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Old 29 Oct 2016, 17:33 (Ref:3683872)   #1
AndreasDavour
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The end of LMP1 as we know it?

I just listened to Midweek Motorsport about Audi's exit from WEC and top level sportscar racing. Suddenly it felt like this truly is the end of an era, and this is why.

I think this is where LMP1 start to fade away.

Let's look at how ACO have promoted LMP3, and how popular it have become. It's a cost limited formula, while still being a prototype race car.

Let's look at how ACO have decided to limit the multitude of machines and technological development that was happening in LMP2 in favour of a limited about of chassis options, and engine.

Let's look at how LMP1 privateer teams have lobbies for some way to get some kind of reason for them to be on the grid together with the factories, and ACO's response have caused Rebellion to leave. If that's not a big vote of no-confidence I'm not sure what is.

Let's look at the LMP2 teams that have expressed an interest in stepping up to LMP1. See above.

Let's look at one of the most expensive cock ups in marketing and race program efforts ever, Nissan LMP1. Not only did they spend stupid amounts of money on advertising, they also according to some voices never even tested their car with the hybrid system functioning before going racing! That was probably the best way ever to make bean counters think a top level sports car effort would be wasted money.

Add this up and I wonder why anyone would start a LMP1 program.

I think the future is LMP2 (pro) and LMP3 (pro-am) together on track, as LMP1 fades away.

What do you think?
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Old 29 Oct 2016, 20:03 (Ref:3683898)   #2
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I just listened to Midweek Motorsport about Audi's exit from WEC and top level sportscar racing. Suddenly it felt like this truly is the end of an era, and this is why.

I think this is where LMP1 start to fade away.

Let's look at how ACO have promoted LMP3, and how popular it have become. It's a cost limited formula, while still being a prototype race car.

Let's look at how ACO have decided to limit the multitude of machines and technological development that was happening in LMP2 in favour of a limited about of chassis options, and engine.

Let's look at how LMP1 privateer teams have lobbies for some way to get some kind of reason for them to be on the grid together with the factories, and ACO's response have caused Rebellion to leave. If that's not a big vote of no-confidence I'm not sure what is.

Let's look at the LMP2 teams that have expressed an interest in stepping up to LMP1. See above.

Let's look at one of the most expensive cock ups in marketing and race program efforts ever, Nissan LMP1. Not only did they spend stupid amounts of money on advertising, they also according to some voices never even tested their car with the hybrid system functioning before going racing! That was probably the best way ever to make bean counters think a top level sports car effort would be wasted money.

Add this up and I wonder why anyone would start a LMP1 program.

I think the future is LMP2 (pro) and LMP3 (pro-am) together on track, as LMP1 fades away.

What do you think?
That certainly can be the case but the ACO would have to get rid of the spec LMP2 format as quick as they brought it in. The DPI concept is looking pretty good right now eh? Personally I would love to see some sort of GT1 era to come back if at all possible. At the moment though, the GTE cars can't cut it because they just dont have enough straight away speed. So that needs to happen first in that regard.

I am glad to see the Audi withdraw myself. A shake up is what is needed I think to keep things from getting to boring. Half the fun with sportscar racing is the specutainment as the radiolemans.com folks like to call it.
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Old 29 Oct 2016, 21:00 (Ref:3683902)   #3
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It is unusual for manufacturers to compete in top level sportscars for more than 10 years at a time. If you look back over the last 50 or 60 years the only manufacturers that have done so are Porsche and Audi. All the others have come and gone in much shorter time frames.
It is up to those who make the rules to plan for that as it is usually in era's with major manufacturer battles that sportscar racing is best remembered.
Ideally you need about 4 manufacturers competing, any less and you run the risk of not enough if one or two leave, any more and some will not be able to compete and will go anyway.
The usual way the problems build up is that the cost of winning becomes too great and the bean counters come and say there is not enough return for what we are doing and the plug gets pulled.
It is up to the rule makers to come up with a formula to prevent costs getting out of hand and also allow privateers compete with the manufacturers.

As an aside it will be interesting to see how FE gets on as there will be at least 5 manufacturers in it soon. That could lead very quickly lead to an arms race to win at all costs. We will know the answer in 4 or 5 years time.
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Old 29 Oct 2016, 22:48 (Ref:3683910)   #4
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Did the same thing get promoted so much when it was just Audi and Peugeot or Audi and Toyota? The ACO's press release on Audi's departure seems to say more are on the way and have touted hydrogen like they have someone ready to use it.
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Old 30 Oct 2016, 02:30 (Ref:3683934)   #5
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Who could replace Audi? No American manufacturer has the technical skills nor the members to challenge Porsche or Toyota. Honda won't bother, Nissan tried, and failed miserably, who knows if Renault would let them. Peugeot doesn't want to sink tons of money developing a hybrid system. BMW has squashed any hopes for 2018 LMP car.

