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Old 14 Jun 2019, 09:15 (Ref:3910041)   #16
wolfhound
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wolfhound should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridwolfhound should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridwolfhound should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
On the constructors front by my calculations Mercedes could have the championship by Singapore or Russia if the two top teams keep up their current scoring averages.
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Old 25 Jun 2019, 07:28 (Ref:3914065)   #17
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Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!
Sorry for not replying earlier :-)

Yes, in terms of absolute impossibility, at current rate (updated after France), Mercs would get the title in Japan or Mexico, as you said.

(BTW, in general terms, the numbers of GPs to get the title with absolute certainty would be: n = GPTG/(1+Gap/(44*GPs)), where GPTG is races to go, Gap is current points gap and GPs is number of races already done)

But in terms of very high probability (>99%, almost certainty) the future is much bleaker: Red Bull is already out of the title and Ferrari can be out in the very next race.

Something very, very fundamental has to change for Ferrari can remount the 140 deficit it currently has. Probably it doesn't have any precedent in F1 past, but I have not looked into it. (In Drivers's Championship we have the case of Raikkonen's title...).
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Old 25 Jun 2019, 07:44 (Ref:3914066)   #18
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New gaps after GP France:

Code:
     Gap   ORG  +10  +25
HAM  187
BOT  -36   9.98  -1  ---
VET  -76  21.1  ---  -15
VER  -87  24.1  ---   -4
LEC -100  27.7  ---  +10
Code:
     Gap   ORG  +44
mer  338        
fer -140  38.8  -16
rbr -201  55.7  ---
Now even Bottas is in a difficult position (approx 10%) to overcome the gap. Leclerc is out and Vettel and Verstappen are almost out of the title (<1% is out of the title for me, it is a ORG of 25 or more).

If Verstappen doesn't get more points than Hamilton in the next race he will be "officially" out (ORG > 25). Same with Vettel if he loses 11 points. Respecting Leclerc, he has to recover 14 points to Lewis to come back to life (altough very probably to no avail).

In the teams' table, only Ferrari has a chance to fight Mercedes, and this chance is small. If Ferrari loses the next race, it probably will be out too. I remind you that, in this discussion, a <1% chance is not a realistic chance to get the title.
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Old 4 Jul 2019, 13:23 (Ref:3915858)   #19
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Gaps after Austria:
Code:
Drivers
     Gap   ORG  +10  +25
HAM  197
BOT  -31   8.9   -3  --- Contender
VER  -71  20.5  ---  -12 Almost out
VET  -74  21.4  ---   -9 Almost out
LEC  -92  26.6  ---  +10 Out
Code:
Teams
     Gap   ORG  +43
mer  363        
fer -135  38.97   -8 Almost out
rbr -194  56.0   --- Out
Ironically, Vettel and Leclerc are in a slightly worse position than before even if they got more points than Hamilton. It is due to now there is one less race to go and then the significance of a given gap is bigger.

Botas is in the limit as contender, if he loses 3 points to Lewis in the next race, he will pass to be "Struggling", i.e. less than 10% chance to overcome the gap with Hamilton.

Leclerc would need gain 10 points to Hamilton (always in the next race) to get into a minimal likelyhood of getting the title. Meanwhile, Verstappen and Vettel will be out of title chase (with at least 1% of chance) if they lose 12 and 9 points, respectively, with LH.

About teams championship, Ferrari has slightly worsened its chances (due to the same reason as formerly mentioned) and it is nearing the limit for being out of the championship. If they lose 8 points to mercs, they will "achieve" that. Of course RedBull is already out.

In short, things are not exactly exciting respecting titles this season.
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Old 6 Jul 2019, 18:19 (Ref:3916187)   #20
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alc59 should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
Well done Schummy on an intriguing analysis. It's a bit of an ask, but how does the technique look when applied tp a previous season or two?
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