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20 Aug 2018, 02:03 (Ref:3844871) | #3176 | |
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Find me some vehicle releases planned for after 2020 that is a hybrid AND is not already on the drawing board. Every European manufacturer has already announced that pure EV is what they are going to release. There may be some in the process of being made but after that it will be EV only.
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20 Aug 2018, 02:56 (Ref:3844877) | #3177 | ||
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This is a serious question (as I don’t know the answer), but what is the length of a vehicle or platform design lifecycle? Meaning, once they put pen to paper (design, or even research), how long until the car hits the showroom floor? I suspect that most platforms that we will see in 2020 and just beyond are well under development today. I frankly don’t know much about this topic, but quick Google searches shows manufacturers clearly saying they plan to get into the EV market in a big way, but at times they blur the lines between pure electric only and a combo of pure EV and hybrids. For example, I found one from Mercedes which stated a blended approach and that includes plans for 2022 and maybe beyond. What I expect is to be an ongoing reduction in pure hydrocarbon engines, ongoing growth in hybrid and a large growth in full electric. Also, a lot needs to happen between now and 2020 such as a charging infrastructure that rivals our current fueling infrastructure. 2020 is not far away. Pure EV will be a growing market, but it will be a phased introduction with gas/diesel, hybrid and full EV coexisting. Richard |
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20 Aug 2018, 03:03 (Ref:3844878) | #3178 | |||
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The replacement for the SL. Both planned for early next decade, both confirmed by Mercedes as Hybrid powered. Both not in design yet. |
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20 Aug 2018, 03:45 (Ref:3844879) | #3179 | ||
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Can anyone predict when the Electric Highways needed to traverse big, sparsely settled countries like Canada, Australia, parts of both North and South America, Asia, Russia etc will have outlets at frequent enough intervals to suit even advanced battery EVs?
If you are a grey nomad sitting in Broome WA in an EV and want to go somewhere best of luck! |
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20 Aug 2018, 04:06 (Ref:3844880) | #3180 | |||
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20 Aug 2018, 04:52 (Ref:3844882) | #3181 | |||
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EVs are the future but hybrids have a very long future outside the cities. Going back to my earlier post in reply to Casper I would repeat that hybrids have effectively given F1 a stay of execution. There are powerful influences that see the sport as ecologically unsustainable. The long term problem is coming up with a set of future rules that will regain the interest of people who do not see the auto as their personal transport or an engagement in sport. |
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20 Aug 2018, 06:26 (Ref:3844887) | #3182 | ||
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20 Aug 2018, 12:08 (Ref:3844958) | #3183 | ||
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20 Aug 2018, 15:34 (Ref:3845008) | #3184 | ||
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so i certainly agree that the world market place is far to diverse for one solution to work everywhere and that the costs of converting, updating, or building new infrastructure to satisfy an all EV future is still way to high (and fraught with too many unknowns) for there to be any industry consensus on what the best solution going forward is.
the market will decide and probably not in a way any of us can anticipate. until that point though, i dont really see what is wrong with F1 pursuing a thermally efficient hybrid model. of course there is a cost issue here, but for me i see that as more of a problem of FOM's financial model and this desire for F1 engine manus to have their customer teams directly and indirectly subsidize their R&D programs (beyond the scope of the prize money they already take). if they want to develop a hybrid engine and use it in F1 i think thats great...but surely if they want a return on this investment they have (as a massive multinationals) the ability to sell cars to recoup their input costs. for example, if Merc sell all 300 units of their hybrid Project One car (which i think they may have already) for 3mill per then thats close to 1 billion they will make. so they clearly have the ability to monetize their research without having to resort to dragging Williams or Force India over the coals for their engine supply. i dont mind complicated engines or technology i just dislike their pricing models in F1. and of course that brings us back to the topic of cost caps! |
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20 Aug 2018, 15:45 (Ref:3845011) | #3185 | |||
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My point is that even if we were to revert to a "simple" NA V8/V10 engine, much of what they have learned with the current spec can't be forgotten. So if the engineers from today could time travel back to the days of the NA V8 engines, I expect they would create better solutions using even technology from that era. And it would also be costly. This also goes with my prior comments in that they will spend as much as the sponsorship provides. So even a simple formula might remain expensive "if" the R&D costs is viewed as productive by those with deep pockets. I know its not a popular concept here and many say "can't be done". But I say... give it a real try. Richard |
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20 Aug 2018, 22:37 (Ref:3845088) | #3186 | |
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The gains made in fuel consumption reduction in ICEs are pretty insane the last 5-6 years even. Take a sideways glance at the current Toyota LMP1 which is the fastest (legal ) LMP prototype ever made around every track it goes to. And it does that while consuming a ridiculously low amount of fuel and with incredible efficiency. F1 engines are slightly worse in that regard but that's mostly just a difference in sporting regulations rather than a technical reason. The current crop of F1 cars are not the fastest but definitely the most efficient.
