[Rumours] 2022 Silly Season

[Adam43]

This is an internet discussion forum at its peak!

[Skam85]

It's Alfa Romeo.

https://www.formula1.com/en/results.html/2021/team.html

[Skam85]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

I think there's more chance of GR winning the WDC next season than there is of seeing DR near the podium for GR's first win.

So you think that Russell beating Hamilton and Verstappen to the title over the course of 20+ races is more likely that Ricciardo finishing on the podium for Russell's first win? Interesting.

[broadrun96]

Well there is only one chance for him to be on the podium with the first win, and so far he has not covered himself in glory in the McLaren while his teammate has a few podium appearances.

I would give GR a VERY slight chance at winning but a zero percent chance to Ric beating out LH, MV and likely LN, SP for that podium spot.

[Skam85]

Originally Posted by broadrun96

Well there is only one chance for him to be on the podium with the first win, and so far he has not covered himself in glory in the McLaren while his teammate has a few podium appearances.

I would give GR a VERY slight chance at winning but a zero percent chance to Ric beating out LH, MV and likely LN, SP for that podium spot.

If I had the time and mental energy to figure out the % likelihood of DR and GR sharing the podium for GR's first win vs GR winning the title I'd do it.... but I'm sure there is some genius on here that could figure it out precisely

If GR wins early in the season, there is an increased likelihood of a "different" podium, without even factoring in improvement from McLaren & Ricciardo.

We can all agree though that the chance of either can be classified as 'low'.

[Tourer]

Originally Posted by Richard Casto

I swear there is a video somewhere that I can't find right now. I think it might be on the official Formula 1 channel. Regardless, they are talking to team bosses and I think they are asking them to introduce themselves and they are struggling to say the right sequence of words for the team names and are looking to someone beside them (probably whoever their press secretary is) to help them.

It doesn't help when you team name is something like...

"Budweiser Bud Light Platinum Racing powered by Oracle NetSuite"

Are you Budweiser Racing, Bud Light Racing, Platinum Racing, Bud Racing, Oracle Racing, NetSuite Racing or maybe all of those at the same time?

Richard

It's on "Drive to Survive" - think might have been Season 2 but could be Season 3 - was a bit of a running joke with team owners and drivers struggling to get their team names right.

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by Tourer

It's on "Drive to Survive" - think might have been Season 2 but could be Season 3 - was a bit of a running joke with team owners and drivers struggling to get their team names right.

Thank you. Now I don't have to go to sleep wondering where I saw that!

Richard

[Tourer]

Originally Posted by peebee2

So now we have Albon confirmed at Williams, but another team with no mention of engine manufacturer in its press release. Hmmm?

No need to mention next year's engine in the PR material about driver signing - given that the increased relationship between Mercedes and Williams for 2022 has been previously announced and as a result is referenced in this Autosport article as an example.

[broadrun96]

Originally Posted by Skam85

If I had the time and mental energy to figure out the % likelihood of DR and GR sharing the podium for GR's first win vs GR winning the title I'd do it.... but I'm sure there is some genius on here that could figure it out precisely

If GR wins early in the season, there is an increased likelihood of a "different" podium, without even factoring in improvement from McLaren & Ricciardo.

We can all agree though that the chance of either can be classified as 'low'.

But FAR exceeds my ability to calculate and determine such likelihoods

[Skam85]

Originally Posted by Tourer

No need to mention next year's engine in the PR material about driver signing - given that the increased relationship between Mercedes and Williams for 2022 has been previously announced and as a result is referenced in this Autosport article as an example.

Yes but that doesn't make it fun to speculate that Team Sauber Alfa Romeo Orlen Ferrari is being powered by Tin Foil PUs next year!

[Adam43]

I’ve just read a fact on the internet. I’ve not checked it, but hey, it’s on the internet why would I need to. I liked the fact. It is superficially interesting, but means nothing.

Lewis Hamilton team mates:
Alonso - 1 year
Kovalainen - 2 years
Button - 3 years
Rosberg- 4 years
Bottas - 5 years

https://twitter.com/_supergt/status/...791915521?s=21

[Skam85]

Originally Posted by Adam43

I’ve just read a fact on the internet. I’ve not checked it, but hey, it’s on the internet why would I need to. I liked the fact. It is superficially interesting, but means nothing.

