Performance Gap

power&glory · 9 Mar 2004, 01:56 (Ref:898891)

Of course, I was very dissapointed to see Ferrari dominate like they did, pulling away at the start and never looking back...but everybody in the world seems to think now that because Schumacher won so big, it's going to be repeat of the 2002 domination. I disagree.

Last year, Michael and Rubens pulled away at the start and built up a huge early gap. But that was a wild race, with the moisture on the track, Rubens crashing, the safety car coming out twice, Michael breaking the bargeboards...I honestly think that without those wild variables that got thrown in there, the 2003 Australian GP would have been almost exactly like what we saw this weekend.

So what I'm saying is that the performance gap between Ferrari and their rivals is just as big at the start of the 2004 season as it was in 2003, and don't forget that by season's end last year that gap had been closed almost completely. So I think this year will be quite similar - the competition is going to get significantly closer as the year goes on.

Also, among the top teams, Ferrari's car is the most similar from last year to this year, so of course it's probably going to be the quickest straight out of the box, right? Ferrari will reach the maximum of that car very soon, or perhaps have already, while Williams, Renault, BAR and McLaren will constantly be improving...so reasons for fans of teams other than Ferrari to have hope and positive feelings

Wrex · 9 Mar 2004, 02:03 (Ref:898895)

Quote:

Originally posted by power&glory
So what I'm saying is that the performance gap between Ferrari and their rivals is just as big at the start of the 2004 season as it was in 2003, and don't forget that by season's end last year that gap had been closed almost completely.

Which is almost a word for word quote from Michael himself

power&glory · 9 Mar 2004, 02:09 (Ref:898897)

Really? I seriously haven't even gone on F1-Live yet- all i did was watch the race for the first time (on replay) on SPEED last night, and then the first F1 related thing i did online was posting this thread tonight. That's all coming from thinking about it in my head. Not paraphrasing anyone. Seriously.

Wrex · 9 Mar 2004, 02:17 (Ref:898903)

I believe you mate, and agree with both Michael and yourself

Armco Bender · 9 Mar 2004, 08:16 (Ref:899094)

Performance Gap,its not really a gap,its more like the Grand Canyon.

climb · 9 Mar 2004, 13:20 (Ref:899399)

Wish the Lord that you may be right, power&glory. for now, however, the situation of Ferrari sorta reminds me of your nickname, dunno why..

jhansen · 9 Mar 2004, 15:40 (Ref:899556)

The real performance gap is for Jordan and Minardi. Talk about Grand Canyon of a gap. During one of the sessions, either quals or practice, the tail end of the majority of the field was roughly 2.5 seconds down on Ferrari, then Jordan were another 2 back from that, and Minardi another 2 back from Jordan. An article today had Stoddart saying his team were about 6 seconds off the pace. Now that's what I'd call a performance gap.

steve_r · 9 Mar 2004, 16:46 (Ref:899615)

Maybe P&G is Michael...

P&G, please slow down in Malaysia. Let Rubens have a go at the front, its only fair.

**Adam43** · 9 Mar 2004, 17:00 (Ref:899625)

In some ways that is what you'd expect. Even from a purely statistical point of view. The lap times are likely to take a gaussian appearance, with a clump in the middle and a tail at the front and rear. Look at the graph below, it is the finishing time of every runner in a half marathon. Notice at the front there are only a couple of points and then it curves back in to the main field. Notice there is also a tail at the other end too. This is the normal distribution expected for a race, it isn't always easy to spot in F1 because there are only 20 entries. In that half marathon there were no technical rules whatsoever, the entrant just had to be human.

The way this gets distorted in F1 is that hopefully you have some sort of limit at the front of the grid (which is diminishing performance returns and physical limits in F1). At the other end it gets distorted by the lack of resources of the small teams.

I actually think we are quite lucky when you get more than one team close at the front of the grid. One team produces something special it is actually unlikely that another can be as special!

(BTW, I am getting my coat

)
.

shiny side up! · 9 Mar 2004, 17:17 (Ref:899641)

I think that is some insightful (if not nerd-ish

) analysis there, AA...

**Adam43** · 9 Mar 2004, 17:19 (Ref:899647)

The sheer numbers invloved in that half marathon (hundreds) make the natural distribution easier to see. In the one below, based on Q times from the Australian GP, it isn't as clear because the sample is small. Still the tailend tail can be seen and there is the hint of the midfield with the front runners pulling away too.

(just came back for my hat and scalf)
.

**Adam43** · 9 Mar 2004, 17:21 (Ref:899649)

Quote:

Originally posted by shiny side up!
I think that is some insightful (if not nerd-ish ) analysis there, AA...

I suppose it is a longwinded way of say, this situation is not really that unexpected.

Tiptop · 9 Mar 2004, 17:26 (Ref:899659)

strange that the serrari or fauber (sauber) is nowhere near as quick as last years ferrari ? surely this years ferrari has been developed as much as the williams/mclarens/renaults although it looks much the same as last year ?

**Adam43** · 9 Mar 2004, 17:31 (Ref:899671)

I think that just goes to show you need to do more than just copy a good car to gain success in F1. Sauber could well be worse of, at first, as the car is full of Ferrari's ideas not theirs. Maybe they haven't got to grips with that kind of design yet?

Also, I guess, there are still several differences between this years Sauber and last years Ferrari.

power&glory · 9 Mar 2004, 21:38 (Ref:899994)

I think that the bottom line is that Ferrari will reach the limits of their car very soon, and the other teams will catch up very soon. Except McLaren. I don't know what's going on with them. I predict at this mmoment that we will have an exciting, closely-fought, dramatic championship in 2004, and Michael Schumacher will not be World Driving Champion for the 7th time. He might win 5 of the first 7 races, but he won't be WDC.

By the way, I'm not Michael Schumacher, in fact I really don't like him all that much, and I really don't like Ferrari at all.

Also, my nickname refers not to any sort of dominant team, but rather to my favorite TV show of all time: "The Power and the Glory" was a one week miniseries, a BBC International production on A&E (Arts&Entertainment) here in the U.S. in the summer of 1992. It was a really cool show about the history of motor racing, from Indianapolis to Monte Carlo to Le Mans. Fangio, Moss, Andretti, Prost, Mansell...all these great drivers were on it. They even showed old interviews with Colin Chapman in the episode called "The Revolutionaries" about the birth of rear-engined cars. Great show!