Hamilton tests positive for Covid-19

[Adam43]

There are two many edge effects here to compare too closely. Mid pack allows up and down. Front, only down. Back, only up.

Bu a couple of things jump out. And none of them about Russell. Lewis and Verstappen have done well in these stats considering the can’t go higher thing. Bottas has poor starts. And, those Alfa boys have done well and, while they can only go up, I feel that is very impressive. From both of them. I recall more of Kimi’s, but Antonio has done even better.

Russell, what conclusions can we draw? Not many. I suspect the reason he is behind Latifi are just those edge effects.

And Russell will very much have the opposite edge effect at the weekend.

[chillibowl]

Each year the team principles, i would assume with help from their teams, are asked who they think did the best and their results yeild a ranking of their top drivers.

Last year Russell finsihed 9th as a rookie. Clearly he is rated.

[peebee2]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

To add to the table as per requested

How many places a driver gained (positive) or lost (negative) on the first lap of every race, on average.

I recognise that there is a difference between Bottas making a howler on lap 1 and losing potentially 15+ places regularly, and Latifi who has at best 1 or 2 places to lose anyway. If both drivers fall to the back of the grid - in the table above Bottas appears to have done much worse (you could argue he has - if throwing away points is a judge of driver performance).

The initial table was in response to claims that Russell regularly moves to the back of the field on the first lap - which is clearly not correct from the facts.
Another way to look at it is to take the following view:

If you let everyone behind pass you, you have thrown away 100% of your grid position.
If you drop five places on Lap 1 - this would only be a 25% drop for a pole sitter, whereas a 100% drop for someone qualifying in 15th. Both are equally as bad in terms of comparison with starting position.
So how do you qualify two drivers dropping 5 places, compared to two drivers falling to the back of the grid?

One method is to look at how many points they lost on the first lap. This wouldn't help with the Russell debate though, because he has never made the top ten. So maybe a better option is to consider how much of their grid position they lose on average?

So to give an example, on average Hamilton qualifies in position 1.6. His average position at the end of lap one is 0.27 places back. So on average, he loses 16.875% of his qualifying in lap one.
Russell qualifies in an average of 15.4. His average position at the end of lap one is 0.07 places back. So on average, he loses 0.45% of his qualifying on lap one.

So for the whole field, the results show that:

I'm not going to claim it is a perfect system - and there is clearly still interpretation of results and an imbalance caused by qualifying.

But in response to the original comment that '[Russell] normally manages to get to the back well within the first lap' - then I put forward the fact that he drops an average of just 0.07 places on the first lap, which represents just being overtaken by just 0.45% of his qualifying performance lost in the first lap.

Again - this doesn't stand him out as an exceptional driver - but it must surely confirm that he qualifies well and consistently delivers a solid first lap?

Thank you for the big effort. It’s certainly a very interesting read.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

But in response to the original comment that '[Russell] normally manages to get to the back well within the first lap' - then I put forward the fact that he drops an average of just 0.07 places on the first lap, which represents just being overtaken by just 0.45% of his qualifying performance lost in the first lap.

Quoting myself to correct a very messy sentence:

But in response to the original comment that '[Russell] normally manages to get to the back well within the first lap' - then I put forward the fact that he drops an average of just 0.07 places on the first lap, which represents just 0.45% of his qualifying performance being lost.

[GT6]

To get back onto the Covid test part of this thread, has any other member of the Mercedes team tested positive yet? Lewis must have got it from somewhere

[ascarracinguk]

Originally Posted by GT6

To get back onto the Covid test part of this thread, has any other member of the Mercedes team tested positive yet? Lewis must have got it from somewhere

Rumour has it that Roscoe went on a bender with 23 hot pooches between races, shared a straw while snorting some ‘powder’ and passed it onto Lewis.

