[BTCC] Round Three, Thruxton 28-29 May, Races 7,8&9

[crmalcolm]

The third meeting of the 2022 KwikFit BTCC season sees the first of two visits to Thruxton. Restrictions at the circuit mean that there limited days of motorsport each year are permitted, and BTCC has again taken two of them this year.

A quick glance of the site and it is easily identified that this track began life as an airfield, with the circuit following what was essentially the airfield perimeter track. The site is also the location of the BARC HQ.

(thruxtonracing.co.uk) Like many race circuits Thruxton was originally a wartime airfield. Commissioned in 1941 the airfield was host to both the RAF and USAF and played a major part in the D-Day landings as a base for troop carrying aircraft and gliders. Declared surplus to requirements in 1946, motorsport started in 1950 with motor bikes on a track comprising both the runways and perimeter roads.

Cars joined the bikes in 1952 for only one year as the deteriorating wartime tarmac was breaking up badly. Amazingly, bikes continued racing until 1965, but by then plans were under way to redevelop the site and motor racing returned on a new track in 1968. The new layout ignored the old runways and followed the lines of the perimeter road with the inclusion of the chicane and further round the track three tight corners in succession: Campbell, Cobb and Segrave, commonly referred to as the Complex.

Even with these tight corners Thruxton is the fastest race circuit in the UK, with Formula Renaults averaging well over 100mph in race conditions. Thruxton soon gained a reputation as a real drivers circuit with its seemingly never ending high speed corners around the back of the track where success required total commitment.

Thruxton's fame grew from the Easter Monday Formula 2 meetings where Formula 1 drivers of the day battled with up and coming talent. Household names like Graham Hill, Jackie Stewart and Jochen Rindt all thrilled the crowds in the early races. Since then Thruxton has seen all our recent Formula 1 drivers race regularly at the track at some time in their career.
In 1993 Damon Hill, Formula 1 World Champion, drove a demonstration run in the Williams FW15C, recording an incredible 57.6 second lap of the 2.4 mile circuit, an average speed of 147.25mph.

It is now the high speed rounds of the British Touring car championship and Superbikes that regularly bring in capacity crowds. If you follow these series you may have seen Thruxton on the television or even lapped the circuit on the Playstation Touring Car game, but as always there is nothing like doing it for real.


Thruxton first appeared as a BTCC [BSCC] circuit for the 1968 season, winners that day were Chris Craft (Class A), Graham Janzen (Class B), Frank Gardner (Class C) and Brian Muir (Class D). Since the cars began to run under NGTC regulations, the track has seen a good return for FWD cars, particularly Hondas. From the 2011 season onwards, there have now been 39 winners; of these only 7 wins have been taken by RWD cars, and of these four were in race-3 reverse grids. At the same time, 19 wins have been taken by Hondas, with Cook both picking up seven of those wins followed by Shedden with six. Overall, including pre-NGTC regs, Shedden has seven wins when you include his 2006 win in an Integra.

Coverage is once again provided by ITV. Qualifying is scheduled to be on the ITV Hub at www.itv.com/btcc with the coverage starting at 15:15, with the Sunday coverage start time to on ITV4 being 11:00, the first BTCC race is at 11:40. The full timetable is:

Time	Activity	Championship	Laps
Saturday 28th May
09.00 – 09.30	Qualifying	The Quaife MINI CHALLENGE Trophy
09.40 – 09.50	Free Practic	e Kwik Fit British Touring Car Championship
09.55 – 10.35	Free Practice	Kwik Fit British Touring Car Championship
10.45 – 11.05	Qualifying	Protyre Motorsport Ginetta GT5 Challenge
11.15 – 11.35	Qualifying	ROKiT F4 British Championship
11.45 – 12.15	Qualifying	Porsche Visit Cayman Islands Sprint Challenge Great Britain
12.25 – 13.05	Free Practice	Kwik Fit British Touring Car Championship
13.05 – 13.45	Lunch Break
13.45 – 14.00	Free Practice	Michelin Ginetta Junior Championship
14.10	Race	The Quaife MINI CHALLENGE Trophy	20 mins
14.45	Race	Protyre Motorsport Ginetta GT5 Challenge	20 mins
15.20 – 15.50	Qualifying	Kwik Fit British Touring Car Championship
16.05	Race	ROKiT F4 British Championship	20 mins
16.40 – 16.55	Qualifying	Michelin Ginetta Junior Championship
17.05	Race	Porsche Visit Cayman Islands Sprint Challenge Great Britain	16
17.45	Race	The Quaife MINI CHALLENGE Trophy	20 mins
Sunday 29th May
10.00 – 10.30	BTCC Pit Lane Walkabout / Autograph Session
10.50	Race	Michelin Ginetta Junior Championship	20 mins
11.25	BTCC Pit Lane Opens
11.40	Race	Kwik Fit British Touring Car Championship	16
12.20	Race	ROKiT F4 British Championship	20 mins
12.55	Race	The Quaife MINI CHALLENGE Trophy	20 mins
13.25 – 13.45	Marshals’ / Lunch break
13.45	Race	Porsche Visit Cayman Islands Sprint Challenge Great Britain	16
14.25	BTCC Pit Lane Opens
14.40	Race	Kwik Fit British Touring Car Championship	16
15.20	Race	Protyre Motorsport Ginetta GT5 Challenge	20 mins
15.55	Race	Michelin Ginetta Junior Championship	20 mins
16.30	Race	ROKiT F4 British Championship	20 mins
17.05	BTCC Pit Lane Opens
17.20	Race	Kwik Fit British Touring Car Championship	16

Early weather forecast shows that Saturday is forecast to be 17deg with a 25% chance of rain.

Sunday 16deg and 65% chance of rain in the afternoon.

[porsche962fan]

if dry maybe another BMW front row ?

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by porsche962fan

if dry maybe another BMW front row ?

On previous form - not a chance.

The most likely front row would be all Honda, then you're probably looking at Ford or Hyundai.

[porsche962fan]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

On previous form - not a chance.

The most likely front row would be all Honda, then you're probably looking at Ford or Hyundai.

but Cookie will have very little boost for qualy and race 1 and this is a long track, if FWD conditions I rather expect Cammish to do very well

[antnee]

The Honda's always do well here, I'm going to be bold and say Cookie on pole with JP 2nd.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by antnee

The Honda's always do well here, I'm going to be bold and say Cookie on pole with JP 2nd.

I'd agree, Cook must be favourite to bag the most points this weekend.

[redshoes]

Cool-ish weather should mean less of the inevitable punctures

[BTCC frog]

Here are my mathematical-based predictions for the most points out of the weekend, based on car and driver performance at Thruxton last year relative to Brands Indy and Donington last year, relative to car and driver performance at Brands Indy and Donington this year. I haven't yet added the track specific data for previous years so it currently only comes from the results of 2021, but I will add those soon.

1 Ash Sutton
2 Josh Cook
3 Adam Morgan
4 Dan Cammish
5 Jake Hill
6 Rory Butcher
7 Tom Ingram
8 George Gamble
9 Colin Turkington
10 Daniel Lloyd
11 Gordon Shedden
12 Bobby Thompson
13 Stephen Jelley
14 Jason Plato
15 Tom Chilton
16 Dan Rowbottom
17 Jack Butel
18 Ollie Jackson
19 Michael Crees
20 Jade Edwards
21 Ash Hand
22 Ricky Collard
23 Sam Osborne
24 Aron Smith
25 Dexter Patterson
26 Nic Hamilton
27 Rick Parfitt
28 Aiden Moffat
29 Will Powell

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by BTCC frog

Here are my mathematical-based predictions for the most points out of the weekend, based on car and driver performance at Thruxton last year relative to Brands Indy and Donington last year, relative to car and driver performance at Brands Indy and Donington this year.

An interesting list - thanks.

I have tried to look at form as a driver of what to expect. There are certain predicted results that many will disagree with, but what does form tell us

Firstly, the form of each chassis so far this season:
BMW
Honda
Hyundai
Ford
Cupra
Toyota
Vauxhall
Infiniti

The form of driver+car from this season:
Tom Ingram
Josh Cook
Colin Turkington
Gordon Shedden
Jake Hill
Ashley Sutton
George Gamble
Adam Morgan
Daniel Lloyd
Dan Cammish
Stephen Jelley
Bobby Thompson
Jason Plato
Daniel Rowbottom
Jade Edwards
Tom Chilton
Rory Butcher
Árón Taylor-Smith
Sam Osborne
Jack Butel
Ollie Jackson
Nicolas Hamilton
Michael Crees
Ricky Collard
Ash Hand
Will Powell
Aiden Moffat
Dexter Patterson
Rick Parfitt Jr.

