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Old 15 Apr 2020, 18:27 (Ref:3971004)   #16
crmalcolm
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Originally Posted by Evantra View Post
Yeah... lost me when Crees and Osborne were rated better than Morgan...
It's not just the driver alone that earns the ranking.
It's a combination of driver, team and car. The A-Class (and subsequently Ciceley) is getting worse.
The team only achieved 10th in Teams, and 11th in Independents last season so statistically do not perform well.

Crees and Osborne, based on the teams and cars for 2020, should (on paper) outperform an A-Class.

It does show though, people's opinions will always differ to what the statistics tell you. But I'd be interested to see an argument for an A-Class to outperform an FK8 or FK2.
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 18:35 (Ref:3971009)   #17
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Pdh should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
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Originally Posted by crmalcolm View Post
It's not just the driver alone that earns the ranking.
It's a combination of driver, team and car. The A-Class (and subsequently Ciceley) is getting worse.
The team only achieved 10th in Teams, and 11th in Independents last season so statistically do not perform well.

Crees and Osborne, based on the teams and cars for 2020, should (on paper) outperform an A-Class.

It does show though, people's opinions will always differ to what the statistics tell you. But I'd be interested to see an argument for an A-Class to outperform an FK8 or FK2.
Well how do statistics rank 10 drivers worse than Andy Neate who hasnít driven a touring car for 3 years in a car thatís not raced yet.
This isnít aimed at slagging Neate off just wondering how statistics have come to this conclusion
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 19:08 (Ref:3971013)   #18
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mj088 should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
So based on these statistics and algorithms that I'm not sure anyone understands, what is running this simulation and why has it taken best part of a day to get to the first corner when qualifying only took you an hour or so
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 20:16 (Ref:3971025)   #19
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Originally Posted by Pdh View Post
Well how do statistics rank 10 drivers worse than Andy Neate who hasnít driven a touring car for 3 years in a car thatís not raced yet.
This isnít aimed at slagging Neate off just wondering how statistics have come to this conclusion
I appreciate that statistics will always throw up anomalies that may not make sense.

In the case of Neate, there are two main factors:

A) An assumption is made that the new focus will perform at least as well as the old one.
B) Motorbase had some decent results last season.

Put those together, and anyone in that car/team looks reasonable on paper.
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 20:18 (Ref:3971028)   #20
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Originally Posted by mj088 View Post
So based on these statistics and algorithms that I'm not sure anyone understands, what is running this simulation and why has it taken best part of a day to get to the first corner when qualifying only took you an hour or so
Qualifying took more than an hour, but progress through the season will be as and when I can crunch the numbers.
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Old 15 Apr 2020, 23:07 (Ref:3971052)   #21
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mj088 should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
But crunch the numbers on what? What program is this or is it just a sliding spreadsheet in your head?
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Old 16 Apr 2020, 00:32 (Ref:3971060)   #22
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sceptic should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
Let me speed things up for you:

Cook would be leading the championship leaving Donington, having picked up two wins. Jordan would win the other race and would be second in the championship. Cammish is third, with Hill, Turkington and Ingram next.

At Brands, Chilton will take pole.

Carry on.
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Old 16 Apr 2020, 06:04 (Ref:3971077)   #23
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But crunch the numbers on what? What program is this or is it just a sliding spreadsheet in your head?
It's all being ran on Iceberg-Lite (Desktop version).
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Old 16 Apr 2020, 09:39 (Ref:3971097)   #24
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steve_r should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridsteve_r should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridsteve_r should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridsteve_r should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
Can we add random elements?

This guy invaded the track on lap 8, but got run over by Jason Plato.



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Old 16 Apr 2020, 09:57 (Ref:3971100)   #25
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Originally Posted by steve_r View Post
Can we add random elements?
It's something I'd consider on a future iteration. For now, given that I am using software that would normally have a team of analysts providing data to, I have to keep the range of potential 'outcomes' to a minimum.

I'm still learning the software, so I expect that a fair amount of refinement is possible.
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Old 16 Apr 2020, 11:25 (Ref:3971124)   #26
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Donít think weíve ever had a track invasion at a BTCC, at least not in this lifetime
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Old 16 Apr 2020, 12:52 (Ref:3971138)   #27
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Donít think weíve ever had a track invasion at a BTCC, at least not in this lifetime
You might argue that some of the drivers had no right to be there
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Old 16 Apr 2020, 12:58 (Ref:3971139)   #28
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Do bales and floppy markers count as invaders?
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Old 16 Apr 2020, 16:06 (Ref:3971171)   #29
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Alfisti should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridAlfisti should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridAlfisti should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridAlfisti should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
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Originally Posted by S griffin View Post
Donít think weíve ever had a track invasion at a BTCC, at least not in this lifetime
We'll have to organise a herd of big horned moo cows for when racing resumes...
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Old 16 Apr 2020, 17:55 (Ref:3971199)   #30
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Donít think weíve ever had a track invasion at a BTCC, at least not in this lifetime
Google "Bay City Rollers Mallory Park", albeit not a BTCC event
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