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1 Apr 2010, 15:37 (Ref:2664891) | #1 | ||
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Team mates comparison 2010
Again here comes the thread about team mates in terms of three aspects: qualifying, fast race lap and race classification.
At the moment, just the main four teams are considered for they are interesting pairs and of course they are the front runners. The rest will be (perhaps) included in the future. The code is as follows. In each race, three digits are shown, for qualifying, fast lap and classification; 1 means the first driver "won", 0 means the second driver "won". "Theoretically", the first driver is chosen to be the a priori fastest driver in the team (of course this can produce a series of debates in certain teams ). Code:
After 2nd Round (Australia): BAH AUS VET-WEB 101 100 = 3-3 ALO-MAS 011 100 = 3-3 HAM-BUT 111 010 = 4-2 SCH-ROS 010 000 = 1-5 As can be seen, the only dramatic score is 1-5 against my namesake (he copied my nick). Probably it will be the most interesting pair to follow in the next races. Obviously the other pairs are interesting all of them. The wonderboy Vettel against the beloved Webber (I'm not sure about the level of irony in my own phrase). The proud (and not very sympathetic) Alonso against the resilient Massa. The brilliant (perhaps overly) Hamilton versus the calm Button (incidentally, the World Champion). To be creative, I have to say: let's-see-how-everything-develops. |
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2 Apr 2010, 02:19 (Ref:2665207) | #2 | ||
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Schummy you are back!
The numbers confuse me so I don't know how to respond, but I thought I should because you know what you are talking about.. |
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2 Apr 2010, 03:00 (Ref:2665211) | #3 | ||
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Thanks
The confusing thing is my fault. I'll try to explain it (more or less) properly. For example, VET-WEB is 101 in BAH. It means Vettel beat Webber in qualifying and in race result in Bahrain, but was beaten by Webber in fastest race lap. They are 100 in AUS, so in Australia Webber was better in fastest lap and in race result but was worse than Vettel in qualifying. In short, Vettel defeated Webber in 3 things and was defeated in 3 other things. In each race the first number is qualifying, the second is fastest lap and the third means race result. |
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2 Apr 2010, 21:03 (Ref:2665593) | #4 | ||
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Confusing as hell - Just the way we like it
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That's so frickin uncool man! |
3 Apr 2010, 01:39 (Ref:2665671) | #5 | ||
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I love this poster..Brilliant stuff...
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3 Apr 2010, 02:42 (Ref:2665691) | #6 | ||
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thanks a heap Schummy, it's nice to have your stats back again.
Especially on a forum where intangibles are endlessly discussed / argued / pleaded with little prospect of resolution! |
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3 Apr 2010, 04:16 (Ref:2665704) | #7 | |
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lol
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3 Apr 2010, 15:56 (Ref:2665998) | #8 | ||
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Eventually we learn |
3 Apr 2010, 17:26 (Ref:2666029) | #9 | ||
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Schummy great job.. Its pretty clear cut.. Same way you did it the last few years?
Thanks |
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3 Apr 2010, 18:07 (Ref:2666041) | #10 | ||
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Yes, approx the same as former seasons. The "sad" thing about it is that, somewhere in the middle of the season, I don't find the time to do it beyond the first rounds.
Maybe it is just because I'm lazy but probably it's related to the time I have to use in the unwieldy game I host in biker's forum (warning: advertisement), full of piracy, mafia and corruption . By comparison with bikers, Mosley and Briatore look like Mother Theresa and Francis of Assisi (respectively?). |
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3 Apr 2010, 18:33 (Ref:2666052) | #11 | ||
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The trouble i have with these stats though ...................
If we take my favourite driver, Vettel as an example. Todays qualifying result actually mean's the Mark is having a better season, but imo, it's anything but due to problems beyond Seb's control. That said, i enjoy the threads, even if i don't always understand them |
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That's so frickin uncool man! |
3 Apr 2010, 19:19 (Ref:2666089) | #12 | ||
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Each simple datum is subjected to random circumstances, only the accumulation of many of them can possibly throw a reasonable idea about the situation.
