[Driver] Towards the title 2011

[Schummy]

Can we guess who are doing well in order to contend for the title or who are already missing the train of the title?

It can help to examine what happened in past (17) seasons (i.e. the post-Senna era). The following table shows average points for title winners and for "first of losers" (i.e. title runner-up) and equivalent average position for title winners and runner up.

YEAR   AV1  POS1  AV2  POS2
2010 13.47  3.5 13.26  3.6
2009  5.59  3.4  4.94  4.1
2008  5.44  3.6  5.39  3.6
2007  6.47  2.8  6.41  2.8
2006  7.44  2.3  6.72  2.6
2005  7.00  2.5  5.89  3.1
2004  8.22  1.9  6.33  2.8
2003  5.81  3.2  5.69  3.3
2002  8.47  1.4  4.53  2.7
2001  7.24  1.7  3.82  3.2
2000  6.35  1.9  5.24  2.4
1999  4.75  2.6  4.63  2.7
1998  6.25  1.9  5.38  2.3
1997  4.76  2.6  2.47  4.5
1996  6.06  2.0  4.88  2.6
1995  6.00  2.0  4.06  3.0
1994  5.75  2.1  5.69  2.2

AV1: average points of WC
AV2: average points of runner-up
POS1: average position of WC
POS2: average position of runner-up

What all that mess of numbers means? There are some useful(?) guidelines:

• Nobody with an equivalent average position (EAP) of 2nd (currently 18 points) or better lost a title.
• Nobody with an EAP of 4th (currently 12 points) or worse won a title.

Moreover, a "cut line" can be marked between those who "probably" wil get the title and those who "probably" will not get it. The better cutting point results to be an average position between 2nd and 3rd, concretely position 2.5 (currently 16.5 points).

So, how all of that fit with the current classification table (after Monaco)?

Vettel   143                                                     
Hamilton  85                                                    
Webber    79                                                    
Button    76                                                    
Alonso    69                                                    
Heidfeld  29                                                    

Title:    >108
Contender: >72
Cut line:   99

Clearly Vettel is obviously on track towards the title, having 35 points more than required to "be sure" about the WC. If Vettel doesn't fall below that threshold (18 points of average or more) then the title will be decided, but if SV falls below it, the other contenders for the title would be (in current state of affairs) Hamilton, Webber, Button... and nearly Alonso. Heidfeld and the rest are totally out of that boat.

The cut line of 99 means currently only Vettel is going to probably get the title. The rest of drivers need to get a better average even if Seb eventually fails. I. e., if SV fails, someone else has to get wins to increase his average above the cut line of 16.5 points per race to get a good probability for the title.

At the end of the season those three numbers would be:
To get the title safely: >342 points
To be at least a contender: >228 points
To "probably" get the title: >313 points

[Adam43]

1998 and 2000 stick out for me - very low POS for 1st and 2nd.
Along with the relatively high POS for the last few years.

[Marbot]

Originally Posted by Schummy

To "probably" get the title: >313 points

So, from the remaining 325 points available, Vettel needs to score just 170. Or just over half the points available to him, in order to "probably get the title" ?

Hamilton will need to score another 143 (spooky) points from from the remaining 13 races, just to be a contender. Or, to put it another way, he needs to score another 143 points just to mathematically still stand a chance of winning the title ?

170 points needed for Vettel to probably win the title and 143 points needed for his closest contender to mathematically remain in with a shout. No wonder Paddy Power are already paying out!

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by Adam43

1998 and 2000 stick out for me - very low POS for 1st and 2nd.
Along with the relatively high POS for the last few years.

Probably I should have put who were WC and runner-up in those years, for a better reference for our memories. I include them in a posterior post. Curiously, 1998 and 200 were two "Schumi and Hakkinen" seasons.

Originally Posted by Marbot

So, from the remaining 325 points available, Vettel needs to score just 170. Or just over half the points available to him, in order to "probably get the title" ?

Hamilton will need to score another 143 (spooky) points from from the remaining 13 races, just to be a contender. Or, to put it another way, he needs to score another 143 points just to mathematically still stand a chance of winning the title ?

