Points towards title: Imola

[Schummy]

Again here I am with this "strange" view about WDC classification

As I said in an earlier post, usually to get a WDC a driver has to get at least an average of 6 ppr (points per race).

A win suppose +4 points with respect that average, a second position gives +2, a third 0, and so on.

Until now title contenders have done this:

     A  M  B  S   Tot  (A)  (B)
-------------------------------
MS  +4 +4 +4 +4 = +16  4.9  1.7
RB  +2 -1 +2 -3 =   0  6.0  6.0
JB  -3  0  0 +2 =  -1  6.1  6.3
JPM -2 +2 -6  0 =  -6  6.4  7.6
FA   0 -4 -3 -1 =  -8  6.6  8.1
RS  -1 -6 -4 -4 = -15  7.1 10.0
KR  -6 -6 -6 -5 = -23  7.6 12.1
-------------------------------

Column (A) means ppr they need in the rest of the season.

Column (B) means the equivalent in one race of the ppr they need to perform in the rest of the season. It is to say, [s]MS needs to get 4.9 ppr in the next 14 GPs and that task is as difficult as getting 1.7 points in ONE race[/s]. In KR's case his task [s]is equivalent to make 12.1 points in a race[/s], i.e. it is practically impossible he can do it. It is calculated using some basic statistical assumptions and is approximately orientative.

MS seems to have a very easy path ahead to get his 7th WDC! Rubens and Button are yet in a good way towards a typical WDC title's average. Of the rest, JPM did one race towards the title and a neutral one, and FA only did one neutral race.

I'm going to eliminate Ralf and Kimi since they are already unlikely to be WDC this season, he he (column B). Perhaps I'll include Trulli if he goes on doing well.

[Remus]

Very interesting. Thanks for doing the maths.
Can you predict from this data which race Schumacher will win the title at if all things so far continue to be equal. Spa? (please say yes.....)

[rodrigomarban]

Very interesting.

If everything continued like it is going, with Schumacher scoring 10 ppr and Barrichello scoring 6 ppr, Schumacher would win the title at the 13th race, which is the Hungarian Grand Prix.

This is because Schumacher would have 130 points and Barrichello in second place with 78. The difference would be 52 points with 5 races to go (50 points in dispute).

[Schummy]

If all things go on equal... I don't even want to think! Michael would win every race and... no, please, let's have some illusion.

Anyway, this is a good idea. Just now there are too few races yet, MS winning all of them does unreliable forecasting. When some GPs pass, we will try to predict it!

(rodrigo betaed me by one minute! Let's hope rodrigo's predictions doesn't happen, someone has some ideas about sabotaging? )

[rodrigomarban]

I also found interesting to see how it would be with the old scoring system:

Schumacher would still average 10 ppr, while Barrichello would average 4 ppr (6, 3, 6 and 1: 16 total) instead of the 6 he has with this system.

That way Schumacher would win the title at the 12th race, which is Germany. He would have an advantage of 72 points with 60 remaining in dispute: Schumacher 120 - 48 Barrichello.

[Schummy]

rodrigo, I'm glad that both of us like to crunch numbers I hope we go on throwing numbers in F1 forum for people who enjoy it!

[rodrigomarban]

Originally posted by Schummy
(rodrigo betaed me by one minute! Let's hope rodrigo's predictions doesn't happen, someone has some ideas about sabotaging? )

Yeah, let's hope that doesn't happen and we can see another driver win at least one race (which seems difficult), making Schumacher's ppr average go down to only 9.88888888888888 if he finishes second in that race

[rodrigomarban]

Originally posted by Schummy
rodrigo, I'm glad that both of us like to crunch numbers I hope we go on throwing numbers in F1 forum for people who enjoy it!

Sure! That would be great, entertaining, and very interesting!

[climb]

Of course, we all need some precious moments of pure mind mast*rbation!

Jokes aside, interesting views.

[Remus]

Keep the numbers coming guys...

[DriverT]

Yep, the more number crunching the better.

[Dani Filth]

keep them coming

[Schummy]

I have added a simple estimation of probabilities of reaching the "magic" 6-points average. It just uses the ratio of GP this season where driver got required points according to column B.

Since we only have 4 GPs, calculations are only orientative (and inexact).

Since probabilities are well above a total of 100%, I suppose more than one driver could reach the 6-ppr average. I have put in the last column the same calculation but to reaching and average of 7: ominous result! Only MS has a realistic chance to reach it.

MS  +4 +4 +4 +4 = +16  4.9  1.7  (100%) (100%)
RB  +2 -1 +2 -3 =   0  6.0  6.0    50%    (0%)   
JB  -3  0  0 +2 =  -1  6.1  6.3    25%    (0%)
JPM -2 +2 -6  0 =  -6  6.4  7.6    25%    (0%)
FA   0 -4 -3 -1 =  -8  6.6  8.1    (0%)   (0%)
RS  -1 -6 -4 -4 = -15  7.1 10.0    (0%)   (0%)
KR  -6 -6 -6 -5 = -23  7.6 12.1    (0%)   (0%)