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Old 20 Mar 2015, 22:34 (Ref:3517624)   #1
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Veggie McLaren - can they compete?

McLaren Honda currently and unexpectedly have a huge performance deficit to overcome, can they hope to compete under the "no testing formula", and if they can when will they be competitive?

They have probably blown their biggest chance already.

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/formula1/31942251


How would this effect any other manufacturer looking at F1?
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Old 20 Mar 2015, 23:01 (Ref:3517630)   #2
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Can they compete? Yes. Soon? No.

They've got some leeway to change their engine - there are the development tokens and they can change components outside of that for reliability or safety reasons. So theoretically they can make fairly big changes. However, I'm surprised at just how far off the pace they are considering the time they've had to develop and dyno the engine and hybrid bits and bobs. Ok, an installation in a car is different to running on a dyno but they're miles from where they need to be (and should be). This year is a write off - they may as well turn the engines up and just blow them to pieces - at least that way they can make numerous changes on the grounds of reliability, tootling around with the engines turned down is pointless. It's not as if the grid penalties are going to hurt them.
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Old 21 Mar 2015, 00:18 (Ref:3517647)   #3
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They are badly on the backfoot and it'll depend on them maintaining morale in the face of a constant barrage of criticism for an extended period. Internet age also makes criticism especially unrelenting and rigorous.

This year, no. After that maybe. But I'm not entirely confident. Their last stint they had trouble getting things together over a number of years. It's also difficult to see Dennis and Bouliers position as being particularly secure - which might create further instabilities in the relationships between the two partners. I'd say Whitmarsh is quite glad to be on this boat atm.
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Old 21 Mar 2015, 07:04 (Ref:3517683)   #4
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They are badly on the backfoot and it'll depend on them maintaining morale in the face of a constant barrage of criticism for an extended period. Internet age also makes criticism especially unrelenting and rigorous.

This year, no. After that maybe. But I'm not entirely confident. Their last stint they had trouble getting things together over a number of years. It's also difficult to see Dennis and Bouliers position as being particularly secure - which might create further instabilities in the relationships between the two partners. I'd say Whitmarsh is quite glad to be on this boat atm.
I would add to that a lot depends on how....

Patient the Honda board are
Willing McLaren shareholders are to subsidise the F1 team in the face of falling FOM revenue and lack of main sponsor
How willing FA is to wait
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Old 21 Mar 2015, 08:44 (Ref:3517691)   #5
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I must admit that I was very surprised & disappointed at how far off the pace and how unreliable the Honda PSU has turned out to be. I expected them to do better than this and to have ironed out a lot of the problems first found in car testing with the engine on the dyno.
There is a lot said about 'the packaging in the car' but again, in this day & age surely it's not beyond the capabilities of an engineering giant combination of McLaren & Honda to replicate this for a dyno testing environment?
If not, why haven't Honda got the PSU installed in what looks like a sportscar on the outside, but is really a McLaren F1 underneath and have that punding around their test track 24/7 to iron out their problems?
Although it would double their workload it would also halve their development time if they could supply the engines to another team. I can really see the advantages for McLaren/Honda helping solve Manor's financial problems and getting them to run their engines too.
I am sure that McLaren Honda will sort this all out eventually, but only if everyone involved is patient enough to give them the time to do so.
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Old 21 Mar 2015, 10:18 (Ref:3517705)   #6
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I must admit that I was very surprised & disappointed at how far off the pace and how unreliable the Honda PSU has turned out to be. I expected them to do better than this and to have ironed out a lot of the problems first found in car testing with the engine on the dyno.
There is a lot said about 'the packaging in the car' but again, in this day & age surely it's not beyond the capabilities of an engineering giant combination of McLaren & Honda to replicate this for a dyno testing environment?
It would be almost impossible to replicate a racing environment on a test bed. By just the simple virtue of the fact that the power-unit remains in a fixed position in a building means that they have to employ supplementary cooling which they couldn't do on a car on a track. There are other conditions that are also completely dissimilar.