So, 4-3 for Webber is not significant, probably is more random than facts (the same if it was 4-3 for Vettel). If we, eventually, reach a 20-19 score for Webber, it would point that probably those two are having a pretty equal season. Rosberg is now "owning" 6-1 to MSC, that's becoming to look a bit significant, not just random. That's the reason I'll try to include (in the future) the "level of statistical significance" in each team mates score. So one could see what level of "factness"(!!) a particular score shows, or, inversely, what could be just random circumstances . 6-1 would give a higher level of confidence in "Rosberg is doing better than MSC" than 4-3 in "Webber is doing better than Vettel". The beauty of measuring raw facts (or numbers) is they can be subjected to random events but they are not to subjective opinions. The "bad" side is we have to wait to accumulate enough evidence to make "factual claims". With these stats we cannot decide who has more "artistry" as a driver, but we could reasonable assert who is "performing" better, beyond good or bad luck. I find fun and interesting to make theories about what driver is better or worse in just the first races, I do it every time, but these statistics have a different goal: searching a long term "truth" (note the semi-ironic quotes ). |
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5 Apr 2010, 03:14 (Ref:2666893) | #13 | ||
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Updating after Sepang.
Code:
TEAM BAH AUS MAL TOT Lead Conf. ===================================== VET-WEB 101 100 001 = 4-5 (WEB) 0% ALO-MAS 011 100 110 = 5-4 (ALO) 0% HAM-BUT 111 010 011 = 6-3 (HAM) 49% SCH-ROS 010 000 000 = 1-8 ROS 96.1% <--Warning! SUT-LIU 110 100 110 = 5-4 (SUT) 0% BAR-HUL 111 111 111 = 9-0 BAR 99.6% <--Proven! BUE-ALG 100 100 100 = 3-6 (ALG) 49% ===================================== Barry has already demolished the incorrigible Hulk. Ralf's brother is in danger of being demolished as well! He need to produce more in terms of qualifying or fast race laps. Hamilton and Alguersuari are beginning to build a lead, but there is not enough facts still to conclude anything. In Red Bull, Ferrari and Force India there is basically equality. |
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5 Apr 2010, 10:42 (Ref:2667024) | #14 | ||
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The Hulk out-qualified Rubens at Sepang, did he not?
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Belgian GP commentary: "Friday morning was nice and sunny - but not for Erik Comas, who crashed heavily." |
5 Apr 2010, 11:12 (Ref:2667039) | #15 | ||
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I created a spreadsheet last year in an attempt to analyse driver consistency, and this included allocating points for each driver in every session - practice x3, qualifying, race. 20 points for 1st, 1 for last, with no points awarded for DNF/DNS, unless the driver was included in the final race classification. I wanted to see who would come out on top if all sessions were taken into account. Sadly it was still Button, who I have to admit I've never been a fan of.....
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Give me the wisdom to know what is right, the courage to change what is wrong, and the bank balance to support me when I can't tell the difference |
5 Apr 2010, 12:46 (Ref:2667075) | #16 | ||
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5 Apr 2010, 12:58 (Ref:2667078) | #17 | ||
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Fixing the true result for Barry and Hulk in Malaysia's qualifying.
