Home  
Site Partners: SpotterGuides Veloce Books  
Related Sites: Your Link Here  

Go Back   TenTenths Motorsport Forum > Single Seater Racing > Formula One

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 3 Jun 2011, 04:37 (Ref:2890338)   #1
Schummy
Subscriber
Veteran
 
Schummy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location:
Somewhere near 2nd Lagrangian point
Posts: 3,259
Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!
Towards the title 2011

Can we guess who are doing well in order to contend for the title or who are already missing the train of the title?

It can help to examine what happened in past (17) seasons (i.e. the post-Senna era). The following table shows average points for title winners and for "first of losers" (i.e. title runner-up) and equivalent average position for title winners and runner up.
Code:
YEAR   AV1  POS1  AV2  POS2
2010 13.47  3.5 13.26  3.6
2009  5.59  3.4  4.94  4.1
2008  5.44  3.6  5.39  3.6
2007  6.47  2.8  6.41  2.8
2006  7.44  2.3  6.72  2.6
2005  7.00  2.5  5.89  3.1
2004  8.22  1.9  6.33  2.8
2003  5.81  3.2  5.69  3.3
2002  8.47  1.4  4.53  2.7
2001  7.24  1.7  3.82  3.2
2000  6.35  1.9  5.24  2.4
1999  4.75  2.6  4.63  2.7
1998  6.25  1.9  5.38  2.3
1997  4.76  2.6  2.47  4.5
1996  6.06  2.0  4.88  2.6
1995  6.00  2.0  4.06  3.0
1994  5.75  2.1  5.69  2.2
AV1: average points of WC
AV2: average points of runner-up
POS1: average position of WC
POS2: average position of runner-up

What all that mess of numbers means? There are some useful(?) guidelines:
  • Nobody with an equivalent average position (EAP) of 2nd (currently 18 points) or better lost a title.
  • Nobody with an EAP of 4th (currently 12 points) or worse won a title.

Moreover, a "cut line" can be marked between those who "probably" wil get the title and those who "probably" will not get it. The better cutting point results to be an average position between 2nd and 3rd, concretely position 2.5 (currently 16.5 points).

So, how all of that fit with the current classification table (after Monaco)?
Code:
Vettel   143                                                     
Hamilton  85                                                    
Webber    79                                                    
Button    76                                                    
Alonso    69                                                    
Heidfeld  29                                                    

Title:    >108
Contender: >72
Cut line:   99
Clearly Vettel is obviously on track towards the title, having 35 points more than required to "be sure" about the WC. If Vettel doesn't fall below that threshold (18 points of average or more) then the title will be decided, but if SV falls below it, the other contenders for the title would be (in current state of affairs) Hamilton, Webber, Button... and nearly Alonso. Heidfeld and the rest are totally out of that boat.

The cut line of 99 means currently only Vettel is going to probably get the title. The rest of drivers need to get a better average even if Seb eventually fails. I. e., if SV fails, someone else has to get wins to increase his average above the cut line of 16.5 points per race to get a good probability for the title.

At the end of the season those three numbers would be:
To get the title safely: >342 points
To be at least a contender: >228 points
To "probably" get the title: >313 points
Schummy is offline  
Quote
Old 3 Jun 2011, 07:23 (Ref:2890366)   #2
Adam43
14th
1% Club
 
Adam43's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
European Union
New Orleans
Posts: 42,425
Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!Adam43 is the undisputed Champion of the World!
1998 and 2000 stick out for me - very low POS for 1st and 2nd.
Along with the relatively high POS for the last few years.
Adam43 is offline  
__________________
Seriously not taking motorsport too seriously.
Quote
Old 3 Jun 2011, 07:35 (Ref:2890372)   #3
Marbot
Retired
20KPINAL
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
United Kingdom
Posts: 22,897
Marbot is going for a new lap record!Marbot is going for a new lap record!Marbot is going for a new lap record!Marbot is going for a new lap record!Marbot is going for a new lap record!Marbot is going for a new lap record!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schummy View Post
To "probably" get the title: >313 points
So, from the remaining 325 points available, Vettel needs to score just 170. Or just over half the points available to him, in order to "probably get the title" ?

