Rumours 2022 Silly Season - Page 13

bathurst77 · 9 Sep 2021, 21:38 (Ref:4072867)

Be good to be 63 this weekend he can just kick back and enjoy the rest of this year,
He has nothing to prove and zero expectations on him. He has done enough to sew up the best seat next year and we all know his car this year barks..

Just go out, do a hot qually, and if you get a top ten start or finish youre a legend, and if you dont.. not his fault. |

Nothing really is at stake for the rest of this year. No pressure, just enjoy yourself and do you rbest

Next year "shid gets real"

Skam85 · 9 Sep 2021, 23:21 (Ref:4072876)

Quote:

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

I do - and that was without any real analysis as such. Mainly based on the fact that Ricciardo has been absent from the podium for 64 of his last 66 starts.

Looking at the statistics a bit more closely, Ricciardo has had 31 podiums in his career - none of them have been on the same occasion as a driver taking their first win. And since 2018, the periodicity of his time on the podium is decreasing.

Then looking at WDC winners in history - since 1980 alone, Rosberg, Senna, Prost, Räikkönen, and (depending on how you view the team) Button have all taken a WDC in their first season with a new team.

Do I think either is likely? Far from it. But I think there is more chance of a WDC for Russell in 2022, than Ricciardo being on the podium for his first win.

Good points.

I'm sure we can agree if a podium has GR winning and DR in 2nd or 3rd it was probably a good race - and a GR WDC next year also means a pretty cool season too.

Skam85 · 9 Sep 2021, 23:23 (Ref:4072877)

Quote:

Originally Posted by peebee2

But I’m in the paddock, not your bedroom.

People who constantly have to tell others on an anonymous internet forum that they are a paddock insider, are not a paddock insider.

You're becoming a bit of a troll in all honesty and it's getting quite tiresome.

Although maybe you always were, I haven't paid much attention to your posting until recently.

Skam85 · 9 Sep 2021, 23:23 (Ref:4072878)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greem

I'll give it a crack

Assuming (due to non confirmation of races yet):

20 drivers
22 races (as scheduled for 2021, but subject to change)

DR has a 3/20 chance of being on the podium in any position at any race. If we factor in GR's position being 1st (so statistical chance being 1/20), that comes down to 2/19 as there's one driver removed from the equation - George. Assuming the number of drivers stays the same throughout the season, those ratios stay the same.

So at any given race, we have:

GR 1st: 1/20 (p=0.050)
DR 2nd or 3rd: 2/19 (p=0.10526)

Taken together, that gives us a probability of 0.050 * 0.10526: p=0.00526

Meaning that for any given race, there's a half a percent chance that GR will win and DR on the podium.

HOWEVER

It gets a bit more complicated when we factor in the length of the season. George's chance of being on the top step of the podium for the first time gets better as the season progresses.

Before the season starts, he has a chance in 1/22 races (p=0.45450)
After race 1, the chance is 1/21 (p=0.04761)
After race 2, the chance is 1/20 (p=0.05000)
and so on, until the final race where his chance per race is 1/1 (p=1.0000)

HOWEVER AGAIN!

This has to be combined with the "any given race" probability, which was half a percent (give or take), which gives:

Race Percent chance
1 0.02%
2 0.05%
3 0.07%
4 0.10%
5 0.12%
6 0.14%
7 0.17%
8 0.19%
9 0.22%
10 0.24%
11 0.26%
12 0.29%
13 0.31%
14 0.33%
15 0.36%
16 0.38%
17 0.41%
18 0.43%
19 0.45%
20 0.48%
21 0.50%
22 0.53%

Not as high as you might think!

My maths is probably wrong though...

Brilliant! I knew someone here would be able to do this.

peebee2 · 10 Sep 2021, 07:26 (Ref:4072897)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skam85

People who constantly have to tell others on an anonymous internet forum that they are a paddock insider, are not a paddock insider.

You're becoming a bit of a troll in all honesty and it's getting quite tiresome.

Although maybe you always were, I haven't paid much attention to your posting until recently.

Not really, on this thread I just posted a couple of things I heard out of the paddock that seemed to have good credibility.

It’s frustrating to be sarcastically rubbished by a keyboard warrior or two who frankly seem to have no idea how the sport actually works, and whose ideas of what will happen are controlled by who they’re fans of rather than having any basis in reality.

**Aysedasi** · 10 Sep 2021, 08:05 (Ref:4072900)

Quote:

Originally Posted by peebee2

Not really, on this thread I just posted a couple of things I heard out of the paddock that seemed to have good credibility.

It’s frustrating to be sarcastically rubbished by a keyboard warrior or two who frankly seem to have no idea how the sport actually works, and whose ideas of what will happen are controlled by who they’re fans of rather than having any basis in reality.

There's actually a really easy way to deal with this. You say you have insider knowledge, which is always a great thing to have, so simply tell us - even in general terms - what role you have in the paddock.....?

Anyopenroad · 10 Sep 2021, 08:22 (Ref:4072902)

Quote:

Originally Posted by peebee2

But I’m in the paddock, not your bedroom.