The next thing I looked at was how each driver and chassis went at this venue last season (it will be skewed by only participating in one of the two rounds).
Chassis form at this circuit:
Honda
BMW
Vauxhall
Ford
Infiniti
Hyundai
Cupra
Toyota

Combining the driver form at this circuit last season, with their form this season:
Josh Cook
Ashley Sutton
Jake Hill
Tom Ingram
Colin Turkington
Daniel Lloyd
Adam Morgan
Rory Butcher
Jason Plato
Gordon Shedden
Dan Cammish
Stephen Jelley
Daniel Rowbottom
Aiden Moffat
Árón Taylor-Smith
Tom Chilton
Sam Osborne
Ollie Jackson
Jack Butel
Jade Edwards
Nicolas Hamilton
Rick Parfitt Jr.


So overall, when you combine the chassis form at this circuit, with the chassis form this season. Then add the driver form at this circuit to the driver form this season, and the ranking is:
Tom Ingram
Josh Cook
Colin Turkington
Gordon Shedden
Jake Hill
Ashley Sutton
George Gamble
Adam Morgan
Daniel Lloyd
Dan Cammish
Stephen Jelley
Bobby Thompson
Jason Plato
Daniel Rowbottom
Jade Edwards
Tom Chilton
Rory Butcher
Árón Taylor-Smith
Sam Osborne
Jack Butel
Ollie Jackson
Nicolas Hamilton
Michael Crees
Ricky Collard
Ash Hand
Will Powell
Aiden Moffat
Dexter Patterson
Rick Parfitt Jr.

[crmalcolm]

One of the BTCC's handicap anomolies comes into play this weekend. Both Hill and Turkington will be running HEM figures associated with 4th place, and despite being 11th, Cammish will be running HEM figures associated with 10th place.

For Qualifying/Race 1:

Driver	Qualifying Hybrid seconds/lap	Race 1 laps without hybrid
Ingram	0	10
Cook	1.5	9
Sutton	3	8
Hill	4.5	7
Turkington	4.5	7
Shedden	7.5	5
Butcher	9	4
Morgan	10.5	3
Gamble	12	2
Lloyd	13.5	1
Cammish	13.5	1

[redshoes]

I understand why Hill and Turkington are like that; they are equal on points so technically 4th= in the championship rather than 4th and 5th. It's the same as old ballast rules.

What's the deal with Cammish? He isn't on the same points as Lloyd.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by redshoes

What's the deal with Cammish? He isn't on the same points as Lloyd.

Do you know what - I'm going to claim a bad source on that one.

The current BTCC homepage shows both Lloyd and Cammish on 42 points (which is where I took the info from). Elsewhere he is listed as 41 points.

In summary - an error on the btcc website that I mistakenly replicated here. As you were, Cammish will get the full hybrid allocation.

[redshoes]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

The current BTCC homepage shows both Lloyd and Cammish on 42 points (which is where I took the info from). Elsewhere he is listed as 41 points.

And that's why I always use TSL website for the points table at the end of the previous round.

[porsche962fan]

you are overanalyzing things

[antnee]

The 2 lists of drivers look identical...

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by antnee

The 2 lists of drivers look identical...

I guess you could say that the cream rises to the top?
Or that in the BTCC you expect to see the usual suspects at the front of the field?

There are some differences though, for example:

In BTCC frog's list, he calculates that Sutton will be the top scorer.
In the three lists I put up, I may have weighted the current form a bit too highly.

In the end - it's all just another way to experience the contest. Take it or leave it, some people will be interested, others will not.

When it all comes down to it - I'm sure that the eventual results will not match either list entirely.

