[Official] Round 19: Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

[frostie]

Taken from my website
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Will it be Fernando Alonso, Mark Webber, Sebastian Vettel or Lewis Hamilton crowned world champion this weekend at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
Each driver has lost points during the year and each can pinpoint races where if things had gone slightly differently they could have won the title before now. All that is irrelevant though and this weekend Formula 1 witnesses a four way shootout for the world championship.

The maths of a dramatic title fight

With Red Bull boss Dietrich Mateschitz stating once more that the team will “Let the two drivers race and what will be will be. if Alonso wins we will have been unlucky. I predict a Hollywood ending. Worst case scenario we don’t become champion? We’ll do it next year. But our philosophy stays the same because this is sport and it must remain sport. We don’t manipulate things like Ferrari do.”

This approach, while admirable, is sure to cause tension in Abu Dhabi. The title fight is exceptionally close and Red Bull is courting disaster by not imposing orders upon their drivers. Their car has been the fastest throughout the year yet they come to the final race of the season trailing Alonso in the title fight. A variety of mistakes from the team, drivers and reliability issues have hampered the Milton Keyes based teams efforts but their refusal to impose orders could make winning the title much more difficult.

There are still four drivers in contention for the title and here is some of the possible title clinching scenarios for each driver.

Fernando Alonso is well placed to take a third title. Coming into this race he enjoys an eight point lead and the Spaniard can guarantee the championship by finishing first or second. In doing so the results of Webber, Vettel and Hamilton are immaterial. In fact he can finish as low as fourth and still win the title providing Webber does not win the race.

Webber can take the title with a victory if Alonso finishes third or lower. His teammate Vettel, 15 points adrift, needs a victory to have a realistic chance of taking the title. If he wins the race he needs Alonso to finish fifth or lower to become champion. This scenario would see Vettel, Alonso and Webber all equal on points but Vettel would win on the count-back of results. Webber would be removed from contention immediately due to having four wins to the five of Vettel and Alonso. Amazingly the title would be decided by Vettel having one more fourth place finish than Alonso.

It is when count-backs come into consideration that the issues from Red Bull’s publically stated stance on team orders will become clear. One possible situation that could cause the team strife would be if Alonso retires from the race and the Red Bull drivers are leading. Both drivers would know that to become champion they would need to beat the other.

With Vettel leading the race he would be crowned champion due to having one race win more than Webber. With nothing to lose and everything to gain the stance of Red Bull management could cost them the title. With no orders from the pit wall both drivers would drive as hard as they could and if Webber saw a chance for taking the lead he would have to grasp it with both hands.

Vettel would also be in a position where he was forced into defending the position as vigorously as possible and while neither would be willing to give the other an inch. With both drivers in a position where compromising is not an option a collision could occur and the team could end their season without the drivers’ title.

Lewis Hamilton is the last contender but the 2008 champion knows that his hopes are all but over. He is 24 points off the lead and needs to win with the three drivers ahead of him to fail to score to take his second title.

The Yas Marina Circuit

The Yas Marina Circuit measures 3.45 miles and has 21 corners. The pitlane if one of the most interesting ever seen in Formula 1 with the exit taking drivers under ground, at unlimited speed, before feeding back into turn three. Drivers then come down the hill into the turn five and six chicane which sees drivers braking from 190 mph. Out of six one of the first overtaking opportunities is at the slow turn seven. Drivers will need a willing partner to make the move but do not be surprised to see the likes of Kobayashi trying a move through here. Last season the Japanese rookie made a series of daring moves en route to a top six finish. This opening series of corners could play into the hands of Ferrari and Fernando Alonso.

From turn seven drivers travel down the long back straight where the racing line is funnelled into a slow speed hairpin which then leads into the long turn ten before the circuit tightens up once more. With low grip drivers will be scrambling to get the power down through a series of slow speed corners before the fast turn 15 and 16 where the Red Bull drivers should be able to stretch their legs before the final twisting section of the lap.

The end of the lap was inspired by Herman Tilke’s aim to have a “Monaco in the Middle East.” With no run off drivers need to thread the eye of a needle through the tight series of 90 degree corners under the Yas Marina Hotel before the final set of corners. Turn 20 can easily catch drivers off guard; it is much slower than expected before coming into the final corner and over the line to start another lap of this incredible facility.

What happened last year?

Last season was the inaugural Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and saw Sebastian Vettel end his season in style with a victory ahead of teammate Mark Webber with Jenson Button rounding off his title winning season with third place in Brawn GP’s last race.

The race was the scene of much fanfare with the Yas Marina Circuit setting new standards in terms of facilities and presentation and with the race running in twilight conditions drivers had the challenge of adjusting from dusk to under floodlights. The weekend started with Lewis Hamilton fastest in opening practice. The former world champion continued his strong form throughout practice and into qualifying.

