Home Mobile Forum News Cookbook FaceBook Us T-Shirts etc.: Europe/Worldwide. eBay Motorsport Links Advertising  
Site Partners: SpotterGuides Veloce Books  
Related Sites: Baltic Touring Car Championship Your Link Here  

Go Back   TenTenths Motorsport Forum > Saloon & Sportscar Racing > WTCC & European Touring Car Series


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 15 Apr 2020, 07:26 (Ref:3970898)   #1
crmalcolm
Veteran
 
crmalcolm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Ireland
Posts: 6,442
crmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Fame
Hypothetical BTCC 2020 Season

With the start of the 2020 season still not certain, and cars not heading onto track in any capacity at the moment, I began to wonder if there was a way to predict how the season could have panned out if it went ahead as planned.

So, just for fun, and to hopefully provide a little bit of entertainment for those on the forum, I have developed a hypothetical 2020 season result predictor.

In compiling the tool, a number of factors have been calculated as follows:

Driver Base Skill
Driver Form
Team Skill
Team Form
Car Skill
Car Form

All of these characteristics have been derived from results and statistical analysis, which means the 'scores' are weighted to those with more experience. But for the purposes of this run through, they seem to suffice.

At this stage, I am unsure what the results will be, or even how realistic they may appear. When an element of randomness is entered, it might see crazy results, or it might be a bit too predictable.

I will share the results in this thread as the hypothetical season develops, and hope that others enjoy what is, as a I said, just for fun and general interest.
crmalcolm is offline  
__________________
Sheen:Jealousy is the tribute mediocrity pays to genius.
Quote
Old 15 Apr 2020, 07:38 (Ref:3970901)   #2
crmalcolm
Veteran
 
crmalcolm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Ireland
Posts: 6,442
crmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Fame
Before the hypothetical season gets underway, the ranking of each driver (and so theoretically the predicted final championship positions) is as follows:

Turkington,
Cammish,
Jordan,
Neal,
Oliphant,
Cook,
Chilton,
Plato,
Hill,
Ingram,
Butcher,
M.Jackson,
Crees,
Sutton,
O.Jackson,
Osborne,
Morgan,
Thompson,
Neate,
Moffat,
Gornall,
Jelley,
Bushell,
Smiley,
Rowbottom,
Goff,
Proctor,
Boardley,
Hamilton
crmalcolm is offline  
__________________
Sheen:Jealousy is the tribute mediocrity pays to genius.
Quote
Old 15 Apr 2020, 09:30 (Ref:3970912)   #3
Greem
Subscriber
Veteran
 
Greem's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
United Kingdom
Posts: 3,797
Greem is the undisputed Champion of the World!Greem is the undisputed Champion of the World!Greem is the undisputed Champion of the World!Greem is the undisputed Champion of the World!Greem is the undisputed Champion of the World!Greem is the undisputed Champion of the World!Greem is the undisputed Champion of the World!Greem is the undisputed Champion of the World!Greem is the undisputed Champion of the World!Greem is the undisputed Champion of the World!Greem is the undisputed Champion of the World!
Hold on, I need some popcorn for this one

I know you explained the reasoning behind the ranking but there are several regulars on this forum who will, I predict, take you to task for Driver A being above drivers B, G, H and Z!

(Note that the letters here are hypothetical, not lines in a spreadsheet and nothing to do with the list above)
Greem is online now  
__________________
Walk a mile in someone else's shoes.
When they realise you have, you'll be a mile away and you'll have their shoes.
Quote
Old 15 Apr 2020, 10:01 (Ref:3970917)   #4
crmalcolm
Veteran
 
crmalcolm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Ireland
Posts: 6,442
crmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Fame
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greem View Post
I know you explained the reasoning behind the ranking but there are several regulars on this forum who will, I predict, take you to task for Driver A being above drivers B, G, H and Z!
I highly expect that to be the case. Hopefully the results, ranking and methodology will be accepted as not intended to indicate a real-world assessment. I could have selected drivers/teams/cars at random and not based it on the 2020 season, but I hope this way there is a bit more to hook people's interest.

I genuinely have no idea how the results will turn out yet, and I have avoided trying to 'load' the background calculations and figures in favour of any particular entity.

The ranking already shows how this is difficult to achieve.
Oliphant appears higher than possibly expected because the car and team have had so much recent success.
Ingram appears lower down than expected, as a result of Speedworks operating as a single-car team. When Ingram had a bad day last season, the driver, car and team were all impacted.