Hamilton will need to score another 143 (spooky) points from from the remaining 13 races, just to be a contender. Or, to put it another way, he needs to score another 143 points just to mathematically still stand a chance of winning the title ?

170 points needed for Vettel to probably win the title and 143 points needed for his closest contender to mathematically remain in with a shout. No wonder Paddy Power are already paying out!
Marbot is offline  
Quote
Old 3 Jun 2011, 12:26 (Ref:2890485)   #4
Schummy
Subscriber
Veteran
 
Schummy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location:
Somewhere near 2nd Lagrangian point
Posts: 3,259
Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam43 View Post
1998 and 2000 stick out for me - very low POS for 1st and 2nd.
Along with the relatively high POS for the last few years.
Probably I should have put who were WC and runner-up in those years, for a better reference for our memories. I include them in a posterior post. Curiously, 1998 and 200 were two "Schumi and Hakkinen" seasons.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marbot View Post
So, from the remaining 325 points available, Vettel needs to score just 170. Or just over half the points available to him, in order to "probably get the title" ?

Hamilton will need to score another 143 (spooky) points from from the remaining 13 races, just to be a contender. Or, to put it another way, he needs to score another 143 points just to mathematically still stand a chance of winning the title ?

170 points needed for Vettel to probably win the title and 143 points needed for his closest contender to mathematically remain in with a shout. No wonder Paddy Power are already paying out!
Yeah, Hamilton needs those 143 points (in the remainder 13 races) to reach the status of "contender". It translates to an average position of 4th-5th, thus, accounting for DNFs and random events, he needs podiums here and there most of time... And he is the best placed of the current contenders!

If SV continues in this kind of form a few more races, he will become statistically unstoppable (i.e. the title will be his, barring major disasters).
Schummy is offline  
Quote
Old 3 Jun 2011, 12:28 (Ref:2890488)   #5
Schummy
Subscriber
Veteran
 
Schummy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location:
Somewhere near 2nd Lagrangian point
Posts: 3,259
Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!
Just the same table, adding World Champion and runner-up in each season.
Code:
YEAR   AV1  POS1  AV2  POS2  WC  RU
2010 13.47  3.5 13.26  3.6   SV  FA
2009  5.59  3.4  4.94  4.1   JB  SV
2008  5.44  3.6  5.39  3.6   LH  FM
2007  6.47  2.8  6.41  2.8   KR  LH
2006  7.44  2.3  6.72  2.6   FA  MS
2005  7.00  2.5  5.89  3.1   FA  KR
2004  8.22  1.9  6.33  2.8   MS  RB
2003  5.81  3.2  5.69  3.3   MS  KR
2002  8.47  1.4  4.53  2.7   MS  RB
2001  7.24  1.7  3.82  3.2   MS  DC
2000  6.35  1.9  5.24  2.4   MS  MH
1999  4.75  2.6  4.63  2.7   MH  EI
1998  6.25  1.9  5.38  2.3   MH  MS
1997  4.76  2.6  2.47  4.5   JV  HF
1996  6.06  2.0  4.88  2.6   DH  JV
1995  6.00  2.0  4.06  3.0   MS  DH
1994  5.75  2.1  5.69  2.2   MS  DH
Schummy is offline  
Quote
Old 3 Jun 2011, 15:15 (Ref:2890577)   #6
Schummy
Subscriber
Veteran
 
Schummy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location:
Somewhere near 2nd Lagrangian point
Posts: 3,259
Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!
A graph showing the evolution of average points along the six first races.



The horizontal black lines signal the three main zones: "Sure title", "title contenders" and "Not title contenders". The dotted black horizontal line signals the level for a "probable title" (note as it is slightly below "sure title" and above "title contender").