Hamilton took by 0.667s ahead of Vettel after dominating the entire session with fastest times in each part of qualifying. Hamilton’s race though was short lived with the McLaren driver retiring after just 19 laps due to brake problems. The Englishman though showed his pace with the third fastest lap of the race, less than a tenth of slower than Vettel’s fastest race lap set much latter in considerably better conditions.

During the race Hamilton led from the start ahead of Vettel, Webber and Button. Hamilton was expected to open a commanding lead during the early proceedings but the Englishman was unable to do so with Vettel, Webber and Button all able to stay in contention before Hamilton came into the pits on lap 16 for his first of two scheduled pitstops.

Vettel stayed out for two laps longer and managed to get ahead after his stop. This pitstop though was far from uneventful for the Red Bull team. Toro Rosso’s Jamie Alguersuari accidently stopped in the Red Bull pit area just seconds before Vettel was due! With this drama over Vettel set about clinching the win, and second place in the world championship.

Toyota’s Kamui Kobayashi had another eventful race and came to attention for his battle with Jenson Button after the Englishman came out from his pitstop just ahead of the Japanese rookie. Kobayashi made his move on Button after the world champion ran wide coming out of turn 8. With his single pitstop approaching Kobayashi set a series of fastest lap and was actually well placed to battle for the podium.

Kobayashi was one of the few drivers choosing to use just a single pitstop and when he rejoined the track a combination of his inexperience and the penalty of a heavy car contributed to a drop in his pace and he therefore fell behind the Brawns and Nick Heidfeld.

Button was now secure in third and he set about closing the gap to Webber in second. With six laps to go he was hot on the tails of his rival but unable to make a move before the chequered flag fell.

The race was also significant as it marked the end of 2007 world champion Kimi Raikkonen’s Formula 1 career by finishing a disappointing 12th. His Ferrari teammate Giancarlo Fisichella career also ended badly after the Italian qualified last and ending the race a lap down.

The weather for this weekend

The weather has played a key part in recent races. Whether it was qualifying being put back to Sunday in Japan, the delays in Korea or a thrilling wet qualifying in Brazil rain has played a central role in adding even more drama to the championship fight.

This weekend in Abu Dhabi the weather could once more play its part in proceedings. The BBC is forecasting showers for Friday with heavy rain expected during Saturday. The rain is expected to fall during the afternoon so should be cleared away before cars take to the circuit but whatever grip is laid down will also be washed away.

Sunday though is expected to be sunny with temperatures of over 21C.

Race Preview

As has been the case throughout the year it is difficult to see who can match the Red Bull cars in terms of raw pace. 14 pole positions has given good reason to believe that the Adrian Newey designed car will once more set the pace this weekend. This weekend it is crucial for the team to achieve a 1-2 finish, with Webber leading, to guarantee a first drivers’ championship. The fact that the team has managed only four 1-2’s this season will surely cause some sleepless nights for them; even if they decide to use jet lag as their excuse!

Fernando Alonso heads to the Middle East knowing that he has the full backing of his team. The confidence he has shown in recent weeks has been a direct contrast to what has been seen at Red Bull with Mark Webber showing in Korea that the pressure is clearly immense for the contenders. Alonso’s experience of the white hot pressure of a title fight will place the Spaniard at a great advantage. The advantage is not so much when he is in the car and driving but rather when he is walking through the paddock and in interviews. He knows what it takes to be a champion, the Red Bull drivers do not.

While it should be expected for Red Bull to have the fastest car the layout of this circuit is quite balanced and could see Ferrari closely matched. The Prancing Horse has been a worthy match for the RB6 this year and the team are surely confident that with numerous long, high speed straights that the top speed weakness of the Red Bull can be exploited.

McLaren should not be discounted either. The team dominated practice and qualifying last season before a brake problem robbed Hamilton of race day pace, and ultimately caused his retirement. The Englishman loved the circuit last season and a repeat performance cannot be discounted this weekend. Jenson Button also enjoyed last year and showed great pace towards the end of the race as he closed on Webber for second, it would be foolish to write the team off entirely even if they have struggled for pace in recent races.

While the fight at the front will once more dominate proceedings the battle for sixth in the constructors’ championship will also be decided. Williams stole a march on Force India last time out and now holds a single point advantage heading to Abu Dhabi. While the fight for the drivers’ championship steals the attention of fans the battle for the lower positions in the constructors’ championship is worth millions to the teams for next year’s budgets. This money comes in the form of TV revenues and could make a massive difference to the fortunes of each team next season.

On a dark desert highway this weekend the title will be decided, it will be heaven for one and hell the rest. Will it be Fernando Alonso, Mark Webber, Sebastian Vettel or Lewis Hamilton.....

BBC Schedule

Friday 12 November

Practice one: 0855-1035, BBC Red Button/

Practice two: 1255-1435, BBC Red Button

Saturday 13 November

Practice three: 0955-1035, BBC Red Button

Qualifying: 1215-1420, BBC One

Sunday 14 November

Race: 1210-1515, BBC One

Year	Driver	Team
2009	Sebastian Vettel	Red Bull

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