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Old 2 Sep 2022, 13:55 (Ref:4124577)   #1276
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Oh yes, so obvious now you point out that the rising cost of energy in Asian countries was caused by "the incompetent policies of Mr Blair, Mr Brown, Mr Cameron, Mrs May, and Mr Johnson, and all their hapless energy minsters and advisors too numerous to name." and a UK-based "stealth green tax" in 2021.

Of course, some will claim that only their sources are reliable, and if you read other sources you have no sense of reality.
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Old 2 Sep 2022, 14:00 (Ref:4124578)   #1277
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I can't understand why some people so keen to increase usage of a commodity that has us in the thrall of war mongers, Middle Eastern despots or Nicola Sturgeon.

Surely the events of the last months show we need an independent, renewable power generation system. What is the point of leaving the EU if we still have to kow tow to some of the worst regimes in the world? At least in Europe we had increased buying power.

Are our posters Russian trolls?

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Old 2 Sep 2022, 14:04 (Ref:4124579)   #1278
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Having worked for many years in the energy industry I can tell you the cost associated with engineering an offshore wind complex is similar to that of a jacket and topsides. Mostly because two locations are never the same. Also as the companies are discovering, the standardised tubular foundations only work at shallow depths. They need vast amoounts of concrete to fix turbines where the depths (and ground conditions) require it. Then there's the cabling etc. The model only works because of subsidies. And yes Oil and Gas are subsidies but not so they produce more fuel, but to help them develop green energy solutions.

Have a look at: https://assets.publishing.service.go...Brief_2021.pdf it shows wind and other renewables providing 41% of the total requirement in 2021. And don't forget this isn't in concert with oil gas and others, it's intermittent meaning the need to keep gas on standby is expensive.

Argue as much as you like but renewables in their current development are failing.
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Old 2 Sep 2022, 14:10 (Ref:4124580)   #1279
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I can't understand why some people so keen to increase usage of a commodity that has us in the thrall of war mongers, Middle Eastern despots or Nicola Sturgeon.

Surely the events of the last months show we need an independent, renewable power generation system. What is the point of leaving the EU if we still have to kow tow to some of the worst regimes in the world? At least in Europe we had increased buying power.

Are our posters Russian trolls?

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Nope, it demonstrates that we need an independant source of reliable energy. And currently the best solutions are fossil fuels (fracking etc.) since these can be brought on line in the medium term. Renewables as per the UK Government's own report, cannot currently provide anywhere near the country's needs and only niaivity would suggest otherwise.
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Old 2 Sep 2022, 14:29 (Ref:4124585)   #1280
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Funnily enough , just read this item .https://www.express.co.uk/comment/ex...sive-Putin-gas

At last someone has started to tell the truth .
Of course , some will say that it is not the most reliable source , but they probably read the Guardian or listen to the BBC. So their sense of reality is not worth even considering .
Listen to the More or Less pod I linked. See the difference in how it is done. Not just based on what you want or don’t want to hear.

Of course, some will say that it is not the most reliable source, but they probably read The Critic. So their sense of reality is not worth even considering.

But then that is exactly what The Critic wants. It was started to promote the Culture Wars.
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Old 2 Sep 2022, 14:29 (Ref:4124586)   #1281
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Having worked for many years in the energy industry I can tell you the cost associated with engineering an offshore wind complex is similar to that of a jacket and topsides. Mostly because two locations are never the same. Also as the companies are discovering, the standardised tubular foundations only work at shallow depths. They need vast amoounts of concrete to fix turbines where the depths (and ground conditions) require it. Then there's the cabling etc. The model only works because of subsidies. And yes Oil and Gas are subsidies but not so they produce more fuel, but to help them develop green energy solutions.

Have a look at: https://assets.publishing.service.go...Brief_2021.pdf it shows wind and other renewables providing 41% of the total requirement in 2021. And don't forget this isn't in concert with oil gas and others, it's intermittent meaning the need to keep gas on standby is expensive.

Argue as much as you like but renewables in their current development are failing.
Thanks
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Old 2 Sep 2022, 14:43 (Ref:4124588)   #1282
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Having worked for many years in the energy industry I can tell you the cost associated with engineering an offshore wind complex is similar to that of a jacket and topsides. Mostly because two locations are never the same. Also as the companies are discovering, the standardised tubular foundations only work at shallow depths. They need vast amoounts of concrete to fix turbines where the depths (and ground conditions) require it. Then there's the cabling etc. The model only works because of subsidies. And yes Oil and Gas are subsidies but not so they produce more fuel, but to help them develop green energy solutions.

