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16 Jun 2022, 17:15 (Ref:4115924) | #1 | ||
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Teammates comparison 2022
Well... it is about... comparison of teammates...
Code:
BA SA AU ER MI SP MO AZ GRID RACE TOTAL VER-PER 10 01 10 11 11 11 00 01 = 5-3 5-3 10- 6 55% Equality LEC-SAI 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 = 8-0 6-2 14- 2 99.6% Utterly busted! HAM-RUS 11 00 10 00 10 00 00 00 = 3-5 1-7 4-12 92% Almost busted So, "10" in Emilia Romagna for Red Bull means Verstappen was better in qualy (I DON'T BOTHER with mini race's positions grid!) while Perez was better classified in the (proper) race. GRID: scores in qualy RACE: scores in races TOTAL: sum of the two Percentage: In an approx statistical alaguage, probability (or degree of certainty) that the driver ahead is really ahead (and not just by random chance). I add a descriptive text to help to interpret thos probabilities: -- Utterly busted: the driver behind performed worse with virtually total certainty (no bad luck excuses!). -- Busted: the driver behind performed worse almost surely. -- Almost busted: the driver behind is nearly being busted. -- Advantage: the driver ahead probably is performing better but not yet without a "reasonable doubt". -- Equality: the minor differences can be easily due to random events. I get the info in a slightly convoluted way in FORIX (convoluted because I try to save time and effort) so I hope there are not errors but... I would be happy if someone see any anomaly and tell it here. I love true data and hate false data (well, "hate" is a bit exaggerated word here). In a future I could increase the number of teams to compare. But I am notoriously unreliable in my schedule, so who knows? |
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17 Jun 2022, 06:05 (Ref:4116004) | #2 | |
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Thanks so much, Schummy. I would love to spot anomalies, as you say, but I'm in no position to present you with anything other than false data. Surprised to see Verstappen and Pérez on equality. My initial reaction would've been that Verstappen would be clearly shading him, albeit not busting him like I guess he did eventually last season.
I guess Ricciardo is totally busted. |
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17 Jun 2022, 09:10 (Ref:4116032) | #3 | |
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I always like looking at these so thanks for doing it again.
I guess for me the question is do we have enough data to make a meaningful statistical analysis yet. For Max and Checo they are on "equality" currently but IF Max had lasted 1 lap more in Bahrain and Checo 1 lap less they would be 11-5 rather than 10-6 which is quite a swing statistically. |
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17 Jun 2022, 14:55 (Ref:4116104) | #4 | ||
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Oh, 11-5 and 10-6 are statistically very similar. Imagine throwing 16 times a coin, and repeating the experiment several times. Just by chance you would get a lot more variability than that,however the coin is exactly the same in all those experiments.
Sorry if I extend my babbling a bit more but I think it is an interesting point. (^_^)' We, humans (and perhaps some users who are AIs in disguise :-p ), tends to be biased to perceive patterns where there is not more than randomness. Luckily. cold math calculations can save us of this king of bias of our mind. So, 4-12 for Hamilton is rare to be observed by chance if LH and GR were equal. It could still happen, so Hammy is "Almost busted". However, Sainz's 2-14 is almost impossible to be gotten between two equal teammates just by chance. Thus, he is "Utterly busted": he is surely performing worse than Leclerc and not by bad luck alone. |
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17 Jun 2022, 15:01 (Ref:4116106) | #5 | |||
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Quote:
Yeah, perhaps the two surprises of the season are HAM-RUS and VER-PER. Very interesting couple of teams. It is also interesting to see the faces of Wolf and Horner in certain moments when they are caught off-guard by camera :-D . The current narrative is not what they expected/wished, although Horner position is more pleasant! One of my next team to watch is McLaren! However, I am afraid data are going to bring bad news for "Ricky". |
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23 Jun 2022, 03:05 (Ref:4116682) | #6 | ||
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After Canada:
Code:
BA SA AU ER MI SP MO AZ CA GRID RACE TOTAL VER-PER 10 01 10 11 11 11 00 01 11 = 6-3 6-3 12- 6 76% Advantage LEC-SAI 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 00 = 8-1 6-3 14- 4 97% Busted! HAM-RUS 11 00 10 00 10 00 00 00 11 = 4-5 2-7 6-12 76%(*) Advantage NOR-RIC 10 11 11 11 10 01 11 10 00 = 7-2 5-4 12- 6 76%(*) Advantage "Surprisingly", Ricky is not doing so badly. LOL, he is like Hamilton vs Russell!! Maybe Toto will begin to search for a replacement for 2023? (My personal candidate would be Schiff.) Now, Red Bull, Mercedes and McLaren are in the same state (12-6). In every case, the stronger driver needs at least three GPs to bust his teammate, so, they are safe in the short term. |
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21 Jul 2022, 11:12 (Ref:4120018) | #7 | ||
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Updating just before La France!
