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Old 29 May 2021, 04:23 (Ref:4053715)   #1
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Teammates comparison (and other numbers)

Five GPs already done so there is some amount of info to compare drivers in the same team. As "classically" I do, I count who "wins" in qualifying and who wins in the race, in each GP, making a "Total" and "subtotals" for only qualies and for only races.

Yes, this is confuse. It is my style.

Let's go to the table of "points of comparisons:

Code:
        BAH IMO POR SPA MON   TOT GRD RAC  Prb              
HAM-BOT  11  11  01  11  01 = 8-2 3-2 5-0  89%  Advantage HAM(*)
VER-PER  11  01  11  11  11 = 9-1 4-1 5-0  98%  Busted by VER
LEC-SAI  11  11  01  11  10 = 8-2 4-1 4-1  89%  Advantage LEC
RIC-NOR  10  10  00  11  00 = 4-6 3-2 1-4  25%  Equality
ALO-OCO  10  00  00  00  00 = 1-9 1-4 0-5  98%  Busted by OCO
VET-STR  00  00  11  00  11 = 4-6 2-3 2-3  25%  Equality
(*)BOT almost busted by HAM in races
For example: "01" for VER-PER in IMO means Verstappen lost to Perez in Imola in qualification and won against Perez in the race. "9-1" means Verstappen beat Perez 9 out of 10 times, being 4-1 in qualy and 5-0 in races.

The "probability percentage" shows the level of certainty about the dominant driver (so far) being really better, against being apparently better just by random chance. For example, 98% for Ocon vs Alonso means there is only a probability of 2% that 9-1 was produced by chance if the two drivers were performing equally well. So, 9-1 is very "significant". However, the 6-4 score of Norris vs Ricciardo has only a 25%, meaning it is a score easily got just by chance if those two drivers were performing at the same level (like throwing 10 times a coin).

I call "busted" when one driver is "significantly" worse than the other. I.e. when data "proves" he has been worse. Currently, I happen to use "almost busted", "busted" and "utterly busted" for >90%, >95% and >99% of probabilities. I name "Equality" when probability is weaker than 50% and "Advantage" when it is stronger but not yet significant ("busted").

IMO:

-- Alonso is being demolished (there is not another softer word to describe it) by Ocon. F1 is about results and we know that first races establish a pattern difficult to bend (let's remember "my namesake" Schummy against Rosberg). Anyway, maybe, maybe it is due to Alonso being still "rusty."

-- Leclerc has a strong advantage against Sainz; its is as strong as Lewis vs Valtteri. Many people assumes HAM is clearly beating BOT but applauds how well Sainz is doing against Leclerc . Carlos loses 1-4 in both qualies and races (and, yes, the last race was in Carlos' favor due to "random circumstances"). Sainz is a very likable person and a great driver, and still new in Ferrari, but results are results.

It is interesting the comparison of Sainz vs Leclerc with Leclerc vs Vettel in 2019. In the whole season, VET beat LEC just 11-9 (essentially not significant) but beat LEC 4-1 in the first 5 races (like LEC vs SAI), reaching a peak of 6-1 in the seventh race (not still busted, though). Anyway, Sainz is not "busted" yet by Leclerc, in terms of probabilities, so let's see.

-- Vettel has stopped the threat of Stroll busting him, same as Ricciardo versus Norris. I think Stroll is a competent driver but I also think Norris is a harder pattern to be measured against. So, Vettel's reputation is somehow more at risk here.

Enough of this chitchat, in fact it is just data for you to evaluate and reach conclusions!
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Old 30 May 2021, 13:58 (Ref:4053836)   #2
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Thanks for the breakdowns.

I dont know what to say about Alonso. Moreso as i had long ago (and clearly incorrectly) written Ocon off as a never was.

Maybe Ocon really is that good?

vettel and ric just now getting proper miles in. Think next phase of the season will be far more even between them and their teammates.

perez is more difficult imo. Maybe trying a bit to hard and also needing more miles but also clearly willing to play for the team first?

Last edited by chillibowl; 30 May 2021 at 14:03.
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Old 3 Jun 2021, 00:48 (Ref:4054399)   #3
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Perez seems to become more "alive" in Sundays. We know he always has had a good management of races. Anyway, "living" with Max in terms of speed is difficult.

