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Old 4 Jul 2019, 14:38 (Ref:3915861)   #16
Schummy
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(I have to say I am a sort of fan of Charles Leclerc... but the "d@amn" data get me down! )


Team mates comparison after miniZeltweg, aka Red Bull Ring:
Code:
        AU BA CH AZ SP MO CA FR AU   TOT  QUA  RAC
HAM-BOT 10 11 01 00 01 11 11 11 00 = 11-7  5-4  6-3  HAM 52%   Advantage
VET-LEC 11 00 11 11 11 11 11 00 00 = 12-6  6-3  6-3  VET 76%   Advantage
MAG-GRO 01 11 11 11 01 10 10 11 10 = 13-5  7-2  6-3  MAG 90%   Nearly busted
RIC-HUL 00 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 01 = 12-6  7-2  5-4  RIC 76%   Advantage
Austria has been a bit like The Revenge of the Minnows ;-) . Bottras and Leclerc have beaten their "seniors" and Grosjean and Hulk have braked the fall. Now only Grasjean is Almost Busted (and not for much).

In particular, HAM-BOT is looking pretty much random-ish, in numerical terms. I mean if if throw a coin 18 times, it is relatively easy to get 11 times one or other side of the coin. Thus, the results of them could have been generated by two identical drivers.
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Old 2 Aug 2019, 06:18 (Ref:3920765)   #17
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Updating after GP Germany:
Code:
        AU BA CH AZ SP MO CA FR AU GB GE    TOT  QUA  RAC
HAM-BOT 10 11 01 00 01 11 11 11 00 01 11 = 14-8  6-5  8-3  HAM 71%   Advantage
VET-LEC 11 00 11 11 11 11 11 00 00 00 01 = 13-9  6-5  7-4  VET 48%   Equality
MAG-GRO 01 11 11 11 01 10 10 11 10 00 00 = 13-9  7-4  6-5  MAG 48%   Equality
RIC-HUL 00 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 01 11 00 = 14-8  8-3  6-5  RIC 71%   Advantage
In the last two races has had some significant developments.

1) Gorsjean has beaten Magnussen 4-0, bringing the situation to "equality", i.e. the drivers are probably similar in performance, with differences mainly due to randomness. Still, Magnussen has the edge, so he can change the situation to his side more easily.
2) Leclerc won 3-1 against Vettel (and it is now 7-1 in the last four GPs!!). Now the position is "equality" as well... when Seb had Leclerc "busted" formerly!
3) Hamilton won 3-1 versus Botas making it "advantage" now. it means data shows Lewis is doing better than Valteri but it is not still enough to be statistically proven.
4) Hulk has slowed down the fall against Ricciardo tying 2-2 in the last two races. Anyway, the Australian still has "advantage" on his side.
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Old 3 Aug 2019, 01:12 (Ref:3920894)   #18
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Thanks Schumi.

Interesting to see how Leclerc has clawed his way back from oblivion.

Small query, how can Vettel and Magnussen have the same percentage in the table?
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Old 3 Aug 2019, 07:28 (Ref:3920922)   #19
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E.B should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridE.B should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridE.B should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridE.B should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
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Thanks Schumi.


Small query, how can Vettel and Magnussen have the same percentage in the table?
I read it as both KMag and Vettel lead their teamates overall by 13-9 (despite their qualy/race mix results being different).
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Old 3 Aug 2019, 09:25 (Ref:3920932)   #20
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Yeah, as E.B. says, Vettel and Magnussen score the same percentage against their team mates in slightly different ways. MAG is a bit more dominant in qualy and VET is a bit more dominant in race positions, but the differences are probably just randomness by now.

Another difference is the timing evolution. VET clearly dominated in the first part of the championship and LEC is hitting back in recent races; however, in Haas, they are a bit more mixed, with just a short strike by MAG first and now a short strike by GRO.

