[BTCC] BTCC 2022 season discussion, News and Rumours!

[antnee]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

For a comparison - Donington Park qualifying:

2021 - 0.94 seconds off the fastest lap puts you 28th on the grid.
2020 - 1.12 seconds off the fastest lap puts you 17th on the grid.
2019 - 1.02 seconds off the fastest lap puts you 11th on the grid.

Or to put it another way, Árón Taylor-Smith was 0.454 off the fastest qualifying time at Donington this year, in 20th place. A similar gap to the leader in 2020 would see him qualifying 9th, in 2019 he would have qualified 2nd.

The field has closed up so much in the last two seasons, that a pace good enough for 2nd in 2019 is now only worth 20th!

That is some very eye-opening data!

[BTCC frog]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Interesting how perspective can be ignored, or exaggerated to put across an opinion.

Árón Taylor-Smith has four wins in the BTCC, and a best finish of 8th. He is in a new car, in a team that is developing - 31 points is a disaster for a car project.

Tom Chilton has fourteen wins in the BTCC, and a best finish of 3rd. He is in a developed car, in a team that is rated highly - 39 points is a sign that the driver is struggling.

Is it possible that both drivers are taking time to adjust to new machinery - in the same way that Shedden seemed to early in the season?

For a comparison - Donington Park qualifying:

2021 - 0.94 seconds off the fastest lap puts you 28th on the grid.
2020 - 1.12 seconds off the fastest lap puts you 17th on the grid.
2019 - 1.02 seconds off the fastest lap puts you 11th on the grid.

Or to put it another way, Árón Taylor-Smith was 0.454 off the fastest qualifying time at Donington this year, in 20th place. A similar gap to the leader in 2020 would see him qualifying 9th, in 2019 he would have qualified 2nd.

The field has closed up so much in the last two seasons, that a pace good enough for 2nd in 2019 is now only worth 20th!

I think the 2019 result is a bit of an anomaly, as Turkington was a long way ahead of the rest there but most of the time a gap of 0.454 off would be around tenth. I can't remember why Turkington was so far ahead in Donington. I would say that, in general, the grid was ridiculously close in 2018, then spread out in 2019 and slightly further in 2020, but now has indeed closed up again in 2021.

And to answer your question about Chilton and Taylor-Smith, I think at the beginning of the season, I saw Taylor-Smith's position as very much the same as Chilton's and, to a lesser extent, Shedden's (Shedden has been as fast as he ever was this year, and his problem has been a combination of too many incidents and bad luck). But recently, Taylor-Smith has improved significantly and is now pretty much on par with Goff, which is where I expected him to be, so I think the 'adjusting' period is over. Chilton, on the other hand, has never been as quick as Morgan, which suggests the problem is more likely to be with the driver not being at his best. I hope Chilton gets back to his best soon; he is still three years younger than Plato was when Tom accused him of being 'too old for the BTCC,' so Chilton should have three more years in the BTCC

[Pdh]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Interesting how perspective can be ignored, or exaggerated to put across an opinion.

Árón Taylor-Smith has four wins in the BTCC, and a best finish of 8th. He is in a new car, in a team that is developing - 31 points is a disaster for a car project.

Tom Chilton has fourteen wins in the BTCC, and a best finish of 3rd. He is in a developed car, in a team that is rated highly - 39 points is a sign that the driver is struggling.

Is it possible that both drivers are taking time to adjust to new machinery - in the same way that Shedden seemed to early in the season?

For a comparison - Donington Park qualifying:

2021 - 0.94 seconds off the fastest lap puts you 28th on the grid.
2020 - 1.12 seconds off the fastest lap puts you 17th on the grid.
2019 - 1.02 seconds off the fastest lap puts you 11th on the grid.

Or to put it another way, Árón Taylor-Smith was 0.454 off the fastest qualifying time at Donington this year, in 20th place. A similar gap to the leader in 2020 would see him qualifying 9th, in 2019 he would have qualified 2nd.

The field has closed up so much in the last two seasons, that a pace good enough for 2nd in 2019 is now only worth 20th!

The only think I will say about you comparing the years is that in 2019 and 2020 donington was the first race weekends of the year where this year it’s the 9th weekend so the field should be closer by the end of the year than in the beginning so that’s also something to take into consideration with your point

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Pdh

The only think I will say about you comparing the years is that in 2019 and 2020 donington was the first race weekends of the year where this year it’s the 9th weekend so the field should be closer by the end of the year than in the beginning so that’s also something to take into consideration with your point

Yes, understood. I just picked Donington because it was most recent.