[BTCC frog]

Originally Posted by porsche962fan

you are overanalyzing things

While this is definitely true as there is very little chance of these predictions being correct given all the extra factors that come into play in the BTCC, it is still a fun activity. Including the data from 2020 and 2019 adjusts my predicted results to be:

1 Josh Cook
2 Dan Cammish
3 Ash Sutton
4 Jake Hill
5 Adam Morgan
6 Rory Butcher
7 George Gamble
8 Gordon Shedden
9 Tom Ingram
10 Colin Turkington
11 Dan Rowbottom
12 Bobby Thompson
13 Daniel Lloyd
14 Jason Plato
15 Stephen Jelley
16 Tom Chilton
17 Ollie Jackson
18 Michael Crees
19 Jade Edwards
20 Ash Hand
21 Jack Butel
22 Ricky Collard
23 Sam Osborne
24 Aron Smith
25 Dexter Patterson
26 Nic Hamilton
27 Rick Parfitt
28 Aiden Moffat
29 Will Powell

[S griffin]

The best driver/team/car combination will always make the best of what they have. I expect to see a competitive order after a while, although some teams will improve as the season goes on.

Interesting analysis though. The Fords should be quick, but they need to have a clean weekend. I have my own idea of who should be at the front, I expect the Hyundais to be up there, but don't rule out others. The Vauxhalls look to be getting quicker

I'm just looking forward to a great weekend of racing. Hopefully we get some close competitive action. Just hope we get some decent weather this weekend

[Robin Marriott]

I find Thruxton incredibly boring, I can’t remember a single good race and it baffles me that there’s two rounds there this year. Fingers crossed someone ends up in a field to jazz it up a bit or it’ll just be lap after lap of cars pegged to the limiter in 6th and nothing else.

[Mike Harte]

Originally Posted by Robin Marriott

I find Thruxton incredibly boring, I can’t remember a single good race and it baffles me that there’s two rounds there this year. Fingers crossed someone ends up in a field to jazz it up a bit or it’ll just be lap after lap of cars pegged to the limiter in 6th and nothing else.

It may be to a viewer, but it is one of the most exciting and at the same time the most frightening tracks to race at in the UK. It is hugely challenging for drivers with long curves with adverse cambers leaving you pretty much fighting to stay on the circuit.

[antnee]

Originally Posted by Robin Marriott

I find Thruxton incredibly boring, I can’t remember a single good race and it baffles me that there’s two rounds there this year. Fingers crossed someone ends up in a field to jazz it up a bit or it’ll just be lap after lap of cars pegged to the limiter in 6th and nothing else.

Not remember a few years back when there were 6 cars battling for 1st place and had about 4 car lengths separating them?

Edit - found the image

[BTCC frog]

Originally Posted by antnee

Not remember a few years back when there were 6 cars battling for 1st place and had about 4 car lengths separating them?

Edit - found the image

That was the race I thought of, race one in 2016. One of the best BTCC races I've ever seen.

There was also a fantastic Mini race in 2020, where Leo Panayiotou won by passing three cars into the final corner, before Alex Jay cut the final chicane to provisionally take the win before it was taken away: https://www.minichallenge.co.uk/2020...on-thriller-2/

And VIVA GT, is this the Mini Se7en race you were referring to?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNs5...Ns5BJM0Ahk&t=0

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Robin Marriott

I find Thruxton incredibly boring, I can’t remember a single good race and it baffles me that there’s two rounds there this year. Fingers crossed someone ends up in a field to jazz it up a bit or it’ll just be lap after lap of cars pegged to the limiter in 6th and nothing else.

So - if I present a narrative of 2021 racing at Thruxton, does it sound boring?
It reads like it had everything you are looking for in a BTCC meeting:


"Cook had to work hard for the win in the curtain-raiser as he slipped past pole-sitter Sutton and Team BMW’s Colin Turkington after last season’s top-two drivers clashed on the opening lap of the new season. Racing got off to an enthralling start – as you’d expect in the BTCC – and Cook initially seemed to lose out as his Honda Civic Type R bogged down from second on the grid. Sutton held the lead down into the Complex for the first time, with Turkington and Cook’s #66 machine running side-by-side immediately behind. As Sutton braked into the right-hander he was clipped by Turkington’s BMW 330i M Sport, and the reigning champion’s Infiniti was tipped into a spin.