It is ironic that the only "1" he has against MV is in qualy... but it is completely not significant from a statistical POV. I suppose he will get, across the season, better results in races than in qualifications.
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Old 3 Jun 2021, 02:07 (Ref:4054401)   #4
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I think you are right there. It presumably will get closer through the season, albeit more and more statistical certain too!
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Old 3 Jun 2021, 10:33 (Ref:4054420)   #5
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Checo is second to none in terms of tyre management. As you say it's hard to get close to Max on raw speed, but the important thing is Perez is consistent over a whole race distance
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Old 7 Jun 2021, 12:35 (Ref:4055113)   #6
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Update after the GP in the superb Baku's circuit.

........BAH IMO POR SPA MON AZB TOT GRD RAC Prb
HAM-BOT 11 11 01 11 01 10 = 9-3 4-2 5-1 85% Advantage HAM
VER-PER 11 01 11 11 11 10 =10-2 5-1 5-1 96% Busted by VER
LEC-SAI 11 11 01 11 10 11 =10-2 5-1 5-1 96% Busted by LEC
RIC-NOR 10 10 00 11 00 00 = 4-8 3-3 1-5 61% Advantage NOR
ALO-OCO 10 00 00 00 00 11 = 3-9 2-4 1-5 85% Advantage OCO
VET-STR 00 00 11 00 11 11 = 6-6 3-3 3-3 00% Equality

-- Now Sainz is busted by Leclerc. I like Carlos a lot but I don't share the pretty general feeling he is somewhere near Leclerc in performance. If it comes, it will take time.
-- His compatriot, Alonso, de-busted himself from Ocon. Let's see if it remains or not this way (race was random but Saturday was brighter than usual for Fernando).
-- Ironically, the winner of the race, Checo, is still busted. What a solid race and what a stable driver he is.
-- If he had not failed in the last moment, HAM could have busted the depressed Valtteri... It seems is just "when" rather than "if".
-- Those two great drivers in tribulation, RIC and VET, had different fortunes: Ricciardo fell but he is not in immediate danger, Vettel had a genial race and now is perfectly level with Stroll (who is not slouch, anyway).

Next dangers: if Bottas or Alonso gets a double zero in France, they will be in the "Almost busted" status, which is not very honorable.
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Old 7 Jun 2021, 12:44 (Ref:4055116)   #7
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And now, as a gift , probability of WDC title (according to actual data and simulations)



...last now
VER 52% 49%
HAM 39% 37%
PER 1% 5%
NOR 2% 4%
LEC 1% 2%
BOT 1% 1%
SAI 1% 1%

Basically it continues as it was, just a (not so) little jump for Perez, and also Norris.

Finally, the evolution of those probabilities across the six races (graph). It shows two men fighting and the rest are crawling there in the mud of low probabilities.
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Old 24 Jun 2021, 07:40 (Ref:4057947)   #8
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Update after Paul Ricard.

Code:
        BAH IMO POR SPA MON AZB FRA    TOT   GRD  RAC  Prb              
HAM-BOT  11  11  01  11  01  10  11 = 11- 3  5-2  6-1  94%   Almost busted by HAM
VER-PER  11  01  11  11  11  10  11 = 12- 2  6-1  6-1  98.7% Busted by VER
LEC-SAI  11  11  01  11  10  11  00 = 10- 4  5-2  5-2  82%   Advantage LEC
RIC-NOR  10  10  00  11  00  00  00 =  4-10  3-4  1-6  82%   Advantage NOR
ALO-OCO  10  00  00  00  00  11  11 =  5- 9  3-4  2-5  58%   Advantage OCO
VET-STR  00  00  11  00  11  11  11 =  8- 6  4-3  4-3  21%   Equality
  • Sainz resurrected from the "Bustation" state, at least by now.
  • Alonso has had a second positive GP. He is still behind, though, too soon to do the victory sign.
  • Probably Perez and Bottas will be utterly busted (the ultimate classification)
    pretty soon. However I don't thing it is a shame taking in account what teammates they have to bear.
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Old 24 Jun 2021, 08:01 (Ref:4057949)   #9
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Just to look deeper in the qualification (grid) comparison between teammates, I am following some teams, noting the gap in each GP and trying to extract what difference in one lap speed they have.

They are the most intriguing pairs in my particular view. Those are the gaps in qualifying lap times.

