Nissan LMP1 Discussion

[pirenzo]

I didn't notice the puddles the first time I watched, and to be honest I still can't see anything at 0:57. The puddle at 0:44, in the middle of the "Porsche Curves" is a big one though. You can hear him lift off and coast through it.

Nissan said themselves that they kept the wet tires on for longer than normal because of the puddles, but surely they'd have ripped them to shreds on a track that dry? I think it was probably on slicks in this video.

[TF110]

The water (at least I think its water) at :57 is to the right. Looks like the end of the lap on the straight, probably not a hinderance.

[Gingers4Justice]

Chrystal Ball prediction - Could Nissan be Porsche's unintentional rear gunners at Le Mans?

With Porsche's package and their 8MJ of power cranked up to full, they're favourites to get pole at Le Mans. I was imagining in my head what the first few laps might look like next year, and I was thinking that even if Nissan are barely faster than the Rebellions, their straight-line speed could really upset some of the big guns in the opening stages of the race.

I expect the pace in qualifying to be Porsche comfortably fastest, with Toyota and Audi about the same, with at least two Nissans out qualifying the number 12 Rebellion. Now I know for some that would be a disaster for Nissan, but let's think about this - the tires are cold at the beginning of the races and the drivers, although they're fired up, are putting all their concentration on keeping it on the grey stuff (when was the last time you saw a serious front-runner make a mistake in the opening few corners?). As a result, the privateer P1 cars often look hot on the tails of the factory cars even at the first Mulsanne chicane.

But by this point next year, this is where the Nissans should be. Imagine they're 7 or 8 seconds a lap slower than the cars in front - most of that time will be lost in sector 3, I imagine (where the Audi will probably be strongest). But that's a long way off at this point of the lap. We expect the GTR-LM Nismos to be quickest in a straight line, and so long as they've kept it on the road, I can't see how at least one of them won't overtake an Audi or a Toyota before the first chicane. How much faster could really depend on how much of a pain they make themselves.

It's basically the end of Arnage before the Nissan's predicted weaknesses really come into play. This is probably where Porsche will be laughing - off they drive into the sunset while the other factory cars are held up by the Nissans doing P2 speeds around the area of the circuit where it's very difficult to overtake.

Of course it won't be long before all the Porsches, Audis and Toyotas will have the Nissans eating their dust, but that first lap could really mess up someone's race.

That's probably all nonsense, but I'm just typing out my thoughts...

[J Jay]

We saw at Silverstone that the R18 can go round the outside of a car doing P2 speeds in the twisties so I'm not sure that part holds up. I'd also contend Audi and Toyota qualifying at roughly the same pace, although your point about them being next to each other (and therefore behind the Porsches) at the start still stands.

I can see this happening, but I don't think the net effect will be that big or that it will ruin someone's race unless it leads to an accident.

[Gingers4Justice]

Originally Posted by J Jay

I can see this happening, but I don't think the net effect will be that big or that it will ruin someone's race unless it leads to an accident.

"Ruin someones race" might be a stretch far, but what I mean by that is that with 8 cars in with a reasonable chance of victory, it's going to take virtually a perfect race to win it this year. It will be all the little losses of time which decide the way the race is going to go. This sort of stuff can decide which safety car you fall behind, and that's how gaps can snowball without the chasing car necessarily being slower.

For example, if at Silverstone the #17 Porsche hadn't had issues with the transmission and hadn't retired, the #7's stop-and-go would have lost the race. And all of a sudden, Truswell's point about the R18s losing quite a bit of time by not pitting under the FCY turns into an internal investigation at Audi.

My point probably doesn't reflect too well on Nissan though. I'm sure they didn't come to Le Mans simply to be another variable in the races of the other three manufacturers.

These cars are also going to be a nightmare to lap as well.

[pirenzo]

Actually looking at Toyota's current performance I'm starting to wonder whether Nissan can't give them something to think about at Le Mans. I expect Toyota will still be stronger in the race, if only because they're better prepared and have experience on their side.