The curved lines mean the averages for each main driver: blue = Red Bull, orange = Mac, red = Ferrari, black = Renault; dashed = team's 2nd driver.

Title contenders (if Vettel goes to fall somehow in the future) are those 4 closely packed: Hamilton, Webber, Button, Alonso. This structure has been approx the same since the beginning of the season. Alonso, in fact is hanging below the contender line, Ferrari needs to climb in performance if Alonso wants to be a worthy contender, current average below 12 points is statistically not enough.
Schummy is offline  
Quote
Old 3 Jun 2011, 19:46 (Ref:2890742)   #7
Marbot
Retired
20KPINAL
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
United Kingdom
Posts: 22,897
Marbot is going for a new lap record!Marbot is going for a new lap record!Marbot is going for a new lap record!Marbot is going for a new lap record!Marbot is going for a new lap record!Marbot is going for a new lap record!
Some of the above stats have just been screwed up good and proper by the addition of another GP. What were the chances of that happening? Anyway, there's always the chance that it will get cancelled again.
Marbot is offline  
Quote
Old 6 Jun 2011, 17:33 (Ref:2892319)   #8
Schummy
Subscriber
Veteran
 
Schummy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location:
Somewhere near 2nd Lagrangian point
Posts: 3,259
Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marbot View Post
Some of the above stats have just been screwed up good and proper by the addition of another GP. What were the chances of that happening? Anyway, there's always the chance that it will get cancelled again.
I am not any surprised about Bernie's plays with Bahrain (and others "motorsport powerhouses" GPs and bizarre choice$) . Just as now we don't know if the GP is going to be run or even if the country will be existing in the form we know now.

Anyway, the impact on this system is null, as it is based on averages per races. The only "changes" would be getting total points multiplying averages by 13 or by 14. Even Nick Wirth could do it
Schummy is offline  
Quote
Old 13 Jun 2011, 15:10 (Ref:2898125)   #9
Schummy
Subscriber
Veteran
 
Schummy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location:
Somewhere near 2nd Lagrangian point
Posts: 3,259
Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!
Update after Canada.

Code:
Title:    >126
Contender: >84
Cut line:  115.5

Vettel   161 "Safe" Title
Button   101 Contender
Webber    94 Contender
Hamilton  85 Contender
Alonso    69 
Massa     32
Alonso has lost his last attachments with the "contender" category. Theoretically he can recover that position in the next two GPs, but it is going to be hard. Driver's talent and team resources are a plenty there, though.

Hamilton is now in the edge of that same "contender" zone. He needs to produce podiums to recover into it. On the other side, Button is "safe" as contender; problem is that while Vettel go on in "Safe Title" zone, "Contenders" is a meaningless concept.

Vettel will "need" two zero-points GPs to go to the edge of "Safe Title", thus Seb is well safe by now and the rest of them are mere bystanders of the Championship. Very clearly this is a title that only Vettel can lose, nobody can win it from him.
Schummy is offline  
Quote
Old 13 Jun 2011, 15:34 (Ref:2898144)   #10
Lennon
Rookie
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
United Kingdom
Bournemouth
Posts: 24
Lennon should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
Too bad... it's a really good champ, the only thing it could be better would be 2 or 3 other drivers challenging it.
Lennon is offline  
__________________
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans ..."
Quote
Old 13 Jun 2011, 18:26 (Ref:2898281)   #11
Born Racer
Race Official
Veteran
 
Born Racer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 8,974
Born Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Fame
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schummy View Post
Very clearly this is a title that only Vettel can lose, nobody can win it from him.
Not if McLaren improve their car a bit. Vettel's had some excellent wins, but he's only just pulled those off (thanks in a large part to his own talent). The Red Bull is not as dominant as has sometimes appeared to be the case (look at Webber's performances), so McLaren aren't far off being able to really challenge Vettel every race, and he is capable of making an error at the critical time (see Canada).
Born Racer is online now  
Quote
Old 13 Jun 2011, 19:59 (Ref:2898337)   #12
Schummy
Subscriber
Veteran
 