[AnnoyedMoose]

The cars are so evenly matched in the main that qualifying is critical. You're not making progress through the pack these days as was common a few years ago. The ultimate qualifying pace is the hardest thing for a new car or car/driver combination.

[hen henths]

Originally Posted by AnnoyedMoose

The cars are so evenly matched in the main that qualifying is critical. You're not making progress through the pack these days as was common a few years ago. The ultimate qualifying pace is the hardest thing for a new car or car/driver combination.

Going by what the commentators and Ingram were saying, ballast would need to be reduced for FWD and possibly increased for RWD to let the FWD cars make better progress when laden.

[hen henths]

There were rumours in the Donington thread that Plato might move to BTC and that Sutton might be running a new car next year.

I always got the impression JP would never drive a Honda as a matter of principle. It does look like his best option to stand a chance of bagging a few more wins though.

As for Sutton running a new car, it seems strange when the Infiniti is working so perfectly for him and the team. Could it be a matter of funding? Possibly bringing in funds from a new manufacturer?

There's also the matter of hybrids changing the landscape next year. In the few articles that have been released about them I haven't seen whether every driver will have to run a hybrid engine or whether they'll be adopted slowly like NGTC. If it's the latter it's likely to cause a huge imbalance in performance between those who do and don't have it.

So for Sutton, maybe dropping a hybrid engine into the Infiniti will alter its performance and handling in ways that mean they can't just pick up where they will have left off at the end of this season. They may need a whole new setup. Then there's the possibility of being pegged back, so maybe a new car does make some sense.

[Jon411]

I'm quietly pleased the ballast is going for next year, there's probably going to be enough moaning about how hybrid system affects RWD vs FWD as it is.

[S griffin]

Would Plato really want to go to BTC? Even though things haven’t worked out this year, despite a few appearances, I think he would be better off staying where he is. As for Sutton, could he be looking at other series?

Plato could go on for a few more years and I’m sure plenty would love to have him. But he’s being beaten by Lloyd and he will need to show he’s still got it or he might not last beyond next year at best at PMR, although someone else should easily pick him up

Sutton I can see trying something new. He’d love to stay no doubt. But he’d also not want to go stale. I guess it’s how much the new hybrids excite him. Maybe he could try other series alongside the BTCC? That would not surprise me. But I can’t see him going to another team, he’s got everything he wants where he is now

He is a great talent Sutton. He’d no doubt show good in a hybrid Infiniti, even if it was off the pace and would work hard to make it work. Don’t expect him to move on completely just yet

[redshoes]

Originally Posted by hen henths

Going by what the commentators and Ingram were saying, ballast would need to be reduced for FWD and possibly increased for RWD to let the FWD cars make better progress when laden.

Which becomes irrelevant in 2022 as they are getting rid of success ballast, and being replaced with variable hybrid power adjustments.

Originally Posted by hen henths

There's also the matter of hybrids changing the landscape next year. In the few articles that have been released about them I haven't seen whether every driver will have to run a hybrid engine or whether they'll be adopted slowly like NGTC. If it's the latter it's likely to cause a huge imbalance in performance between those who do and don't have it.

All hybrid. The hybrid system is effectively a bolt-on, so teams not running the TOCA engine don't need to change engines, just fit the hybrid bits.

[crmalcolm]

As mentioned, all cars with the hybrid system from day one.

Modifications required to current car;

Updated gearbox case (not all internals) to incorporate electric motor
Additional electronic connections
Changes to some intercooler locations and pipes.
Upgraded Cosworth ‘Antares’ electronics suite
Total fully installed system weight approx. 64 kg – including electric motor, battery, controllers, looms, pumps, pipes, cables, fluids etc.


If the Infiniti can carry the success ballast with little issue, it can carry the hybrid system.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Jon411

I'm quietly pleased the ballast is going for next year, there's probably going to be enough moaning about how hybrid system affects RWD vs FWD as it is.

Possibly, with the hybrid system adding 24kg to the current weight, I can see complaints looming about how RWD cars can carry higher weight better.

[Jiiiiiiim]

Originally Posted by hen henths

There were rumours in the Donington thread that Plato might move to BTC and that Sutton might be running a new car next year.

I always got the impression JP would never drive a Honda as a matter of principle. It does look like his best option to stand a chance of bagging a few more wins though.