Ferrari, maybe, or Mercedes are the only even somewhat realistic options.

Bently wouldn't try as they're a VAG brand, honestly I don't know who could possibly replace Audi.
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Old 30 Oct 2016, 06:57 (Ref:3683963)   #6
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I believe Mercedes vowed never to return to Le Mans after both of their well publicised disasters.

I think LMP1 will eventually become a privateer dominated (by numbers) class. A major rule change will be required. As good as it has been, either hybrid systems need to go or have a decent and affordable off the shelf product for teams to use for LMP1 to be a viable option.
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Old 30 Oct 2016, 08:24 (Ref:3683977)   #7
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http://www.motorsport.com/wec/news/o...r-lmp1-843545/

tl;dr would be: scrap ERS.
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Old 30 Oct 2016, 08:26 (Ref:3683978)   #8
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Although ACO might revamp the LMP1 class in order to accomodate privateers and semi-works team, my concern that they might limit some aspects of that class like the number of approved chassis manufacturers, spec parts, etc.
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Old 30 Oct 2016, 08:27 (Ref:3683979)   #9
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I believe Mercedes vowed never to return to Le Mans after both of their well publicised disasters.
I believe this is some kind of a made up myth, and some kind of a way to glorify the accidents. Boardrooms do not sound like places where superstition is regarded highly.

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Old 30 Oct 2016, 08:35 (Ref:3683980)   #10
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As an aside it will be interesting to see how FE gets on as there will be at least 5 manufacturers in it soon. That could lead very quickly lead to an arms race to win at all costs. We will know the answer in 4 or 5 years time.
Depends how much the regulations are opened. Currently development is very limited and in future the chassis supposed to stay totally spec even if the battery side is gradually more opened.
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Old 30 Oct 2016, 08:47 (Ref:3683982)   #11
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Interesting to hear all your ideas on this.

Personally I think the noises from ACO about hydrogen and suchlike it just that, trying to entice more than anything solid. At least I wont believe anything come that way until it's on the pit lane of Le Mans.

I don't think it is immediate disaster. Manufacturers come and go, and while the era of Audi have been longer than I've been following endurance racing it was always something of an anomaly.

I also don't think my projected future will happen soon, but if we see no privateers in LMP1 in 2018, quite likely I'd say. Then the cards are on the table. If we see no additional manufacturer in 2018, which right now looks like a possible future, then I see no future for LMP1.

Keep talking, this is interesting!
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Old 30 Oct 2016, 12:09 (Ref:3684000)   #12
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An interesting article from motorsport, but let us all hope the ACO have something in mind, i will be attending silverstone spa and le mans next year whatever but would like to see some good racing in the top class. Fingers crossed LMP1 can adapt and attract entries from either manufacturers or quality privateers
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Old 30 Oct 2016, 16:29 (Ref:3684040)   #13
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I believe this is some kind of a made up myth, and some kind of a way to glorify the accidents. Boardrooms do not sound like places where superstition is regarded highly.
It is to an extent...
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“We’re trying to close the doors without embarrassing ourselves, the France family and embarrassing (the) Grand American Series,” he said in the deposition. “There is no money. There is no purse. There’s nothing.”
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Old 30 Oct 2016, 16:53 (Ref:3684045)   #14
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Hyundai, Honda (Acura), Peugeot, BMW and Subaru are the names we've heard about wanting to do lmp1. Any one of these guys joins for a 3 year program it's going to be a huge deal. I think the ACO has assurance that someone is coming in.
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Old 30 Oct 2016, 17:42 (Ref:3684059)   #15
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Hyundai, Honda (Acura), Peugeot, BMW and Subaru are the names we've heard about wanting to do lmp1. Any one of these guys joins for a 3 year program it's going to be a huge deal. I think the ACO has assurance that someone is coming in.
figures are crossed
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Old 30 Oct 2016, 18:23 (Ref:3684071)   #16
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Hyundai, Honda (Acura), Peugeot, BMW and Subaru are the names we've heard about wanting to do lmp1. Any one of these guys joins for a 3 year program it's going to be a huge deal. I think the ACO has assurance that someone is coming in.
Peugeot and BMW have already stated costs, and technological direction are too high or and wrong. Subaru can't afford a 250+ million dollar per year P1 project. Hyundai may, but would probably go GTE first, Honda is headed for GTE, not P1.
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“We’re trying to close the doors without embarrassing ourselves, the France family and embarrassing (the) Grand American Series,” he said in the deposition. “There is no money. There is no purse. There’s nothing.”
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Old 30 Oct 2016, 18:43 (Ref:3684075)   #17
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Hyundai, Honda (Acura), Peugeot, BMW and Subaru are the names we've heard about wanting to do lmp1. Any one of these guys joins for a 3 year program it's going to be a huge deal. I think the ACO has assurance that someone is coming in.
I think you're overly optimistic there. Where has the ACO said that they expect a new LMP1 manufacturer to join? Neveu hinted at new manufacturers but that could have very well been about GTE, as we know there's more people joining there and they`re desperate for good news now, so I wouldn't be surprised for him to be slightly misleading there.

