The Historically Accurate EV discussion

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Ah , theoretical predictions ?.
In theory , a Bumblebee cannot fly .
In theory we were going to have Fusion generation 70 years ago .
In theory , an Aluminium Air battery has a very large energy density . In practice oxidization reduces it to a very short life .
Lithium Air has a high energy density , but oxidization again reduces its life to a month or two .

But no doubt there will be thousands of claims that , [ in the future ], there will be all sorts of magical improvements .

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

Ah , theoretical predictions ?.
In theory , a Bumblebee cannot fly .
In theory we were going to have Fusion generation 70 years ago .
In theory , an Aluminium Air battery has a very large energy density . In practice oxidization reduces it to a very short life .
Lithium Air has a high energy density , but oxidization again reduces its life to a month or two .

But no doubt there will be thousands of claims that , [ in the future ], there will be all sorts of magical improvements .

Aren't all new developments theory until they become reality?

Almost every technological advancement would have been seen as 'magical' by generations previous.

Unless you think we have already reached the peak of technological development and nothing more is possible, however unlikely that might seem to those unwilling to accept that change happens?

[crmalcolm]

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/n...ecome-home-evs

[Mike Bell]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/n...ecome-home-evs

Nah, they’ll never catch on.......

[crmalcolm]

Electric car emissions myth 'busted'

'Fears that electric cars could actually increase carbon emissions are a damaging myth, new research shows.'
'The researchers say average “lifetime“ emissions from electric cars are up to 70% lower than petrol cars in countries like Sweden and France (where most electricity comes from renewables and nuclear), and around 30% lower in the UK.
They say the picture for electric cars will become steadily more favourable as nations shift to clean electricity.'

[midgetman]

Surely the state of the air over major cities during this pandemic leaves anyone with half a brain in no doubt that the day of the ICE in towns should be well and truly gone. Out here in the sticks the range thing is a little more of a sticking point but we can overcome it. If I could afford it I'd have an electric car to commute to my workshop.

I admit all we're doing is moving the pollution but surely it's easier to curb emissions from a small number of power stations than thousands and thousands and thousands of cars?

I hold my hand up as a hypocrite. I run a business glorifying the ICE. If there were viable electric Karting I would try to invest in it. I would happily have an electric van if it were in my price range. One day, one day, although I fear I won't be around to see it.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Electric car emissions myth 'busted'

'Fears that electric cars could actually increase carbon emissions are a damaging myth, new research shows.'
'The researchers say average “lifetime“ emissions from electric cars are up to 70% lower than petrol cars in countries like Sweden and France (where most electricity comes from renewables and nuclear), and around 30% lower in the UK.
They say the picture for electric cars will become steadily more favourable as nations shift to clean electricity.'

You realise that story is from Harrabin & the BBC , which are one of the worst FAKE NEWS outlets especially for the Global Warming scam .

It also ignores the fact that production of the batteries alone has a massive emissions figure , about the equivalent of 6 to 8 years of running an ICE car .
But just in the day to day running EVs are often not cleaner .
https://notrickszone.com/2019/04/19/...o-25-more-co2/

And there is no way that the UK could build enough Nuclear power stations to run even a small percentage of all cars as EVs .

I wont bother again with the recent Government report which shows that total UK emissions have fallen by 75% in the last 50 years , because some people will only believe what they want to believe .

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

some people will only believe what they want to believe .

Isn't that true?

And then, when presented with something they don't like will just dismiss it as fake news.

People can be ostriches about the need to change, but sadly the ostrich might become the dodo.

[crmalcolm]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/insidec...e-milloy%3famp

Is Tel911S a pseudonym for one of the names on the list?

[Tel 911S]

The FACT that every one of the IPCC & NASA predictions about climate has proved to be wrong , the [ 97% of scientists agree ] has proved , over & over again to be a total lie , all that is left for the green scammers is to attack anybody who tries to tell the truth .
https://www.urbandictionary.com/defi...m=Ad%20hominem

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

The FACT that every one of the IPCC & NASA predictions about climate has proved to be wrong

I'm not sure how you reach the conclusion that 'every' prediction is wrong.

But it is true that there have been a lot of predictions that were inaccurate. In some of these cases, the real world situation is worse than the prediction.

https://www.climatecentral.org/news/ipcc-predictions-then-versus-now-15340

[grantp]

I would posit that most of the vehicle manufacturers do not expect to have extensive ranges of ICE vehicles for sale in the major markets by 2030.

Actually some time before 2030.

They have such a level of complexity to work through now just to deliver marginal moves towards satisfying new regulations that it seems to be quite clear that, absent some sort of engineering miracle, they are within a UNECE regulation or two of being unable to make a market for he existing products.

Moreover the punters, even at the economy end of ICE market, will find more and more new vehicles becoming increasingly expensive (for what they really offer) and beyond economic repair the first time that anything significant goes wrong. I would say about 8 years max natural life for most 2020 vehicles.

Average probably closer to 6 years.

If the global economy ends up being rather stuffed by current events and their repeats in the next 2 or 3 years even 6 years might be a bit optimistic.