As for Sutton running a new car, it seems strange when the Infiniti is working so perfectly for him and the team. Could it be a matter of funding? Possibly bringing in funds from a new manufacturer?

There's also the matter of hybrids changing the landscape next year. In the few articles that have been released about them I haven't seen whether every driver will have to run a hybrid engine or whether they'll be adopted slowly like NGTC. If it's the latter it's likely to cause a huge imbalance in performance between those who do and don't have it.

So for Sutton, maybe dropping a hybrid engine into the Infiniti will alter its performance and handling in ways that mean they can't just pick up where they will have left off at the end of this season. They may need a whole new setup. Then there's the possibility of being pegged back, so maybe a new car does make some sense.

Sutton in a new build (RWD) with a new alliance between teams was a rumour bouncing around the paddock, would also give extra motivation for JP to move on from PMR, not that there is any love lost between him & Weaver by all accounts.

Don’t think Mr Gilham will be boasting about 7 cars under the Team HARD alliance next season.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by BTCC frog

I would say that, in general, the grid was ridiculously close in 2018, then spread out in 2019 and slightly further in 2020, but now has indeed closed up again in 2021.

So I was wondering about this, and decided to make a comparison of qualifying performance from 2017 to today for HARD.

Originally Posted by Pdh

The only think I will say about you comparing the years is that in 2019 and 2020 donington was the first race weekends of the year where this year it’s the 9th weekend so the field should be closer by the end of the year than in the beginning so that’s also something to take into consideration with your point

And accepting this point, I appreciate there are a number of factors in play.

But here goes, with the assumption that HARD. would not have got a pole, I looked at how their best CC qualifying position compares to the best Cupra position at each circuit from 2017 to this season.
The first round at each event has been used where tracks were visited more than once.

I personally think it shows that the Cupra has consistently qualified better than the CC did recently. Silverstone was poor for the Cupra this season, and the 2017 CC car results were (mainly) down to Hill's driving.

[crmalcolm]

The next thing I looked at was hypothetically, if the Cupra had qualified with the same delta to the fastest car in each season, how would it match up to the CC's results of the day.

[crmalcolm]

So what conclusion do I draw?

I think that over time the rest of the grid improved relative to the CC, and gradually the CC became further away from pace.

A 2017 CC that had recently been in the hands of BMR and BKR was theoretically as competitive (against the field) to the current Cupra's pace (4-4 in head-to-head).
A 2018 CC was less competitive compared to the current Cupra's pace (5-3).
A 2019 CC has a similar head-to-head (5-3).
By 2020, the CC is now so far off the pace that it is beaten 6-1.

So is a 2021 Cupra an improvement on a 2017 CC - maybe.
Is a 2021 Cupra an improvement on a 2020 CC - yes, by a long way.

Which going back to the original point of the Cupra being a disaster of a project - for their first self-build, it is already getting better results than their last car in a field that has got increasingly competitive across the board.

[BTCC frog]

Thanks for that data and for the work you put into making it. I think it proves that the Cupra was definitely a big improvement on the 2019-20 VW CCs, but I'm sure nobody was denying that. I don't think it has been as good as the 2017 version, as I think the overall grid was stronger then than now (although this is a little subjective) and Hill and Epps scored more points than Goff and Taylor-Smith. Hill was very unlucky that season and deserved far more points than he got. Also, I rate 2021 Jack Goff at least as highly as 2017 Jake Hill. 2018 is harder to evaluate as Mike Bushell, their strongest driver that year (as Hill didn't get many good results in the first half of the season, and the VW looked better at the end), is probably not quite on Goff or Hill's level, although I think he is very good and hope he gets the third Cupra drive in 2022. (Rockingham, of course, isn't included there but I think that was Bushell's best result). But I am going to say that the Cupra probably is better than it, so would rank them,
1. VW 2017
2. Cupra 2021
3. VW 2018
4. VW 2019
5. VW 2020

The slightly concerning thing is that the Cupra seems to be going backwards in terms of performance, when you would expect a new car like that to be going forwards, but I think your data shows it definitely has not been a disaster. I think we'd all like it to be a bit more competitive, and for Goff and Smith to win races again, but I think maybe that was an unrealistic expectation for the Cupra. It is important to remember that without Team HARD, Jack Goff and Aron Smith wouldn't be on the grid at all.