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If not, why haven't Honda got the PSU installed in what looks like a sportscar on the outside, but is really a McLaren F1 underneath and have that punding around their test track 24/7 to iron out their problems?
For the simple reason that the FIA rules and regulations do not permit it. Look at all the problems encountered by Pirelli when they wanted to test tyres. And no matter how much Honda mi98ght have tried to conceal the fact that might have been disguising a F1 car as a sports car, the FIA are not quite that stupid!


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Originally Posted by VIVA GT View Post
Although it would double their workload it would also halve their development time if they could supply the engines to another team.
I think that they took the decision to work with one partner so that they didn't dilute their efforts by having multiple teams all running with different installation setups. Also, they were probably aware that there was a possibility that initially things might go horribly wrong, as they have, and then their embarrassment would have been compounded. I am certain that they are not happy with themselves in Japan at the moment; this is a huge loss of face for them.

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I can really see the advantages for McLaren/Honda helping solve Manor's financial problems and getting them to run their engines too.
Apart from the above, Honda are not a charity. Why should they go to the aid of a company that had just stiffed their opposition for many millions of dollars.[/quote]

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I am sure that McLaren Honda will sort this all out eventually, but only if everyone involved is patient enough to give them the time to do so.
I am sure they will unless the loss of face is so great that they are forced to beat a hasty retreat, probably to never to return to F1.
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Old 21 Mar 2015, 16:21 (Ref:3517882)   #7
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It would be almost impossible to replicate a racing environment on a test bed. By just the simple virtue of the fact that the power-unit remains in a fixed position in a building means that they have to employ supplementary cooling which they couldn't do on a car on a track. There are other conditions that are also completely dissimilar.




For the simple reason that the FIA rules and regulations do not permit it. Look at all the problems encountered by Pirelli when they wanted to test tyres. And no matter how much Honda mi98ght have tried to conceal the fact that might have been disguising a F1 car as a sports car, the FIA are not quite that stupid!




I think that they took the decision to work with one partner so that they didn't dilute their efforts by having multiple teams all running with different installation setups. Also, they were probably aware that there was a possibility that initially things might go horribly wrong, as they have, and then their embarrassment would have been compounded. I am certain that they are not happy with themselves in Japan at the moment; this is a huge loss of face for them.



Apart from the above, Honda are not a charity. Why should they go to the aid of a company that had just stiffed their opposition for many millions of dollars.
Thanks Mike, you seem to have comprehensively answered/trumped my comments there!


I am sure they will unless the loss of face is so great that they are forced to beat a hasty retreat, probably to never to return to F1.[/QUOTE]
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Old 21 Mar 2015, 10:22 (Ref:3517706)   #8
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Hope they get this sorted more quickly than the NR500 bike racer, called the "Never Ready" 500 by bike racing wags.
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Old 21 Mar 2015, 19:40 (Ref:3518042)   #9
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i think that will never happen, even with some minor excursions into gt racing the f1 programme is the heart of the company and without it they would not really be anything
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Old 22 Mar 2015, 02:40 (Ref:3518225)   #10
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Remember that Honda's engine had to be homologated while the rest of the field did not. Unlike the other teams who have saved tokens to spend throughout the year the Honda engine is locked down except for reliability changes.

I don't like their chances this year.
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Old 22 Mar 2015, 04:40 (Ref:3518260)   #11
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Remember that Honda's engine had to be homologated while the rest of the field did not. Unlike the other teams who have saved tokens to spend throughout the year the Honda engine is locked down except for reliability changes.