170 points needed for Vettel to probably win the title and 143 points needed for his closest contender to mathematically remain in with a shout. No wonder Paddy Power are already paying out!

Yeah, Hamilton needs those 143 points (in the remainder 13 races) to reach the status of "contender". It translates to an average position of 4th-5th, thus, accounting for DNFs and random events, he needs podiums here and there most of time... And he is the best placed of the current contenders!

If SV continues in this kind of form a few more races, he will become statistically unstoppable (i.e. the title will be his, barring major disasters).

[Schummy]

Just the same table, adding World Champion and runner-up in each season.

YEAR   AV1  POS1  AV2  POS2  WC  RU
2010 13.47  3.5 13.26  3.6   SV  FA
2009  5.59  3.4  4.94  4.1   JB  SV
2008  5.44  3.6  5.39  3.6   LH  FM
2007  6.47  2.8  6.41  2.8   KR  LH
2006  7.44  2.3  6.72  2.6   FA  MS
2005  7.00  2.5  5.89  3.1   FA  KR
2004  8.22  1.9  6.33  2.8   MS  RB
2003  5.81  3.2  5.69  3.3   MS  KR
2002  8.47  1.4  4.53  2.7   MS  RB
2001  7.24  1.7  3.82  3.2   MS  DC
2000  6.35  1.9  5.24  2.4   MS  MH
1999  4.75  2.6  4.63  2.7   MH  EI
1998  6.25  1.9  5.38  2.3   MH  MS
1997  4.76  2.6  2.47  4.5   JV  HF
1996  6.06  2.0  4.88  2.6   DH  JV
1995  6.00  2.0  4.06  3.0   MS  DH
1994  5.75  2.1  5.69  2.2   MS  DH

[Schummy]

A graph showing the evolution of average points along the six first races.



The horizontal black lines signal the three main zones: "Sure title", "title contenders" and "Not title contenders". The dotted black horizontal line signals the level for a "probable title" (note as it is slightly below "sure title" and above "title contender").

The curved lines mean the averages for each main driver: blue = Red Bull, orange = Mac, red = Ferrari, black = Renault; dashed = team's 2nd driver.

Title contenders (if Vettel goes to fall somehow in the future) are those 4 closely packed: Hamilton, Webber, Button, Alonso. This structure has been approx the same since the beginning of the season. Alonso, in fact is hanging below the contender line, Ferrari needs to climb in performance if Alonso wants to be a worthy contender, current average below 12 points is statistically not enough.

[Marbot]

Some of the above stats have just been screwed up good and proper by the addition of another GP. What were the chances of that happening? Anyway, there's always the chance that it will get cancelled again.

[Lennon]

Too bad... it's a really good champ, the only thing it could be better would be 2 or 3 other drivers challenging it.

[Mr V]

Righto

However, what's the likelihood of Vettel not winning another race? Lets be honest, it is looking pretty good for him!

[Asa]

Vettel can win the title by finishing 2nd in all the remaining races. So even if Ferrari built a rocket car and Alonso wins the 10 remaining races, he can't be world champion if Vettel finishes behind him.

Also, if Vettel wins 1 more race, then he can finish 3rd in the other 9 races and still win the title.

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by Asa

Vettel can win the title by finishing 2nd in all the remaining races. So even if Ferrari built a rocket car and Alonso wins the 10 remaining races, he can't be world champion if Vettel finishes behind him.

Also, if Vettel wins 1 more race, then he can finish 3rd in the other 9 races and still win the title.

If Ferrari makes a truly rocket perhaps Massa could finish 2nd in every race! . So someone in FIA has to invent something to impede another fingered win!

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by Asa

Vettel can win the title by finishing 2nd in all the remaining races. So even if Ferrari built a rocket car and Alonso wins the 10 remaining races, he can't be world champion if Vettel finishes behind him.

Also, if Vettel wins 1 more race, then he can finish 3rd in the other 9 races and still win the title.

Seb has now got himself into the position where he can finish 2nd to Webber every remaining race, and finish the championship with 6 wins to Marks 10 but still have more points.