Personally I would value your insider knowledge much more if you could find a way to be less of a dick while conveying it.

peebee2 · 10 Sep 2021, 08:45 (Ref:4072903)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

There's actually a really easy way to deal with this. You say you have insider knowledge, which is always a great thing to have, so simply tell us - even in general terms - what role you have in the paddock.....?

Thanks. I’m under the overall Team Manager, primarily managing staff and organising day-to-day.

peebee2 · 10 Sep 2021, 08:46 (Ref:4072904)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anyopenroad

Personally I would value your insider knowledge much more if you could find a way to be less of a dick while conveying it.

Ok, noted. I find the bedroom warriors hard to bother with, but they love to rubbish others though which I respond to.

VIVA GT · 10 Sep 2021, 09:15 (Ref:4072906)

Quote:

Originally Posted by peebee2

Thanks. I’m under the overall Team Manager, primarily managing staff and organising day-to-day.

A Team Manager just for Overalls, that must be a huge organisation!

(Just my bit of fun, please don't be offended

)

peebee2 · 10 Sep 2021, 09:20 (Ref:4072907)

Quote:

Originally Posted by VIVA GT

A Team Manager just for Overalls, that must be a huge organisation!

(Just my bit of fun, please don't be offended

)

You jest - managing the crew clothing is an enormous job!

crmalcolm · 10 Sep 2021, 09:30 (Ref:4072908)

' I’m under the overall Team Manager, primarily managing staff and organising day-to-day.'

You'll need to provide more detail, if Great Uncle Bulgaria Coburg is in charge, it sounds like you might be Bungo? If so - don't take everything Tobermory says as gospel

You can't be Tomsk because he runs the night-watch, not day-to-day. Maybe Madame Cholet is amongst us?

Greem · 10 Sep 2021, 09:40 (Ref:4072915)

Quote:

Originally Posted by peebee2

You jest - managing the crew clothing is an enormous job!

Can confirm - a mate of mine is a Williams truckie and when he first started he was astounded by the amount of clothing!

ascarracinguk · 10 Sep 2021, 09:50 (Ref:4072918)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greem

Can confirm - a mate of mine is a Williams truckie and when he first started he was astounded by the amount of clothing!

Really? of all the teams, id have thought Williams would have the least amount of clothing with GR never wearing a top.

Anyopenroad · 10 Sep 2021, 10:29 (Ref:4072920)

Quote:

Originally Posted by peebee2

Ok, noted.

billy bleach · 10 Sep 2021, 19:29 (Ref:4072975)

Quote:

Originally Posted by peebee2

Ok, noted. I find the bedroom warriors hard to bother with, but they love to rubbish others though which I respond to.

Under the Team manager - all sounds a bit Hollywood casting couch to me

steve nielsen · 10 Sep 2021, 20:50 (Ref:4072985)

Quote:

Originally Posted by S griffin

Alfa is more than a sponsor. It’s the name of the car/chassis too

But they don't own the team

gert · 11 Sep 2021, 20:00 (Ref:4073141)

Quote:

Originally Posted by steve nielsen

But they don't own the team

Does Mercedes own their team?
Does Alpine?

Hawkwood · 12 Sep 2021, 07:11 (Ref:4073212)

Quote:

Originally Posted by gert

Does Mercedes own their team?
Does Alpine?

Those 2 are brands owned by the team owner (same as Aston Martin), so completely different to a sponsor.

peebee2 · 12 Sep 2021, 08:52 (Ref:4073216)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hawkwood

Those 2 are brands owned by the team owner (same as Aston Martin), so completely different to a sponsor.

Mercedes are not the majority owner of the team.

Aston Martin is actually only a sponsor deal.

Hawkwood · 12 Sep 2021, 10:45 (Ref:4073223)

Quote:

Originally Posted by peebee2

Mercedes are not the majority owner of the team.

Aston Martin is actually only a sponsor deal.

The owner of Aston Martin is the (co)owner of the team, differentiating it from Alfa Romeo's sponsorship deal, as AR have no such ownership interest in Sauber.

Mercedes aren't any sort of owner, they are a brand of an owner, which is what I said. Co-owners are still owners.

Anyopenroad · 12 Sep 2021, 10:58 (Ref:4073224)

It's all just points on a spectrum though, isn't it? Only 4 teams - Ferrari, Haas, Williams & McLaren - can genuinely claim a clear line from genesis to current team incarnation and even they have gone through ownership changes. All the rest are fake names in one way or another.

Greem · 12 Sep 2021, 11:39 (Ref:4073229)

Does it *really* matter that much to people what the ownership structure of F1 teams is/was/might be in future?

peebee2 · 12 Sep 2021, 11:45 (Ref:4073230)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greem

Does it *really* matter that much to people what the ownership structure of F1 teams is/was/might be in future?

Apparently some objected to my use of the word Sauber, even though it is the actual name of the business.

peebee2 · 12 Sep 2021, 11:48 (Ref:4073231)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hawkwood

The owner of Aston Martin is the (co)owner of the team, differentiating it from Alfa Romeo's sponsorship deal, as AR have no such ownership interest in Sauber.

Lol, Aston Martin owns zero of the F1 team.

Stroll owns 17% of Aston Martin.

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