[schanche]

Fantastic opportunity for George to step into Lewis shoes, unfortunate the COVID situation for Lewis just shows that all the precautions that formula 1 have put in place COVID still rises its ugly head.Just hope George takes it all in his stride and doesn’t let the pressure get to him! to be on par with Bottas or there or there about is all we can ask for a great chance for I hope a future star in F1.

[brands]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

I just wanted to quote this - to recognise that you at least agree qualifying in 14th is an impressive feat.

Coincidentally, something he has been able to do (or better) six times this season.

So just to clarify - if qualifying in a Williams in 14th is impressive (by your own admission).
His racing record shows him completing:
40% of laps in 14th place or better.
97% of laps in 18th or better.
3% of laps in 19th or 20th.
2 laps of the entire season in 20th.

So accepting that the Williams is the worst car on the grid, Russell's performances have been:
Impressive at least 40% of the time.
Better than expected 97% of the time.
Below expectations for 2 laps.

Nice

[Adam43]

You do have to factor in retirements. Edge effect. How many places ahead of last position might tell us something (might).

[Oldtony]

Can I go back to my post #121.


What or how can you factor into these figures the advantage gained by having tyres etc at optimum temps because if you are on the back row you are last to arrive at the grid?

[Adam43]

For a normal grid I don’t think it is that critical. Front to back there could be a significant advantage, but you arrive only a short time after the guy in front who you are battling with.

Any advantage you have will be the same the whole way down the grid. 20th to 19th similar to 2nd to 1st. Although cooling isn’t linear and tyre operating temperature impact on performance isn’t linear either.

Whatever, to your closest rivals, it is low.

The only time we do see it being important is during a SC restart where they have allowed the lapped cars to pelt round to catch up.

[bathurst77]

But nobody has addressed the question

Where does he need to qualify and finish before we say "deserved the drive, showed talent, good job"

What number is high enough to silence the critics and please his supporters?

Say it before the race and then on monday we can all agree he was a hit/dud

[bathurst77]

IM gunna say top 6 qually and finish with no major crashes is a good result.
Anything better is star stuff

below 8 ora BIG crash is ..."next please?"

[Adam43]

It depends what happens!

Is the point of sport to be right about it? ‘cus I’ll tell you something we all know bugger all! Or is it to enjoy it? Let’s assume it is to enjoy it and this is just for fun rather than demonstrating internet prowess. We’ve gone so far up our own bottoms recently I worry the conversation after will be impossible. I hope I am wrong on this.



Q 2nd is very good, 3rd good, 4th OK, 5th bit disappointed.
Podium is good. 4th OK.

I reserve the right to think he’s only done so so if he wins it and it’s been very good even if he ends up eighth.

Can’t really judge till we see how it progresses as well as the result.

[Skam85]

Originally Posted by bathurst77

But nobody has addressed the question

Where does he need to qualify and finish before we say "deserved the drive, showed talent, good job"

What number is high enough to silence the critics and please his supporters?

Say it before the race and then on monday we can all agree he was a hit/dud

Ahem

Originally Posted by Skam85

If he is indeed "Mr Saturday" as we hear so very often from Crofty every qualifying session, then (mechanical issues aside) there is no reason why his car should not be in the top two rows of the grid.

From there you would be expecting a podium, top five at worst.

If Hulk can go and put the Racing Point into P3 having done just one race prior for the best part of a year, I fail to see a reason why George shouldn't be able to put the utterly dominant Mercedes toward the front of the grid.

[RWill2073]

Originally Posted by bathurst77

But nobody has addressed the question

Where does he need to qualify and finish before we say "deserved the drive, showed talent, good job"

What number is high enough to silence the critics and please his supporters?

Say it before the race and then on monday we can all agree he was a hit/dud

Originally Posted by RWill2073

Where was albon in relation to max his first race with red bull? I'd say if russell stays a little closer than that to bottas, wherever that leaves him in the order, I'd think he's had a successful week.