Schummy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location:
Somewhere near 2nd Lagrangian point
Posts: 3,259
Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Born Racer View Post
Not if McLaren improve their car a bit. Vettel's had some excellent wins, but he's only just pulled those off (thanks in a large part to his own talent). The Red Bull is not as dominant as has sometimes appeared to be the case (look at Webber's performances), so McLaren aren't far off being able to really challenge Vettel every race, and he is capable of making an error at the critical time (see Canada).
It's doable by Jenson... if Vettel/RBR fails somewhere (possibly several times).

If SV doesn't fail, the scenario is very difficult for JB. For example, let's suppose Mac makes a big step and JB can fight with SV on merit. Then he has to beat Seb 11-1 to get the title (counting 1st and 2nd positions). If we imagine Mac instructing Hamilton to let Button win and Lewis taking 2nd position (and Vettel 3rd), then Button still needs to beat Seb 9-3 to get the title.

In short, if SV doesn't fail in a significant way, Button has to win a lot of races in the remaining 12 races. He needs to recover 60 points in 12 races (averaging 5 per race), even extending to 12 races his ultra-dominant 7 first races of 2009 with Brawn would not do it if Seb doesn't fail.

All that changes if Vettel begins to lose podiums, particularly if he collects some zero points.
Schummy is offline  
Quote
Old 13 Jun 2011, 21:09 (Ref:2898389)   #13
Born Racer
Race Official
Veteran
 
Born Racer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 8,974
Born Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Fame
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schummy View Post

All that changes if Vettel begins to lose podiums, particularly if he collects some zero points.
Which will happen. He is unlikely to finish 1st and 2nd all the time (or is he, Ten-Tenths statistician extraordinaire? ).
Born Racer is online now  
Quote
Old 13 Jun 2011, 22:05 (Ref:2898430)   #14
Schummy
Subscriber
Veteran
 
Schummy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location:
Somewhere near 2nd Lagrangian point
Posts: 3,259
Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Born Racer View Post
Which will happen. He is unlikely to finish 1st and 2nd all the time (or is he, Ten-Tenths statistician extraordinaire? ).
I hope so!

But SV doesn't need going on with 1sts and 2nds, due to the amount of points he has massed, he just need an average of about 3rd positions in the remain of the season to get a total in the statistically "safe title" zone. For example, 50% of podiums will do it.

Button in 2009 could not follow that requirement, after the first astounding 7 races, and then he got troubles with "his" title. I hope RBR finds problems (FIA magic power to make "convenient" rules mid season can help here ) . But I'm afraid RBR has more resources than Brawn had in 2009.

As Lennon (our fellow user in 10th) said, the races are being great, but the championship is going to be undramatic at the moment. Ironically, it's the opposite of some years ago, when races were boring but the champioship was very exciting. BTW, if I had to choose, I would prefer the current situation to that other (exciting races > exciting WC).
Schummy is offline  
Quote
Old 13 Jun 2011, 23:14 (Ref:2898470)   #15
Born Racer
Race Official
Veteran
 
Born Racer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 8,974
Born Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of FameBorn Racer will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Fame
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schummy View Post
BTW, if I had to choose, I would prefer the current situation to that other (exciting races > exciting WC).
Same here. There is no way this championship is boring for me.
Born Racer is online now  
Quote
Old 13 Jun 2011, 23:57 (Ref:2898481)   #16
wnut
Veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 8,088
wnut has a real shot at the championship!wnut has a real shot at the championship!wnut has a real shot at the championship!wnut has a real shot at the championship!wnut has a real shot at the championship!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Born Racer View Post
Same here. There is no way this championship is boring for me.
Couldn't agree more the tyres and DRS have delivered some of the best racing we have ever seen. The mere fact that Vettel could be pressurised into a mistake by the charging Button in the Canadian GP shows that we are at least seeing racing and not just a parade.

