Button to stay

[steve_r]

Originally Posted by CTD

I'm sorry to say, but Button was signed because of money - most likely because he took a huge pay cut!

If it was down to saving a few quid, they would have not signed 2 WDC's, but instead they would have signed Magnussen, whose salary has widely been reported as 1/24th what Button earned, plus one other.

Button no doubt took a pay cut in his new contract, but it will not be lower that what they could have paid KM.

[CTD]

Originally Posted by steve_r

I thought Perez was unlucky not to get a second year with McLaren. When compared to Button, on the face of it Perez seemed to fare better than Magnussen did. Certainly in terms of points scored anyway. I appreciate that not everyone will agree with me on this.

Button is widely regarded as lacking slightly in terms of qualifying pace, yet out ranked Magnussen in qualfying, who is supposedly faster according to these mysterious "empirical data" reports that no one can actually produce.

Confused.

Having said all that, I genuinely think Magnussen has a good future in F1. It's a shame that there are so few seats available.

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/formula1/30328327

They had intended to retain Magnussen, 22, on the basis that the team's data had suggested he was fractionally quicker and had youth and promise on his side.

[CTD]

Originally Posted by steve_r

If it was down to saving a few quid, they would have not signed 2 WDC's, but instead they would have signed Magnussen, whose salary has widely been reported as 1/24th what Button earned, plus one other.

Button no doubt took a pay cut in his new contract, but it will not be lower that what they could have paid KM.

I'm not saying that Buttons salary is below what Magnussen was offering. I'm that the choice of drivers wasn't taken on raw performance, but more a question of marketing and money.
The fact that Dennis and Boullier both supported Magnussen, shows this.

[Quartermiler]

We seem to be ignoring the facts here: Jenson beat KM in the championship and in qualifying.

He also brought big money to the team, via all the points he scored.

If KM had have performed anywhere near as well as JB, McLaren may well have been much further up the constructors rankings too.

So if the decision was taken out of RD's & EB's hands, then whoever made that decision, should probably become team principal, because it was a very sensible decision looking at the actual results, rather than what might be or could be KM's potential.

Jenson beat KM and the data can't possibly show anything different.

[chillibowl]

How much are they paying Button?

Originally Posted by CTD

Both Ron Dennis and Eric Boullier wanted Magnussen....

too true, who better to judge which statistics and measurements are the most relevant?

it really is a shame there are so few competitive seats.

i dont know how much they are paying JB or the terms of the Honda contract with Mclaren but it would be nice if there was a way Honda could afford to supply one of the smaller teams so there were options for the other drivers Mclaren are developing.

Originally Posted by sparkione

That's the second stupid thing you've said today.

probably not the best way to start a post.

[steve_r]

How do we know that RD and EB both wanted KM? Where did they say this?

Both were as slippery as a soap covered eel in all the interviews I saw and read, and would not give a hint either way.

Anyway, they still have KM on their books, so he may well get another chance when Alonso falls out with the team, or Button falls off his bike during a Triathlon etc. Or indeed in 2016.

[Richard C]

I really do wish Magnussen the best and I think he should continue to have an F1 career, but “all things being equal”, I find it astounding that there would be any serious consideration (see below comments regarding gambling addiction) of keeping Magnussen over Button at McLaren for 2015. I also find it odd that there is this concept of reserving the second seat for experimentation from a driver’s perspective. Why not just build two cars, with two different design, engineering and support teams? One being the proven cream of the crop and the other full of newcomers that might show promise? Oh, wait that is the model for a junior team. In top tier teams, the second seat should not be treated as a junior team. Especially given the fight for team points (position in constructor championship) and the end of year payout! The logic should be to focus on proven driver talent vs. rolling the dice. Playing it safe doesn’t move you forward and risks always have to be taken within the sport, but I think driver selection is the last place to start given its two people out of many and the performance of those two have a massive impact on the standings of the entire team.

