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6 Oct 2018, 16:34 (Ref:3854928) | #26 | |
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The problem with what you guys are doing is calculating the odds after the fact. Nobody knew them beforehand, not the other teams either.
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6 Oct 2018, 16:34 (Ref:3854929) | #27 | ||
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Cheers F1 Guy for the intro...
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6 Oct 2018, 16:36 (Ref:3854931) | #28 | ||
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Do Ferrari have any feet left that don't have bullet holes in them?
Between Q2 and Q3 we got a shot at Hamilton's Merc with an inter on the front right. At that moment I think it was pretty unclear which way was the best. Then in the closing moments before going out it became apparent to all the teams (except Ferrari?) that it wasn't wet enough for inters and was unlikely to rain in the next few minutes. It was a bad decision. What did Ferrari have to gain or lose? They could have gone on slicks like everyone else. Then they would have been no better or worse off than any other team. They chose inters, the track was nearly dry and they looked like idiots. If rain had come in during the out lap, Ferrari might have been able to get a timed lap in while everyone else was scurrying to the pits. And that might have been the best track conditions of the session. Note the one "if" and two "mights". It really wasn't a gamble worth taking. My prediction for the close-season: Arrivabene will be sacked. |
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6 Oct 2018, 16:38 (Ref:3854933) | #29 | ||
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I disagree. They knew the odds. They just didn't know the result. Going back to ackropovic's analogy, he knows his horse is 500-1. He doesn't know if it is going to win, though he could make a fair guess.
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6 Oct 2018, 16:44 (Ref:3854937) | #30 | ||
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Quote:
With smartphone apps able to send notifications within 30 seconds of when it's about to rain, and tell you the intensity, weather forecasting software is better than ever. If I have that available to me on my phone, the teams have much more sophisticated systems available. Ferrari tried to be smarter than an already very smart system. It didn't work. |
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6 Oct 2018, 16:47 (Ref:3854938) | #31 | |
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They had no idea about the actual odds, that's impossible. How many times do racing teams get caught out by rain? It's at the moment completely impossible to predict to the minute when actual rain is going to hit the track, let alone determine if enough of it will hit for inters to be needed. You vastly overestimate the predictableness of very localized weather.
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6 Oct 2018, 17:08 (Ref:3854940) | #32 | ||
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You vastly underestimate the advances in weather technology in only the last 2-3 years. With the latest satellites capable of servicing smaller businesses rather than requiring government level budgets, there have been massive gains in the hyperlocal weather reporting. Dark Sky and Weather Underground both have bespoke systems that can take your GPS location and give you a notification to a smartphone when it's about to rain. There's probably loads more systems too - these are just two public ones which do an incredible job of hyperlocal reports and notifications. They're pretty popular with cyclists and runners trying not to get caught in rain. There is at least 1 WEC team who places spotters around the circuits and uses smartphones for the notifications, knowing someone on the south (for example) will get the notification before someone in pit lane. If WEC teams are doing it, then F1 teams are all doing it, and Ferrari tried to be smarter than everyone else and weren't. They all knew the odds, just Ferrari took the risk of everyone else being wrong. |
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6 Oct 2018, 17:13 (Ref:3854943) | #33 | ||
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280 days...... |
6 Oct 2018, 17:16 (Ref:3854946) | #34 | |||
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"If you're not winning you're not trying." Colin Chapman. |
6 Oct 2018, 17:18 (Ref:3854948) | #35 | ||
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Yes, he was at turn 5 at COTA.....
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280 days...... |
6 Oct 2018, 17:21 (Ref:3854949) | #36 | |
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Wonder if one of the spotters got it very wrong and Ferrari reacted to his incorrect information. Maybe he spilt his drink on himself and thought it was sudden rain.
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6 Oct 2018, 17:27 (Ref:3854952) | #37 | ||
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6 Oct 2018, 17:31 (Ref:3854954) | #38 | ||
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liked the intro. thanks!
quali was a mess...i guess Ferrari feel their only chance now is to do the opposite of Merc. cant say i blame them but it is all a bit desperate. |
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6 Oct 2018, 17:35 (Ref:3854957) | #39 | ||
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Should've, could've, would'ves...... It is what it is. Tomorrow's (today, technically, I guess, over there) "session" is the important one.
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6 Oct 2018, 17:38 (Ref:3854959) | #40 | ||
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also dont think ive ever seen DanRic so angry. his anger kinda made me feel i bit uncomfortable!
https://streamable.com/91d9p |
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Home, is where I want to be but I guess I'm already there I come home, she lifted up her wings guess that this must be the place |
6 Oct 2018, 17:38 (Ref:3854960) | #41 | ||||
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Quote:
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I didn't ignore what you said. I replied exactly to what you said. We agree on many Ferrari topics on this forum, but like Ferrari during qualifying, you're on your own with this one But you didn't know the odds of that happening when you posted, of course. |
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6 Oct 2018, 17:40 (Ref:3854962) | #42 | ||
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6 Oct 2018, 17:45 (Ref:3854963) | #43 | ||
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Home, is where I want to be but I guess I'm already there I come home, she lifted up her wings guess that this must be the place |
6 Oct 2018, 17:46 (Ref:3854964) | #44 | |
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6 Oct 2018, 17:52 (Ref:3854965) | #45 | |
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Yeah. And in the last 3 races, Honda engines have scored 0 points whilst Renault engines have scored...man I'm too lazy to add it up, but they've had a podium and a bunch of top 10s.
Honda do this every-so-often. Great wee session, things are looking great. And then it all resets 24 hours later. They managed a top 10 qualification at Monza - the biggest power circuit we have. Still came away with nothing. Maybe Honda will get there, but one good Q3 doesn't mean much. |
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6 Oct 2018, 18:05 (Ref:3854967) | #46 | ||
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"If you're not winning you're not trying." Colin Chapman. |
6 Oct 2018, 18:21 (Ref:3854970) | #47 | |
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To paraphrase Mark Twain... "I'm sorry I wrote such a long post; I didn't have time to write a short one." |
6 Oct 2018, 19:14 (Ref:3854975) | #48 | ||
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Unfortunate as he moves to Renault next year!
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6 Oct 2018, 19:16 (Ref:3854976) | #49 | |||
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280 days...... |
6 Oct 2018, 20:27 (Ref:3854988) | #50 | |
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At least he’ll be with the works Renault team next season, so should get the better end of the stick
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