Porsche and Audi are going to be comfortably ahead judging by Silverstone and Spa qualifying.

[miatanut]

Originally Posted by Gingers4Justice

That's probably all nonsense, but I'm just typing out my thoughts...

Or not. It all depends on how sorted they can get this car. A design that cleans-up on the straight, for easy, low-risk passes even if it gives the time back on the twisties, may be a mediocre qualifying car but a really good racing car on a track with lots of traffic.

Originally Posted by J Jay

We saw at Silverstone that the R18 can go round the outside of a car doing P2 speeds in the twisties so I'm not sure that part holds up. I'd also contend Audi and Toyota qualifying at roughly the same pace, although your point about them being next to each other (and therefore behind the Porsches) at the start still stands.

I can see this happening, but I don't think the net effect will be that big or that it will ruin someone's race unless it leads to an accident.

That's the thing. Yes, an Audi can get around a P2 in the twisties, but it always comes at some risk. We've seen Audis go out because the driver wasn't patient.

[miatanut]

Originally Posted by Gingers4Justice

These cars are also going to be a nightmare to lap as well.

It just means a car will have to lap them four times to finally get the job done.

That could be another factor. Driver annoyance at having to work hard at a pass, only to have the passed car blow by easily on the next straight. That cuts both ways though, and I think the most likely story of the race is the Nissans get taken out by impatient drivers.

[TF110]

Originally Posted by pirenzo

Actually looking at Toyota's current performance I'm starting to wonder whether Nissan can't give them something to think about at Le Mans. I expect Toyota will still be stronger in the race, if only because they're better prepared and have experience on their side.

Porsche and Audi are going to be comfortably ahead judging by Silverstone and Spa qualifying.

But Toyota will also have their LM package, they dont at Spa. Nissan should be good on tire wear and the wet, though!

[J Jay]

Originally Posted by Gingers4Justice

"Ruin someones race" might be a stretch far, but what I mean by that is that with 8 cars in with a reasonable chance of victory, it's going to take virtually a perfect race to win it this year. It will be all the little losses of time which decide the way the race is going to go. This sort of stuff can decide which safety car you fall behind, and that's how gaps can snowball without the chasing car necessarily being slower.

They can also "even themselves out" over the course of a race for all of the other factory cars. With the reliability improvements alone the winner will almost certainly need to run without accident or mechanical issue but I think there's scope to not be silly and divebomb any car, GT-R or GTE-Am.

Originally Posted by miatanut

Yes, an Audi can get around a P2 in the twisties, but it always comes at some risk. We've seen Audis go out because the driver wasn't patient.

Driver annoyance at having to work hard at a pass, only to have the passed car blow by easily on the next straight. That cuts both ways though, and I think the most likely story of the race is the Nissans get taken out by impatient drivers.

You can argue the "driver attitude" both ways for Nissan and the other factories. To my mind these are the possibilities:

- Nissan drivers are told not to get into heated battles because the engineers need as much running (data) as possible before something breaks OR Nissan drivers are told to push as hard as they can so the engineers can see what is happening at the limit because something is expected to break anyway
- The other factories want to get the Nissans out of the way ASAP and are willing to get rough to make sure as little time is lost as possible OR the other factories don't want to take too many risks because they know that the Nissans will snap back and that they may not have much further to run anyway

Another point in my rambling - we're all talking about a scenario where Porsche have a considerable top speed gap to Audi & Toyota which Nissan neatly fit in, but I'm not sure this is necessarily the case. We saw last year that come Le Mans (and all the extra special preparations that go with it) the top speeds weren't that far apart - even with the improvements this year I don't think they'll be too far apart again in the race, where if you use more hybrid energy in a couple of large bursts you've got less left for the rest of the track, leading to a slower lap time. If Nissan are a nuisance to Toyota & Audi they could just as well be a pain to Porsche as well.

