THE F1 COVID THREAD: Will GP be cancelled?

[bjohnsonsmith]

Will the Chinese GP be cancelled?

With the outbreak of the coronavirus, the outcome of this year's Chinese Grand Prix will be discussed at a meeting of the Strategy Group, on Wednesday.

https://classic.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/148118

[Greem]

The Sanya E-Prix has already been cancelled; right now I reckon the F1 GP is 50/50.

[Richard C]

If I was to put money on it, I would say yes, it will be canceled. It's not far out and I assume the longer they delay on a decision, the more trouble it will be to adjust.

Richard

[chunterer]

Originally Posted by Richard Casto

If I was to put money on it, I would say yes, it will be canceled. It's not far out and I assume the longer they delay on a decision, the more trouble it will be to adjust.

Richard

Yep I concur...

Is it too late to get a short notice deal with Sepang or another Asian continent venue instead?

[E.B]

With no proven vaccines available for the virus, before mid-year at the earliest, it would strike me as a pointless exercise to even consider running the event on the scheduled date in mid April. What team is going to risk their key staff? What spectators will even want to go, and then there is the matter of most international flights to the area cancelled currently making access at best difficult.

Its best chance would be to exchange race weekends with another venue scheduled later in the year.

[S griffin]

We have had precedent for this. The 1967 RAC Rally was cancelled due to foot and mouth and so was the 2001 IOM TT and BRC for the same reason. Also the A1GP trip to Mexico in 2009 was cancelled due to the swine flu outbreak

There is a fair chance that this race will not go ahead. Unless things have improved come April, it’s not worth the risk IMHO. The fact the Chinese EPrix has been postponed shows this is a decision that can’t be taken lightly. If it’s not safe by April, I can see it being cancelled. In a congested calendar, where are they going to fit in a new date?

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by S griffin

We have had precedent for this. The 1967 RAC Rally was cancelled due to foot and mouth and so was the 2001 IOM TT and BRC for the same reason. Also the A1GP trip to Mexico in 2009 was cancelled due to the swine flu outbreak

The A1 GP cancellation is a reasonable comparison, but I would not consider the 1967 RAC Rally, or 2001 IOM TT is setting precedent per se.
They were cancelled to prevent the disease being transmitted, as opposed to protecting the competitors, teams and spectators from catching the illness.
It's a subtle difference, but one that should be remembered when we consider these types of situations.

[Richard C]

Additionally, if they are discussing it tomorrow, I think they have two options.

1. Cancel (with potential for reschedule if that can be done, but details at later date.)
2. Continue to monitor the situation (kick the can down the road).

Note there can't be a firm "it will happen on the scheduled date" with no further discussion. There is no way they can commit in a positive way given the situation.

Richard

[chillibowl]

could the quarantine affect cargo?

air cargo flights canceled, staff shortages, workers quarantined etc...on top of everything else, i imagine there is a supply chain nightmare going on.

[E.B]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

could the quarantine affect cargo?

air cargo flights canceled, staff shortages, workers quarantined etc...on top of everything else, i imagine there is a supply chain nightmare going on.

Presumably all the race personnel run the risk of having to be quarantined after visiting somewhere not that far from Wuhan. And then as mentioned the cargo.
Wuhan, the epicentre of the pandemic, is less than a 4 hour train ride from Shanghai.
Less than two weeks after China teams will be setting up at Zandvoort.

[Casper]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

could the quarantine affect cargo?

air cargo flights canceled, staff shortages, workers quarantined etc...on top of everything else, i imagine there is a supply chain nightmare going on.

I depend on the supply chain from China and put two orders in today, if we don't get the components ordered there will be lay offs happening. It is inevitable that the race will not go ahead, one contact in China has told me that the absolute earliest they are allowed to go back to work is the 11th of Feb and they are about a 1,000 kms away from the centre of the disease. He was of the opinion that date will be put back even further.

