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15 Apr 2020, 19:27 (Ref:3971004)
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#16
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 6,951
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Evantra
Yeah... lost me when Crees and Osborne were rated better than Morgan...
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It's not just the driver alone that earns the ranking.
It's a combination of driver, team and car. The A-Class (and subsequently Ciceley) is getting worse.
The team only achieved 10th in Teams, and 11th in Independents last season so statistically do not perform well.
Crees and Osborne, based on the teams and cars for 2020, should (on paper) outperform an A-Class.
It does show though, people's opinions will always differ to what the statistics tell you. But I'd be interested to see an argument for an A-Class to outperform an FK8 or FK2.
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15 Apr 2020, 19:35 (Ref:3971009)
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#17
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Racer
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 177
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crmalcolm
It's not just the driver alone that earns the ranking.
It's a combination of driver, team and car. The A-Class (and subsequently Ciceley) is getting worse.
The team only achieved 10th in Teams, and 11th in Independents last season so statistically do not perform well.
Crees and Osborne, based on the teams and cars for 2020, should (on paper) outperform an A-Class.
It does show though, people's opinions will always differ to what the statistics tell you. But I'd be interested to see an argument for an A-Class to outperform an FK8 or FK2.
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Well how do statistics rank 10 drivers worse than Andy Neate who hasn’t driven a touring car for 3 years in a car that’s not raced yet.
This isn’t aimed at slagging Neate off just wondering how statistics have come to this conclusion
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15 Apr 2020, 20:08 (Ref:3971013)
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#18
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Racer
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 200
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So based on these statistics and algorithms that I'm not sure anyone understands, what is running this simulation and why has it taken best part of a day to get to the first corner when qualifying only took you an hour or so
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15 Apr 2020, 21:16 (Ref:3971025)
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#19
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 6,951
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pdh
Well how do statistics rank 10 drivers worse than Andy Neate who hasn’t driven a touring car for 3 years in a car that’s not raced yet.
This isn’t aimed at slagging Neate off just wondering how statistics have come to this conclusion
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I appreciate that statistics will always throw up anomalies that may not make sense.
In the case of Neate, there are two main factors:
A) An assumption is made that the new focus will perform at least as well as the old one.
B) Motorbase had some decent results last season.
Put those together, and anyone in that car/team looks reasonable on paper.
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15 Apr 2020, 21:18 (Ref:3971028)
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#20
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 6,951
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mj088
So based on these statistics and algorithms that I'm not sure anyone understands, what is running this simulation and why has it taken best part of a day to get to the first corner when qualifying only took you an hour or so
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Qualifying took more than an hour, but progress through the season will be as and when I can crunch the numbers.
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16 Apr 2020, 00:07 (Ref:3971052)
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#21
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Racer
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 200
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But crunch the numbers on what? What program is this or is it just a sliding spreadsheet in your head?
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16 Apr 2020, 01:32 (Ref:3971060)
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#22
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 2,330
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Let me speed things up for you:
Cook would be leading the championship leaving Donington, having picked up two wins. Jordan would win the other race and would be second in the championship. Cammish is third, with Hill, Turkington and Ingram next.
At Brands, Chilton will take pole.
Carry on.
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16 Apr 2020, 07:04 (Ref:3971077)
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#23
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 6,951
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mj088
But crunch the numbers on what? What program is this or is it just a sliding spreadsheet in your head?
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It's all being ran on Iceberg-Lite (Desktop version).
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16 Apr 2020, 10:39 (Ref:3971097)
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#24
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2002
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European Capital of Culture 2008 |
Posts: 2,688
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Can we add random elements?
This guy invaded the track on lap 8, but got run over by Jason Plato.
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__________________
When I look fast, I'm not smooth and I am going slowly. And when I look slow, I am smooth and going fast. - Alain Prost
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16 Apr 2020, 10:57 (Ref:3971100)
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#25
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 6,951
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Quote:
Originally Posted by steve_r
Can we add random elements?
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It's something I'd consider on a future iteration. For now, given that I am using software that would normally have a team of analysts providing data to, I have to keep the range of potential 'outcomes' to a minimum.
I'm still learning the software, so I expect that a fair amount of refinement is possible.
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__________________
Sheen:Jealousy is the tribute mediocrity pays to genius.
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16 Apr 2020, 12:25 (Ref:3971124)
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#26
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Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 12,621
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Don’t think we’ve ever had a track invasion at a BTCC, at least not in this lifetime
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__________________
He who dares wins!
He who hesitates is lost!
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16 Apr 2020, 13:52 (Ref:3971138)
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#27
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 Race Official Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 9,601
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Quote:
Originally Posted by S griffin
Don’t think we’ve ever had a track invasion at a BTCC, at least not in this lifetime
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You might argue that some of the drivers had no right to be there 
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16 Apr 2020, 13:58 (Ref:3971139)
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#28
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 6,951
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Do bales and floppy markers count as invaders?
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__________________
Sheen:Jealousy is the tribute mediocrity pays to genius.
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16 Apr 2020, 17:06 (Ref:3971171)
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#29
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 2,402
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Quote:
Originally Posted by S griffin
Don’t think we’ve ever had a track invasion at a BTCC, at least not in this lifetime
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We'll have to organise a herd of big horned moo cows for when racing resumes...
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16 Apr 2020, 18:55 (Ref:3971199)
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#30
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 1999
Posts: 8,200
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Quote:
Originally Posted by S griffin
Don’t think we’ve ever had a track invasion at a BTCC, at least not in this lifetime
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Google "Bay City Rollers Mallory Park", albeit not a BTCC event
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