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Old 13 Mar 2020, 03:02 (Ref:3963737)   #466
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Keep in mind that hospitalization rates would be more like 10% of cases, not just the 1% of fatal cases. With officials being told to expect 150 million total cases in the US, the hospital figure is 15 million then. However, there are only roughly 1 million hospital beds in the country, and about 70% of those are already occupied by other patients at any given time. There's no way to scale up the system that much, let alone do it quickly enough. The mere ~3,000 passengers from that one cruise ship are having to be split up to go to 4 different bases in 3 separate states.

And just to add something to combat the lack of preparedness here, Merkel of Germany, and those people are generally known for being pretty darn practical and pragmatic, said her country should brace for a 70% infection rate of the population, so close to 60 million people.
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Old 13 Mar 2020, 04:02 (Ref:3963739)   #467
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On another item, I'm sure you're familiar with sympathetic yawning. Well, think of the coughing of the anchors/commentators in the same vein. I mean, when I'm in the car with my father, and he happens to be clearing his nose a lot, my nose will start to run. If he's coughing quite a bit, it will become harder and harder not to clear my own throat. So if the people on the news are getting told about the stuff all the time, they just really can't help it with the constant reminders.

The percentages may be somewhat high, but not necessarily by as much as many think. We do have a fairly comprehensive data set with a large sample size thanks to China. And no, I don't totally trust their government by any means, but I do know that they must know it's in their best interest to give reasonably accurate information at least on this. After all, coming up with effective means of containment, as well as gauging risk, requires good data collection. It's also critical in minimizing the chance that someone will come in and reignite things with new clusters of infection.

Last edited by Purist; 13 Mar 2020 at 04:08.
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Old 13 Mar 2020, 04:19 (Ref:3963740)   #468
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it's hard to know what is the best approach. Look at Italy, where the economy has been totally disrupted .... but look at how their hospitals have been completely overwhelmed, with people not able to get treatment because there is insufficient staff and equipment.

How much worse would all that be, and how much might the economy be hit, if that situation spread at the pace it was before the lockdown? How many businesses would have closed because owners and staff were waiting to get treatment, and meanwhile spreading the virus everywhere? Ultimately, would the cost be greater to have a much higher infection- and death rate (getting exponentially worse each day because hospitals would have less and less care to offer and more and more people would get infected) or would it cost more to keep everyone home and limit the spread of the disease? That kind of stuff is impossible to calculate.

here is something else: no matter what, a large number of people are going to complain. Some will complain because they cannot watch their soccer match, or are losing money by not working .... but they would complain if they got sick, or their friends did, and if the death toll got high, they would really complain .... even though they would have been the same people saying that the government shouldn't shut things down.

if there is going to be a high financial cost anyway, but there can be a lower cost in lives .... seems like we might as well try that route.

I can guarantee, anyone complaining now, before the disease has really gotten a foothold in the U.S., would be complaining ten times as loud if they got sick, went to the hospital and couldn't get admitted.

Eventually there will be a vaccine, or the virus will die out, or mutate ..... this is a temporary situation. But it is a real thing. it is infecting a lot of people, and what has been happening in Italy shows what can happen if the virus is ignored a couple weeks too long ... and remember, you have the disease for five days before you have symptoms. Everyone reading this might have already infected half their family and friend sin the past two days---or you might have gotten infected by someone who didn't take it seriously, coughed into his hand, and shook your hand without stopping to think.

And how would you feel if you went to the meat market and the guy in the back room sawing up the sides of beef was coughing? probably he just smokes too much .... right?

And sure, kids aren't much affected .... but if half the teachers in a school get sick, I guess they would have to close the school down anyway ... but by that point the kids would have spread the virus all over--to each other, to friends' parents, to the bus drivers, ...... imagine a school bus full of kids all talking and laughing ... and one kid coughing ....

People complain, but I bet if the person behind you at the grocery store tomorrow starts coughing, you get a really creepy feeling ... or get angry that they are putting you at risk.
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Old 13 Mar 2020, 09:52 (Ref:3963787)   #469
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All are valid points from you guys. One more thing I'll point out, especially with schools closing, is that children have to cared for those hours. A lot of parents won't be able to stay home if their job is still open. Who doesn't work that could watch them if all child care and schools are closed?..... Grandparents. The most at risk age group.... Could be a counter productive step.
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Old 13 Mar 2020, 12:56 (Ref:3963849)   #470
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I think that is why they are trying to keep schools open in the UK.

But they are closed round here. We’re lucky as Mrs 43 can do the child care. At my work, if we can, we are all working from home.

But we had to make a difficult decision. My parents were flying over (Dad for Sebring), should they come? We went with no in the end, but it was a late call last night. Can never be sure if it was a good one. It was non essential and they can come over easily in the next few months (and again for November Sebring!), so we are lucky from that point of view.
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Old 13 Mar 2020, 17:36 (Ref:3963959)   #471
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I think that is why they are trying to keep schools open in the UK.

But they are closed round here. We’re lucky as Mrs 43 can do the child care. At my work, if we can, we are all working from home.

But we had to make a difficult decision. My parents were flying over (Dad for Sebring), should they come? We went with no in the end, but it was a late call last night. Can never be sure if it was a good one. It was non essential and they can come over easily in the next few months (and again for November Sebring!), so we are lucky from that point of view.
Yeah, schools are closing slowly in Atlanta too and they are scrambling for laptops/chromebooks for remote learning. And lunch programs with bagged lunches scattered through town.

The conventional thought from most of the the coworkers and neighbors has been no to grandparents. It seems like some of the neighbors are trying to find groups for the kids to take some pressure off the parents but whether that's good or not is to be seen.
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Old 13 Mar 2020, 18:35 (Ref:3963992)   #472
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We did a Working Form Home dress rehearsal today. We're preparing for a full office shutdown, and schools closing, allowing us to parent at home.

But not all workplaces can do that unfortunately.
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Old 13 Mar 2020, 18:41 (Ref:3963997)   #473
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We did a Working Form Home dress rehearsal today. We're preparing for a full office shutdown, and schools closing, allowing us to parent at home.

But not all workplaces can do that unfortunately.
is a "dress rehearsal" for working from home mean coming to work in pajamas or underwear?
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Old 13 Mar 2020, 19:00 (Ref:3964000)   #474
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Well we did a company wide video call for fun at 10, and a few people did say they were business up top and party down below.
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Old 13 Mar 2020, 19:03 (Ref:3964007)   #475
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We did a Working Form Home dress rehearsal today. We're preparing for a full office shutdown, and schools closing, allowing us to parent at home.

But not all workplaces can do that unfortunately.
I'm a lucky one. We just recently closed our brick & mortar office from downsizing but the wife is a preschool teacher. Like her, others aren't so lucky.
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Old 13 Mar 2020, 19:04 (Ref:3964008)   #476
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is a "dress rehearsal" for working from home mean coming to work in pajamas or underwear?
Not really, but it does mean just that. Like the news anchors who don't wear pants....
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Old 13 Mar 2020, 20:42 (Ref:3964026)   #477
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*remembers that pants means something different over here*
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Old 13 Mar 2020, 22:32 (Ref:3964062)   #478
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*remembers that pants means something different over here*
Yup. We all put em on the same way; one leg at a time.
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Old 14 Mar 2020, 00:38 (Ref:3964083)   #479
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Yup. We all put em on the same way; one leg at a time.
Damn, that's my problem. I jump in the air and often fall over getting one leg caught. I should try that, fewer broken noses
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Old 17 Mar 2020, 17:10 (Ref:3964989)   #480
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