Have a look at: https://assets.publishing.service.go...Brief_2021.pdf it shows wind and other renewables providing 41% of the total requirement in 2021. And don't forget this isn't in concert with oil gas and others, it's intermittent meaning the need to keep gas on standby is expensive.

Argue as much as you like but renewables in their current development are failing.

Thanks for that link Peter .It will take me a while to go right through it .

But here is one for you , which I think you will probably already know about .
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.co...vestment-eroi/
Energy Return On Investment , shows that wind and solar are both very poor ideas and need a lot of subsidies just to exist .
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Old 2 Sep 2022, 15:17 (Ref:4124592)   #1283
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There are higher EROI measurements for wind turbines out there. Did you find other sources from your google search?

Why are we playing off one energy source verses another. A portfolio of sources is clearly the way forward. As is an assessing that is more than EROI. Or at least a longer term definition of. I know you don’t care, but environmental, local and global, are considerations.
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Old 2 Sep 2022, 15:37 (Ref:4124594)   #1284
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If we accept, and most do, a world powered by clean energy is a good thing, then we must also accept no energy is clean. Steel for turbines cannot be made using wind power, it needs coking coal, low carbon but still an emitter. The vast majority of lithium for batteries is excavated by explosives and diesel powered excavators etc. China and Australia are the largest miners and they produce together in the region of 120k tonnes per annum. Lithium from brine is significantly less but still requires fossil fuels to process.

So, if everyone stopped going "full Greta" and realised there is a balance to be had in terms of energy provision, we'd be in a much better place. Eventually everyone will realise that the only sure and stable method of power generation is Nuclear.
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Old 2 Sep 2022, 16:11 (Ref:4124598)   #1285
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And all we have is full Greta or full rejection of anything that means change. People are simple I guess. And the media feeds this.

Sliding doors. My life could have been very different. Many moons ago I was accepted on a program with British Nuclear Fuels after my PhD. Alas funding for such programs was cut and it came to nowt.

Yes, I agree on the emissions side nuclear is very green. Obviously there are other aspects you have to be careful about and this can make the beginning and end of a reactor expensive. To do that right is expensive. But the consequences of not doing any of this right is also expensive. So important even if that is your only consideration.
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Old 2 Sep 2022, 16:24 (Ref:4124599)   #1286
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Yes, I agree on the emissions side nuclear is very green. Obviously there are other aspects you have to be careful about and this can make the beginning and end of a reactor expensive. To do that right is expensive. But the consequences of not doing any of this right is also expensive. So important even if that is your only consideration.
Hence that "balance" thing.
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Old 2 Sep 2022, 17:04 (Ref:4124605)   #1287
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Hence that "balance" thing.
Exactly - balance.

We've stepped a long way from 'historic racing', but I guess this thread does that from time to time. I appreciate it's more akin to a fireside chat in a bar.

The problem with those chats sometimes is when the one guy feels he has his audience primed to listen to tales of government conspiracy and media cover ups. Dismissing any counter to their view of his with the notion that we're all being controlled by a higher authority unless we 'wake up to reality'.

The truth is that yes, governments and media apply a certain level of bias to their output to 'influence' the masses. But that doesn't mean we're subject to some Illuminati control experiment.

There are many factors at play in a multifaceted environ that has resulted in the high energy costs of the near future (in a financial sense).
Ukraine, Brexit, Renewables, Asian demand, taxation, climate and many more all play a part. Slating one of those alone in some 'critical thinking' does not mean that you are showing up 'the man'. It just demonstrates an inability to hold a balanced view.
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Old 8 Sep 2022, 18:26 (Ref:4125344)   #1288
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Feels odd to have a King barely older than me.......


RIP Queen Elizabeth II, queen for almost all my life.
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Old 8 Sep 2022, 18:35 (Ref:4125345)   #1289
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Feels odd to have a King barely older than me.......


RIP Queen Elizabeth II, queen for almost all my life.
I'll echo that - and a Queen for all of my life (I was born in May 1952).
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Old 8 Sep 2022, 19:53 (Ref:4125347)   #1290
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Certainly she reigned all of my life so far. An amazing woman who, if my messaging apps from friends in many countries are accurate, reached and touched so many lives.
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Old 8 Sep 2022, 20:02 (Ref:4125349)   #1291
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Certainly she reigned all of my life so far. An amazing woman who, if my messaging apps from friends in many countries are accurate, reached and touched so many lives.
I think there is no doubt about that - just reading some of the Comments under press stories confirms that, with comments from all over the world.

