[BTCC] BTCC 2021

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by thetool

Other than the aforementioned Sutton, every championship has been won by WSR or Dynamics,

Not quite strictly true, you're forgetting Jordan's title - of the 9 championships that have been won by NGTC cars, the teams running those were:

WSR x3
Dynamics x3
Eurotech x1
BMR x1
Laser Tools x1

[thetool]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Not quite strictly true, you're forgetting Jordan's title - of the 9 championships that have been won by NGTC cars, the teams running those were:

WSR x3
Dynamics x3
Eurotech x1
BMR x1
Laser Tools x1

Not forgetting. Jordan was in a Dynamics built car with a team that was assisted by Dynamics. Yes I know Mike Jordan and Eurotech did the actually engineering and running the car at the weekends, but they had Honda engines straight from Neil Brown on par with the factory team and also had full data access across all four cars. And as you categorise above, the other two are Sutton.

[antnee]

Originally Posted by thetool

The model of car does not matter. How many more times does this have to be shown?

Look at the Infiniti, VW or Audi if you need examples. Put the right driver and engineer together and you can be successful.

Dynamics don't win all the time because the Honda Civic is somehow the perfect car for NGTC. They win all the time because they have the best engineers and team management and enough money to run the cars properly. Same goes for WSR.

Sutton is an exceptional driver an the only driver outside of the few really top teams to win the championship. And that was because of the outstanding job he has done in assembling a team around him. He essentially brought the team running his Q50 to Moffat, not the other way round.

It really is all about the team running the car. Other than the aforementioned Sutton, every championship has been won by WSR or Dynamics, and for as long as one or both are still competing, or another really top team comes in from elsewhere (like RML for example) then I don't see that changing.

If the model of car didn't matter, then why are 22 of the 29 cars starting this season been launched since 2019? Why has the A-Class, CC, Fk2 Civic and S3 all been retired this winter - all have won races.

The car gets you a race win, the engineer gets you the championship.

[thetool]

Because whilst the model does not matter, the age of the chassis does. And after a while you run into eligiblity problems with new builds of models that are not being produced anymore, as well the more practical problems of sourcing donor shells and/or full road vehicles as teams such as HARD do.

For example, in Europe the Volkswagen Passat CC (which then became just the Volkswagen CC) has been out of production for five years. I'm not sure how strong the market is for spare parts, as it wasn't exactly a huge seller.

[Alfisti]

I'll keep my two cents short and to the point: I've never raken Speedworks particularly seriously - they've been there or thereabouts but frankly even with Tingrams skill the best they will ever achieve is race wins, not a hope in hell of a championship.

Can Excelr8 challenge for a championship? No, not at this stage. BUT I do believe that with the driver line up and considerable talent within their stable that they can become genuine contenders. Give them a year or two and I can see them being genuinely in the mix.

Having said that Colin, Flash and Ash are going to be the three fighting for the championship this year, nobody else has a chance in my books.

[3marinadrive]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

I'll keep my two cents short and to the point: I've never raken Speedworks particularly seriously - they've been there or thereabouts but frankly even with Tingrams skill the best they will ever achieve is race wins, not a hope in hell of a championship.

Can Excelr8 challenge for a championship? No, not at this stage. BUT I do believe that with the driver line up and considerable talent within their stable that they can become genuine contenders. Give them a year or two and I can see them being genuinely in the mix.

Having said that Colin, Flash and Ash are going to be the three fighting for the championship this year, nobody else has a chance in my books.

Interesting opinion...agree they are likely to be the main three, but the ONLY three? History tells us BTCC is nothing if not unpredictable....too early to say about a few teams who have yet to show what they can do...Butcher and Ingram are both good enough to win Independent titles and several races...Cook can be as quick as anyone, and without punctures and some questionable choices the Ford was a seriously strong at times last year, so maybe Hill finally has the right package to be in the mix. Will be fascinating as always

[porsche962fan]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

Having said that Colin, Flash and Ash are going to be the three fighting for the championship this year, nobody else has a chance in my books.

will be interesting if/when Butcher will help out Shedden otherwise he will sleep on the couch in the living room

Colin will have a real chance only if WSR really cracked up their wet setup woes

[Sodemo]

Yea the bmw has never gone well in the wet.

[Moneyseeker]

Originally Posted by thetool

Because whilst the model does not matter, the age of the chassis does. And after a while you run into eligiblity problems with new builds of models that are not being produced anymore, as well the more practical problems of sourcing donor shells and/or full road vehicles as teams such as HARD do.

For example, in Europe the Volkswagen Passat CC (which then became just the Volkswagen CC) has been out of production for five years. I'm not sure how strong the market is for spare parts, as it wasn't exactly a huge seller.

Yep and most of the older cars have taken a battering and eventually that leads to unreliability. Most of the new car builds are to take account of the hybrid regs coming in.

