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Old 29 Nov 2015, 13:46 (Ref:3594184)   #1
Mike E
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WEC lap time analysis

I have done some lap time analysis on the WEC. I did it because of the LMP1-H vs LMP1-P discussions that have been going on and I wanted to quantify the lap time that the privateers are losing to the big boys.

I was also wondering how much of a gap there is between LMP1-P and LMP2, bearing in mind that LMP2 will be getting a power boost up to around 600bhp in 2017. This is probably not far short of what Rebellion and ByKolles are getting out of the AER V6 at the moment. Judd have relaunched their 5.5 litre V10 and are claiming over 480kW, or at least 645bhp (http://www.engdev.com/aim-lmp1-engine/). If this claim is accurate, then AER are getting at least 250bhp/litre out of that little 2.4 litre V6. That sounds like a strain.

Similarly, GTE Pro will be speeding up with the arrival of new cars and the new aero rules being introduced.

I analysed the fastest race laps for each car in each race. I know fastest lap may not be representative of a car's overall pace in a race but it does represent the best the car could do on the day (and calculating average race lap time, excluding FCY/safety car/pit in/pit out/etc sounds like hard work!).

Some points to note:
- There are only 3 cars running in LMP1-P. And Rebellion sat out the first two rounds while they re-worked their car to take the AER engine. So, only ByKolles were present for Silverstone and Spa, and they were pretty hopeless in both races.
- It gets more interesting from Le Mans onwards with the arrival of Rebellion. I have looked at the times for the full season, as well as the season excluding the first two rounds.
- I have calculated the average and median lap times. The median is probably a better measure because it removes the outliers (in LMP1 this is generally ByKolles, except at Le Mans, when the Nissans brought up the rear).

So, looking at the median figures from LM onwards, the gap from LMP1-H to LMP1-P is around 6% per lap (around 6 or 7 seconds on a typical circuit). That's a lot for cars supposedly competing with each other. The spread of fastest to slowest in LMP1-H was generally around 2.5% and that was enough to turn Toyota into spectators.

The gap from LMP1-H to LMP2 is around 10.5%. This is probably too big, considering the LMP2-GTE Pro gap is about 6%. It's not unusual to see LMP2s struggling to get by GTE cars. The LMP2 power boost is intended to sort this out by closing the gap to LMP1-H and increasing the gap to GTE.

More significantly, the LMP1-P to LMP2 gap is only about 4%. And in the races it has seemed a lot closer because of reliability problems in LMP1-P, and possibly inconsistent lap times (speculation). An extra 150bhp for LMP2 could make the current LMP1-Ps look very ordinary. The Rebellions have good top speed, comparable with the LMP1-Hs, and significantly ahead of LMP2. So they are losing out to LMP1-H on acceleration (4 wheel drive, huge torque) and handling/downforce ().
Bear in mind that an ORECA 05 with a 600bhp Gibson V8 in the back is not very different from a Rebellion-AER. So increase the top speed of the ORECA and you have a Rebellion lap time? Maybe.

No doubt Onroak/Strakka/Greaves/whoever have done these sums (a lot better than I have). You can see why they might be reluctant to jump into LMP1.

Anyway, the summarised numbers are shown below, and all the numbers are available here: http://1drv.ms/1NjbjNt

AVERAGE - FULL SEASON
LMP1-H->LMP1-P 6.69%
LMP1-H->LMP2 9.81%
LMP1-H->GTE Pro 16.95%
LMP1-H->GTE Am 17.69%
LMP1-P->LMP2 2.96%
LMP2->GTE Pro 6.52%
GTE Pro->GTE Am 1.15%

AVERAGE - LM ONWARDS
LMP1-H->LMP1-P 5.59%
LMP1-H->LMP2 9.78%
LMP1-H->GTE Pro 16.51%
LMP1-H->GTE Am 17.07%
LMP1-P->LMP2 3.98%
LMP2->GTE Pro 6.14%
GTE Pro->GTE Am 1.17%

MEDIAN - FULL SEASON
LMP1-H->LMP1-P 6.50%
LMP1-H->LMP2 10.35%
LMP1-H->GTE Pro 17.48%
LMP1-H->GTE Am 18.92%
LMP1-P->LMP2 3.37%
LMP2->GTE Pro 6.56%
GTE Pro->GTE Am 1.27%

MEDIAN - LM ONWARDS
LMP1-H->LMP1-P 6.16%
LMP1-H->GTE Pro 17.35%
LMP1-H->GTE Am 18.69%
LMP1-P->LMP2 3.94%
LMP2->GTE Pro 6.27%
GTE Pro->GTE Am 1.27%
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Old 1 Dec 2015, 14:01 (Ref:3594734)   #2
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Thanks, interesting stuff.