I almost feel it is like losing my own mother, and I am sure for many others it is just the same. I know she was held in great affection here in France.
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Old 8 Sep 2022, 21:28 (Ref:4125355)   #1292
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It truly is the end of an era. I don't think King Charles is looked at with anywhere near as much affection and respect as Queen Elizabeth.

However - God save the King! I hope he can carve out his own niche and serve us as well as his mother.

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Old 8 Sep 2022, 23:23 (Ref:4125363)   #1293
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I'll echo that - and a Queen for all of my life (I was born in May 1952).
Me too.

Can we blame Boris and Liz T for EII's rapid exit just after they visited her?

That they were received seems to have suggested she had at least a few more months of reign remaining.
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Old 9 Sep 2022, 00:20 (Ref:4125364)   #1294
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I can't understand why some people so keen to increase usage of a commodity that has us in the thrall of war mongers, Middle Eastern despots or Nicola Sturgeon.

Surely the events of the last months show we need an independent, renewable power generation system. What is the point of leaving the EU if we still have to kow tow to some of the worst regimes in the world? At least in Europe we had increased buying power.

Are our posters Russian trolls?

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There is, as I understand it, a considerable amount of oil and gas available under land and sea controlled by the UK (at least it is ours currently.)

Now it may well be seen as too expensive to extract, especially when compared with claims of "cheap as chips" renewables that have been popular in recent decades, but now that the cost of energy from all sources is seen to be increasing (whatever that really means in a practical sense) it may not be as expensive as was thought a decade or so ago.

Either way we, the developed world, have been less than enthusiastic about committing the necessary percentage of global GDP for the cost of energy that will be needed in the future. Sources will likely be more expensive to develop than the current energy and productivity balance of civilisation seems willing to fund - especially when other sources, like Russia and the Middle East still have readily available resources that for now will not be burdened by "excessively" high costs of production.

Excessive is a relative term. Especially if one sees the cost as a burden (heating, food, international security) rather than, say, an investment such as bricks and mortar, whether housing or offices or "industrial units".

That's a global problem, not just a UK problem.

The UK problem, specifically, is that we created the Industrial revolution because, at the time, we had the resources that made it happen and were more than prepared to exploit them.

Now we are not. So the few local coal fired power stations that remain, supposedly working limited hours per annum until 2024 at the latest, are now being asked to be prepared to be fully operational for at least the next winter - despite reduced maintenance and investment for several years.

Our local coal fired station has the biggest stock of coal I have seen for years. South African coal I have been told. I suppose as supply chains go ZA is as reliable as anywhere, despite the reduced size of the UK naval force.

Windturbine installations in the North Sea look much more vulnerable to possible interference from, say, Russia. And as I understand it the Wind farms and Solar Farms are heavily reliant on materials and products created and shipped from elsewhere, especially China.

That suggests that, currently, we are in no position to be self sufficient in anything and unlilely to be so for some years at best.

China, as an example, has no qualms about extending use of coal and gas for any purpose so our "green" investment probably mostly goes to support fossil powered materials production and engineering in China and then the transportation of those products half way around the world to Europe, where the quality of the products will likely be found to be wanting but not before they have been used to create "energy sources" at sea or on land.

About a decade ago I saw some research that suggested the North Sea windpower requirements for the UK's projected use of around 40Gwh at peak points (assuming some large amount of battery storage had been deployed as a solution to the intermittency problem, would burden Wind alone with a need to deploy about 104,000 wind turbines for offshore generation. Or more. Maybe half that now that generator sizes have increased but the available plated capacity still needs to be around 6 times the optimum best output expectations. That entire fleet would need to be replaced every 20 or so years.

Against that sort of demand model, I find it difficult to imagine a viable business model in terms and numbers that we might understand today. I'm not sure anyone has one for the future either - especially if Russia goes native with or without Putin.

Hopefully, something will pop up to save us.
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Old 9 Sep 2022, 05:51 (Ref:4125379)   #1295
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In summary, the costs associated with development and extraction of fossil fuels depend on location. The deeper they are,the more costly it is. But the value of the energy is based upon the quantity available. That's why the USA, Qatar, UAE etc. all have lower energy bills because they sell to their home market at "cost". The same principles apply to wind. You have to locate the area, survey, both geographically and goetechnically. Then you have to design the foundations and cabling routes. Once done you have to either pour loads of concrete, or drive massive tubular piles and pour loads of concrete. This latter method is creating all sorts of claims because the developers like it due to its speed, but they are using them at depths where they are at the design limit.