LECLERC(+) - SANZ(-)
+0.66%
+0.62%
-0.34%
+0.14%
+0.38%
+0.35%
-0.16%
Median +0.35% (+0.35%,+0.38%)
(Between parenthesis, the possible change in the median in the short term)

RICCIARDO(+)-NORRIS(-)
+0.05%
+0.06%
-0.92%
+0.51%
-0.39%
+0.80%
-0.14%
median +0.05% (-0.14%, +0.06%)

VETTEL(+)-STROLL(-)
-1.64%
-0.24%
+0.32%
-0.14%
+0.26%
+inf%
+inf%
median +0.26% (-0.14%, +0.32%)

ALONSO(+)-OCON(-)
+1.66%
-0.51%
-0.53%
-0.74%
-1.02%
+0.08% (Q2)
+0.44%
median -0.51% (-0.52%, +0.08%)

Clear advantage for Leclerc (a third of a second)
Very equal lap times in McLaren
Now Vettel has advantage but this statistic is still very unstable.
Very big advantage for Ocon ... but it is a very unstable statistic and could change very quickly.

In short:
Leclerc > Sainz
Ricciardo = Norris
Vettel ? Stroll
Alonso ? Ocon
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Old 24 Jun 2021, 08:08 (Ref:4057956)   #10
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Very interesting stats again, thanks Schummy
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Old 24 Jun 2021, 12:09 (Ref:4057977)   #11
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Thanks to you!
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Old 24 Jun 2021, 12:44 (Ref:4057979)   #12
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Table showing probabilities of being WDC, assuming approx same level of performance in the remaining GPs.

"last" are the probs before the last race, "now" are probs after the last race. "Contender" is having about 5% of chance or more. "Can be contender" means driver can become a Contender in the next GP.
Code:
     last  now 
VER   49%  64%     Contender
HAM   37%  28%     Contender
PER    5%   4%  +9 Can be contender
NOR    4%   2% +17 Can be contender
BOT    1%   1% 
LEC    2%      
SAI    1%
  • Perez can become a contender if he achieves 9 points over Max in next race (and doesn't lose more then 3 points to Hamilton). I think it is not easy but not extremely hard to happen (Azerbaijan?).
  • More interestingly for unexpected, Norris can be contender next race if he gets 17 points over Verstappen and 5 over Hamilton. Basically, he would have to be 1st or 2nd, Max having a disaster day and Lewis somehow behind him. I think it is an intriguing possibility if Macs do a further jump ahead and Verstappen has one of those unlucky days.
Finally a graph showing the evolution of probabilities across the season, so far.
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Old 24 Jun 2021, 13:22 (Ref:4057988)   #13
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As I am "on a roll" putting numbers here , I will add a strange Teams Classification Table. It is calculated with the worst classified (or whatever) car in each race, scoring 0 points if it is the last car and until 18 points if it is the 2nd (obviously the "worst" car in the team cannot be the winner!).

For example, in the GP of France, Hass was last and got 0 points, Williams was 18th and got 2 points,..., Red Bull was 3rd, having 17 points, Mercedes had 16 points with Bottas, etc.

In the official FIA table, Red Bull and Mercedes are comfortably 1st and 2nd, but in this "weird" table, Merc is not even second and before Paul Ricard he was 4th! (because of its disasters/bad-luck with Bottas). Moreover, McLaren could "easily" overtake Red Bull for 1st position in the next race.

Apart from that kind of details, this classification is not crazy, it shows the general performance of teams, with a clear structure in three classes: High Class, Middle Class and... Those Two.

Perhaps the most disruptive event is when a top car gets touched in the start and becomes the first retirement, thus its team getting 0 points. It can be seen as harsh or "unfair" but... is not it funny for the classification? Lets call it the "DRS" of our system , it can be unfair but adds to the show.

(I am putting so many words just to try to "sell" the product )