One thing that struck me was how well AmD, and in particular, Tordoff, performed last season. This has had a knock-on effect on anyone sat in an AmD car in this hypothetical season.
crmalcolm is offline  
__________________
Sheen:Jealousy is the tribute mediocrity pays to genius.
Quote
Old 15 Apr 2020, 10:30 (Ref:3970921)   #5
crmalcolm
Veteran
 
crmalcolm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Ireland
Posts: 6,442
crmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Fame
So today, we look at Qualifying for the first Race at Donington.

Part of the modelling does mean that Qualifying is one of the more 'random' elements of the weekend, and so results may vary wildly.

Once everything has been run through the 'predictor', the grid for Race One is as follows:

1 - Morgan
2 - Jelley
3 - Neal
4 - Plato
5 - Goff
6 - Oliphant
7 - Ingram
8 - Smiley
9 - Proctor
10 - Hill
11 - Boardley
12 - Moffat
13 - Jordan
14 - Neate
15 - Cook
16 - Sutton
17 - Cammish
18 - Hamilton
19 - Butcher
20 - O.Jackson
21 - Bushell
22 - Gornall
23 - Chilton
24 - Osborne
25 - Crees
26 - M.Jackson
27 - Turkington
28 - Thompson
29 - Rowbottom


So a few surprises in the results.
The 1-series looks to have gone well in the early conditions, and the experienced heads of Neal and Plato managed to get good results.
Last season's main title contenders all looked to struggle to get to grips. Perhaps the pressure got to them all, or they got a bit bunched up in traffic.

It does look like we might have a BMW leading into the first corner of the season, but not necessarily the model we were expecting?
crmalcolm is offline  
__________________
Sheen:Jealousy is the tribute mediocrity pays to genius.
Quote
Old 15 Apr 2020, 14:20 (Ref:3970954)   #6
Pdh
Racer
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 155
Pdh should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
Quote:
Originally Posted by crmalcolm View Post
So today, we look at Qualifying for the first Race at Donington.

Part of the modelling does mean that Qualifying is one of the more 'random' elements of the weekend, and so results may vary wildly.

Once everything has been run through the 'predictor', the grid for Race One is as follows:

1 - Morgan
2 - Jelley
3 - Neal
4 - Plato
5 - Goff
6 - Oliphant
7 - Ingram
8 - Smiley
9 - Proctor
10 - Hill
11 - Boardley
12 - Moffat
13 - Jordan
14 - Neate
15 - Cook
16 - Sutton
17 - Cammish
18 - Hamilton
19 - Butcher
20 - O.Jackson
21 - Bushell
22 - Gornall
23 - Chilton
24 - Osborne
25 - Crees
26 - M.Jackson
27 - Turkington
28 - Thompson
29 - Rowbottom


So a few surprises in the results.
The 1-series looks to have gone well in the early conditions, and the experienced heads of Neal and Plato managed to get good results.
Last season's main title contenders all looked to struggle to get to grips. Perhaps the pressure got to them all, or they got a bit bunched up in traffic.

It does look like we might have a BMW leading into the first corner of the season, but not necessarily the model we were expecting?
Even Alan Gow couldn’t manipulate the grid to look like that in real life
Pdh is offline  
Quote
Old 15 Apr 2020, 14:28 (Ref:3970956)   #7
mj088
Racer
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 194
mj088 should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
Can you explain your "calculation" and how you decided to rank the drivers in that order please as this otherwise just looks like you are randomly listing out driver names
mj088 is offline  
Quote
Old 15 Apr 2020, 14:46 (Ref:3970958)   #8
steve_r
Veteran
 
steve_r's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
England
European Capital of Culture 2008
Posts: 2,599
steve_r should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridsteve_r should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridsteve_r should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridsteve_r should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
My brain just fell out of my ear trying to understand this thread. It was sort of making sense until I saw the drivers you had listed as qualifying behind Nick Hamilton, especially the one in 27th.
steve_r is online now  
__________________
"If everything seems under control, you're just not going fast enough."
Quote
Old 15 Apr 2020, 15:07 (Ref:3970963)   #9
crmalcolm
Veteran
 
crmalcolm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Ireland
Posts: 6,442
crmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Fame
Quote:
Originally Posted by steve_r View Post
It was sort of making sense until I saw the drivers you had listed as qualifying behind Nick Hamilton, especially the one in 27th.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greem View Post
there are several regulars on this forum who will, I predict, take you to task for Driver A being above drivers B, G, H and Z!
As I explained - there is an element of randomness to this - otherwise the result would be known before the simulated series even began.