Code:
BA SA AU ER MI SP MO AZ CA GB AT GRID RACE TOTAL VER-PER 10 01 10 11 11 11 00 01 11 10 11 = 8-3 7-4 15- 7 87% Advantage LEC-SAI 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 00 00 11 = 9-2 7-4 16- 6 95% Busted! HAM-RUS 11 00 10 00 10 00 00 00 11 11 01 = 5-6 4-7 9-13 48% Equality NOR-RIC 10 11 11 11 10 01 11 10 00 11 11 = 9-2 7-4 16- 6 95% Busted! -- Verstappen went on edging Perez -- Sainz somewhat continues braking a bit his fall. -- Lewis continues his clear counterattack and just reached the "Equality" label. -- Lando continues acting as his uncle Chuck, crushing poor Ricky. Now Ricciardo is as busted as Sainz... and it is not a good thing. If Max won 2-0 Sergio in the next two races (Qualy and Race), he will have "busted" him. I have the idea to incorporate Renault... sorry, I mean Alpine, and Haas (aka Ogregüntherhaus, ok he is not from GER/AUT but still... ). |
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26 Jul 2022, 15:16 (Ref:4120564) | #8 | ||
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Update after France.
Code:
BA SA AU ER MI SP MO AZ CA GB AT FR GRID RACE TOTAL VER-PER 10 01 10 11 11 11 00 01 11 10 11 11 = 9-3 8-4 17- 7 94% Almost busted LEC-SAI 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 00 00 11 10 = 10-2 7-5 17- 7 94%(*) Almost busted(*) HAM-RUS 11 00 10 00 10 00 00 00 11 11 01 11 = 6-6 5-7 11-13 16% Equality NOR-RIC 10 11 11 11 10 01 11 10 00 11 11 11 = 10-2 8-4 18- 6 98% Busted!
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30 Jul 2022, 06:49 (Ref:4120917) | #9 | ||
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A complementary couple of graphics.
The first one is the evolution of (the first three) team scores in the first 12 races (until France). I have considered normal races, not sprint races and I have graph'ed a smoothing moving average showing the long term performance rather than the particular points in each race. That way it is easier to see trends.
It's important to take in account that all those calculations are done smoothing the particular results in each race to extract the theoretical performance in each time. |
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2 Aug 2022, 14:49 (Ref:4121543) | #10 | ||
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Update after Hungary.
Code:
. BA SA AU ER MI SP MO AZ CA GB AT FR HU GRID RACE TOTAL VER-PER 10 01 10 11 11 11 00 01 11 10 11 11 11 = 10-3 9-4 19- 7 97% Busted! LEC-SAI 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 00 00 11 10 00 = 10-3 7-6 17- 9 83% Advantage HAM-RUS 11 00 10 00 10 00 00 00 11 11 01 11 01 = 6-7 6-7 12-14 15% Equality NOR-RIC 10 11 11 11 10 01 11 10 00 11 11 11 11 = 11-2 9-4 20- 6 99.1% Utterly busted!! .
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2 Aug 2022, 14:59 (Ref:4121546) | #11 | |
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Charles hasn't beaten Sainz since Miami. The form has flipped around.
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2 Aug 2022, 15:05 (Ref:4121547) | #12 | |
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Sainz has been the stronger driver of late, however Charles is probably still quicker on raw speed. But both are being held back by Ferrari not doing great of late
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2 Aug 2022, 15:32 (Ref:4121556) | #13 | ||
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I think FIA should mandate Ferrari's strategist go to Red Bull, Merc's go to Ferrari and RedBull's to Merc.
We would have an excellent end of the season. |
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3 Aug 2022, 11:51 (Ref:4121671) | #14 | ||
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96 days... |
3 Aug 2022, 14:34 (Ref:4121688) | #15 | ||
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There was an interesting comment (can't remember where I read it ) that said Sainz is acting like the more complete driver at Ferrari - he's the one questioning strategy calls from the cockpit and trying to guide the team. I'd be inclined to agree with that at the moment.
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4 Aug 2022, 09:38 (Ref:4121765) | #16 | |||
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Quote:
In the moment i see it similar...Leclerc is better on raw talent and speed, but sometimes isn't really feeling experienced... |
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4 Aug 2022, 12:18 (Ref:4121774) | #17 | ||
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Is Lecler the "Bagnaia" (Ducati, MotoGP) of Ferrari? :-)
Recently, the boss of Ducati said Bagnaia, apart from his qualities, still lacked a bit of maturity as a rider. We know... crashes while in top positions, many poles, less points than he should have,... Maybe Charles should be adopted by Carlos Sainz Sr. for a while. I think he would teach Charlie one or two things about racing and life ;-) . Curiously, they would be a family where all of them are named "Carlos" (the mother probably is named Carla). |
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5 Aug 2022, 14:57 (Ref:4121897) | #18 | ||
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Quote:
I think a few of us have said that, I know I have. When Ferrari signed Sainz, I think they got more than they knew. I mean, he showed up at his first day at work early in the morning at the factory and they had to figure out stuff for him to do! |
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