IMSA: 2020

[MaskedRacer]

I think it would be a good move for IMSA to mandate that the Sebring 12 hours not be a full points paying event now to not penalize people who can't make the trip. Hopefully the event can still go ahead. Attention to details like this might allow it to be so.

[seanyb505]

12 hour postponed to take place instead of Encore.

https://sportscar365.com/imsa/iwsc/1...season-finale/

[broadrun96]

Man, late on the call but had to be made.

Now, what does the sportscar landscape look like then? How many cars do we lose with sponsor loss?

[Akrapovic]

The correct decision has been made.

[skycafe]

Long Beach now seems to have been canceled https://www.presstelegram.com/long-b...virus-concerns

[skycafe]

"Postponed" https://sportscar365.com/imsa/iwsc/l...o-coronavirus/

[Purist]

How realistic is it to postpone a street circuit event though? Seems like it's as good as cancelled.

My real worry at this point is, aside from maybe NASCAR and F1, how long can any of these series remain afloat while inactive? And then, what about the venues? Will factories pull out, or privateers dry up from the overall economic impact?

I guess, I just want some confidence that there will be a 2021 season for IMSA, IndyCar, SRO GT, FIA WEC, etc.

[broadrun96]

If all the places to actually postpone street races and reschedule it, it's Long Beach. They actually love the race throughout much of the city. I think they could convince everyone it's a celebration of life returning to "normal."

I do think you raise VERY valid points about cars at the rear of the field in NASCAR, and Indy here in the US and many IMSA, WEC, ELMS, SRO sportscar programs. LMP2 teams have to be scared and hoping their sponsors'/drivers' companies have the cash to run teams later. Similar to what GTD teams and AM classes everywhere most be fearing. It will be a VERY tough recovery from the downtime, and longer it goes it feels like the recovery will be even longer. It just feels like it's going to be an odd landscape and hypercar may be doomed or very limited. Rescheduling races may help but if the money was used to survive and keep employees around without profits coming in there may not be much leftover.

[skycafe]

Originally Posted by Purist

My real worry at this point is, aside from maybe NASCAR and F1, how long can any of these series remain afloat while inactive? And then, what about the venues? Will factories pull out, or privateers dry up from the overall economic impact?

I guess, I just want some confidence that there will be a 2021 season for IMSA, IndyCar, SRO GT, FIA WEC, etc.

I wonder the same thing. The tracks depend on revenue from spectators, and without spectators what happens? What about the vendors of everything from t-shirts to hotdogs and beer?

What takes breath away is being realistic that the racing world problems are a tiny drop compared to all the other sporting events involved, and so many other things like trade shows, conventions that will go on hiatus. Hits to hospitality companies, transportation companies are going to be devastating to companies and personnel. Easy to see why the trading safety keeps tripping on the US stock market.

[MaskedRacer]

See ya everybody until May. I guess its going to be a long break ahead of us. Might be off the forums until then.

[RWill2073]

I understand some of this, and I more understand postponing international races more than a lot that has happened. But what I don't understand is why this is such a panic-inducing thing. Yes, it is more deadly than the flu. But 3% is still a small amount. And when you figure how many thousands and probably millions have had it and just thought they had a big or the flu, and never went to the doctor, or were treated as flu patients rather than coronavirus patients, that 3% is probably much closer to 1% or less. Also, some states have shut schools down, which really doesn't make sense to me, because this thing seems to be pretty mild for children, if it bothers them at all. It seems to be specifically geared toward the elderly and people with underlying conditions.

I get that children and spectators and whoever will track it all around and come into contact with older people or those with underlying conditions, but let's face it, that has probably been going on in the US for months by now, and longer around the globe. I just don't see it as as big of a threat as it is being made out to be. Not enough to cripple the economy, completely shut down all aspect of life like this. I don't know. Can we call this a panicdemic as well as a pandemic?

[RWill2073]

Originally Posted by RWill2073

So.... the f1 forum is talking about possible cancelled races/non points races because of coronavirus...

With an international grid, cars, teams and drivers from Italy, among other hotspots, has there been any discussion of it affecting sebring? Or any sportscar races?

To be clear, I don't think it's as bad as made out to be, unless you're over 70 or so or have respiratory issues, in which case this is serious, but with all the panic/worry/restrictions, I'm wondering if this will have an impact on imsa.

Also, I posted this 6 March. Boy, that escalated quickly.

[Purist]

RW, the Spanish Influenza of 1918-20 was ~3%, and killed ~50 million people worldwide (mid-range estimate). Today's world population is multiples of what it was then. Even if this drops to 1%, that's still 10x the mortality rate of the common flu.