For electric?

Well, we can read about incredible mileage for some Teslas - but then if used as taxis and properly maintained the same is true for ICE vehicles.

The key will be replacement battery availability. Will today's battery tech still be supportable a decade from now?

If not will people be making replacement power sources for old EVs using the new tech? Would there be a big enough market? Would there be any point?

Will most people still want to own their own transport - or simply rent something when they need it? (Subject to urbanisation developments ...)

[midgetman]

Predictions are very difficult, but I repeat my contention that trends are correct. We were told we'd have warmer, stormier winters. I work outside, I can confirm we've had them.

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[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by midgetman

Predictions are very difficult, but I repeat my contention that trends are correct. We were told we'd have warmer, stormier winters. I work outside, I can confirm we've had them.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

We were also told that by now Britain would be like Siberia .
https://realclimatescience.com/2018/...hin-two-years/

And that we would be running out of water from lack of rainfall
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47620228

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

We were also told that by now Britain would be like Siberia .
https://realclimatescience.com/2018/...hin-two-years/

And that we would be running out of water from lack of rainfall
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47620228

It is also worth presenting the context of those two articles/predictions to understand what is behind them - and how they offer no real guidance over the value of EV development or climate change forecasts.

Britain would be like Siberia - the context of this is explained in the first sentence 'A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs'.
This report will have been one of many that models possible futures no matter how unrealistic. These are then used by Defence Analysts and Planners to test their security options against these scenarios. There was probably a report at the same time that was based on a significant temperature rise too. It also provides the assumption 'Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world'. I wouldn't take this as the confirmed prediction of what was thought to be the most likely situation, but a worst case to plan against - given assumptions to conduct planning with.
Despite this - it makes good fodder for the likes of Heller (Goddard) to continue their messaging with, without explaining the context of what is published but click-baiting those who are willing to follow their 'teachings'.


running out of water - this was only a year ago and looks out 20-25 years, so I'm not sure how we can assert that this predictions is true or false yet?
It does say that a reduced supply may be one contributing factor, but is more focused on the increased demand on our existing infrastructure due to population rise. Summarising it as 'running out of water from lack of rainfall' is a far from honest appraisal of the contents of the report. Perhaps a fairer summary would be - 'increased demands on infrastructure will cause shortages, which could also be worsened if rainfall reduces.'
There is one sentence in the article which seems to have been ignored - 'The problem is the unfortunate combination of growing population and potentially shrinking supply by 2040'.


Do either of the articles say global warming is happening? - No
Do they say global cooling is happening? - No
Do they say we should prepare for the potential consequences of climate change? - Yes

If being prepared for the worst, but hoping for the best, is a philosophy that is wrong then please explain why?

In the context of this thread:
Do we need EVs? - Maybe
Should we develop EV technology? - Yes
Do we need to consider how these EVs will be charged? - Yes
Do we need to develop through-life systems for EV supply chains? - Yes
Are EVs better/worse for the environment? - Open for debate.

Why not get behind the R&D to make EVs better (for the owner, society as a whole and the environment) rather than attack the justification for them being introduced in greater numbers?

[smokystove]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Why not get behind the R&D to make EVs better (for the owner, society as a whole and the environment) rather than attack the justification for them being introduced in greater numbers?

Bingo, exactly.

I would propose an answer to your question of why people won't do that, but will for the sake of civility keep it to myself!

[grantp]

One has to consider whether investment in infrastructure (and the CO2 output from that effort) required to support the new all electric world 24/7/356 is affordable and justifiable. And delivers fitness for purpose.


So first we may need to consider future purpose. The way of life that satisfies the expectations of future generations. By the end of 2020 such expectations may be different to 2019. But for now assume they are not.

[crmalcolm]

Land Rover's mild-hybrid tech spells end for V8 diesel Range Rover

'Land Rover is set to introduce new mild-hybrid diesel engines to the Range Rover and Range Rover Sport in the coming months, effectively spelling an end to the V8 diesel, Autocar has learned.
It is understood that a 296bhp 3.0-litre MHEV unit, badged D300, will be offered on HSE, HSE Dynamic and Autobiography Dynamic trims [...]

A new, more powerful version of that same engine putting out 345bhp (badged D350) will be available in higher-end trims such as HST.
The data reveals that the new unit puts out 516lb ft of torque, giving a 0-62mph time of 6.5sec and a top speed of 140mph in the Range Rover Sport. It also claims 35.3mpg and emits 210g/km of CO2. These figures are notably improved on the V8 diesel. '

[Tel 911S]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...uilt-with-ford

Deutsche Post are shutting down their Streetscooter factory .
They took over the business in 2014 to produce electric vans for their German postal service , DHL & Swiss postal delivery as well as a load ordered by Amazon .
Tens of thousands built but they are now closing the business down . No doubt the greens will blame everything else , but the simple fact is the vehicles were not up to the job . Frequently , [ especially in cold weather ] , the vehicles could not get back to the depot at nights .
Because the product is not a success , nobody wants to buy the electric vehicle business , so Deutsche Post / DHL is shutting it all down .