[miatanut]

Originally Posted by J Jay

You can argue the "driver attitude" both ways for Nissan and the other factories. To my mind these are the possibilities:

- Nissan drivers are told not to get into heated battles because the engineers need as much running (data) as possible before something breaks OR Nissan drivers are told to push as hard as they can so the engineers can see what is happening at the limit because something is expected to break anyway
- The other factories want to get the Nissans out of the way ASAP and are willing to get rough to make sure as little time is lost as possible OR the other factories don't want to take too many risks because they know that the Nissans will snap back and that they may not have much further to run anyway.

That's the scientific analysis. I was thinking the driver emotion angle, from working hard to pass that #%$&*! thing, only to have it breeze by on the next straight and having to do it all over again would, in the heat of battle, dominate over reason.

[J Jay]

Originally Posted by miatanut

That's the scientific analysis. I was thinking the driver emotion angle, from working hard to pass that #%$&*! thing, only to have it breeze by on the next straight and having to do it all over again would, in the heat of battle, dominate over reason.

Yeah I can see that, and we have seen it more than a few times in the past, but with the Nissans here to stay for the forseeable future I hope that if the other drivers do find themselves in this position they would be professional enough to hold their frustrations in check. The GT-R is a unique proposition on-track and regardless of ultimate pace if it runs well enough the other factories will have to prepare their drivers for dealing with it.

[Artur]

How close would you guys expect GT-R LM be to the 2014 LMP1s? I would think their car could be some couple of seconds slower than Audi, Porsche and Toyota's cars, from last year.

Given they massively improved this year, I think Nissan's new concept might put them some 6 to 8s slower than the other manufacturer, at Le Mans, this year. I hope people understand if that happens and that it won't be that embarassing considering it's a totally new concept.

[miatanut]

Originally Posted by Artur

How close would you guys expect GT-R LM be to the 2014 LMP1s? I would think their car could be some couple of seconds slower than Audi, Porsche and Toyota's cars, from last year.

Given they massively improved this year, I think Nissan's new concept might put them some 6 to 8s slower than the other manufacturer, at Le Mans, this year. I hope people understand if that happens and that it won't be that embarassing considering it's a totally new concept.

At Le Mans, they had better be on pace with the 2015 other cars. This car is a Le Mans special. It could be expected to struggle at COTA, particularly not running at the planned 8MJ with AWD, which was supposed to allow the back tires to help push it out of corners. Le Mans is lots of straight line speed, which is what this car was designed for.

[GTfour]

Considering the fact that the GT-R LM's are just only running in the 2MJ hybrid set up and seeing the speeds they allready achieve with this, I wouldn't be surprised at all to actually see them throw some sticks in the plans of the other three. My guess is that, since they know the hybrid system is far from working the way they want, they've put all their testing efforts into developing the ICE to the max, reliabillity wise.
Now didn't Audi win last years race virtually without their 2MJ hybrid system in the closing stages of the race?

If ever there's been a dark horse, it's the Nissans for Le Mans 2015...

[Articus]

Nissan is hardly a darkhorse in my eyes.. I'm simply not expecting to see any of the 3 cars running at the end of 24 hours. Project is too new.

[pirenzo]

Originally Posted by Artur

How close would you guys expect GT-R LM be to the 2014 LMP1s? I would think their car could be some couple of seconds slower than Audi, Porsche and Toyota's cars, from last year.

Given they massively improved this year, I think Nissan's new concept might put them some 6 to 8s slower than the other manufacturer, at Le Mans, this year. I hope people understand if that happens and that it won't be that embarassing considering it's a totally new concept.

I was thinking they'd be a tad closer than that, maybe 4-5 seconds and on the coat-tails of Toyota, but looking at how the gaps have stretched out as Audi and Porsche race their new Le Mans aero kits I think your estimate is nearer the mark. I still think Toyota will be within reach however.

Also they're inevitably going to have reliability issues, and with such an inexperienced driver line up there is going to be trouble with backmarkers too.

I do think they will get a car to the finish though, even if they spend an hour in the pits and end up many laps behind.

