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Old 18 Oct 2019, 09:03 (Ref:3935377)   #26
Schummy
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Update after Japan, only 4 races to go.

GAP ANALYSIS

For title:
-----Gap ORG
HAM 338
BOT -64 32.0
LEC -117
VER -126
VET -126

For 2nd:
--- Gap ORG
BOT
LEC -53 26.5
VER -62 31.0
VET -62 31.0

For 3rd:
--- Gap ORG
LEC
VER -9 4.5
VET -9 4.5

The two most important things are: Hamilton's title is practically decided and Bottas 2nd position is also virtually decided. The only thing to be settled, realistically speaking, is 3rd position, with a very open fight between LEC, VER and VET.

In teams' championship, I confess I was a bit amused by the importance that Sky commentators were giving to one point more or one point less respect the Mercedes's title. The probabilistic unlikelihood of Merc not getting the title is huge in any case, a few points more or less. It is like feeling safe going to buy the newspaper with a helmet on to avoid being killed by a small meteorite. Yes, it is "possible" to get hit by a meteorite but...

Even 2nd position is realistically settled in favor of Ferrari, it has and ORG of 55.0 against Red Bull. And third is clearly for Red Bull... The only realistic discussion is for 4th position (!). Mac is a big favorite (Renault seems to have a slim 2% chance if things go on as in the past). Renault, in turn, is favorite for 5th positions, with Toro Rosso having a 9% chance against it. Chances for Racing Point seem to be a lot lower.
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Old 18 Oct 2019, 22:39 (Ref:3935532)   #27
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In teams' championship, I confess I was a bit amused by the importance that Sky commentators were giving to one point more or one point less respect the Mercedes's title. The probabilistic unlikelihood of Merc not getting the title is huge in any case, a few points more or less. It is like feeling safe going to buy the newspaper with a helmet on to avoid being killed by a small meteorite. Yes, it is "possible" to get hit by a meteorite but...
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