And this virus has a much higher mortality rate among the most effected groups. At the moment, they're looking at something of perhaps ~8% for those who are older or have underlying conditions. And the world population is aging overall.

A lot of teachers and school faculty are older. General guidance is for those 60 and older to be careful. However, where my sister is, in Colorado Springs, they say you should consider the same precautions for anyone 50 and older.

Furthermore, this seems to be at least comparably contagious to just about anything we've ever seen. And the problem with that is, like with Measles for instance, to keep outbreaks at bay, you need a ~95% vaccination rate of the general population.

Finally, maybe the biggest problem is that, a flood of patients would overwhelm every country's existing healthcare infrastructure in a matter of weeks. An ER doc friend said there are only something like 150,000 ventilators in the entire US. Masks, if every hospital doctor or nurse needed one, would run out in just days. And if the medical system gets crushed, outcomes are going to get a lot worse.

[RWill2073]

Purist,

I'm not trying to downplay that this is a serious event/virus. And I know that it is dangerous for those over 60-70 or those with underlying conditions. Personally, I keep talking to my family and am not worried so much for my parents, aunts and uncles, who are ranging from 50 to 71. They're all pretty healthy. But some of them do go to work, and that increases risk. But at the same time, I am very worried about my 91 year old grandmom. She lives with my dad one month and aunt the next. She pretty much stays at home most of the time, but when anyone else in my family leaves and comes home, who knows what they bring in. They could feel fine or have a mild cold and it be the coronavirus and not really mess with them. But if that was passed to my grandmom, it's like a death sentence. That is scary, and I understand cancelling a bunch of stuff to try to prevent that.

But the percentages we are seeing, the 3%, or 8% for at risk groups, are grossly overestimated, if you factor in how many cases go unreported because it is thought to be a cold or the flu. And with all the international travel and the highly contagious nature of this virus, I would guess we have had it floating around in the US long before we thought. Anecdotal, but where I live, it was said to be a much harsher flu season. Seems coincidental, no?

I guess my pushback to this is that I don't see it as bad enough shut down the whole economy. Do we cripple the entire economy and wreak havoc on all aspects of everyone's lives, or do we add stress to the healthcare infrastructure? There are lots of military bases that can be repurposed for times like this for healthcare help, imo.

I don't know. I just don't like all the panic and complete overturning of all aspects of our lives for a 3% at most (overall). I guess what set me off today was seeing entire states cancel schools. I cede your point about teachers, but I don't know man. Seems like extreme measures for small percentages. Also, I know I've been my most sickly in years I was highly stressed. All this added panic/stress is just weakening immune systems. And I swear, I have never heard more news people coughing on the mic in my life than I have this past month! Lol, it's almost like it's on purpose to make freak more people out, lol.

[Adam43]

Originally Posted by RWill2073

And with all the international travel and the highly contagious nature of this virus, I would guess we have had it floating around in the US long before we thought. Anecdotal, but where I live, it was said to be a much harsher flu season. Seems coincidental, no?

They are unlikely to be related.

[Purist]

Keep in mind that hospitalization rates would be more like 10% of cases, not just the 1% of fatal cases. With officials being told to expect 150 million total cases in the US, the hospital figure is 15 million then. However, there are only roughly 1 million hospital beds in the country, and about 70% of those are already occupied by other patients at any given time. There's no way to scale up the system that much, let alone do it quickly enough. The mere ~3,000 passengers from that one cruise ship are having to be split up to go to 4 different bases in 3 separate states.

And just to add something to combat the lack of preparedness here, Merkel of Germany, and those people are generally known for being pretty darn practical and pragmatic, said her country should brace for a 70% infection rate of the population, so close to 60 million people.

[Purist]

On another item, I'm sure you're familiar with sympathetic yawning. Well, think of the coughing of the anchors/commentators in the same vein. I mean, when I'm in the car with my father, and he happens to be clearing his nose a lot, my nose will start to run. If he's coughing quite a bit, it will become harder and harder not to clear my own throat. So if the people on the news are getting told about the stuff all the time, they just really can't help it with the constant reminders.

The percentages may be somewhat high, but not necessarily by as much as many think. We do have a fairly comprehensive data set with a large sample size thanks to China. And no, I don't totally trust their government by any means, but I do know that they must know it's in their best interest to give reasonably accurate information at least on this. After all, coming up with effective means of containment, as well as gauging risk, requires good data collection. It's also critical in minimizing the chance that someone will come in and reignite things with new clusters of infection.

[Maelochs]

it's hard to know what is the best approach. Look at Italy, where the economy has been totally disrupted .... but look at how their hospitals have been completely overwhelmed, with people not able to get treatment because there is insufficient staff and equipment.