It has now been suggested on reddit that Josh Cook may replace Jack Goff next year at Team HARD. I think this would be a disaster, as Cook would go from being a front-runner to a midfield driver, and Goff would disappear from the grid entirely, so I am hoping this does not happen and Cook either stays at BTC or goes to Toyota, with Goff staying at HARD.

[antnee]

I really can't get my head around the rumours of Sutton potentially bringing another new car to the grid. Unless he has fallen out with LTR/Moffats, why wouldn't he continue with the Q50, even as a single car team?

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by antnee

Unless he has fallen out with LTR/Moffats, why wouldn't he continue with the Q50, even as a single car team?

Don't overlook how much of a stake Mr Scott has in the future drives of Sutton. If there are issues between BMR / LTR, then Sutton will be out the door even if he wants to stay.

In fairness - I have no idea if there is any friction, but given the success that Sutton has had so far, why would he query plans that Mr Scott has for him?

[mprmke]

I don't know what the issues are in the Laser Tools Racing camp, but there definitely are issues. Carl Boardley clearly wasn't happy at Donnington.

We know the Laser Tools Racing/BMR/Team HARD tie up is going to be broken up and it looks like a BMR/PMR tie in is close to being agreed.

As for Plato not driving a Honda on principle, there is nothing in that at all. There may have been a few years ago, but not now. I mean, there may be absolutely nothing in the Plato to BMR rumours anyway, but if you asked Plato to answer honestly which car he would most like to be driving on the current BTCC grid to be successful, I'm sure his answer would be a BMR Honda!

[billy bleach]

Originally Posted by mprmke

I don't know what the issues are in the Laser Tools Racing camp, but there definitely are issues. Carl Boardley clearly wasn't happy at Donnington.

We know the Laser Tools Racing/BMR/Team HARD tie up is going to be broken up and it looks like a BMR/PMR tie in is close to being agreed.

As for Plato not driving a Honda on principle, there is nothing in that at all. There may have been a few years ago, but not now. I mean, there may be absolutely nothing in the Plato to BMR rumours anyway, but if you asked Plato to answer honestly which car he would most like to be driving on the current BTCC grid to be successful, I'm sure his answer would be a BMR Honda!

If Plato has a sack of sponsors Motorbase would be a good place for him ?

[crmalcolm]

It's interesting when you hear the potential PMR tie-in with BMR, which would probably involve a new build.

I can't see BMR taking on a TD Honda, having had so much success with builds of their own. Sutton would probably want a RWD machine if possible, but Plato had less success in RWD.

So - IF BMR and PMR form a partnership, what driver / car combo could they make work. Sutton would be in there, which would probably see Plato out - so Plato to BTC in a Honda then?

In all honesty, I can see a potential domino effect on the grid - some of which have been alluded to here already.


BMR / Laser Tools / HARD. alliance reaches and end.
TBLs that move include

Aiden Moffat holds 1x TBL, HARD. hold 4x TBL.
This forces the hand of HARD./Laser to revert to 2x 2-car teams.
One pair of Q50s driven by Aiden + Goff.
One pair of Cupras driven by ATS + Cook.

Boardley holds 2x TBLs, and BMR hold 1x TBL. This allows a 3-car team to be formed, but requires the backing of someone like PMR to fund the cars. So the combined BMR / PMR team enter a new build RWD car, driven by Sutton, Boardley and potentially Lloyd.

Plato moves to BTC, filling the seat vacated by Cook. He is joined by Proctor and Edwards.


This is all speculation, based on a few rumours here, mutterings from drivers on the grid and a bit of paddock grapevine.

In summary:
BTC - Honda - Plato, Proctor, Edwards
Laser Tools - Infiniti - Moffat, Goff
HARD. - Cupra - Taylor-Smith, Cook
BMR/PMR - new RWD - Boardley, Sutton, Lloyd

[Pdh]

I can’t see team hard going to just two Cupras next year that’s a lot of expense to build four cars just for one year

[crmalcolm]

I get the feeling that the time of year has now arrived, where the input that nobody has asked for yet is vital to the thread.

Haters gonna hate, but here it is - the list!!!!

(If anyone has updates that I may have missed - particularly in terms of official press releases - please comment. And yes, I know that confirmed is only ever about as confirmed as Cammish was for 2021).

[mprmke]

I meant Plato to BTC rumours and BTC Honda obviously, not BMR! I obviously wasn't fully awake this morning!

Plato and BMR linking up is unlikely to ever happen again!

Given the suggested struggles at Team Dynamics. A Team Dynamics and BTC tie up would be far more of a possibility.