Vettel is way ahead of Magnussen in the championship but both of them have a similar domination (or lack of) against their team mates.
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Old 7 Aug 2019, 02:57 (Ref:3921756)   #21
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Update after Hungary:
Code:
        AU BA CH AZ SP MO CA FR AU GB GE HU    TOT   QUA  RAC
HAM-BOT 10 11 01 00 01 11 11 11 00 01 11 01 = 15- 9  6-6  9-3  HAM 69%   Advantage
VET-LEC 11 00 11 11 11 11 11 00 00 00 01 01 = 14-10  6-6  8-4  VET 46%   Equality
MAG-GRO 01 11 11 11 01 10 10 11 10 00 00 01 = 14-10  7-5  7-5  MAG 46%   Equality
RIC-HUL 00 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 01 11 00 00 = 14-10  8-4  6-6  RIC 46%   Equality
In resume, in Budapest things have gone toward a more balanced situation in the teams. Now the score is almost exactly the same in all four teams (BTW, perhaps I will add another team in the comparison sooner than later...). Everybody is in a mild position between equality and a slight advantage of its prime driver.
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Old 12 Sep 2019, 13:33 (Ref:3927551)   #22
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Updating after Italy.

Code:

        AU BA CH AZ SP MO CA FR AU GB GE HU BE IT    TOT   QUA  RAC
HAM-BOT 10 11 01 00 01 11 11 11 00 01 11 01 11 10 = 18-10  8-6 10-4  HAM 82%   Advantage
VET-LEC 11 00 11 11 11 11 11 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 = 14-14  6-8  8-6  ---  0%   Equality
MAG-GRO 01 11 11 11 01 10 10 11 10 00 00 01 11 10 = 17-11  9-5  8-6  MAG 66%   Advantage
RIC-HUL 00 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 01 11 00 00 10 11 = 17-11 10-4  7-7  RIC 66%   Advantage
The "big" news is Leclerc has finally tied Vettel after two doble-wins GPs.
Hamilton has improved against Bottas but has not still busted Valteri.
Magnussen and Ricciardo also improved against their team mates and now are in am "Advantage" status, instead "Equality".
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Old 12 Sep 2019, 14:51 (Ref:3927561)   #23
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steve_r should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridsteve_r should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridsteve_r should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
The reversal of fortunes between Vettel / LeClerc pre and post France is quite amazing.
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Old 13 Sep 2019, 13:49 (Ref:3927712)   #24
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Remarkable indeed.

In the other thread, about Vettel-Leclerc (or should we say Leclerc-Vettel?) lap times comparison, I am going to update data and it shows that Leclerc begins to surpass his team mate.

I see how Vettel's future development is being a big issue in media and forums to make endless (and potentially fun) discussions.
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Old 18 Oct 2019, 08:49 (Ref:3935358)   #25
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Team mates comparison after ... a long time in a distant galaxy...
Code:

        AU BA CH AZ SP MO CA FR AU GB GE HU BE IT SI RU JA    TOT   QUA   RAC
HAM-BOT 10 11 01 00 01 11 11 11 00 01 11 01 11 10 11 11 00 = 22-12 10-7  12-5  HAM 88%   Advantage
VET-LEC 11 00 11 11 11 11 11 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 01 00 11 = 17-17  7-10 10-7  ---  0%   Equality
MAG-GRO 01 11 11 11 01 10 10 11 10 00 00 01 11 10 10 01 00 = 19-15 10-7   9-8  MAG 39%   Equality
RIC-HUL 00 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 01 11 00 00 10 11 10 00 01 = 19-15 11-6   8-9  RIC 39%   Equality
Bottas was "almost busted" after Russia but he found a bit of a new life in Suzuka, so he is now "only" 88% of being busted.

In Russia, Leclerc finally overtook Vettel... but in Japan Seb struck back (with lady luck often playing a role between those two) restorinf the tie. Anyway they are now essentially equal in the whole of the season.

Magny(!?) and Ricciardo have a positive score against their team mates but it is not significant by a big margin: even if they win 2-0 all the resting GPs, they will not bust their team mates. The maximum score they can achieve is 91% of certainty of being better than them, just short of being significant in normal statistical practice.
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