Lewis Hamilton team mates:
Alonso - 1 year
Kovalainen - 2 years
Button - 3 years
Rosberg- 4 years
Bottas - 5 years

https://twitter.com/_supergt/status/...791915521?s=21

Cool stat. Shame for symmetry purposes that Russell will likely be 2.

Unless Hamilton pulls a Rosberg this year

[broadrun96]

Well his last 2 were 4 then 5 so maybe 6 for GR?

[Tourer]

Originally Posted by Skam85

Yes but that doesn't make it fun to speculate that Team Sauber Alfa Romeo Orlen Ferrari is being powered by Tin Foil PUs next year!

Rubber bands and balsa wood, along with clockwork springs - that's the real truth behind Team Sauber Alfa Romeo Orlen Ferrari powerplants for next year - you read it here first!!

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by peebee2

Daimler AG doesn’t own an F1 team, so no.

Almost everybody I know calls Alpine “the Enstone team.”

Not wholly - the team is 1/3 Daimler, 1/3 INEOS and 1/3 Wolff.
So why call it Mercedes AMG? Because that is the name that the team is registered as - in the same way that the team running the C41 is registered as Alfa Romeo Racing Orlen.

It just seems strange that you single out Alfa Romeo in not using their registered name, but don't follow suit with other teams on the grid?

[peebee2]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Not wholly - the team is 1/3 Daimler, 1/3 INEOS and 1/3 Wolff.
So why call it Mercedes AMG? Because that is the name that the team is registered as - in the same way that the team running the C41 is registered as Alfa Romeo Racing Orlen.

It just seems strange that you single out Alfa Romeo in not using their registered name, but don't follow suit with other teams on the grid?

Yeah, nobody calls them Mercedes AMG though do they.

Nicely ignored that hardly anyone in the paddock uses the Alpine name, and not even that many referred to them as Renault. They’ll always be Enstone.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Skam85

So you think that Russell beating Hamilton and Verstappen to the title over the course of 20+ races is more likely that Ricciardo finishing on the podium for Russell's first win? Interesting.

I do - and that was without any real analysis as such. Mainly based on the fact that Ricciardo has been absent from the podium for 64 of his last 66 starts.

Looking at the statistics a bit more closely, Ricciardo has had 31 podiums in his career - none of them have been on the same occasion as a driver taking their first win. And since 2018, the periodicity of his time on the podium is decreasing.

Then looking at WDC winners in history - since 1980 alone, Rosberg, Senna, Prost, Räikkönen, and (depending on how you view the team) Button have all taken a WDC in their first season with a new team.

Do I think either is likely? Far from it. But I think there is more chance of a WDC for Russell in 2022, than Ricciardo being on the podium for his first win.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by peebee2

Nicely ignored that hardly anyone in the paddock uses the Alpine name, and not even that many referred to them as Renault. They’ll always be Enstone.

Not ignoring it - I'm just not in the paddock so can't comment on what happens 'on the inside'.

What I do know is that I have not heard anyone refer to the team as Renault, Toleman, Lotus or anything else other than Alpine this season, with the occasional not to them being a derivative of the Enstone-based registration.

On commentary, I hear the respective teams referred to as Merc (or Mercedes-Benz), Alpine and Alfa (or Alfa Romeo).

[Hawkwood]

I also think part of the Alfa Romeo/Sauber naming thing is that there are currently 2 teams called Alfa/Alpha on the grid.
While they are spelt differently, that doesn't stop plenty of people online typing Alfa Tauri or Alpha Romeo.


Also, though the F1 teams are called Alfa Romeo and Alpine, the reason for those names are very different, which to some fans means the 'legitimacy' of the names is different. Quite a lot of fans seem to feel far better about Renault naming the team after one of its own brands, rather than Alfa Romeo simply sponsoring its way on to the grid.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Hawkwood

Also, though the F1 teams are called Alfa Romeo and Alpine, the reason for those names are very different, which to some fans means the 'legitimacy' of the names is different. Quite a lot of fans seem to feel far better about Renault naming the team after one of its own brands, rather than Alfa Romeo simply sponsoring its way on to the grid.