Great stuff!

Thanks for your work Schummi - also great stuff!

Last edited by wnut; 14 Jun 2011 at 00:04.
wnut is offline  
Quote
Old 2 Jul 2011, 15:10 (Ref:2913937)   #17
Schummy
Subscriber
Veteran
 
Schummy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location:
Somewhere near 2nd Lagrangian point
Posts: 3,259
Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!
Let's see how drivers are going after Valencia respect this "bizarre" thing "Towards the title"

Current classification:
SV 186
JB 109
MW 109
LH 97
FA 87
FM 42

Title safe: >144
Title contender: >96
Probable title "cut line": 132

So, Seb "fingerman" Vettel is well above the safe title limit (so far), thus is very obvious that he is towards the title like a rocket. To end the season with a sure title (i.e. about 100% of being Champion) he needs 156 points in 11 races, it means and average of 14.2 points; so, if he averages a result of 3rd position from now on, he will have virtually guaranteed the WC.

The next level is the "probable title" (about 50% or more of being WC), it will be fulfilled if Seb gets 127.5 points in the next 11 races (average 11.6, 4th position); with that kind of future average he "probably" will be WC. IMO all this means SV still has to work towards the title. Those averages looks easy for his Red Bull, but if he does a "Button" he could theoretically have troubles to win the championship. In resume, the war is not over (but it is close).

Button, Webber and Hamilton are in the (low part of the) contender zone, but it is an empty tag while Seb doesn't leave the "safe title zone". Alonso continues below the contender status, his 2nd in Valencia is not enough, he needs more consistency than that.

Doing a "gap analysis", it can be seen that Button, Webber and Hamilton's task is not easy at all. The SV-JB gap is 77 points wide, with 11 races remaining, it is statistically equivalent to recover 23.2 points in one race; it is close to "unlikely", and at very least very difficult. I is going to required a acute downturn in RBR's form. Perhaps FIA can help...

Hamilton's 89 gap is equivalent to 26.8 points in one race, i.e. it is very improbable. Alonso is already virtually out of the race (again, except that little help from Big Brother at Place de la Concorde ).

In short, time is quickly becoming too short to mount a real challenge by the so-called contenders. Some more races with the current pattern and the likelihood of a non-Vettel WC will be virtually null.
Schummy is offline  
Quote
Old 2 Jul 2011, 15:17 (Ref:2913941)   #18
Mr V
Veteran
 
Mr V's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
England
The city of bridges (one day!)
Posts: 13,211
Mr V has a real shot at the championship!Mr V has a real shot at the championship!Mr V has a real shot at the championship!Mr V has a real shot at the championship!Mr V has a real shot at the championship!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schummy View Post

So, Seb "fingerman" Vettel is well above the safe title limit (so far), thus is very obvious that he is towards the title like a rocket. To end the season with a sure title (i.e. about 100% of being Champion) he needs 156 points in 11 races, it means and average of 14.2 points; so, if he averages a result of 3rd position from now on, he will have virtually guaranteed the WC.
Just out of interest, does this scenario rely on Seb only having one title contender? Say for instance just Jenson or Mark (i'll mention those two as they are closest to Vettel) winning every race from now on?

What happens if Seb doesn't win another race and Fernando, Jenson, Mark and Lewis share the 11 race wins (virtually) equally between them?
Mr V is offline  
__________________
That's so frickin uncool man!
Quote
Old 2 Jul 2011, 15:36 (Ref:2913951)   #19
Schummy
Subscriber
Veteran
 
Schummy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location:
Somewhere near 2nd Lagrangian point
Posts: 3,259
Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr V View Post
Just out of interest, does this scenario rely on Seb only having one title contender? Say for instance just Jenson or Mark (i'll mention those two as they are closest to Vettel) winning every race from now on?