Nowall we need are evolutionary comparisons from the past five years
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Old 3 Dec 2015, 12:32 (Ref:3595194)   #3
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I think the ACO need to read this stuff when it comes to the rules.

They want to increase teams in P1-P by controlling the P2 regs, thus making P1-P more attractive, the ACO then shoot theirselves in the foot by increasing P2 power so P and P2 are similar.. As a team owner why spend more money building your own P1-P when running a car in the P2 may well overtake your P1-P in the race!
I honestly wonder what goes on in their minds.
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Old 3 Dec 2015, 13:06 (Ref:3595202)   #4
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I honestly wonder what goes on in their minds.


"... this is fine."

Not up to my usual memeing but I'm short on time at the moment. But I agree, this forced uplifting to prospective privateers into LMP1 isn't going to look so smart if a factory or two walked away.
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Old 3 Dec 2015, 13:11 (Ref:3595203)   #5
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Originally Posted by Chiana View Post
Thanks, interesting stuff.

Nowall we need are evolutionary comparisons from the past five years

I'll have a go at some earlier years. Shouldn't take too long with the template set up.

Quick observation:
GTE Pro fastest lap at Bahrain 2014 was 2:00.003. In 2015 it was 1:59.600.

LMP2 in 2014 was 1:52.283. In 2015 it was 1:52.177.

LMP1-H in 2014 was 1:45.989. In 2015 it was 1:41.893...
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Old 3 Dec 2015, 20:27 (Ref:3595287)   #6
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Have they been side stepped by the rate of progress?
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Old 4 Dec 2015, 07:47 (Ref:3595400)   #7
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Very interesting post and analysis, thanks!

In my opinion, what is really strange is that the LMP1-P don't manage to be a bit faster than they are.

Your analysis shows how much they have improved since the beginning of the year, but they are still too close to the lmp2 field, if you think that they should have nearly 150 hp more.

Let's take Rebellion example. Basically, the car should be very similar to the Oreca 05 that KCMG has run the whole year.
Anyway, i don't expect it to have worst aero performance. For the sake of this analysis, let's say the are the same, only difference being the engine.

If Rebellion really has something in the region of 650hp (which is what i heard as well), how can they be only 2-3 s faster than KCMG?

I did some simulation using the data provided by Perrinn and assuming an engine with 650hp.
It shows that the gap to the LMP1-H should be smaller than it really is.

I will publish something in my Blog about this study (https://drracing.wordpress.com/), as soon as i have some time to write.

But in my opinion it shows that, from a pure performance perspective (so ignoring reliability issue for a moment, although they probably have been a major point), something doesn't match.

For example, do the LMP1-P teams get "development" tires as the big guys? Can we assume them being better than the Dunlop used by the LMP2 field?
SMP racing claimed they had a big step forward switching from the "commercial" Michelin to the Dunlop, for example. I don't know what Michelin supplies to LMP1-P guys.

And, maybe the most interesting question here, do the LMP1-P engines really have 650hp? Looking to your analysis and the results i got, i personally doubt it.

An LMP2 (even an old one, like a Morgan) with 650hp would probably be faster than Rebellion, once the team has set it up properly.
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Old 4 Dec 2015, 08:13 (Ref:3595404)   #8
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Originally Posted by silente View Post
In my opinion, what is really strange is that the LMP1-P don't manage to be a bit faster than they are.
I've thought about this too. Hoping to read about your simulations soon.
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Old 4 Dec 2015, 13:53 (Ref:3595467)   #9
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silente, that's an interesting point about tyres. The Dunlop tyre test after the Bahrain round effectively confirmed the conclusions drawn above about LMP1-P vs LMP2. Dunlop were testing 2017 LMP2 tyres on all three LMP1-P cars because the performance of LMP2 in 2017 will more or less be the performance of LMP1-P now. Food for thought.

http://www.dailysportscar.com/2015/1...tyre-test.html
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Old 4 Dec 2015, 23:51 (Ref:3595576)   #10
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Originally Posted by silente View Post

If Rebellion really has something in the region of 650hp (which is what i heard as well), how can they be only 2-3 s faster than KCMG?
Rebellion has no more than 600HP

About the tires, Michelin provides bespoke tires for all it's partners but, obviously, the big manufacturers will receive a awful lot more attention and effort.