I think this point is one that is very interesting.
A lot of (all) teams on the grid can trace their existence back to a previous incarnation, and the amount of sponsorship compared to ownership is a complex one.
I'm sure we all have our own opinions on what a team should be called - and the summary below is presented as a discussion point, not a definitive list:

Registered Name	Constructor	Common Name	Genesis	Interims
Alfa Romeo Racing Orlen	Alfa Romeo Racing	Alfa Romeo	Sauber F1 Team	Sauber Mercedes,Red Bull Sauber, BMW Sauber...
Scuderia AlphaTauri Honda	AlphaTauri	AlphaTauri	Minardi	Toro Rosso, Red Bull Toro Rosso...
Alpine F1 Team	Alpine	Alpine	Toleman	Benetton, Renault, Lotus, Lotus Renault...
Aston Martin Cognizant F1 Team	Aston Martin	Aston Martin	Jordan	Midland, Spyker, (Sahara) Force India, Racing Point Force India, Racing Point F1...
Scuderia Ferrari Mission Winnow	Ferrari	Ferrari	Ferrari	N/A...
Uralkali Haas F1 Team	Haas	Haas	Haas	N/A...
McLaren F1 Team	McLaren	McLaren	Bruce McLaren Motor Racing	Honda Marlboro McLaren, West McLaren Mercedes, Vodafone McLaren Mercedes...
Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team	Mercedes	Mercedes (Benz)	Tyrrell Racing	BAR, Honda Racing F1 Team, Brawn GP, Mercedes GP...
Red Bull Racing Honda	Red Bull Racing	Red Bull	Stewart Grand Prix	Jaguar Racing, Infiniti Red Bull, Aston Martin Red Bull...
Williams Racing	Williams	Williams	Williams Grand Prix Engineering	Albilad-Saudi Racing Team, Canon Williams, Rothmans Williams, Winfield Williams, BMW Williams, Williams Martini Racing...

I also think part of the comments regarding the team 'Enstone' stems from the Renault / Lotus naming incidents.

[Greem]

Originally Posted by Skam85

If I had the time and mental energy to figure out the % likelihood of DR and GR sharing the podium for GR's first win vs GR winning the title I'd do it.... but I'm sure there is some genius on here that could figure it out precisely

I'll give it a crack

Assuming (due to non confirmation of races yet):

20 drivers
22 races (as scheduled for 2021, but subject to change)

DR has a 3/20 chance of being on the podium in any position at any race. If we factor in GR's position being 1st (so statistical chance being 1/20), that comes down to 2/19 as there's one driver removed from the equation - George. Assuming the number of drivers stays the same throughout the season, those ratios stay the same.

So at any given race, we have:

GR 1st: 1/20 (p=0.050)
DR 2nd or 3rd: 2/19 (p=0.10526)

Taken together, that gives us a probability of 0.050 * 0.10526: p=0.00526

Meaning that for any given race, there's a half a percent chance that GR will win and DR on the podium.

HOWEVER

It gets a bit more complicated when we factor in the length of the season. George's chance of being on the top step of the podium for the first time gets better as the season progresses.

Before the season starts, he has a chance in 1/22 races (p=0.45450)
After race 1, the chance is 1/21 (p=0.04761)
After race 2, the chance is 1/20 (p=0.05000)
and so on, until the final race where his chance per race is 1/1 (p=1.0000)

HOWEVER AGAIN!

This has to be combined with the "any given race" probability, which was half a percent (give or take), which gives:

Race Percent chance
1 0.02%
2 0.05%
3 0.07%
4 0.10%
5 0.12%
6 0.14%
7 0.17%
8 0.19%
9 0.22%
10 0.24%
11 0.26%
12 0.29%
13 0.31%
14 0.33%
15 0.36%
16 0.38%
17 0.41%
18 0.43%
19 0.45%
20 0.48%
21 0.50%
22 0.53%

Not as high as you might think!

My maths is probably wrong though...

[bathurst77]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

the summary below is presented as a discussion point, not a definitive list:

Thats cool... has anyone done a full family tree of the teams that have come and gone and those sho changed identies all the way back
Ferrari being a pole.
Some teams line the team formerly known as racing point has changed names and owners so many times i cant remember when and who it wass at first

[peebee2]

Originally Posted by peebee2

There were plenty of rumours in Zandvoort of Zhou and Renault to Sauber/Alfa! Who knows…

A good source told me today that Zhou’s Dad has agreed to pay €30 million for the drive. No idea on engine, but Mr Zhou is a Ferrari nut. Mind you, so was Lawrence Strulovich.

[broadrun96]

A good source told me there's a bridge for sale, interested??

[peebee2]

Originally Posted by broadrun96

A good source told me there's a bridge for sale, interested??

But I’m in the paddock, not your bedroom.