However F1 has a fascination with trying to find the next Senna, Schumacher, Alonso, etc. It’s like the team owners have a gambling addiction, or an itch they can’t not scratch. They can’t help but to try to pull “the big one” out of the ocean of prospects. But even for that select few rookies who eventually have a legendary F1 career, I believe that their brilliance is quickly obvious and recognized. The others may very well be highly talented (and eventually journeymen) drivers who at the right moment (right team, right car, right time) are able to capitalize and win the ultimate prize. Some have had those right moments (Button 2009, Villeneuve 1997), some have come very close (Massa 2008) and others (Hulkenberg, Kubica) lots of promise and lots of bad luck. My point being that if you roll the dice, you should see that flash of brilliance within a season. If it doesn’t happen right away, it’s too expensive to keep them on in the hope it will happen next year "at the top tier". Midfield and below, there is no problem with letting them develop and keep rolling the dice.

There is also the point I raise above about “all things being equal”. Salary requirements, team budgetary issues and the potential for bringing in sponsorship money are some of the things that can impact the comparison and it appears that was the case with the Magnussen vs. Button decision. I can see how the right move would have been to go with Magnussen if part of that was going to help the team in other ways (reduced salary and/or extra sponsorship money). But apparently it didn’t work that way. I think I also read something saying that Button reduced his salary requirements. So Kudos to him for staying in for the racing and not the money (he is apparently well off regardless so it’s likely not a large loss).

This also points to the other favorite issue here (how badly F1 is broken). That if smaller teams were not failing left and right, then that would be the place for new blood at all levels (team management, design, engineers, mechanics and drivers) to enter the sport. The flashes of brilliance in a difficult (few resources) environment will allow the next Senna, Schumacher, Alonso, Newey, Bryne, etc. to be found.

If you have read this far… congratulations.

So I have nothing against Magnussen. He seems to be perfectly capable and better than most rookies at this stage of their F1 career. He very well may be much better than Button at some point in the future, but right now he isn’t (using points as the measuring stick and that is what matters). And that is even if you go with worst case scenario of Button being only a highly talented journeyman. At best he is a WDC and knows how to get it done.

I am a Button fan, but I also recognize that he is at the tail end of his career and that he is likely to not walk with the greats, but he is with out a doubt at the top of heap of the “really, really, good, but maybe not legendary” category of drivers. And depending upon your view, this is in a field of one (Alonso) and maybe a one or two more (Vettel and/or Hamilton) likely legends. Where the slew of various newer drivers fit in the historic pecking order is an unknown at this point. If news is correct of Magnussen driving for Honda in Super GT next year, or even staying with McLaren, that could be a sign that 2015 will be a “let’s see how it goes” year regarding Alonso vs. Button. With the potential of bringing Magnussen back.

I personally am excited to see how the Alonso vs. Button battle and Honda PSU situation plays out with McLaren next year. There is also a part of me that would have been very happy so see Button leave F1 and potentially drive in WEC.

Richard

[VIVA GT]

Originally Posted by Richard Casto

I really do wish Magnussen the best and I think he should continue to have an F1 career, but “all things being equal”, I find it astounding that there would be any serious consideration (see below comments regarding gambling addiction) of keeping Magnussen over Button at McLaren for 2015. I also find it odd that there is this concept of reserving the second seat for experimentation from a driver’s perspective. Why not just build two cars, with two different design, engineering and support teams? One being the proven cream of the crop and the other full of newcomers that might show promise? Oh, wait that is the model for a junior team. In top tier teams, the second seat should not be treated as a junior team. Especially given the fight for team points (position in constructor championship) and the end of year payout! The logic should be to focus on proven driver talent vs. rolling the dice. Playing it safe doesn’t move you forward and risks always have to be taken within the sport, but I think driver selection is the last place to start given its two people out of many and the performance of those two have a massive impact on the standings of the entire team.