Even under less complex LMP1 rules, putting together such a programme takes years of preparation so for manufacturers to go from no to yes (like BMW and Peugeot) to even put a car on track will take a long time, and we`re not even there yet where anybody has made the decision.

I think even under the most optimistic scenario, if someone would agree to join now, they won't be on the grid before sometime in 2018 the earliest, 2019 more likely.

So even if things go really well and there are new manufacturers coming (which I don't see right now, to be honest..) Toyota and Porsche will have to take us through two more seasons at least. If not longer.
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Old 30 Oct 2016, 19:09 (Ref:3684077)   #18
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The 919 was running a year after it was announced.

Toyota was racing within 8 months and won a race 11 months after it was announced.

2018 is both completely viable and already when any new manufacturers were expected to debut because of the regulation changes.
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Old 30 Oct 2016, 19:18 (Ref:3684079)   #19
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The 919 was running a year after it was announced.

Toyota was racing within 8 months and won a race 11 months after it was announced.

2018 is both completely viable and already when any new manufacturers were expected to debut because of the regulation changes.
I really don't have any information anyone else here is lacking about the future, but I know one thing about the past. The 919 Porsche was in development *way* before it was announced, that much Porsche have divulged.
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Old 30 Oct 2016, 19:44 (Ref:3684082)   #20
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Sure, but the point is just because no one has announced doesn't mean no one has started preparing. Contrary to all the doom and gloom I feel like Peugeot is now more likely to return in 2018, because the organizers are now going to be much more desperate to bring them in. Peugeot has done LMP1 and in house factory run motorsport programs much more recently than Porsche had, so it should be much easier for them to come back.

Despite what Toyota is currently spending it seems like Toyota and Peugeot both have about the same kind of budget they want to in the long term, it's pretty clear what the ACO and FIA need to do. I know the Peugeot Sport director was talking about non-hybrid cars a few days ago but Audi Sport was also a huge proponent of the GRE and has still never raced one.
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Old 30 Oct 2016, 20:56 (Ref:3684097)   #21
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I think you're overly optimistic there. Where has the ACO said that they expect a new LMP1 manufacturer to join? Neveu hinted at new manufacturers but that could have very well been about GTE, as we know there's more people joining there and they`re desperate for good news now, so I wouldn't be surprised for him to be slightly misleading there.
Neveau tweeted that another was joining the day Audi said they were leaving.
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Old 30 Oct 2016, 21:14 (Ref:3684102)   #22
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The 919 was running a year after it was announced.
It was?

Announcement June 2011: http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/92733

First photos were these exactly 2 years later: http://www.motorauthority.com/news/1...mans-prototype

Is there a more accurate timeline?

And there's a big difference between "running" as in doing the very first tests in private and being actually race-ready.
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Old 30 Oct 2016, 22:42 (Ref:3684121)   #23
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For some reason the source I had said June 2012 but it actually links to something from June 2011. One of those links alludes to something I was already saying though
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Porsche said it needed to expand its Weissach facilities considerably, including building a new workshop and office complex, just to house the 200-plus staff working on its LMP1 project.
This isn't a problem every manufacturer will have. The TS030 first ran only 4 months before its competitive debut and was more ready than the 919, because Toyota Motorsport together with ORECA was an established, experienced team that knew what they were doing while Porsche had to keep changing staff until they got a group that could work together then spend time learning to operate as a team in addition to just racking up mileage on the car.

For a Hyundai or a Subaru 2018 would probably be impossible, for a company that has existing resources capable of handling a sports prototype project it could be done.
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Old 31 Oct 2016, 05:20 (Ref:3684190)   #24
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With Audi's departure there may some staff that want to join another program. This upcoming winter and through next year will be a great time for someone to snatch some disgruntled staff from Audi. I don't think every manufacturer I listed earlier is capable of joining in two years, but there are some that can. Honda can and Peugeot can. They may not be competing for wins, but anything can happen. Any manufacturer can approach someone like Oreca on Onroak for chassis help, and existing teams can help with staff like Oreca and Toyota, or Joest and Audi. I bet there's guys out there that are just waiting to be part of a huge organization. Imagine Rebellion helping out the running of the car with a manufacturer like that. It may be unlikely, but it's not improbable.
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Old 31 Oct 2016, 17:09 (Ref:3684323)   #25
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A ruleset or formula which allows cars from previous years to compete against "new" machinery is a must in my view and not in an "also ran" category, but with a real competitive chance.

Something has to be done about the costs, they need to be halved (at least).
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