F1 2019: Some stats regarding the title chase - Page 2

wolfhound · 14 Jun 2019, 10:15 (Ref:3910041)

On the constructors front by my calculations Mercedes could have the championship by Singapore or Russia if the two top teams keep up their current scoring averages.

Schummy · 25 Jun 2019, 08:28 (Ref:3914065)

Sorry for not replying earlier :-)

Yes, in terms of absolute impossibility, at current rate (updated after France), Mercs would get the title in Japan or Mexico, as you said.

(BTW, in general terms, the numbers of GPs to get the title with absolute certainty would be: n = GPTG/(1+Gap/(44*GPs)), where GPTG is races to go, Gap is current points gap and GPs is number of races already done)

But in terms of very high probability (>99%, almost certainty) the future is much bleaker: Red Bull is already out of the title and Ferrari can be out in the very next race.

Something very, very fundamental has to change for Ferrari can remount the 140 deficit it currently has. Probably it doesn't have any precedent in F1 past, but I have not looked into it. (In Drivers's Championship we have the case of Raikkonen's title...).

Schummy · 25 Jun 2019, 08:44 (Ref:3914066)

New gaps after GP France:

Code:

     Gap   ORG  +10  +25
HAM  187
BOT  -36   9.98  -1  ---
VET  -76  21.1  ---  -15
VER  -87  24.1  ---   -4
LEC -100  27.7  ---  +10

Code:

     Gap   ORG  +44
mer  338        
fer -140  38.8  -16
rbr -201  55.7  ---

Now even Bottas is in a difficult position (approx 10%) to overcome the gap. Leclerc is out and Vettel and Verstappen are almost out of the title (<1% is out of the title for me, it is a ORG of 25 or more).

If Verstappen doesn't get more points than Hamilton in the next race he will be "officially" out (ORG > 25). Same with Vettel if he loses 11 points. Respecting Leclerc, he has to recover 14 points to Lewis to come back to life (altough very probably to no avail).

In the teams' table, only Ferrari has a chance to fight Mercedes, and this chance is small. If Ferrari loses the next race, it probably will be out too. I remind you that, in this discussion, a <1% chance is not a realistic chance to get the title.

Schummy · 4 Jul 2019, 14:23 (Ref:3915858)

Gaps after Austria:

Code:

Drivers
     Gap   ORG  +10  +25
HAM  197
BOT  -31   8.9   -3  --- Contender
VER  -71  20.5  ---  -12 Almost out
VET  -74  21.4  ---   -9 Almost out
LEC  -92  26.6  ---  +10 Out

Code:

Teams
     Gap   ORG  +43
mer  363        
fer -135  38.97   -8 Almost out
rbr -194  56.0   --- Out

Ironically, Vettel and Leclerc are in a slightly worse position than before even if they got more points than Hamilton. It is due to now there is one less race to go and then the significance of a given gap is bigger.

Botas is in the limit as contender, if he loses 3 points to Lewis in the next race, he will pass to be "Struggling", i.e. less than 10% chance to overcome the gap with Hamilton.

Leclerc would need gain 10 points to Hamilton (always in the next race) to get into a minimal likelyhood of getting the title. Meanwhile, Verstappen and Vettel will be out of title chase (with at least 1% of chance) if they lose 12 and 9 points, respectively, with LH.

About teams championship, Ferrari has slightly worsened its chances (due to the same reason as formerly mentioned) and it is nearing the limit for being out of the championship. If they lose 8 points to mercs, they will "achieve" that. Of course RedBull is already out.

In short, things are not exactly exciting respecting titles this season.

alc59 · 6 Jul 2019, 19:19 (Ref:3916187)

Well done Schummy on an intriguing analysis. It's a bit of an ask, but how does the technique look when applied tp a previous season or two?

Schummy · 2 Aug 2019, 06:41 (Ref:3920766)

alc59: sorry for not replying before (-_-)'

I have used this procedure since years ago, in F1 and in MotoGP, to get an idea about how the championship was going in realistic terms. The method has worked nicely.

Retrospectively, I applied it to older WDCs too; the most striking case is Raikkonen's title in the (in)famous McLaren self-debacle (Alonso-Hamilton). Kimi was in the edge of being statistically "discarded" and yet got the title in an extraordinary set of circumstances. Actually, it is not a rare event considering the whole picture of F1 history. There have been 69 seasons, so is probabilistically reasonable that a "rare" championship happens.

(Gore details:
More concretely, Raikkonen was at the 1% chance point and however he got the title. What is the probability of not getting any 1% event-championship in 69 seasons? Applying a binomial distribution that probability is 50%! Thus, is very reasonable to have such an exceptional event as Kimi's title.)

Schummy · 2 Aug 2019, 06:57 (Ref:3920767)

Update of ORGs after Germany.

Code:

     Gap   ORG   +10  +25
HAM  225
BOT  -41  12.97  +11  ---  Difficult
VER  -63  19.92  ---  -12  Difficult
VET  -84  26.6   ---   +9  Out
LEC -105  33.2   ---  ---  Out

     Gap   ORG  +43
mer  409        
fer -148  46.8  +19  Out
rbr -192  60.7  ---  Out

Bottas is in a difficult position (<10% chance). Verstappen is still in the title's hunt but in an even more difficult situation than Valteri. The two Ferraris are out (<1% chance).

In terms of short time evolution, Bottas can get out of his difficult position if gains 11 points above LH in the next race. Verstappen will be out of the championship if he loses 12 points to Hamilton in Hungary. Vettel could go back to the title race if gets 9 points above Lewis in this next race.