So effectively the develoment and construction costs for offshore renewables is similar to oil and gas. The returns though are based on the gas price so whilst renewables are unreliable they are paid as if they are as constant as gas.

Nowhere will ever be net zero but until we have enough nuclear to plug the real failures of wind (solar in This country really is struging) we won't get anywhere near it.
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Old 9 Sep 2022, 07:18 (Ref:4125383)   #1296
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Am I right in thinking that the cost of liquid fossil fuel could be reduced if only the Middle East countries, that have it under their soil, would substantially increase production/distribution. But they choose not to as the high cost fills their coffers up, and so they are loath to turn the taps on any further than at present.
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Old 9 Sep 2022, 07:40 (Ref:4125384)   #1297
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That's a somewhat simplistic view, however the real reason why we are where we are, is due to aiming for net zero without putting a strategic plan in place. We placed our reliance on those foreign entities because it meant offshoring the carbon emissions.

The real problem is gas, not oil. Oil may have gone up but gas has increased mainly due to market forces. Russia was/is one of the biggest gas producers and the current situation has exacerbated the problem of supply v demand.
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Old 9 Sep 2022, 10:56 (Ref:4125400)   #1298
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Living in the North-West, not too far from the Cuadrilla fracking test site, I was pleased to hear that consideration is being given to again testing our ability to access the huge gas reserves in the Bowland shale - but irritated beyond measure by the cries of "but that'll do nothing to keep us supplied this year".....


Of course it won't, but a large reason we have the problems we have now are because of political short-termism in regard to infrastructure planning - cf Clegg dismissing the plans for more nuclear power 10 years or so ago, "because it wouldn't be ready until the 2020s....."


Arguably what we need now are small-scale modular nuclear reactors, such as Rolls-Royce have planned, which can be delivered in relatively small timescales and deployed near the point of need thus lowering distribution network demand. And fracking!
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Old 9 Sep 2022, 11:04 (Ref:4125402)   #1299
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Living in the North-West, not too far from the Cuadrilla fracking test site, I was pleased to hear that consideration is being given to again testing our ability to access the huge gas reserves in the Bowland shale - but irritated beyond measure by the cries of "but that'll do nothing to keep us supplied this year".....


Of course it won't, but a large reason we have the problems we have now are because of political short-termism in regard to infrastructure planning - cf Clegg dismissing the plans for more nuclear power 10 years or so ago, "because it wouldn't be ready until the 2020s....."


Arguably what we need now are small-scale modular nuclear reactors, such as Rolls-Royce have planned, which can be delivered in relatively small timescales and deployed near the point of need thus lowering distribution network demand. And fracking!
Agree with all of that.
I would like our new political leadership to have a strategic plan to take back control (I think I have heard that phrase somewhere before…..) of some of our strategic industries instead of offshoring a lot of things.

As for small scale modular nuclear reactors, the RN has been using Roll-Royce built small nuclear reactors for approx 60 years, and i have often said that we should have dozens of similar ones on land to both provide power and lower the unit cost of the ones being used at sea!
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Old 9 Sep 2022, 11:18 (Ref:4125403)   #1300
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Originally Posted by Lancsbreaker View Post
Living in the North-West, not too far from the Cuadrilla fracking test site, I was pleased to hear that consideration is being given to again testing our ability to access the huge gas reserves in the Bowland shale - but irritated beyond measure by the cries of "but that'll do nothing to keep us supplied this year".....


Of course it won't, but a large reason we have the problems we have now are because of political short-termism in regard to infrastructure planning - cf Clegg dismissing the plans for more nuclear power 10 years or so ago, "because it wouldn't be ready until the 2020s....."


Arguably what we need now are small-scale modular nuclear reactors, such as Rolls-Royce have planned, which can be delivered in relatively small timescales and deployed near the point of need thus lowering distribution network demand. And fracking!
I think those.who live in the.localities where fracking will take place will be happy if, as I understand it, the fracking companies will pay 25% of their energy bills. Not sure how it will be implemented but it comes back to my point about other countries where energy costs are lower because they sell to the home market at cost.

Andy, whilst I agree with you surely a reactor for a submarine would be insufficient to provide power to any but a few properties. So, I believe the RR mini reactors are entirely new technology. "Mini" in this case being a smaller footprint than the current design, but still significantly bigger than a submarine.
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