However F1 has a fascination with trying to find the next Senna, Schumacher, Alonso, etc. It’s like the team owners have a gambling addiction, or an itch they can’t not scratch. They can’t help but to try to pull “the big one” out of the ocean of prospects. But even for that select few rookies who eventually have a legendary F1 career, I believe that their brilliance is quickly obvious and recognized. The others may very well be highly talented (and eventually journeymen) drivers who at the right moment (right team, right car, right time) are able to capitalize and win the ultimate prize. Some have had those right moments (Button 2009, Villeneuve 1997), some have come very close (Massa 2008) and others (Hulkenberg, Kubica) lots of promise and lots of bad luck. My point being that if you roll the dice, you should see that flash of brilliance within a season. If it doesn’t happen right away, it’s too expensive to keep them on in the hope it will happen next year "at the top tier". Midfield and below, there is no problem with letting them develop and keep rolling the dice.

There is also the point I raise above about “all things being equal”. Salary requirements, team budgetary issues and the potential for bringing in sponsorship money are some of the things that can impact the comparison and it appears that was the case with the Magnussen vs. Button decision. I can see how the right move would have been to go with Magnussen if part of that was going to help the team in other ways (reduced salary and/or extra sponsorship money). But apparently it didn’t work that way. I think I also read something saying that Button reduced his salary requirements. So Kudos to him for staying in for the racing and not the money (he is apparently well off regardless so it’s likely not a large loss).

This also points to the other favorite issue here (how badly F1 is broken). That if smaller teams were not failing left and right, then that would be the place for new blood at all levels (team management, design, engineers, mechanics and drivers) to enter the sport. The flashes of brilliance in a difficult (few resources) environment will allow the next Senna, Schumacher, Alonso, Newey, Bryne, etc. to be found.

If you have read this far… congratulations.

So I have nothing against Magnussen. He seems to be perfectly capable and better than most rookies at this stage of their F1 career. He very well may be much better than Button at some point in the future, but right now he isn’t (using points as the measuring stick and that is what matters). And that is even if you go with worst case scenario of Button being only a highly talented journeyman. At best he is a WDC and knows how to get it done.

I am a Button fan, but I also recognize that he is at the tail end of his career and that he is likely to not walk with the greats, but he is with out a doubt at the top of heap of the “really, really, good, but maybe not legendary” category of drivers. And depending upon your view, this is in a field of one (Alonso) and maybe a one or two more (Vettel and/or Hamilton) likely legends. Where the slew of various newer drivers fit in the historic pecking order is an unknown at this point. If news is correct of Magnussen driving for Honda in Super GT next year, or even staying with McLaren, that could be a sign that 2015 will be a “let’s see how it goes” year regarding Alonso vs. Button. With the potential of bringing Magnussen back.

I personally am excited to see how the Alonso vs. Button battle and Honda PSU situation plays out with McLaren next year. There is also a part of me that would have been very happy so see Button leave F1 and potentially drive in WEC.

Richard

A very good and detailed post. Thank you for taking the time to relay this to us all. It sort of sums up what I now know I was thinking!

[steve_r]

Yes - we are of the same mind on this.

[Teretonga]

Brilliant summary Richard.

And in hindsight bleeding obvious to all of us who have the same common sense view. I like the 'gambling addiction' view too.
It's great to be able to publicly pontificate and advise team owners on what they should do with their money.....

[Tucky]

I think part of the problem is people think McLaren have turned their back on Magnussen, which just isn't true. If they'd kicked him out of McLaren fully then I can understand people being angry, but he's still being developed and that's the most important part.

Was Magnussen ready for F1 this year? Yes and no IMO. He's certainly fast as the data shows, but he still doesn't have the race craft or ability to develop the car compared to Button that he will do in one or two years time. Working under two WC's (especially someone like Alonso) will help him stay in F1 longer than many of the rookies who have come and gone in recent years.

[chillibowl]

ever the naysayer but i am really not a fan of the disease analogy.

Originally Posted by Richard Casto

However F1 has a fascination with trying to find the next Senna, Schumacher, Alonso, etc. It’s like the team owners have a gambling addiction, or an itch they can’t not scratch. They can’t help but to try to pull “the big one” out of the ocean of prospects.