[Moneyseeker]

Originally Posted by 3marinadrive

Interesting opinion...agree they are likely to be the main three, but the ONLY three? History tells us BTCC is nothing if not unpredictable....too early to say about a few teams who have yet to show what they can do...Butcher and Ingram are both good enough to win Independent titles and several races...Cook can be as quick as anyone, and without punctures and some questionable choices the Ford was a seriously strong at times last year, so maybe Hill finally has the right package to be in the mix. Will be fascinating as always

Butcher is quick and has been improving but still prone to the odd error and off weekend and as the BTCC is so tight, they can be costly, as Colin found at the final round.

One bad weekend or even one bad race 1 in a weekend can make all the difference, the margins are so slim,

[antnee]

Originally Posted by thetool

Because whilst the model does not matter, the age of the chassis does. And after a while you run into eligiblity problems with new builds of models that are not being produced anymore, as well the more practical problems of sourcing donor shells and/or full road vehicles as teams such as HARD do.

For example, in Europe the Volkswagen Passat CC (which then became just the Volkswagen CC) has been out of production for five years. I'm not sure how strong the market is for spare parts, as it wasn't exactly a huge seller.

Parts supply is not an issue - we all know that teams buy road cars and strip them. There are just shy of 400 CCs listed on Autotrader currently.

[S griffin]

The other problem is after time, some cars can’t be developed anymore and they need to be replaced

[thetool]

Not true at all. The FK2 Honda is one of the very earliest NGTC cars built. Put Shedden in one for 2021 and he'd be competing for the championship.

[medius]

Originally Posted by thetool

Not true at all. The FK2 Honda is one of the very earliest NGTC cars built. Put Shedden in one for 2021 and he'd be competing for the championship.

To be fair though, compare the designer/builders of the chassis. Team Dynamics are far better engineers than Team HARD. Apart from when Warren's BMR cheques took control of the CC's the car have never been anything more than regular mid-pack mediocrity fodder.

[thetool]

Originally Posted by medius

To be fair though, compare the designer/builders of the chassis. Team Dynamics are far better engineers than Team HARD. Apart from when Warren's BMR cheques took control of the CC's the car have never been anything more than regular mid-pack mediocrity fodder.

That's entirely my point.

[peebee2]

Originally Posted by S griffin

The other problem is after time, some cars can’t be developed anymore and they need to be replaced

Rubbish, these are road cars converted to virtual silhouettes and balanced.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by S griffin

The other problem is after time, some cars can’t be developed anymore and they need to be replaced

Originally Posted by thetool

Not true at all. The FK2 Honda is one of the very earliest NGTC cars built. Put Shedden in one for 2021 and he'd be competing for the championship.

S Griffin's point is backed up by comments from in the paddock.

Whilst it might be true that Shedden would be competing for the championship in 2021 if he was driving a Civic FK2, he would have a better chance in an FK8.

Team Dynamics have repeatedly stated that the FK2 was developed as far is it could be, and that a new model (FK8) allows them to develop further.

Shedden (Mar 21): "There are a lot of areas of small improvements [over the FK2]. It's just a nicer car to drive. It does everything you want it to, whereas the FK2 you had to hustle more. That only comes with evolution."

[AnnoyedMoose]

Originally Posted by antnee

Parts supply is not an issue - we all know that teams buy road cars and strip them. There are just shy of 400 CCs listed on Autotrader currently.

And what parts do they need anyway other than a few body panels? Nothing else on the car has anything to do with the road car anyway.

[thetool]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

S Griffin's point is backed up by comments from in the paddock.

Whilst it might be true that Shedden would be competing for the championship in 2021 if he was driving a Civic FK2, he would have a better chance in an FK8.

Team Dynamics have repeatedly stated that the FK2 was developed as far is it could be, and that a new model (FK8) allows them to develop further.

Shedden (Mar 21): "There are a lot of areas of small improvements [over the FK2]. It's just a nicer car to drive. It does everything you want it to, whereas the FK2 you had to hustle more. That only comes with evolution."

Find me a quote of any driver, in any series, from any year, before the start of the season saying that, actually, the car I had last year (or X years ago) was better than the one I have this year. You can be pretty naive at times.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by thetool

Find me a quote of any driver, in any series, from any year, before the start of the season saying that, actually, the car I had last year (or X years ago) was better than the one I have this year. You can be pretty naive at times.

But he's not saying the FK8 is a better car, just that with the evolution from the initial FK2 design, it has more room for development (or that the FK2 had reached the end of development).

What you are missing is that during homologation, certain characteristics of a car are then 'locked in' for the life of that model.

That is why, when Laser Tools/BMR switched to the Q50, they went through the homologation process again (narrowly completing this before the model was removed from sale). This meant that they have a 'newer' car to develop, rather than the car that was homologated prior to the 2015 season.

The 9th-Gen Civic ended production in 2017, and so if further development was to be made with that model the homologation process would need to be completed again with a new design. Rather than do that, TD went through homologation with the 10th-Gen Civic, which is the model they run today.