What happens if Seb doesn't win another race and Fernando, Jenson, Mark and Lewis share the 11 race wins (virtually) equally between them?
The scenario implicitly accounts for more than one contender against Seb, because it is deduced by historical "analysis" where there were one or more contenders. So, if he ends the season in the "safe zone" it would be a (recent) historic novelty if he doesn't win the title, notwithstanding the number of contenders. It is similar with the "probable title" tag.

The raw possibility of SV not being WC is theoretically open until nobody winning all the races and SV getting zero points is not enough. We are far from that but that kind of scenario is extremely unreal.

Now, your scenario is more likely. Let's suppose FA, JB, MW and LH win in a balanced way the rest of the races, let's say JB, MW and LH win 3 races and FA 2 races. It means JB and MW will have 109+3*25+a*8 = 184+a*8 points, where a is the average score in the non winning races. Let's suppose a = 15 (what is pretty good), then JB (or MW) would have 304 points. So, SV will need 118 points in those 11 races, an average of 10.7 points (about 5th position) to get the title. Thus, Seb doesn't need any more wins to get the title, some podiums and some low scores will do it. It would be harder for him if those 11 races are not shared between the contenders in a balanced way but Jenson or another of them get more wins.
Schummy is offline  
Quote
Old 3 Jul 2011, 10:35 (Ref:2917258)   #20
Mr V
Veteran
 
Mr V's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
England
The city of bridges (one day!)
Posts: 13,211
Mr V has a real shot at the championship!Mr V has a real shot at the championship!Mr V has a real shot at the championship!Mr V has a real shot at the championship!Mr V has a real shot at the championship!
Righto

However, what's the likelihood of Vettel not winning another race? Lets be honest, it is looking pretty good for him!
Mr V is offline  
__________________
That's so frickin uncool man!
Quote
Old 3 Jul 2011, 11:03 (Ref:2917273)   #21
dyewat808
Veteran
 
dyewat808's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
United Kingdom
Posts: 692
dyewat808 should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schummy View Post
The scenario implicitly accounts for more than one contender against Seb, because it is deduced by historical "analysis" where there were one or more contenders. So, if he ends the season in the "safe zone" it would be a (recent) historic novelty if he doesn't win the title, notwithstanding the number of contenders. It is similar with the "probable title" tag.

The raw possibility of SV not being WC is theoretically open until nobody winning all the races and SV getting zero points is not enough. We are far from that but that kind of scenario is extremely unreal.

Now, your scenario is more likely. Let's suppose FA, JB, MW and LH win in a balanced way the rest of the races, let's say JB, MW and LH win 3 races and FA 2 races. It means JB and MW will have 109+3*25+a*8 = 184+a*8 points, where a is the average score in the non winning races. Let's suppose a = 15 (what is pretty good), then JB (or MW) would have 304 points. So, SV will need 118 points in those 11 races, an average of 10.7 points (about 5th position) to get the title. Thus, Seb doesn't need any more wins to get the title, some podiums and some low scores will do it. It would be harder for him if those 11 races are not shared between the contenders in a balanced way but Jenson or another of them get more wins.
Schummy you should work for the bookies - this is fascinating reading! The interesting statistic for me was about Vettel needing to average 3rd place - the other drivers should be seriously worried!
dyewat808 is offline  
__________________
Please, call me dye.
Quote
Old 3 Jul 2011, 11:29 (Ref:2917292)   #22
Marbot
Retired
20KPINAL
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
United Kingdom
Posts: 22,897
Marbot is going for a new lap record!Marbot is going for a new lap record!Marbot is going for a new lap record!Marbot is going for a new lap record!Marbot is going for a new lap record!Marbot is going for a new lap record!
Unless Vettel DNFs for some reason, he's very unlikely to finish off the podium positions. And even if he didn't manage to do that at every race, one of the other protagonists has to 'step up to the plate' on a regular basis in order to make him feel even slightly worried.