I see a particular driver was highlighted (27th) and it would seem illogical for them to be that low based on last season's results.
Who knows:
Perhaps the weather closed in suddenly (it was Donington in March)?
Maybe the car failed a ride-height check?
Grid Penalty for blocking?
Overboost on the engine?

Any one driver can have a bad day qualifying.

Just for reference though - Hamilton qualified in 20th at Round One in 2019 so is it too much of a stretch for him to have got an 18th?
In 2018, Turkington qualified 18th at Silverstone, and 17th at Brands - again, he is capable of having a bad performance on occasion.
crmalcolm is offline  
__________________
Sheen:Jealousy is the tribute mediocrity pays to genius.
Quote
Old 15 Apr 2020, 15:13 (Ref:3970965)   #10
crmalcolm
Veteran
 
crmalcolm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Ireland
Posts: 6,442
crmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Fame
Quote:
Originally Posted by mj088 View Post
Can you explain your "calculation" and how you decided to rank the drivers in that order please as this otherwise just looks like you are randomly listing out driver names
In short:

Driver Skill is a weighted summation of their previous titles, wins, podiums, winning percentage and podium percentage - with weighting towards BTCC titles and wins.
Driver Performance is a combination of a rolling score based on their last 30 races, along with a weighted score towards recent results to induce an element of 'form'.
Team and Car Skill/Performance scores are determined in a similar manner.

Therefore - drivers who have moved to a team who have been more successful recently may have a better score than staying where they are.

Full calculations would be too complex to list here, but a summary of the starting values for each driver is as follows (final figure is the basis for rank):

Turkington 330i WSR 100 77.3 84.6375 99 88.6 100 88.6 638.1375
Oliphant 330i WSR 81 63.5 76.9475 99 88.6 100 88.6 597.6475
Jordan 330i WSR 96 76.5 85.515 99 88.6 100 88.6 634.215
Jackson.M Astra PMR 93 63.2 77.2425 79 76 75 76 539.4425
Plato Astra PMR 99 71 82.73 79 76 75 76 558.73
Neal FK8 Dynamics 98 67.7 78.6925 100 85.6 99 91.9 620.8925
Cammish FK8 Dynamics 97 77.8 86.1775 100 85.6 99 91.9 637.4775
Ingram Corolla Speedworks 94 69.9 80.015 88 69.9 75 69.9 546.715
Chilton FK8 BTC 88 63.3 75.72 89 76.6 99 91.9 583.52
Cook FK8 BTC 74 72 81.0475 89 76.6 99 91.9 583.5475
Crees FK8 BTC 75 28.3 53.69 89 76.6 99 91.9 513.49
Osborne FK2 AmD 55 24.4 52.1475 90 84 85 84 474.5475
Hill FK2 AmD 87 55.5 71.68 90 84 85 84 557.18
Butcher Focus ST Motorbase 90 72.9 82.4525 80 73.8 75 69 543.1525
Neate Focus ST Motorbase 55 43.1 62.305 80 73.8 75 69 458.205
O.Jackson Focus ST Motorbase 70 50.1 70.4775 80 73.8 75 69 488.3775
Jelley 125i Parkers 82 48.5 65.51 70 48.5 70 48.5 433.01
Moffat Q50 Laser 64 54 70.56 68 54 75 54 439.56
Sutton Q50 Laser 95 69.3 79.3 68 54 75 54 494.6
Proctor i30 Excelr8 65 40.9 61.19 67 35.5 75 62 406.59
Smiley i30 Excelr8 69 50.9 68.54 67 35.5 75 62 427.94
Thompson S3 AmD 67 40.4 62.475 90 84 60 60.7 464.575
Gornall S3 AmD 89 10 42.625 90 84 60 60.7 436.325
Bushell CC HARD 86 43.5 64.5525 69 54.5 60 54.5 432.0525
Goff CC HARD 73 42.3 63.0775 69 54.5 60 54.5 416.3775
Hamilton CC HARD 55 27.7 53.415 69 54.5 60 54.5 374.115
Boardley 125i HARD 68 30.1 56.105 69 54.5 70 48.5 396.205
Rowbottom A-Class Ciceley 66 36.1 59.455 69 61.2 70 61.2 422.955
Morgan A-Class Ciceley 80 54.8 70.59 69 61.2 70 61.2 466.79
crmalcolm is offline  
__________________
Sheen:Jealousy is the tribute mediocrity pays to genius.
Quote
Old 15 Apr 2020, 15:15 (Ref:3970966)   #11
crmalcolm
Veteran
 
crmalcolm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Ireland
Posts: 6,442
crmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Fame
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pdh View Post
Even Alan Gow couldn’t manipulate the grid to look like that in real life
True!