Code:
    BA IM PO SP MO AZ FR  TOT  FIA
RBR 15  9 16 15 16  2 17 = 90   1 =0
MCL 13 14 11 12  8 11 14 = 83   3 +1
MER 17  2 17 17  1  5 16 = 75   2 -1
FER 12 15  9 13  0 12  4 = 65   4 =0
AST  5  5  6  7 12  1 10 = 46   6 +1
TAU  3  8  5  0  4 13  7 = 40   5 -1
ALF  8  6  0  5  9  9  3 = 40   8 +1
ALP  1 10 12  3  7  0  6 = 39   7 -1
WIL  2  0  2  4  5  3  2 = 18   9 =0
HAA  0  3  1  1  2  6  0 = 13  10 =0
In the last two columns I have put the comparison with official FIA ranking.
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Old 1 Jul 2021, 13:59 (Ref:4059170)   #14
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Teammates comparison after ... after, how they call it?... Well, let's say Austria 1.
Code:
        BAH IMO POR SPA MON AZB FRA STY .. TOT . GRD .RAC .Prb              
HAM-BOT  11  11  01  11  01  10  11  11 = 13- 3  6-2  7-1  98%   Busted by HAM
VER-PER  11  01  11  11  11  10  11  11 = 14- 2  7-1  7-1  99.6% Utterly busted by VER
LEC-SAI  11  11  01  11  10  11  00  10 = 10- 6  6-2  5-3  55%   Advantage LEC
RIC-NOR  10  10  00  11  00  00  00  00 = 4 -12  3-5  1-7  92%   Almost busted by NOR
ALO-OCO  10  00  00  00  00  11  11  11 = 7 - 9  4-4  3-5  20%   Equality
VET-STR  00  00  11  00  11  11  11  00 = 8 - 8  4-4  4-4   0%   Equality
  • Bottas finally busted by Lewis. Not big surprise here.
  • Perez "utterly" busted by Verstappen. "Utterly" is the word I will use when the probability of being true is >=99%. I will consider all the "utterlies" like a definitive "bustedment" and probably I will not follow further that pair because I consider the case already settled. Checo is a great driver (and a great personality) but we can agree that Max outperforms him.
  • Ricciardo is at the edge of the climb. He is a truly great in F1 so I find a bit unexpected the degree of beating he is taken, no matter how good Norris could be.
  • Sainz in "blocking" the "busting" from Leclerc, but the ... monegasque (= french in disguise) ... has advantage. BTW, great race by him in ... "Austria 1".
  • Alonso is surging from the swamp like a beaten character in Saint Sieya (very opaque anime reference). He is quickly reaching Ocon (I suppose Ocon is sweating for some reason).
  • Vettel-Stroll are in a sort of stall. Sorry but I have to use THE PHRASE: "let's see how it develops".
I have explored the possible trends of some drivers, in the sense of performing progressively better and better or the opposite. The challenge here is to separate what is just random chance and what is significant.

The stronger trend is Alonso vs Ocon, it is almost significant in statistical terms. It means that is very probable (94%) that Alonso's upward results are not due to random events.

Other notable trends, but not yet significant, are Sainz vs Leclerc (88%) and Norris vs (poor) Ricciardo (83%).

Those trends are "defensive" in the case of the two spaniards (i.e. it protects their current disadvantage) and "aggresive" in Norris's case because it favours his KO to Daniel.

Well, I think I don't have any other silly thing to say, so... let's end this and "see how it develops".
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Old 5 Jul 2021, 13:45 (Ref:4059948)   #15
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Updating after "Austria 2".
Code:
        BAH IMO POR SPA MON AZB FRA STY AUS .. TOT . GRD .RAC .Prb              
HAM-BOT  11  11  01  11  01  10  11  11  10 = 14- 4  7-2  7-2  97%   Busted by HAM
LEC-SAI  11  11  01  11  10  11  00  10  00 = 11- 7  6-3  5-4  52%   Advantage LEC
RIC-NOR  10  10  00  11  00  00  00  00  00 = 4 -14  3-6  1-8  97%   Busted by NOR
ALO-OCO  10  00  00  00  00  11  11  11  11 = 9 - 9  5-4  4-5   0%   Equality
VET-STR  00  00  11  00  11  11  11  00  10 = 9 - 9  5-4  4-5   0%   Equality
  • RIC is now "officially" busted by NOR. And things don't look rosy in the short future. As we are progressively knowing, Norris is becoming a really formidable driver, but Ricciardo, formerly considered as one of the very best, probably is going to see his career damaged because of this season.
  • Sainz continues recovering from a flaky start of the season. Still, Leclerc has an advantage.
  • Alonso and Vettel have achieved a tied score against their less illustrious (but younger) teammates. Particularly in the Alonso's case, the trend is powerful in his favor in the short and middle term.
Finally, I attach a graph showing the evolution of probabilities of getting the championship across the season so far (done with simulations from the successive results).

IMO, the most important thing is Hamilton is near of a critical point: if he loses 5 or more points in the next race, he would be out of practical contention, this mean his probabilities would fall below 5%. This low level of expectations is hard to get out of it. Historically, few people has recovered and overcame it. It is interesting that in the 9th race out of 23, Hamilton/Mercedes is in this position.

The critical stat that points to the likelihood of overcoming a point gap is the ratio between gap and square root of number of races to go. When this number is beyond 10, the situation becomes darker and not promising at all, although is not terminal, of course. Intuitively, it is like Max reaching the last race with a 10 or more points advantage. It is possible to get over it but if we look at the races in this season, one can see it is not easy at all. This is the state that Lewis is reaching.
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