The compounding issue is that a huge proportion of the Chinese population migrate back to the country from the major cities for the Chinese New Year and it seems that the govt is trying to prevent those people travelling back to the Cities for work by simply closing down the industries.

Qantas yesterday put a two month embargo on any Chinese destination which has guaranteed that Australia will suffer a huge hit along for the tourist industry in particular along with returning students for the new year of University study. There are thousands of students stranded in China and not able to return.

If the race was to go ahead and one of the leading drivers was to get the virus I think the subsequent legal action by that team would be interesting seeing as they were forced to go to China by the promoters. It would be an intolerable position for Liberty to even think about holding it.

[smithhehehaha]

I prefer to cancel the race. I think visitors may not regain their trust to visit China within 2 months even the pandemic can be under controlled right now.

[chunterer]

As Zandvoort is the round after China how about getting back to.Europe early for a 'European GP' at Donington?!

Oh god I hadn't realised how ironic that would be and a highly unlikely event title for a UK race..

[E.B]

Originally Posted by chunterer

As Zandvoort is the round after China how about getting back to.Europe early for a 'European GP' at Donington?!

Oh god I hadn't realised how ironic that would be and a highly unlikely event title for a UK race..

(Being from the other side of the world the Brexit connection didn't sink in first read!)

[Nikki Katz]

Ma Qinghua has had to quarantine himself in order to take part in the next formula e race, so yes it’s a problem. I can’t see f1 racing there before the autumn, and trying to fit it in will likely be difficult as the calendar’s congested already.

[S griffin]

Ma being in quarantine shows how serious this situation is. F1 needs to decide when to have a deadline on making a decision I would say.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by S griffin

F1 needs to decide when to have a deadline on making a decision I would say.

Or maybe skip the first decision, and just make a decision.

[S griffin]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Or maybe skip the first decision, and just make a decision.

I mean not leave it too late to make a decision. Make sure the decision is made with good time, while monitoring the decision in the meantime

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by S griffin

I mean not leave it too late to make a decision. Make sure the decision is made with good time, while monitoring the decision in the meantime

As long as there's an actual decision in there somewhere, and not just endless deliberation.

[bjohnsonsmith]

There was meant to be a meeting of the Strategy Group today but so far nothing.

[GT6]

i think it is looking very doubtful and to be honest othe races in that region could also be in doubt

[ScotsBrutesFan]

It would be lunacy to adopt a wait and see, the virus is still on the spread, and so really there is no point holding off.

As the calendar is 22 races this season, if China drops, I doubt the teams and their staff would be heart broken over an extra week or 2 at home base ahead of the start of the European season with the Dutch-Spanish double header.

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by ScotsBrutesFan

It would be lunacy to adopt a wait and see, the virus is still on the spread, and so really there is no point holding off.

I was looking at new infection rates in China earlier. It seems that it is not as high as earlier, but seems to be a roughly consistent 20% increase over the past handful of days. Sadly, it seems it will not stop anytime soon. And if they are locking things down (travel), I can't see them opening it up until things have truly reversed.

If there is no decision that comes out from today, I suspect it was lack of information within F1 as to impacts of making a decision. Such as... can we wait X days and the cost of not doing it will be roughly the same? Which I understand that logic if it goes that way. No doubt a committee will be formed!

But as I (and you) say above, the key driver is that things are getting worse and even if it was to magically slow, it will likely be weeks (if not longer) for any thawing of travel lock downs. Which means, it "should" be an easy decision to say "It is cancelled".

Richard

[Richard C]

Interesting twitter thread...

https://twitter.com/ChinaF1Journo/st...12969257115648

A translation of the orig Chinese content is shown deeper in the thread. As best as I can tell, Shanghai authorities are halting any sporting activities until the epidemic is over. I would assume that "over" means deep into the backside of the curve of new infections (which is nowhere in sight).

The decision may not lie with F1.

Richard

[Oldtony]

Originally Posted by Richard Casto

The decision may not lie with F1.

Richard

Which is the eventuality that the lawyers are probably telling Liberty puts them at least financial risk.