Code:
TEAM BAH AUS MAL TOT Lead Conf. ===================================== VET-WEB 101 100 001 = 4-5 (WEB) 0% ALO-MAS 011 100 110 = 5-4 (ALO) 0% HAM-BUT 111 010 011 = 6-3 (HAM) 49% SCH-ROS 010 000 000 = 1-8 ROS 96.1% <--Warning! SUT-LIU 110 100 110 = 5-4 (SUT) 0% BAR-HUL 111 111 011 = 8-1 BAR 96.1% <--Warning! BUE-ALG 100 100 100 = 3-6 (ALG) 49% ===================================== Curiously, the grand total for 1st drivers and 2nd drivers is only 32-31, a virtual equality. Main accountables for this subversion are Rosberg and Alguersuari (or perhaps Schumacher and Buemi, of course). |
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5 Apr 2010, 16:05 (Ref:2667164) | #18 | ||
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5 Apr 2010, 19:43 (Ref:2667274) | #19 | |
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I prefer using the BPR to statistically monitor driver performances:
http://bprf1.com/2010/04/05/bpr-upda...an-grand-prix/ Joking aside, through three races I think the only cases of 'out-performance' between teammates are at Mercedes, Renault, and Williams. That being said, it's still way too early to draw any meaningful conclusions... This will make for an interesting topic over the course of the year due to the driver pairings! Last edited by tblincoe; 5 Apr 2010 at 19:49. |
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5 Apr 2010, 21:37 (Ref:2667348) | #20 | |||
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Quote:
I'll update the table now. Thanks a lot! |
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5 Apr 2010, 21:43 (Ref:2667352) | #21 | ||
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Re-fixing the true result for Barry and Hulk in Malaysia. Poor Hulk is finally vindicated (or so I think).
Code:
TEAM BAH AUS MAL TOT Lead Conf. ===================================== VET-WEB 101 100 001 = 4-5 (WEB) 0% ALO-MAS 011 100 110 = 5-4 (ALO) 0% HAM-BUT 111 010 011 = 6-3 (HAM) 49% SCH-ROS 010 000 000 = 1-8 ROS 96.1% <--Warning! SUT-LIU 110 100 110 = 5-4 (SUT) 0% BAR-HUL 111 111 000 = 6-3 BAR 49% BUE-ALG 100 100 100 = 3-6 (ALG) 49% ===================================== The grand total for 1st drivers and 2nd drivers is now 30-33, a "win" for "secundary" drivers. But I will hold any further interpretation until the next fix. |
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5 Apr 2010, 22:05 (Ref:2667361) | #22 | |||
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Quote:
Some basic differences are it is a "continuous" system, this is a "discrete" one. Also, BPR uses a sort of trend effect (perhaps with a moving average) in its Power Rating, mine is more as its "Average Rating" (but BPR filters out the "bad" (unreliable?) GPs of each driver, this system don't do it). For forecasting purposes I use another "system" , but it is another topic. The accent of this stat is focused on face-to-face team mates struggle. The good thing is the more numbers we have, the more fun (and headache) we get. |
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6 Apr 2010, 08:20 (Ref:2667478) | #23 | ||
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Just one more question, where does Liuzzis point in Malaysia come from? Can't see that. He qualified behind Sutil and his car broke at an early stage of the race.
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7 Apr 2010, 01:27 (Ref:2668020) | #24 |
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Schummy, how do you come up with the confidence rating?
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7 Apr 2010, 14:32 (Ref:2668289) | #25 | ||
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Due to the last fixes, I have done a check of the last round (Malaysia) and I've found that there were many errors (for Sepang) in the three teams I added (Toro Rosso, Force India, Williams), most of them already fixed, but, as Hendrik said, there was an error with Sutil-Liuzzi in race and I got another error with Buemi-Alguersuari in fast laps. Apparently the procedure used was buggy, so I checked by hand (or eye, rather).
So I have reached at this "fixed" table. We can call it the Table Service Pack 2. Code:
TEAM BAH AUS MAL TOT Lead Conf. ===================================== VET-WEB 101 100 001 = 4-5 (WEB) 0% ALO-MAS 011 100 110 = 5-4 (ALO) 0% HAM-BUT 111 010 011 = 6-3 (HAM) 49% SCH-ROS 010 000 000 = 1-8 ROS 96.1% <--Warning! SUT-LIU 110 100 111 = 6-3 (SUT) 49% BAR-HUL 111 111 000 = 6-3 BAR 49% BUE-ALG 100 100 110 = 4-5 (ALG) 0% ===================================== |
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