I don't like their chances this year.
while that is true, Honda challenged this aspect as being unfair and have been awarded the average unused number of tokens between the teams which is 9. Interestingly, I believe Renault still has the most left at 12, so both PU's should not be written off for the season just yet.
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Old 22 Mar 2015, 08:43 (Ref:3518285)   #12
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It is normal now for every team/engine manufacturer to complain about the advantage everyone else has over them but we can all see the failure of the honda engine to be even close to the other 3 units but they will improve, The ridiculous rules mean that the process will take some time and that just proves that if you introduce silly restrictions the consequences are not always as you expect, F! was once about development of engineering expertise it appears now to be about stunting that development rather than allowing it to flourish
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Old 23 Mar 2015, 21:30 (Ref:3518787)   #13
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Just a quick thought:
Isn't it the TEAMS they need to limit their spending, rather than the engine manufacturers?

I can't stand this engine freeze rubbish. We already have the teams handcuffed with their chassis designs as it is.

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Old 23 Mar 2015, 22:09 (Ref:3518799)   #14
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Just a quick thought:
Isn't it the TEAMS they need to limit their spending, rather than the engine manufacturers?

Selby
It's not quite that simple, is it though? Not talking specific amounts, but the current power-units are costing the teams approximately 3 times as much as the previous V8s, and I believe that Mercedes and Renault have stated publicly that the amount that they are paid by the teams do not cover even the basic cost, let alone realise a profit.

This is what happens when you let engineers write the rules; they never take cost into account.
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Old 23 Mar 2015, 22:44 (Ref:3518808)   #15
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This is what happens when you let engineers write the rules; they never take cost into account.
Remember that when you buy your next road car Mike;

"Hybrid - the massive cost of economy!"





Let's look at the economics:

Running 20 races,

cars of 1970s used 180 litres of fuel per race.
Hybrid 2015 cars use 100 litres.

Cost per litre $ 2.00

Savings $160 per race times 20 races equals $3200 per season

Cost of running 70s engine $5million (probably high **gainst $15million for 2015 engine hence extra cost $10million per season.

Cost increase $10 000 000
Less savings ($ 3 200)
---------------
Extra cost/ car. season $ 9 996 800

Ah, Sir you have to pay for economy!


Hand up, who is off to buy a Hybrid!

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Old 23 Mar 2015, 23:18 (Ref:3518822)   #16
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Remember that when you buy your next road car Mike;

"Hybrid - the massive cost of economy!"





Let's look at the economics:

Running 20 races,

cars of 1970s used 180 litres of fuel per race.
Hybrid 2015 cars use 100 litres.

Cost per litre $ 2.00

Savings $160 per race times 20 races equals $3200 per season

Cost of running 70s engine $5million (probably high **gainst $15million for 2015 engine hence extra cost $10million per season.

Cost increase $10 000 000
Less savings ($ 3 200)
---------------
Extra cost/ car. season $ 9 996 800

Ah, Sir you have to pay for economy!


Hand up, who is off to buy a Hybrid!
You have your finger in the dyke and the leak is getting bigger. Hybrids are here to stay and every day more and more are being put into production which is why Renault wanted them in F1 and the sports car side of racing has gone that way. All the maths in the world will not change that.
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Old 23 Mar 2015, 23:40 (Ref:3518825)   #17
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Let's look at the economics:
Somehow a paper napkin comparison of 2015 vs. 1970's F1 fuel consumption is supposed to be the definitive word on hybrid technology in road cars?

A few things that i suspect are true...

1. A case can be made that "current" hybrid technology in road cars may NOT save you money in the long term.
2. People typically do not buy hybrid road cars purely to save money on gas.
3. Road car hybrids likely has little to do with McLaren/Honda's problems.
4. Current rules makes it hard to guarantee success with 2014+ F1 PSUs.

On topic...

I am both a McLaren and Honda fan, so this entire situation suck. I am doubtful they can make this a successful season. What really puzzles me is that they are so far off. I know that there is no substitute for testing in a real F1 car and that they can't simulate everything in test rigs or mules. But given how hard Renault and Ferrari struggled last year (and that Honda watched that from the sidelines), I would have thought they would have taken this a bit more seriously. I would expect problems, but not what appears to be some type of fundamental problem that they are apparently not able to resolve after a handful of attempts. Mercedes was able to make it work in 2014 so this is not mission impossible.