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...uilt-with-ford

Deutsche Post are shutting down their Streetscooter factory .
They took over the business in 2014 to produce electric vans for their German postal service , DHL & Swiss postal delivery as well as a load ordered by Amazon .
Tens of thousands built but they are now closing the business down . No doubt the greens will blame everything else , but the simple fact is the vehicles were not up to the job . Frequently , [ especially in cold weather ] , the vehicles could not get back to the depot at nights .
Because the product is not a success , nobody wants to buy the electric vehicle business , so Deutsche Post / DHL is shutting it all down .

Why will the greens be blaming something - and why make it an attack on 'greens' - whoever they might be?

A product is launched, does not turn out to be as successful as hoped, and production ends. The same thing happens with ICE-powered vehicles all the time, this is no different.
The technology is not the issue here - as clarified in one sentence in the article - 'From 2021, it will buy electric vans from other manufacturers.'



Less than a month later - 'Volkswagen Amarok discontinued'

VW are shutting down their Amarok production line.
They retooled their factory in 2010 to produce the ICE-powered pickup for their European market customers.
Hundreds of thousands built but they are now closing the production line down. No doubt the sceptics will blame everything else, but the simple fact is the vehicles are no longer fit for purpose.
Because the product is no longer a success, nobody wants to buy the vehicle in sufficient numbers, so VW is shutting it all down to build electric vans instead.



I appreciate there is a lot more to both articles - but you can see how circumstances can be twisted to fit your narrative if you approach issues with a blinkered approach.

[GORDON STREETER]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

'Land Rover is set to introduce new mild-hybrid diesel engines to the Range Rover and Range Rover Sport in the coming months, effectively spelling an end to the V8 diesel, Autocar has learned.
It is understood that a 296bhp 3.0-litre MHEV unit, badged D300, will be offered on HSE, HSE Dynamic and Autobiography Dynamic trims [...]

A new, more powerful version of that same engine putting out 345bhp (badged D350) will be available in higher-end trims such as HST.
The data reveals that the new unit puts out 516lb ft of torque, giving a 0-62mph time of 6.5sec and a top speed of 140mph in the Range Rover Sport. It also claims 35.3mpg and emits 210g/km of CO2. These figures are notably improved on the V8 diesel. '

In all fairness does "anyone" really need a vehicle like that ?
Why I say that is I drive around a fair bit here and in Spain and there are speed restrictions on all roads, Most of the UK roads are overcrowded and I normally always get to my destination in the same time as everyone else !

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by GORDON STREETER

In all fairness does "anyone" really need a vehicle like that ?

Probably not - but then how many vehicles on the road are designed around 'need'?

What it does show is that the EV/hybrid technology is continually advancing, and makes it more viable than pure ICE in a lot of circumstances currently.
The vehicle (and its characteristics) might not be a necessity, but it does fulfil a desire.

More performance, less pollution and cheaper to run compared to it's predecessor - what's not to like?

[GORDON STREETER]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Probably not - but then how many vehicles on the road are designed around 'need'?

What it does show is that the EV/hybrid technology is continually advancing, and makes it more viable than pure ICE in a lot of circumstances currently.
The vehicle (and its characteristics) might not be a necessity, but it does fulfil a desire.

More performance, less pollution and cheaper to run compared to it's predecessor - what's not to like?

I see your point, however I can get to the same destination for 70=80k cheaper

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by GORDON STREETER

I see your point, however I can get to the same destination for 70=80k cheaper

Yeah - who ever needed one of these:




**about 150,000 people apparently**

[smokystove]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...uilt-with-ford

Deutsche Post are shutting down their Streetscooter factory .
They took over the business in 2014 to produce electric vans for their German postal service , DHL & Swiss postal delivery as well as a load ordered by Amazon .
Tens of thousands built but they are now closing the business down . No doubt the greens will blame everything else , but the simple fact is the vehicles were not up to the job . Frequently , [ especially in cold weather ] , the vehicles could not get back to the depot at nights .
Because the product is not a success , nobody wants to buy the electric vehicle business , so Deutsche Post / DHL is shutting it all down .

Not sure where you get the information that "frequently in cold weather the vehicles could not get back to the depot at night" from.

Especially seeing as they never got out of the test-phase here in Germany.

DHL/Post bought this start-up, put up a factory in Düren to construct them and built about 10.000, many of which were sold to smaller companies in Europe and in Japan .

They did not however manage to put them into use themselves.

In 2019 they discontinued the project for financial reasons after investing hundreds of million Euros , stating that they weren't equipped to be an automaker and that competition such as the E-Vito and E-Sprinter from Daimler which appeared since the development of the Streetscooter were more effective, being larger capacity to carry goods amongst the reasons.

In fact they sold the company back to the people who first developed it, who with all the newfound R&D now see more potential for the project.

This all from the local german newspapers which you can read and translate for yourself.

Even the article you've quoted yourself offers much of this information but seems you are intent on your own "interpretation".