F1 is hardly unique in this. all sports teams of sufficient quality and proper management spend considerable amounts on developing talent because finding the next superstar is the whole point.

seriously, does anyone want to watch a sport that isnt actively trying to discover/develop the next Muhammad Ali?

that looking for and developing talent is considered akin to a disease is imo a shocking analogy and a concept which is anathema to sport. i must admit i am scratching my head on this one.

so im going to stop here because i dont think i can ever be made to see this any other way

[old man]

Originally Posted by bella

out of curiosity, those who think mclaren are right to keep button, did you think they were right to sign magnussen and bin off perez at the start of this season?

On the basis of results as I remember them I was not surprised and seem to recall that when signed by McLaren many felt the Mexican money that came with him was important at the time. Certainly reports say that when signing for Force India he brought €15million.

Other reports now say that RD was hoping that links to some Danish backers would help him buy back control and that was the reason for the delay in the decision. I believe this combination will get the best out of the new car and KM is kept as 1st reserve

[Teretonga]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

ever the naysayer but i am really not a fan of the disease analogy.



F1 is hardly unique in this. all sports teams of sufficient quality and proper management spend considerable amounts on developing talent because finding the next superstar is the whole point.

seriously, does anyone want to watch a sport that isnt actively trying to discover/develop the next Muhammad Ali?

that looking for and developing talent is considered akin to a disease is imo a shocking analogy and a concept which is anathema to sport. i must admit i am scratching my head on this one.

so im going to stop here because i dont think i can ever be made to see this any other way

It depends on whether or not you see an addiction as a medical disease.

Personally I don't.

It is not an affliction in the sense that a medical disease might be but an affliction that arises as a result of decisions a person makes.

Can the resulting habitual compulsion be psychologically disabling? Yes.
Should we help them? Yes.

But never lose sight of the fact that their decisions and subsequent actions led them to this point, not a amoebic or viral biological invasion of their body.

People are always ultimately responsible for their actions, even if their decisions and motivations were wrong.

[sparkione]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

probably not the best way to start a post.

Au contraire, mon brave – absolutely the right way in this case.

Look, whatever Dennis's and Bouillier's agenda, the fact remains that Jenson – as of now – is the quicker of the two candidates. Never mind quali – he knows how to race and bring home the points. He is also very marketable – very important to the team at the moment; plus he is well up on both Honda and Japanese culture generally.

He's made a pile in F1 and can well afford the pay cut, although it won't have been reduced to anything like what they would have paid KM. The sponsors love him and he will contribute hugely to the development of the 2015 car. He will also keep Ferdy honest – maybe even more than that.

It was a no-brainer all along. Good on the Arabs for pressing the point home and winning the day.

[chillibowl]

Originally Posted by Teretonga

But never lose sight of the fact that their decisions and subsequent actions led them to this point, not a amoebic or viral biological invasion of their body.

People are always ultimately responsible for their actions, even if their decisions and motivations were wrong.

im not a doctor but im pretty sure addiction is a disease but me not being a doctor is not really the point.

if you were making a list of the things that are wrong with F1, is talent development really one of those problems?

if we were talking about Ricciardo over Button would anyone be saying that Ric should get the boot. heck can you imagine how much poorer the sport would be if Ricciardo had only one year to make his mark?

we all like making these lists here but in all of the ones i have read i have never once heard anyone ever mention this notion that always looking for the next great talent is a negative.

to be fair its kind of a weird assertion to make about any sporting endeavour.

Originally Posted by sparkione

Look, whatever Dennis's and Bouillier's agenda...

isnt their 'agenda' winning races, building the best race car, developing the best race team they can.

of course there are other variables (like budgets) to consider but after all of these years i feel pretty confident that RD puts winning first. thats his agenda. Boullier also seems to like winning and has imo shown a keen eye for talent in the past. imo their wisdom shouldnt be discarded so easily.

also i question this notion of JB as the sponsor dream guy.

put KM in a Honda badge car for a year and he will become a favorite to the Japanese pubic. sponsors like TAG and Hugo Boss are loyal to the team not to Button.

in terms of commitment sponsors show to their driver of choice, Button is certainly no Alonso and to my knowledge Button has never been a guy who brings much sponsorship to his team anyways. he is friendly and has a nice smile but i am at loss to understand why he is now being touted as a sponsor magnet.

sorry if my posts are coming of angry. one of those days i guess.