Respecting teams, Ferrari and Red Bull are out of the championship but Ferrari can recover to a (very difficult) title option if they win 19 points over Mercedes in this GP.

Schummy · 7 Aug 2019, 03:10 (Ref:3921759)

Hungary has been "tragic" for Bottas: from a pretty difficult position to an almost out of contention position. Basically, he is out, from a probabilistic point of view (perhaps around 2% of chance).

Code:

     Gap   ORG   +10  +25
HAM  250
BOT  -62  20.7   ---  ---
VER  -69  23.00  ---   -2
VET  -94  31.3   ---  +24
LEC -118  39.3   ---  ---

     Gap   ORG  +43
mer  438        
fer -150  50.0  +29
rbr -194  64.7  ---

Bottas and Verstappen still minimally resist on the title hunt but both Ferraris are utterly busted...

For the next race:
If Verstappen loses 2 points against Lewis he will be out as well. If VET wins and HAM has a disaster, Seb will go back to title contention (but an extremely unlikely contention anyway).

In teams champ, the only thing worthy to say is if Ferrari amass 29 points over Toto's team in Spa, they will have the privilege of to have an extremely marginal chance for the title (about 1% perhaps).

In practical terms, both titles are decided but both 2nd positions are still well in fight.

Schummy · 22 Aug 2019, 15:38 (Ref:3923758)

With the ORGs (One Race Gaps) previously calculated we could estimate the probabilities of any driver beating any other driver at the end of the season. The following table shows those probabilities for each pair of drivers (one versus another). The last column is an estimation of the final probabilities to get the title.

Code:

     HAM  BOT  VER  VET  LEC
HAM   --   99  100  100  100  = 98%
BOT    1   --   69   93  100  =  2%
VER    0   31   --  100  100  =  1% 
VET    0    7    0   --   92  =  0%
LEC    0    0    0    8   --  =  0%

For example, Bottas has 93% of probabilities of getting ahead of Vettel in the championship.

The first 5 positions in the championship are pretty much decided, except 2nd-3rd that are still to be decided between Bottas and Verstappen (69% against 31%).

Vettel is out of the final podium already, except, curiously, he has some chances of overcome Bottas (7%), but doesn't have chances against Verstappen(!). Leclerc is pretty much buried in 5th place... but, however, has a small 8% chance of jump ahead Vettel for the 4th final position.

Frankly, a bit sad for Ferrari to be "fighting" for 4th-5th, positions. At the end of the day, however, perhaps they were lucky that Red Bull chose Gassly for the weberish second Red Bull...

Schummy · 12 Sep 2019, 15:14 (Ref:3927568)

Update after Italy, with only 7 races to go.

GAP ANALYSIS

For title:
-----Gap ORG
HAM 284
BOT -63 23.8
VER -99 37.4
LEC -102 38.6
VET -115 43.5

For 2nd:
--- Gap ORG
BOT
VER -36 13.6 (~6%)
LEC -39 14.7 (~5%)
VET -52 19.7 (<1%)

For 3rd:
--- Gap ORG
VER
LEC -3 1.1 (~50%)
VET -16 6.1 (~18%)

I have extended a bit the analysis to add the fight for 2nd and 3rd positions... mostly because the title hunt is not very exciting, due to the prevalence of Hamilton (and Mercedes).

For title there is just the slightest hope for Bottas.

For runner up, Bottas is favorite, of course but Verstappen and Leclerc has a (difficult) chances, that I evaluate aprox about 5-6%. Vettel has also a chance but, according to past results, is a lot harder.

For third, there is an expected hard fight between the no-mercs drivers. Verstappen and Leclerc are virtually tied and Vettel still has a sizeable chance (if his brain finally engages...

).

Schummy · 18 Oct 2019, 10:03 (Ref:3935377)

Update after Japan, only 4 races to go.

GAP ANALYSIS

For title:
-----Gap ORG
HAM 338
BOT -64 32.0
LEC -117
VER -126
VET -126

For 2nd:
--- Gap ORG
BOT
LEC -53 26.5
VER -62 31.0
VET -62 31.0

For 3rd:
--- Gap ORG
LEC
VER -9 4.5
VET -9 4.5

The two most important things are: Hamilton's title is practically decided and Bottas 2nd position is also virtually decided. The only thing to be settled, realistically speaking, is 3rd position, with a very open fight between LEC, VER and VET.

In teams' championship, I confess I was a bit amused by the importance that Sky commentators were giving to one point more or one point less respect the Mercedes's title. The probabilistic unlikelihood of Merc not getting the title is huge in any case, a few points more or less. It is like feeling safe going to buy the newspaper with a helmet on to avoid being killed by a small meteorite. Yes, it is "possible" to get hit by a meteorite but...

Even 2nd position is realistically settled in favor of Ferrari, it has and ORG of 55.0 against Red Bull. And third is clearly for Red Bull... The only realistic discussion is for 4th position (!). Mac is a big favorite (Renault seems to have a slim 2% chance if things go on as in the past). Renault, in turn, is favorite for 5th positions, with Toro Rosso having a 9% chance against it. Chances for Racing Point seem to be a lot lower.

**Adam43** · 18 Oct 2019, 23:39 (Ref:3935532)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schummy

In teams' championship, I confess I was a bit amused by the importance that Sky commentators were giving to one point more or one point less respect the Mercedes's title. The probabilistic unlikelihood of Merc not getting the title is huge in any case, a few points more or less. It is like feeling safe going to buy the newspaper with a helmet on to avoid being killed by a small meteorite. Yes, it is "possible" to get hit by a meteorite but...

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