It's a bit like 2009 in a way, only I don't think that anyone has close to anything like a double diffuser to put on their car that will allow them to catch Red Bull up.

If Schummy were to do the stats for 'car most likely to win remaining races'.....
Marbot is offline  
Quote
Old 3 Jul 2011, 14:56 (Ref:2917444)   #23
Schummy
Subscriber
Veteran
 
Schummy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location:
Somewhere near 2nd Lagrangian point
Posts: 3,259
Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marbot View Post
If Schummy were to do the stats for 'car most likely to win remaining races'.....
Without any calculations, I think that perhaps maybe that car is not Hispania.
Schummy is offline  
Quote
Old 10 Jul 2011, 20:04 (Ref:2924721)   #24
Schummy
Subscriber
Veteran
 
Schummy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location:
Somewhere near 2nd Lagrangian point
Posts: 3,259
Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!
A quick update after today's British GP.

VET 204 Safe title
WEB 124 (Candidate)
ALO 112 (Candidate)
HAM 109 (Candidate)
BUT 109 (Candidate)
MAS 52

Limits:
Safe title: >162 (18x)
Candidate: >108 (12x)
Probable title: 148.5 (16.5x)

The only significant change is now Alonso has entered the low zone of the "candidate zone". However, as already said, "candidate" is a empty concept if "someone" is in the "safe title zone". "Candidate" only is in effect if Vettel exits that safe zone. By the way, Vettel continues exactly as formerly, with a 42 points margin into the "safe title zone", so is not better than before for the rest of the contenders.

The gap analysis shows that now Webber is at an equivalent one-race gap of 25.5 points, i.e. is in the edge of unlikelihood. The rest are in worse situation: Alonso is at 29.1 points and Hamilton and Button are at 30.0 points. As number of races to go decreases, the candidates have to cut the gap or their task will be even harder. Except Alonso, in Silverstone Vettel has increased the gap (with one less race to go) respect his pursuers.

Thus Vettel is as stronger a title contender as before. The only mild cloud in the parade is perhaps FIA's decisions can make Ferrari relatively faster and Alonso is a threat if you give him a tiny opportunity. If FIA doesn't interfere, data shows is very difficult that Vettel loses this title (please, note the conditional! )
Schummy is offline  
Quote
Old 12 Jul 2011, 07:19 (Ref:2925399)   #25
Asa
Veteran
 
Asa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Hong Kong
Disneyland
Posts: 1,216
Asa should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
Vettel can win the title by finishing 2nd in all the remaining races. So even if Ferrari built a rocket car and Alonso wins the 10 remaining races, he can't be world champion if Vettel finishes behind him.

Also, if Vettel wins 1 more race, then he can finish 3rd in the other 9 races and still win the title.
Asa is offline  
Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
[FIA GT Race] 2011 GT1 WC Round 1 • Yas Marinas • March 25/26 2011 Yakuncha Sportscar & GT Racing 74 15 Apr 2011 19:45
[FIA GT Race] 2011 GT1 WC Round 2 • Zolder • April 9/10 2011 Yakuncha Sportscar & GT Racing 83 13 Apr 2011 12:20
Round 2 - 2011 Moto GP 2011, Jerez frostie Bike Racing 19 4 Apr 2011 15:08
Will Rahal fight for the title since 2011? marcostraz Indycar Series 4 19 Dec 2010 21:33
could it be his best title yet? paddywic Formula One 4 29 Sep 2003 17:03


All times are GMT. The time now is 01:28.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Original Website Copyright © 1998-2003 Craig Antil. All Rights Reserved.
Ten-Tenths Motorsport Forums Copyright © 2004-2021 Royalridge Computing. All Rights Reserved.
Ten-Tenths Motorsport Forums Copyright © 2021-2022 Grant MacDonald. All Rights Reserved.