[P38 in workshop]

Am I mistaken in believing that Hugo Boss are moving to Mercedes in 2015?

[gregc]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

isnt their 'agenda' winning races, building the best race car, developing the best race team they can.

Cherry picking this particular point, because really this is (or should be, at least...) the key factor in choosing a driver lineup.

The team need to score as many points as possible, as we all know where you finish in the constructors directly, and massively, affects a team's bottom line. Last year JB scored more than double the points of KM. Just on that basis alone JB had a very strong case - if McLaren had been running "two Magnussen's" last year, they would have finished well behind Force India. That's not intended particularly as a criticism of KM, incidentally, but it was JB's points that kept Mac ahead of FI.

In terms of outright pace the only guide we, as outsiders, really have to that is qualifying - and JB (just) edged KM in that area last year too. There may be mitigating circumstances in some cases, I don't remember to be honest, but even being generous to KM I would have to say they were pretty evenly matched for absolute, one lap pace.

So in a transition year, when the development effort is going to huge, do you go for the young, undoubtedly talented, but still inexperienced and prone to the odd mistake hotshot - or the driver that comprehensively beat him in the driver standings, matched/just beat him in qualifying terms, and has a vast amount of experience to bring to the development process. To me it is, and always was, a no-brainer for this year.

As for the development of KM, he will have learned a lot from last year and should be a better driver for it. A small step back this year in itself isn't going to kill his long term career - McLaren are keeping him signed up, he's got 2 world champions to learn from and when he gets back into a race seat I believe he'll be a better driver for it.

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

F1 is hardly unique in this. all sports teams of sufficient quality and proper management spend considerable amounts on developing talent because finding the next superstar is the whole point.

seriously, does anyone want to watch a sport that isnt actively trying to discover/develop the next Muhammad Ali?

that looking for and developing talent is considered akin to a disease is imo a shocking analogy and a concept which is anathema to sport. i must admit i am scratching my head on this one.

so im going to stop here because i dont think i can ever be made to see this any other way

I really get what you are saying, but I think what you are saying is a broad generalization that works in most, but not all cases. Take a team sport like baseball, or soccer. Ignore for a moment that you are still expected to work your way up via feeder series that is designed to allow the best to rise to the top, but the ability (as a coach or team owner) to put in someone totally new into the top level to see how they do is relatively easy to do. The overall risk of failure is much smaller and you might get a surprisingly positive result.

As much as we like to say that F1 is a "team" sport, for this discussion it really is an individual sport. You have two cars and two drivers per team. The impact of getting it wrong is much worse than putting someone onto the field for a few minutes to see how they do. These are generally season long decisions. So logic would say that the risk is relatively high and the potential for reward relatively low (anyone want to do the numbers regarding ratio of all F1 drivers who have come and gone to those that become legendary talent).

And I am sorry if I am giving the impression that the sport shouldn't be looking for new talent. What I am saying is that there is little reason for top level teams to play that game. It is likely an unnecessary gamble. There is plenty of up and coming talent (be it drivers, or otherwise) that lives directly below them in the grid that are a bit of a known quantity. As a spectator, we love to see the risk taking. We want to see someone rise to the occasion, or fail miserably so that we can say "see, I told you so". My comments are less about what is exciting from a fan perspective, but rather what "should" be the logical choice if put in the place of a team principle.

And I hate that my comments above are all in a discussion regarding Magnussen not getting the 2015 drive as I think he has a future in the sport.

Originally Posted by chillibowl

if we were talking about Ricciardo over Button would anyone be saying that Ric should get the boot. heck can you imagine how much poorer the sport would be if Ricciardo had only one year to make his mark?

And I would say that he is a perfect example of what I am talking about. Should he have jumped straight into a winning 2012 RBR car as his first full season F1 drive, or should he have started out in a lower level team like he did to get his feet? Clearly it worked out for him to start in a lower level team. Which is exactly as I suggested it should be. Start small, see if they can cut it or if they dazzle and show promise, they will either get snapped up by a larger team or retained by the smaller team until they improve or plateau and get pushed out of the sport. I suspect that if he had jumped straight into a 2012 RBR it potentially would have been his last year in F1! But we will never know.