But then - do you remember the qualifying results from Silverstone 2018?

https://www.tsl-timing.com/event/183703/session/qu1trg
crmalcolm is offline  
__________________
Sheen:Jealousy is the tribute mediocrity pays to genius.
Quote
Old 15 Apr 2020, 15:26 (Ref:3970969)   #12
crmalcolm
Veteran
 
crmalcolm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Ireland
Posts: 6,442
crmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Famecrmalcolm will be entering the Motorsport Hall of Fame
Final update for today, the first bit of race action.
Once the grid was formed up, there was an expectation that RWD cars would (as always) gain a start line advantage.
This turned out to be so, and the running order as the field heads through the first corner is:

Jelley - having made a solid start
Morgan - passed by Jelley on the start, but otherwise holds his position
Oliphant - again making advantage of RWD, and closing on Morgan fast
Neal - a bit slower away than Oliphant, but otherwise solid
Goff,
Plato - slightly slow away and passed by a couple of cars
Ingram,
Moffat - seems to have really got the hang of getting the Q50 away in race trim
Jordan - followed Moffat through a few of the slower starters
Boardley,
Sutton - stabbed rat comes to mind
Smiley, Proctor, Hill - all passed by RWD cars off the line in the middle of the field bunching
Neate,
Cook,
Cammish,
Hamilton,
Butcher,
O.Jackson,
Bushell,
Gornall,
Chilton,
Turkington - another to benefit from RWD, making up 3 places before the first turn
Crees,
M.Jackson,
Osborne - seemed to get bogged down a bit
Thompson and finally Rowbottom bringing up the rear.
crmalcolm is offline  
__________________
Sheen:Jealousy is the tribute mediocrity pays to genius.
Quote
Old 15 Apr 2020, 16:21 (Ref:3970977)   #13
mj088
Racer
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 194
mj088 should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
I admire your effort but this whole thread is just bizarre, can tell its lockdown time.
mj088 is offline  
Quote
Old 15 Apr 2020, 16:53 (Ref:3970986)   #14
Alfisti
Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
England
North Yorkshire, England
Posts: 2,193
Alfisti should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridAlfisti should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridAlfisti should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridAlfisti should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
Quote:
Originally Posted by steve_r View Post
My brain just fell out of my ear trying to understand this thread. It was sort of making sense until I saw the drivers you had listed as qualifying behind Nick Hamilton, especially the one in 27th.
Ok, I'm glad you said this I thought my brain had been reduced to mushy peas.

Hypothetically a back end of a BMW would have been misshapen by a hypothetical Honda I should imagine. Probably. Anyway, mines a tank so I win.
Alfisti is offline  
Quote
Old 15 Apr 2020, 17:44 (Ref:3970995)   #15
Evantra
Veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
England
Posts: 1,585
Evantra should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridEvantra should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
Quote:
Originally Posted by mj088 View Post
I admire your effort but this whole thread is just bizarre, can tell its lockdown time.
Yeah... lost me when Crees and Osborne were rated better than Morgan...
Evantra is online now  
Quote
Reply

Bookmarks




Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
[BTCC] BTCC 2020 season discussion, News and Rumours! sceptic WTCC & European Touring Car Series 7997 16 Oct 2020 19:31
[Team] 2020 Season Launch/Pre-Season Testing chillibowl Formula One 253 9 Jul 2020 18:40
hypothetical 2013 silly season simon5574 Australasian Touring Cars. 17 21 Sep 2011 12:08
[WTCC] The hypothetical WTCC hoffy WTCC & European Touring Car Series 55 7 Jul 2002 00:08


Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT. The time now is 11:23.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Original Website Copyright © 1998-2003 Craig Antil. All Rights Reserved.
Ten-Tenths Motorsport Forums Copyright © 2004-2018 Royalridge Computing. All Rights Reserved.