Do you remember where did you saw that SMP claim? I know the current LMP2 Dunlops are better than the LMP2 Michelins, on dry, that is. I already explained how that happened when the regulations banned confidential tires in LMP2, which effectively means suppliers will have their tires being analysed by their rivals(net result is preventing top-end secret compounds in the class)

Afaik, the LMP1-P tires are confidential, so they should be better than the Dunlops. Rebellion tested the Dunlops in Bahrain, so, if they don't switch soon, we can assume that to mean they are inferior to what Michelin gives them on LMP1-P.

I think the problem with comparing the LMP1-LMP2 Orecas is that KCMG tests/develops far more than Rebellion, which pretty much never does it(Bahrain being the only I can remember).

Which software did you use for laptime simulation, please?
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Old 5 Dec 2015, 00:07 (Ref:3595579)   #11
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At Le Mans now, Rebellion is basically able to do the same lap times as the factory run Lola Aston Martins with big engines were. While simultaneously the very top LMP2 pace has lowered by around five seconds. So now the gap is actually bigger than it used to be 5-6 years ago at the end of non-slowened non-costcap non-proam regulations.

Maybe not outside LM but whatever. The Oreca 04/R-One seems hyper optimized for Le Mans. Oreca 05 too (they've even admitted on it being built with the circuit in mind), but not quite to the same extent. Though obviously bigger powerplant has advantage at such fast circuit so bigger gap than at clone tilkedromes is only logical.

Last edited by Chiana; 5 Dec 2015 at 00:18.
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Old 5 Dec 2015, 01:26 (Ref:3595589)   #12
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@silente, what numbers do you have for Perrin's open source LMP1?

I have around 9066N of downforce at 240kmh, and 2000N of drag for the same speed.(no specific ride height but with a LM low drag config)

Very low figures when compared to Dome's(2011)12300N of downforce(240kmh), 3000N of drag , also on LM setup:
http://www.mulsannescorner.com/aerod...domes102i.html

The variation of aero figures for these LMPs is quite considerable, though. Here are values for a "generic closed top LMP2":
http://www.mulsannescorner.com/aerod...nericLMP2.html

silente, do you have values for Perrins's F1 open source?
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Old 23 Apr 2016, 19:59 (Ref:3635903)   #13
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I have had a look at the Silverstone fastest lap data.

LMP1-H fastest laps per car were in the range 1:40.303 to 1:41.076. This is a spread of 0.77% (also a spread of 0.77sec since it's about a 100 second lap).
Fastest lap was 0.533sec quicker this year than last year.

Spreads from previous years:
2015: 1.75%
2014: 1.19%
2013: 0.95% (only Audi and Toyota competing)

So it's closer, but of course there has been lots of discussion about who was running how much downforce etc so it's early days.

LMP1-P fastest laps were in the range 1:46.235 to 1:47.057. This is also a spread of 0.77%, so ByKolles have made up a lot of ground. However, they are still miles off LMP1-P.

Fastest LMP2 lap was 1:48.909. This was a freakishly fast Pipo Derani lap. Next up was a 1:49.506 from G-Drive/Jota. But this is still uncomfortably close to LPM1-P.
Fastest LMP2 lap in 2015 was 1:50.045.

In GTE Pro, Ferrari was easily quickest, taking the top two times with 1:58.885 and 1:59.753. No other GTE broke the 2min barrier.
The Fords brought up the rear in GTE Pro.


As mentioned before, top speed for LMP1-P is not a problem. Getting there might take a bit too long, and cornering speeds are probably significantly down on LMP1-H.

THE SOLUTION IS THIS: massive power hike - ditch the little AER for Judd's AIM 5.5 litre V10, 650bhp; or Gibson's ZJ458, 700bhp.
No fuel flow limit.
This will allow them to run more downforce than they do now to increase cornering speeds while maintaining their high top speeds.
Easy.

Mods: please remove '2015' from the thread title.
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Old 23 Apr 2016, 20:04 (Ref:3635905)   #14
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Judd already offers the 5,5 liter V10 AIM for LMP1 Non-Hybrid, even right now, but no-one is opting for it.

http://www.engdev.com/wp-content/upl...ngine-2016.pdf
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Old 23 Apr 2016, 20:48 (Ref:3635912)   #15
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Yes, what I actually meant to say is those other engines should be derestricted. 800bhp must be possible from that Judd.
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