I dont think it matters what position he qualifies or finishes. More how close does he stay to bottas? And without looking it up, although that link to stats earlier was cool, I'm gonna guess albon was somewhere around 45 seconds off verstappen his first race with red bull. So if russell stays within 20-30 seconds of bottas, whether its 1-2, 1-4, or 4-5, 4-9 finishing positions for the two, he's had a successful week.

[VIVA GT]

I heard an interesting snippet about George Russell on TV this morning. Apparently he is 5 inches taller than Lewis and one thing he is going to do to help him squeeze into the car this weekend is to go down from size 11 boots to size 10...

[Knowlesy]

Originally Posted by Adam43

It depends what happens!

Is the point of sport to be right about it? ‘cus I’ll tell you something we all know bugger all! Or is it to enjoy it? Let’s assume it is to enjoy it and this is just for fun rather than demonstrating internet prowess. We’ve gone so far up our own bottoms recently I worry the conversation after will be impossible. I hope I am wrong on this.



Q 2nd is very good, 3rd good, 4th OK, 5th bit disappointed.
Podium is good. 4th OK.

I reserve the right to think he’s only done so so if he wins it and it’s been very good even if he ends up eighth.

Can’t really judge till we see how it progresses as well as the result.

The weird track could throw up a massive curveball in qualifying that could either flatter or embarrass. That could be the weekend right there.

If Russell gets the drive for Abu Dhabi we can probably make a more rounded judgement but, even then, not comprehensive.

The only people who can judge properly are Mercedes themselves with the raw data, because us lot will all have different perspectives on whatever happens and possibly our own agendas.

[S griffin]

Exactly, Merc will now be able to tell whether he's good enough for the seat and whether he has the work ethic too, regardless of results.

[gert]

Originally Posted by bathurst77

But nobody has addressed the question

Where does he need to qualify and finish before we say "deserved the drive, showed talent, good job"

What number is high enough to silence the critics and please his supporters?

Say it before the race and then on monday we can all agree he was a hit/dud

I did (not the qualifying bit though)

Originally Posted by gert

I think everything less than 5th should be seen as diappointing (*), let's say behind Bottas - Verstappen - Albon - Perez (order to be established)
A podium would be an excellent result.

(*) same if Vandoorne or Hulkenberg got the drive

[Greem]

Originally Posted by bathurst77

But nobody has addressed the question

Where does he need to qualify and finish before we say "deserved the drive, showed talent, good job"

What number is high enough to silence the critics and please his supporters?

Say it before the race and then on monday we can all agree he was a hit/dud

Yeah, I did:

Originally Posted by Greem

Personally I care not one jot where he finishes, I just think it's an awesome opportunity for him and I'm very pleased that everything has aligned to make it happen. I'll be dead chuffed if he's in the top 3, and a bit disappointed if he's down the back, but it will realistically only reflect on him. Not that that will stop the post-race shenanigans on the internet, mind you!

Some people in the past have raced for more than one team in a season. George has the completely unique opportunity of being the first person ever to race for two different teams in one season at the same track (albeit a different layout)

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by bathurst77

But nobody has addressed the question

Where does he need to qualify and finish before we say "deserved the drive, showed talent, good job"

What number is high enough to silence the critics and please his supporters?

Say it before the race and then on monday we can all agree he was a hit/dud

As I said before (here or somewhere else), on the basis of a single race, we should be saying nothing much at all, unless he is exceptional or dreadful....

Originally Posted by S griffin

Exactly, Merc will now be able to tell whether he's good enough for the seat and whether he has the work ethic too, regardless of results.

Exactly?

No, not in my opinion. After one race?

[S griffin]

Some in the team might just be able to spot the talent and if he gives good technical feedback, that would help him no end

[Born Racer]

Russell has just gone first and Bottas is 0.3 behind. Maybe Mercedes won't sign Hamilton for next year.

[peebee2]

At the moment it looks like I might need to scrape some egg off my face to make some humble pie! Early days though LOL.