0  0  0  0  2  0  0 =  2   3%
CORS 0  0  0  0  2  0  0  0 =  2   3%
FOL  0  0  0  0  2  0  0  0 =  2   3%
SIM  0  0  2  0  0  0  0  0 =  2   3%
LOW  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0 =  1   1%

MGP  Q  A  A  S  F  I  C  N
MAR  6  6  6  6  6  6  4  5 = 45  62%
ROS  2  0  0  2  2  0  2  0 =  8  11%
PED  0  3  2  0  0  0  2  0 =  7  10%
LOR  0  0  1  1  0  2  1  0 =  5   7%
DOV  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  2 =  2   3%
AESP 0  0  0  0  0  0  0  2 =  2   3%
IAN  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0 =  1   1%
PSEP 0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0 =  1   1%
BAU  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 =  1   1%

Moto3: Miller is having some problems lately, after a powerful beginning. Fenati and Marquez are real threats and Rins and Vazquez are there in races too, but not exactly contenders as of now.
Probable win: Miller or Marquez
Not surprising win: Miller, Marquez, Fenati, Rins or Vazquez

Moto2: Rabat is the clear boss and nobody els is a legit contender (for the title). Kallio and Vinales are the most outstanding "other" riders. And of course, if it rains there is the old trusty West to pick a race.
Probable win: Rabat or Kallio
Not surprising win: Rabat, Kallio, Vinales, West (wet), Agerter and a few others (Salou, Folger, Corsi,...). A lot of possible winners, anyway.

MotoGP: Obviously Marquez. Nobody is even near of being a contender. However notable rides by Rossi, Pedrosa and Lorenzo (not surprise). Each one has done well against the monster in some race(s), no one of them is consistently reaching him, though.
Probable win: Marquez (come on, what a question)
Not surprising win: Marquez, Rossi, Pedrosa, Lorenzo (one can argue that a no Marquez win is a surprise in itself, but, let's keep it this way)

In sort, in this view, Moto3 is open to maybe Miller, Marquez and Fenati; Moto2 is in Rabat's hands (by now) ; MotoGP is another name of Marquez.

This is only an aspect of the question, focused mainly in who are the most probable race winners there. It downplays "regularity", but who lately wins a title on regularity without many wins?