Sometimes it does work out. There are few hard rules in life and my suggestions above are not without exception. Hamilton in 2007 is an example. For every Hamilton there is likely a number of others that didn't work out, and to the detriment of the team.

Anyhow, I think RBR is playing it smart. They have a driver development program and they are going about it methodically vs. placing bets on long-shots in hopes of a large payout.

Richard

[chillibowl]

points total and points gap is of course a major indicator of ability to perform. that cant be denied. but is it the be all and end all of determining who the better prospect for the following year is?

points isnt the whole story for me.

my personal belief, is that JB is better mentally suited to be Alonso's partner. not because he scored more points than his rookie team mate but because JB he has more experience with which to draw upon when partnered with a driver of Alonso's caliber and mentality. just not sure that is in the best interest of the team.

two capable drivers could also mean two divergent paths. so does having JB there ensure that all of Mclarens' ships sail in the same direction....thats why we watch

as for development, does JB do a lot of simulator work? that usually seems to be the domain of the junior driver. of course they might still have KM available to do that work but not having that same driver on track to corroborate the simulator times would, i assume, be disadvantageous from a development point of view.

anyways i have a hard time believing that a veteran like JB will be useful (or willing) in helping to set up a car in a fashion acceptable to Alonso.

time will tell if driver number 2 will be subservient to driver number 1.

[wnut]

One of the problems of comparison between two drivers like Button and Magnussen is shared data.
Maybe the rookie looks reasonably close on qualifying performance, but how good is he at setting up the car. Button's frustration at Magnussen's lack of experience and input was brought up during the season.
There is fortunately more to racing than copying your team mates settings and approaching his qualifying speed.

The points about throwing out performing drivers in pursuit of the future never will make its are well made. Paradise City and Richard.

What is the value of a championship point these days?

Guessing: 1 Billion split between teams, $500Million to long established teams, leaves $500Million divided by 19 GPs at 101 points each = $ 260552 per point.
Button scored 126 points to Magnussen's 55 i.e. Button earned McLaren $ 18.5Million dollars more than Magnussen in the same car.

[Scooter185]

McLaren "young drivers welcome (if you can win the WDC your rookie season)"

I'll be rooting for Williams and Bottas next season. I'm glad they didn't judge him based off his rookie season, or think he wasn't good enough to help develop the car simply because he only had 1 year as a race driver.

[BertMk2]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

as for development, does JB do a lot of simulator work? that usually seems to be the domain of the junior driver. of course they might still have KM available to do that work but not having that same driver on track to corroborate the simulator times would, i assume, be disadvantageous from a development point of view.

I believe Gary Paffet was doing a lot of the simulator work - now that he's not there I guess that responsibility will fall to Magnussen and Van Doorne?

[chillibowl]

Originally Posted by Richard Casto

And I hate that my comments above are all in a discussion regarding Magnussen not getting the 2015 drive as I think he has a future in the sport.

lol, i hate when that happens. the price you pay for writing a great post.

thing is though, that while i was probably over generalizing i still feel that the broader point needed to be made.

Ricciardo is indeed an interesting example. your point about his nurturing is entirely valid but also he is the product of an ultra rich billionaire owner who is out there looking for the next great thing. i sort of feel like i need to insert a reference to the Medici family here. the rich nurture talent and that is no where more true (and welcomed imo) then in the realms of art and sport.

anyways before i start getting too carried away, after reading your last post i suspect we are actually much closer on this issue then my earlier posts suggested.

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

...he is the product of an ultra rich billionaire owner who is out there looking for the next great thing.

It is a process in which they grind them out. If I was good at photoshop I would have an image of Mateschitz cranking the handle on a sausage maker and F1 drivers popping out the other end. Sometimes the sausages are good (Vettel and Ricciardo) and sometimes not (Scott Speed).

Cheers!

Richard