This finite scope of development was also referred to by Shaun Hollamby in April 2019, who stated that "It's still a current model for [the Next Generation Touring Car] regulations but obviously we want to keep moving onwards and upwards so if we saw a benefit with a different make or model then it'd be worthwhile us doing something about it. With the FK2, what I would say is that it is definitely a car that I can see two or three more years of competitive racing."

Motorbase also made many public comments around the time of their switch to the Mk4 Focus - again based on the scope for further development with a new model. "The new car is a big step forward on the older Ford Focus RS mainly in terms of drivability. Wherever we go the car seems to be in the window or very close to it and only requires little set up changes to find the sweet spot."

BTCC teams employ some very talented engineers, and they are always learning ways to extract more performance from the cars they race. Sometimes this needs development of a car, but this scope reduces as a model develops through its life, due to the initial design as-homologated. Eventually, the limits of that development are reached, or become so marginal that the return is minimal. At this time, the best way to develop further is to move to a new model. There have been many ways this has been achieved in the BTCC:

Federico Turrata and Antonio Carrozza have shown that sometimes this can be achieved by submitting a new design of an existing model for homologation.
Motorbase achieved this by moving to the next generation of the same model.
WSR achieved this by moving to a different model in the range.

What all three have demonstrated - and should be clear to nearly everyone - is that a move to a newly-homologated design is the best option to increase your potential for development of a race-winning NGTC car in the BTCC.

[S griffin]

Even though some models can go on for several series, there comes a time they should be replaced and quite right too, otherwise we would end up with a historic series

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by S griffin

Even though some models can go on for several series, there comes a time they should be replaced and quite right too, otherwise we would end up with a historic series

Yes - agree with the sentiment behind this.

Although for that to happen, there has to be an incentive for the teams to make the change. Fortunately for us, Dave Bartrum and Bob Moffat have both explained exactly the reason (having no manufacturer incentive to switch models):

Bartrum: "Despite our 10 years running the Fords we don’t have an official relationship with the manufacturer itself so, from the outside, there is no real reason why we would go with Ford again. Ford has, however, had the new car out for over a year now so we started to evaluate the chassis. The new Focus is far from just a minor upgrade. Underneath the skin, it seems to be an ideal fit for the BTCC. It has an extremely different chassis with some very advanced approaches to the design. The new car has obviously got a few years on its predecessor and benefits from a few more years of development and understanding. The base car is a decent step on and hopefully, this will show in the new car."

Moffat: “We realised that we had the makings of a good car with the Infiniti, but it wasn’t going to be that [older] car. Antonio Carrozza put in a lot of work; he designed a new version and worked on it with chassis-builder Willie Poole and the TOCA technical team. We were aware that the Q50 wouldn’t be sold after the start of 2020, but we got the homologation done, so it’s fine. To be honest, five years is long enough for any car. After that, it’s going to be tired and it will need a change.”

Which also tells us that the last season we can see an Infiniti Q50 on the grid is 2024.

[peebee2]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Yes - agree with the sentiment behind this.

Although for that to happen, there has to be an incentive for the teams to make the change. Fortunately for us, Dave Bartrum and Bob Moffat have both explained exactly the reason (having no manufacturer incentive to switch models):

Bartrum: "Despite our 10 years running the Fords we don’t have an official relationship with the manufacturer itself so, from the outside, there is no real reason why we would go with Ford again. Ford has, however, had the new car out for over a year now so we started to evaluate the chassis. The new Focus is far from just a minor upgrade. Underneath the skin, it seems to be an ideal fit for the BTCC. It has an extremely different chassis with some very advanced approaches to the design. The new car has obviously got a few years on its predecessor and benefits from a few more years of development and understanding. The base car is a decent step on and hopefully, this will show in the new car."

Really? Do you expect him to be honest and say the old shells are knackered but if we get some new ones in I can blag bigger budgets because of the claimed improvements.

If they were such a move forward, why weren’t they any quicker than the old cars.

And nobody thinks the FK8 is quicker than the FK2. Seriously!

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by peebee2

If they were such a move forward, why weren’t they any quicker than the old cars.
And nobody thinks the FK8 is quicker than the FK2. Seriously!

BTCC Lap Records:
Thruxton - Q 2020 FK8, R 2020 Corolla
Snetterton - Q 2019 Corolla, R 2019 FK8
Silverstone - Q 2020 FK8, R 2019 330i
Knockhill - Q 2019 FK2

So the FK8 holds 3 lap records for current circuits on the calendar, the FK2 holds one - but the FK8 is not a quicker car?

Of the nine circuits on the calendar, looking at Q and R lap records, only the following have been set prior to 2019:
Brands Indy (R lap record S2000 Civic)
Brands GP
Oulton (Q only)

The evidence suggests that the newer models are quicker.

[Sodemo]

I think its fair to say that when the FK8 came out in 2018 it perhaps wasnt the world beater the FK2 was, but over the last 3 years it has certainly improved a lot.