[gustavobamba]

Because i´m just a BIG FAN of Endurance racing this is just my opinion/wish/predictions OK


Porsche 3:16/7 at Pole and 3:19/20 race pace

Audi 3:17/8 at Pole and 3:19/20 race pace

Toyota 3:18/9 at Pole and 3:19/20 race pace

Nissan 3:25/26 at Pole and 3:29/3:30 race pace

[J Jay]

OK!

Those predictions look pretty good to me. I wouldn't change much - maybe Toyota a little slower (but we haven't seen the LM spec yet), maybe Nissan a little faster but the times are sensible.

[jswarde]

[QUOTE=GTfour;3532774]Considering the fact that the GT-R LM's are just only running in the 2MJ hybrid set up:

GTfour: I am not sure that you can say that Nissan running in 2mJ is a FACT: Nissan have not yet made any announcement and the recent Topgear interview/reports strongly suggest that the Nissan's most recent test runs have been made at well over 2mJ; perhaps close to 6mJ. The report that the flywheel is running at over 52000 RPM means that the 8kg flywheel is capable of delivering the best part of 1mJ. With 6 harvest/delivery opportunities per lap that puts the Hybrid capable of running in the 6mJ class.

Also the reports suggest that they have run at 1000hp from the flywheel in the car. Of course I do not expect them to run at 1000hp hybrid at Le Mans but they can easily derate the power without adjusting the energy storage; e.g. run the 1mJ down at 700hp for 3 or 4 seconds during each acceleration boost.

They have many choices to make; they could improve reliability by running the flywheel slower than 52000 RPM to fit the 4mJ category and also they could select a maximum power rating anywhere from a few hundred hp up to the 700hp that would be required to achieve the publicised total output of 1250hp. It will be a major failing if they are actually restricted to running in the 2mJ category. I expect them to run at least at the 4mJ category.

The photographs of the Flybrid unit in the car suggest that it is designed for 2 flywheels; if they have been able to run with 2 flywheels then running in 8mJ category cannot be ruled out: now that would be a surprise!

The major choice they have already made is not to fit the RWD capability which is one reason that they are unable to run at the "hoped for" really high power levels.

[GTfour]

Good to hear they haven't commited themselves to any MJ class yet. That makes for a whole lot more possibillities. Nice.

[wolfhound]

1000bhp through the front wheels?

[jswarde]

Originally Posted by wolfhound

1000bhp through the front wheels?

wolfhound; 1000hp through the front wheels is not that outrageous when you think they were aiming at up to 2000hp via AWD. The skinny rear wheels would not be planned to take the majority of the power.

Reports suggest that they have been driving with 1000hp+ via FWD.

[cokata]

Originally Posted by gustavobamba

Because i´m just a BIG FAN of Endurance racing this is just my opinion/wish/predictions OK


Porsche 3:16/7 at Pole and 3:19/20 race pace

Audi 3:17/8 at Pole and 3:19/20 race pace

Toyota 3:18/9 at Pole and 3:19/20 race pace

Nissan 3:25/26 at Pole and 3:29/3:30 race pace

The pace at spa was about 4 seconds per lap quicker, and while most of the improvement this year is in downforce, i would still expect 6 second improvement at Le Mans especially considering the new run off at the Porsche curves. 3:15 seems very doable in favorable condition.

[miatanut]

Originally Posted by gustavobamba

Because i´m just a BIG FAN of Endurance racing this is just my opinion/wish/predictions OK


Porsche 3:16/7 at Pole and 3:19/20 race pace

Audi 3:17/8 at Pole and 3:19/20 race pace

Toyota 3:18/9 at Pole and 3:19/20 race pace

Nissan 3:25/26 at Pole and 3:29/3:30 race pace

The car designed specifically for Le Mans, for low drag, straight line speed 10 seconds off the pace? How confident are you in that prediction?

There is every reason to believe they will suck at the rest of the schedule, until they get their KERS and AWD functioning as planned, but I'll make my own prediction:

Nissan takes fastest race lap at Le Mans, but none of the cars finish.