How much worse would all that be, and how much might the economy be hit, if that situation spread at the pace it was before the lockdown? How many businesses would have closed because owners and staff were waiting to get treatment, and meanwhile spreading the virus everywhere? Ultimately, would the cost be greater to have a much higher infection- and death rate (getting exponentially worse each day because hospitals would have less and less care to offer and more and more people would get infected) or would it cost more to keep everyone home and limit the spread of the disease? That kind of stuff is impossible to calculate.

here is something else: no matter what, a large number of people are going to complain. Some will complain because they cannot watch their soccer match, or are losing money by not working .... but they would complain if they got sick, or their friends did, and if the death toll got high, they would really complain .... even though they would have been the same people saying that the government shouldn't shut things down.

if there is going to be a high financial cost anyway, but there can be a lower cost in lives .... seems like we might as well try that route.

I can guarantee, anyone complaining now, before the disease has really gotten a foothold in the U.S., would be complaining ten times as loud if they got sick, went to the hospital and couldn't get admitted.

Eventually there will be a vaccine, or the virus will die out, or mutate ..... this is a temporary situation. But it is a real thing. it is infecting a lot of people, and what has been happening in Italy shows what can happen if the virus is ignored a couple weeks too long ... and remember, you have the disease for five days before you have symptoms. Everyone reading this might have already infected half their family and friend sin the past two days---or you might have gotten infected by someone who didn't take it seriously, coughed into his hand, and shook your hand without stopping to think.

And how would you feel if you went to the meat market and the guy in the back room sawing up the sides of beef was coughing? probably he just smokes too much .... right?

And sure, kids aren't much affected .... but if half the teachers in a school get sick, I guess they would have to close the school down anyway ... but by that point the kids would have spread the virus all over--to each other, to friends' parents, to the bus drivers, ...... imagine a school bus full of kids all talking and laughing ... and one kid coughing ....

People complain, but I bet if the person behind you at the grocery store tomorrow starts coughing, you get a really creepy feeling ... or get angry that they are putting you at risk.

[RWill2073]

All are valid points from you guys. One more thing I'll point out, especially with schools closing, is that children have to cared for those hours. A lot of parents won't be able to stay home if their job is still open. Who doesn't work that could watch them if all child care and schools are closed?..... Grandparents. The most at risk age group.... Could be a counter productive step.

[Adam43]

I think that is why they are trying to keep schools open in the UK.

But they are closed round here. We’re lucky as Mrs 43 can do the child care. At my work, if we can, we are all working from home.

But we had to make a difficult decision. My parents were flying over (Dad for Sebring), should they come? We went with no in the end, but it was a late call last night. Can never be sure if it was a good one. It was non essential and they can come over easily in the next few months (and again for November Sebring!), so we are lucky from that point of view.

[broadrun96]

Originally Posted by Adam43

I think that is why they are trying to keep schools open in the UK.

But they are closed round here. We’re lucky as Mrs 43 can do the child care. At my work, if we can, we are all working from home.

But we had to make a difficult decision. My parents were flying over (Dad for Sebring), should they come? We went with no in the end, but it was a late call last night. Can never be sure if it was a good one. It was non essential and they can come over easily in the next few months (and again for November Sebring!), so we are lucky from that point of view.

Yeah, schools are closing slowly in Atlanta too and they are scrambling for laptops/chromebooks for remote learning. And lunch programs with bagged lunches scattered through town.

The conventional thought from most of the the coworkers and neighbors has been no to grandparents. It seems like some of the neighbors are trying to find groups for the kids to take some pressure off the parents but whether that's good or not is to be seen.

[Akrapovic]

We did a Working Form Home dress rehearsal today. We're preparing for a full office shutdown, and schools closing, allowing us to parent at home.

But not all workplaces can do that unfortunately.

[Maelochs]

Originally Posted by Akrapovic

We did a Working Form Home dress rehearsal today. We're preparing for a full office shutdown, and schools closing, allowing us to parent at home.

But not all workplaces can do that unfortunately.

is a "dress rehearsal" for working from home mean coming to work in pajamas or underwear?

[Akrapovic]

Well we did a company wide video call for fun at 10, and a few people did say they were business up top and party down below.

[fieldodreams79]

Originally Posted by Akrapovic

We did a Working Form Home dress rehearsal today. We're preparing for a full office shutdown, and schools closing, allowing us to parent at home.

But not all workplaces can do that unfortunately.

I'm a lucky one. We just recently closed our brick & mortar office from downsizing but the wife is a preschool teacher. Like her, others aren't so lucky.