That is my glass half empty thoughts. My half full thoughts is that they maybe are on the edge of a really good PSU and that they decided to REALLY push the envelope, know it is fragile and that they just now need to make it reliable. But I am having a really hard time selling myself on that version of things.

It will be really interesting to see what if any improvements happen with McLaren/Honda over the next few races.

Richard
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Old 24 Mar 2015, 08:59 (Ref:3518893)   #18
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That is my glass half empty thoughts. My half full thoughts is that they maybe are on the edge of a really good PSU and that they decided to REALLY push the envelope, know it is fragile and that they just now need to make it reliable. But I am having a really hard time selling myself on that version of things.

It will be really interesting to see what if any improvements happen with McLaren/Honda over the next few races.

Richard
Richard, having read the quite long article a few weeks ago about the all new front-engined Nissan LMP1, what you describe above would appear to be the avenue down which Nissan are travelling. They have produced a power-unit that, if they can iron out the bugs, may well be a world beater, and in some respects they are really going out on a limb. I hope that it works for them.

Taking the above into consideration, what you suggest could very well be the course of action that Honda have taken as well. I also wish them well in their endeavours.
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Old 24 Mar 2015, 11:37 (Ref:3518944)   #19
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1. A case can be made that "current" hybrid technology in road cars may NOT save you money in the long term.
Yes, you can make this case if you setup a nice strawman argument, like comparing the savings resulting from driving a $50K hybrid Lexus or Infiniti versus driving a $20K Toyota Corolla. However, personally I have done a few back of napkin calculations involving Toyota Prius, arguably the best bang for buck hybrid car out there, and based on the USA car prices, yes you can break even and even save some money if you compare buying a new Prius vs a similarly equipped Honda Accord after you drive 80,000 miles or so. In the USA, where commute distances can be long, some people can cover 80,000 miles in 3-4 years, so a Prius could make sense for them, although personally I'd still opt for a USDM Accord, because it's a bigger, classier, more refined car. Of course, my own argument in favor of Prius will fall apart if you drive say 10,000 miles a year or less or if you realize you could just buy a Corolla.. If you drive under 10,000 miles a year, a Prius makes no sense whatsoever at the current gas prices in the USA. Also, if you're so stingy, why not just drive a Yaris?

Anyways, in my opinion, Prius is not too far away from beating a Corolla in the cost-to-benefits department. If MSRPs of ALL trims of Prius were 2-3grand cheaper, then Prius would beat even Corolla in the cost-to-benefit department, which is really impressive. Prius is basically almost there. Prius is an econobox, but it's a much nicer car than Corolla. For one, the drivetrain has brilliant performance in the throttle response department up to the speed of 50mph or so, which makes Prius a nice zippy suburban commuter car, and the turn circle is quiet small making it easy to park the car in tight spaces.

You also have to recall the government regulations. Just like the European public policy had pushed people to buy more diesel cars, so does the American EPA strategy push people to buy more and more hybrid cars. In a few years, a consumer will have no choice but have to cross shop between a hybrid and non-hybrid car because of EPA corporate fleet fuel economy standards.

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Old 28 Mar 2015, 09:36 (Ref:3520804)   #20
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Still the slowest car excluding manor, but lets hope they can improve in the race, fingers crossed
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Old 30 Mar 2015, 16:20 (Ref:3521898)   #21
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The by product of Honda's performance is will it put off other manufacturers from entering if the combination of massively complicated technology, coupled with restricted testing and development time and a 'marketplace' already dominated by well established manufacturers makes it look rather a long, painfull and expensive exercise.

It's worth noting that Nissan pulled their radical LMP1 car from the first three rounds of the WEC whilst they grapple with the complicated engine technology.