I would go so far as to say the past 5 years there have been way more gains made in ICE technology than EV technology. I mean, VW for example spends like 4 billion on R&D a year, only a fraction of that is spent on EVs. Oh, they also announced 9 new 'electric vehicles' for 2020. But only two of those are EVs, the others are hybrids. |
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21 Aug 2018, 20:27 (Ref:3845276) | #3187 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I found this article interesting.
https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/c...a-lot/3161292/ Especially the perspective of the drivers (or some of the drivers) who don't drive for Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull. The following quote, at some level I guess I knew this, but it is still shocking to read the statistic in black and white (I added the bold)... Quote:
Anyhow, look out for potential B Class champion Nico Hulkenburg! Also, Alonso would have won two races and been on the podium five times! Richard |
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21 Aug 2018, 20:48 (Ref:3845278) | #3188 | |
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This is one of the reasons Fred left. Autosport does it’s own class B championship on the website. Quite frankly, you can’t blame the top three teams for giving it their all, but at the same time, it would be good to see more teams at least closer to them, as more competition at the top would be very healthy for the series
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21 Aug 2018, 21:08 (Ref:3845284) | #3189 | |
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all those poor old drivers in cars that can't win, why don't they just sod off and get a winning drive in the blancpain gt series
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21 Aug 2018, 22:43 (Ref:3845294) | #3190 | |
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I do wonder though. How many times have there been more than three teams capable of wins and podiums in F1 during a stretch of years? I might be wrong about this but I think eras of dominance by one or two teams are the norm, not the exception.
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22 Aug 2018, 01:59 (Ref:3845307) | #3191 | ||
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Curious to know about podiums though. |
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22 Aug 2018, 10:26 (Ref:3845352) | #3192 | ||
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7ZjkoJgXWk If I had my bet I would say range extenders will be a transition design as it makes way more sense to design a very efficient small compact motor that operates at a constant speed and load than have a large IC motor to take over when the batteries go flat. A motor operating in a fixed range will be optimised for fuel efficiency and emissions and have a huge range as well but this does not appear to have been taken up yet in light passenger vehicles while truck fleets are all over it. |
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22 Aug 2018, 10:32 (Ref:3845353) | #3193 | ||
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22 Aug 2018, 10:54 (Ref:3845355) | #3194 | ||
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2008-2012 - Tesla start to become noticeable with the first roadster and everyone shrugs their shoulders but companies are now admitting they were dabbling around in the same territory. 2012 - Tesla launch their sedan and the world starts to take notice and the big manufacturers decide s**t is getting real but they have no way to catch up until 2019/2020. 2014'ish - they know only way they can get onto the bandwagon is Barstardize existing cars into hybrids as a temporary measure so they start doing that. Those cars will be obselete at the beginning of the present decade and their totally new EV production will be introduced into the market about then. 2017 - The Chinese told the manufacturers to get their act together as they require about 25% total electric car production by 2022???, about then but I can't be bothered to look it up. In effect the world motor industry is about to reinvent itself for the first time since it came into being. Guess what, every motor manufacturer wants in to the Chinese market so they have to comply as they can see that their western production plants can't keep up and they need Chinese production capacity, witness the latest barney between Tesla and the Chinese government. https://www.google.com.au/search?cli...UTF-8&oe=UTF-8 Meanwhile while all this is going on various governments and cities are starting to clamp down on diesel and also petrol motor use in various areas from mid next decade. And people in various fora around the world are denying that all this is happening and shoving the head in the sand saying the world is going to end. You've got to love the internet. If you want to make some money buy European manufacturer shares and Lithium mining. |
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22 Aug 2018, 11:02 (Ref:3845356) | #3195 | |
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Yep, all designed in the last 5 years. How many hybrids do you think they will be currently designing for release in the next decade? My guess is zero.
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22 Aug 2018, 12:20 (Ref:3845363) | #3196 | ||
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Saying "Show me cars that are not on the drawing board yet" is ridiculous. You yourself said that cars are designed over 5 or so years. Car manufacturers don't announce that far ahead. So what you're asking for is proof that cars that haven't been announced yet, exist. But aren't on the drawing board. I don't get it. Anyway, hybrids aren't going away any time soon. I'm a big supporter of EVs, but we're decades away from having the infrastructure to cope with a full country of them. |
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22 Aug 2018, 14:40 (Ref:3845389) | #3197 | ||||
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2020 is far too close for it to be an EV-only market. And there will be new hybrids, that are not even planned yet, that will appear after 2020. The examples given are exactly what you said didn't exist - cars that are not in design yet, but will be released after 2020? Last time I checked, MB were a European Manufacturer? Full EV may appear in time, but we may also see an alternative come along that trumps EV before it gains exclusivity. |
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22 Aug 2018, 14:49 (Ref:3845393) | #3198 | ||||
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22 Aug 2018, 14:53 (Ref:3845394) | #3199 | |
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Range extenders have the issue that when you're running off the power than the generator is creating for you, that it limits your speed quite drastically. Range extenders also have the problem that if you're going on the idea that you need it "just in case", then you're lugging around a large electric generator, using up energy, for no gain the majority of the time.
The range extender generator is about safety and not being stranded. It is, in itself, not a concept for a full vehicle. It's to calm down range anxiety. |
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22 Aug 2018, 21:33 (Ref:3845464) | #3200 | ||
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The demand to show hybrids are dead seems like a personal desire to demonstrate they are right more than accurate. In the US the big 3 and Toyota are all working on or in the case of Ram have announced new booster hybrid systems for their light duty trucks. There are also future models of current cars to be hybrid and EVs so not sure where the hybrid is dead is coming from. The newly announced cars will all be EV because the hybrids exist already and aren't due for a refresh for a while, hell Nissan just rolled out their new Leaf a couple years ago after years with the old model and that's your target EV. Cars take time and NO ONE EVER announces a car until the last possible moment, why say in 5 years you'll see this, and then be stuck in a schedule and a look. Announce a plan and then work to the goal, and no one other than Tesla had said EV only, they're all covering all their bases with at the very least hybrid and EVs. |
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