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Old 2 Jun 2005, 08:59 (Ref:1317750)   #1
John Turner
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Would Kimi have won had the car held together?

We have debated at great length whether Mclaren should have brought Kimi in, and whether as a result of his suspensioin failure Fernando has pretty much got one hand on the title, but now for a bit of hypothetical fun.

Do you think Alonso would have passed Kimi on the last lap if that suspension had not failed?

My own view is that with Alonso scenting victory and charging and with Kimi having to drive very defensively to protect his tyre and suspension, he was going to be very vulnerable under braking, and that barring a coming together, I think Fernando would probably have snatched the win. What do you think? Remember this is just a bit of fun, and not intended for too serious a debate, or, (he said defensively) me getting castigated for starting a silly or irrelevant thread - although that will probably happen, anyway!

Any chance of a one of our nice moderators making this a poll?
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Old 2 Jun 2005, 09:05 (Ref:1317756)   #2
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It's a good hypothesis - a difficult one, though - if Raikkonen's suspension had held together then he would been able to drive a little defensively, but the sensible man says he would have been overtaken...
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Old 2 Jun 2005, 09:12 (Ref:1317767)   #3
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Well we know that Alonso's tyres weren't that good and I'm not certain whether he went faster or it was Kimi slowing that reduced the gap. I suspect that Kimi would have yielded the place because he couldn't defend properly. But it would probaly have occured into the chicane and that is a difficult place to pass if the car is in the middle of the track.

So. Yes, and or no...........................
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Old 2 Jun 2005, 09:39 (Ref:1317798)   #4
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Kicking-back should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridKicking-back should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
If Kimi had been able to get round the last lap trouble free he'd have won.

Alonso had not been catching him quickly enough.
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Old 2 Jun 2005, 09:50 (Ref:1317809)   #5
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Gabrio should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridGabrio should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
I agree with K-B on this one. On the other hand, had McLaren called him back to change the tyre, he would have lost 10 pts but gained 8. Instead, he just lost 10 pts....
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Old 2 Jun 2005, 09:58 (Ref:1317814)   #6
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gap

It would have been blummin' close. He was in the corner that was the hardest to defend when he went off, so we have to assume he would have been alright there. The best place after that is the final chicane as mentioned. That would have been exciting.

Here are the gaps after Alonso's stop:

Lap Gap
48 11.825
49 10.1
50 8.652
51 7.446
52 6.17
53 4.922
54 4.452
55 4.036
56 3.548
57 2.729
58 1.589

Also see quick graph which is attached!

It is difficult to say, but it would be a last chicane or corner job. I'll go for, er, no.
Attached Thumbnails
g.bmp  
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Old 2 Jun 2005, 09:59 (Ref:1317816)   #7
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TomS should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
I think Alonso would have found it very hard to overtake...after all he wouldnt have been able to through the hairpin as he wasnt that close so it would have to come later on in the lap and i think that Kimi would have been able to defend as Alonso's tyres wouldnt have been perfect so he would have found it hard to drive straight round him
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Old 2 Jun 2005, 10:01 (Ref:1317820)   #8
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Kicking-back should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridKicking-back should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
Bear in mind Alonso, with his points lead, would not have put himself in a "I'm coming through or we both go off" situation.
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Old 2 Jun 2005, 10:24 (Ref:1317843)   #9
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It looks as if Alonso was gaining 1 second per lap.

And with one lap to go, he was still more than 1.5 seconds behind.

So Alonso wouldn't have made it.
He could have tried to make his first attack(s) in lap 60, but the race only lasted 59 laps.
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Old 2 Jun 2005, 10:43 (Ref:1317870)   #10
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Originally Posted by Don K
It looks as if Alonso was gaining 1 second per lap.

And with one lap to go, he was still more than 1.5 seconds behind.

So Alonso wouldn't have made it.
He could have tried to make his first attack(s) in lap 60, but the race only lasted 59 laps.
I take your point, Don, but the gap was not closing in a uniform way and we don't know how much slower Kimi would have had to go to keep the car on the island on the last lap. In that situation 1.5 seconds can disappear very rapidly. I remember thinking, just before the suspension let go, that Alonso had a real chance of pipping Kimi at the post! However, it is also true, as k-b mentions, that Alonso might not have wanted to risk it. On the other hand, he too, is a racer, and that very instinct that kept Kimi out on track for the win, may have led to Fernando also taking the risk. I just think it is fun conjecturing!
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Old 2 Jun 2005, 10:45 (Ref:1317873)   #11
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Originally Posted by AdamAshmore
It would have been blummin' close. He was in the corner that was the hardest to defend when he went off, so we have to assume he would have been alright there. The best place after that is the final chicane as mentioned. That would have been exciting.

Here are the gaps after Alonso's stop:

Lap Gap
48 11.825
49 10.1
50 8.652
51 7.446
52 6.17
53 4.922
54 4.452
55 4.036
56 3.548
57 2.729
58 1.589

Also see quick graph which is attached!

It is difficult to say, but it would be a last chicane or corner job. I'll go for, er, no.
That's the info I needed so a definite yes from me.
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Old 2 Jun 2005, 11:04 (Ref:1317889)   #12
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Strangely I'd interpret a no from that information. On the previous lap he'd closed in by 1.2 seconds, and doing that again would leave him 03. seconds behind - essentially, right on his gearbox. Passing wouldn't be easy, especially as Alonso would have so much to lose and has been very good at playing the percentages all season. If anything, that is what marks him out as championship material ahead of Kimi or JPM.
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Old 2 Jun 2005, 11:07 (Ref:1317893)   #13
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Ah,

I meant yes he would have won. Not yes Alonso would have got past. As Adam said it would need to be at the chicane because both had previous grip problems at the hairpin and I would expect Alonso to play the percentages at that point.
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Old 2 Jun 2005, 11:42 (Ref:1317926)   #14
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Good discussion point.

I think, from the information provided by Adam that for some reason, Alonso also started to slow down as his gains on Kimi started to lessen. Maybe Alonso was also having tyre problems towards, something we will never know.

So I will say "No!"
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Old 2 Jun 2005, 11:47 (Ref:1317933)   #15
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Originally Posted by Peter Mallett
Ah,

I meant yes he would have won. Not yes Alonso would have got past. As Adam said it would need to be at the chicane because both had previous grip problems at the hairpin and I would expect Alonso to play the percentages at that point.
Sorry, my fault. I posed one question in the thread title and posed it the opposite way round in my post!

It also looks as though I'm in the minority ....... again!
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