Cook made the most of an opportune moment as he slipped into the lead, with the rear-wheel drive BMWs seemingly struggling for early grip. Turkington had by now dropped to fourth – behind Cook, Tom Ingram’s Ginsters EXCELR8 with TradePriceCars.com Hyundai and Hill – whilst Tom Oliphant’s BMW was spinning to the rear of the field.

The opening lap drama was far from over, however, with the most dramatic moment still to come as Ollie Jackson’s MB Motorsport accelerated by Blue Square Ford Focus wriggled through one of the quickest parts of the circuit.

Three-time champion Gordon Shedden was unable to avoid the rear of Jackson’s Ford and the Halfords Racing with Cataclean car was subsequently speared across the track and into the unfortunate Hyundai i30N of Chris Smiley. Heavy impact with the barrier followed for Shedden and the safety car was immediately deployed.

[...]

Bath-born Cook eventually took a more straightforward victory in the second contest, but not before a couple of significant incidents punctuated proceedings.

The Ford Focus of Andy Neate (Racing with Wera & Photon Group) made contact with Glynn Geddie’s Cupra Leon (Team HARD. with Autobrite Direct), whilst Jade Edwards’ Honda (PHSC with BTC Racing) was also collected as the cars ran through turn one for the first time.

All three cars made heavy contact with the barrier, as the Team HARD-run machine of Geddie barrel-rolled to an eventual standstill. The drivers involved were thankfully unharmed in the accident, but the race was immediately halted by a red flag.

The restart got underway in a similar fashion when the Toyota Gazoo Racing UK car of Rory Butcher slammed into a tyre-stack after a high-speed run through Noble, as the Scotsman battled with Hill and Ingram.

The second race of the season gradually settled, but not before pole-sitter Cook had slid through the Complex into Ingram’s Hyundai i30N, although both cars were able to continue relatively unscathed.

[...]

Sutton then splashed to a first victory of the season as the weather fell his way during a frenetic wet-dry-wet bout at the UK’s fastest circuit.

The Laser Tools Racing star was in fighting form throughout the day following two recovery drives and had already scythed his way to the front early in the reversed-grid encounter, as the vast majority of the field chose to run on Goodyear wet tyres.

Hill, Team BMW’s Oliphant and Smiley proved to be exceptions to the rule in terms of tyre choice, and when conditions improved after just a handful of laps it looked as if the trio had played a masterstroke.

The Ford Focus of Hill was particularly quick at mid-distance as he carved his way back through the order and eventually passed Sutton’s Infiniti Q50 for the lead on lap ten.

Incredibly, no sooner had Hill hit the front than the rain began to fall again on the high-speed Hampshire circuit, giving Sutton the opportunity to come back for the victory in the latter stages.

Hill was now hanging on to second with both Jason Plato (Adrian Flux with Power Maxed Racing) and Gordon Shedden (Halfords Racing with Cataclean) closing in on the final lap.

The trio went three-wide as the chequered flag fell and it was Plato who had snatched second from Hill by just 0.070s, with Shedden only 0.166s further in arrears.

It was yet another valiant effort by Hill and he was duly rewarded with the championship lead following his podium treble during this exciting season-opening weekend at the 2.36-mile circuit."

[mprmke]

Qualifying at Thruxton, if it's dry, well tell us a lot more than anything else has so far this season.

Josh Cook in a BMR Honda would, historically be the strongest package at Thruxton. If he's not right up there in qualifying, then it will show the M-SPort engine is lagging behind the others.

At a speed circuit, the balance of performance measures should hinder Ingram. If it doesn't, the hybrid BoP isn't anywhere near as effective as ballast at the moment.

If a BMW takes pole, and all/most of the BMW's are right up there, then it shows they have the strongest all-round package and will probably have BoP measures thrown at them.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by mprmke

At a speed circuit, the balance of performance measures should hinder Ingram. If it doesn't, the hybrid BoP isn't anywhere near as effective as ballast at the moment.

I'm not sure this would be the case. The hybrid deployment is most effective at lower speed, and in the early stages of traction.

I think that the high speed nature of the circuit means that the hybrid effect is negated. Circuits where HEM will have the most effect (IMO) are those that are traditionally RWD favoured - e.g accelerating from low speed corners. This would be places such as the hairpin at Knockhill or Croft.