In the 'old days' a manufacturer would build a test hack sports car to run engine test and development programmes, but this is no longer allowed.

The new engine regs were created to appeal to manufacturers who want to showcase their hybrid capbilities, but if you make it so hard for them to develop the engines and make them do their testing on a GP weekend, than it will only deter others surely.

Actually this is typical of the nickle and diming regulations we have no where we fly tonnes of equipmet and hundres of personnel around the globe, only to limit engines, gearboxes and tyres when they get there...
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Old 9 Jun 2015, 07:51 (Ref:3546389)   #22
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I think we can safely say at this stage that not much information left Mercedes via McLaren to Honda.
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Old 9 Jun 2015, 12:57 (Ref:3546485)   #23
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I think we can safely say at this stage that not much information left Mercedes via McLaren to Honda.
I think given where they are performance and reliability wise that is an easy conclusion to reach. IMHO, it may or may not be true. I think that at a minimum Honda knew the performance envelope of last years Mercedes. This is because McLaren should understand the aero envelope of the car and given the data they have around speed, acceleration, drag (mechanical + aero) and fuel flow they could map out what the Mercedes is capable of. So that should have given Honda a target to shoot for.

Regardless of how much info they had, it seems that Honda decided to not create a Mercedes clone as the turbo design and layout is different. I can only assume they felt that if they went down the exact same path they would always lag behind in the development war, or they felt a different path opened some doors that might be closed to Mercedes, or maybe a combo of both. Here is an interesting article (a little old)...

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/118626

Assuming that analysis is correct Honda did go down a different path. Question is if it is a dead end or they just need more development to get it where it needs to be? I think overall that Mercedes clearly has their act together and that even with an all new engine (Honda) or existing plus development tokens (Ferrari for example) that they are having a hard time making inroads.

Additionally, I think Mercedes still has most or all of their 2015 tokens remaining? I think I heard that Mercedes did release a new spec at Montreal but it was focused on reliability changes and not performance (token) changes? In addition to Ferrari using some tokens (which has helped them), I think Honda also did a combo of token improvements plus reliability changes (not that it helped!) for Montreal as well.

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Old 9 Jun 2015, 14:35 (Ref:3546519)   #24
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Something I didn't mention above is that not only is the Honda apparently down on ultimate power, but it could be that the larger issue has been driveability. We had Button talking about how scary the car was in Barcelona. It sounded like twitchy throttle response that was breaking the rear tires away without much warning. Driveability then seemed to be a focus of improvements as that was talked about on the lead up to Monaco. For Montreal, as mentioned above, Honda used two tokens plus reliability upgrades as I think they were back on trying to get more power. Unfortunately they were clearly still down on power and they had significant reliability issues all weekend. So I assume that in addition to pushing hard, they are also rushing changes. Maybe too fast. Another thing is that it is easy to put blame on the Honda PU, but we just don't know how capable is the new McLaren is on it's own. We may not know until Honda have addressed their issues.

Overall... I know we are just only about 1/3 of the way through, but I expect this season is a complete bust for McLaren and Honda. I just can't see them really turning things around. The real question is if they know what is wrong and if they have gone down a development dead end with the engine. I think they have five tokens left this season. Might they have to wait until the break between 2015 and 2016 season when they get a new batch of tokens and hopefully turn things around?

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Old 9 Jun 2015, 14:53 (Ref:3546529)   #25
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sadly they are doing the only thing they can do and that is treat the remainder of the season like a several month long test session.

its not compelling television and i cant blame people not wanting to watch a series where most of the marquee teams must use game time situations as development sessions. thats not what people expect and its really not what anyone should have to pay for.

im still a fan of budget caps, but something has to give on this front. perhaps instead of increasing team payouts, FOM should try something radical like subsidizing, if not outright paying for, group test sessions because surely F1 is better off when more than one team is living on the sharp end.
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