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Old 28 Aug 2020, 07:48 (Ref:3998442)   #16
Schummy
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After the Spanish GP and before Belgium's race, taking into account we expect to have 11 races to go.

Code:
          gap   ORG  Title
--------------------------
HAM  mer             86%  
VER  rbr  -37  11.2   7%  
BOT  mer  -43  13.0   5%  
LEC  fer  -87  26.2   0.4%
STR  mcl  -92  27.7   0.3%
ALB  rbr  -92  27.7   0.3%
--------------------------
After 6 races and with 11 races to go, LH has already approx 86% of chance to get the title. It speaks volumes about what great competition we have enjoying.

In order to maintain their slim probabilities, VER and BOT need to recover 2 points from HAM.

To improve and become somewhat like contenders, VER and BOT need to recover 6 and 12 points from Lewis.

If HAM wins and BOT gets 0 points, Valtteri will be practically out of the championship, with a probability for the title of approx 1%. It then would become a two horse "race" or rather a horse and a limping donkey race.
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Old 29 Aug 2020, 16:22 (Ref:3998731)   #17
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You have to say, looking at the stats, Hamilton has a very real shot at the title here.

And I mean that.
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Old 31 Aug 2020, 09:22 (Ref:3999163)   #18
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A shot with a bazooka, methinks

Update after the "surprising" GP Belgium (surprised for not having rain)

Code:
         gap   ORG  Prob  
HAM  mer[157]        92%  
VER  rbr  -47  14.9   4%  
BOT  mer  -50  15.8   4%  
ALB  rbr -109  34.5   0.1%
NOR  mcl -112  35.4   0.1 
LEC  fer -112  35.4   0.1%
STR  mcl -115  36.4   0.1%
I have included Albon et alter just for comedy purpose.

Ferrari's form is becoming to be tragic. Look at the position of the teams with Ferrari engines... I wonder if they have erroneously built a F2 engine. In particular, Ferrari team is looking very, very embarrassing. We all wonder what happened with last year's engine...

Poor Sainz... he is doing the infamous Alonso's path to hell. He is even driving for the same teams.
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Old 31 Aug 2020, 11:11 (Ref:3999180)   #19
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Ferrari's form is becoming to be tragic. Look at the position of the teams with Ferrari engines... I wonder if they have erroneously built a F2 engine. In particular, Ferrari team is looking very, very embarrassing. We all wonder what happened with last year's engine...
Embarrassing for Ferrari, yes. It really makes me wonder what they were doing with last year's engine to give it such a margin of superiority over this year's. I don't subscribe to the idea that Formula 1 "needs" Ferrari to be competitive though. They're just another team. We have Red Bull, Renault, McLaren and Racing Point to try to put some pressure on Mercedes.

Enzo must be turning in his grave. He famously believed that motor racing was all about the engine, and the chassis was just there to stop the engine scraping on the ground.
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Old 31 Aug 2020, 11:14 (Ref:3999182)   #20
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Originally Posted by Schummy View Post
Poor Sainz... he is doing the infamous Alonso's path to hell. He is even driving for the same teams.
No doubt he's got his lawyers poring through the contract for an escape clause. And they will be telling him what a wonderful job they did of giving him a cast-iron contract.

I really do sympathise with Carlos, because I like him. However, even if he could get out of the Ferrari contract, there would be nowhere else to go.
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Old 8 Oct 2020, 07:19 (Ref:4009103)   #21
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It is almost unnecessary to put the One-Race Gap to guess who has good probabilities to be Champion, but here we go:
Code:
          gap   ORG 
HAM  mer [205]      
BOT  mer  -44  16.6 
VER  rbr  -77  29.1 
NOR  mcl -140  52.9 
ALB  rbr -141  53.3 
RIC  ren -142  53.7
If there was just one race to go, Bottas would need 17 points over Hamilton to get the title. Pretty hard but doable if Lewis gets a problem (or a multiple FIA's penalty...). Simulations with current season's results shows approx a 2% probability of that happening.

Verstappen is out of any reasonable scenario for title, according to his ORG. However, he has a chance to overtake Bottas. Again, simulations throw an approx probability of achieving this of 10%.

Nobody else can likely get one of the first three final positions in the championship. From 4th downwards there is a "fierce" battle between them but, frankly, who is going to bother to remember who ended 4th or 6th?

The matrix of probabilities to overcome another driver is this:
Code:
HAM   --   98  100  100
BOT    2   --   90  100
VER    0   10   --  100
 NOR    0    0    0   --
It is a pretty boring matrix, is not it? I put Norris just to visualize that the rest of the field has nothing to do against the first three.
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Old 8 Oct 2020, 07:33 (Ref:4009104)   #22
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On the other side, Constructors' Championship has a bit more interest because teams are actually concerned about their final positions because economical and prestige reasons.

So, I am including the matrix of probabilities of win against each other team.
Code:
mer   --  100  100  100  100  100  100  100
rbr    0   --  100  100  100  100  100  100
mcl    0    0   --   44   60   93   94  100
poi    0    0   56   --   64   94   96  100
ren    0    0   40   36   --   88   95  100
fer    0    0    7    6   12   --   76  100
tau    0    0    6    4    5   24   --  100
alf    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   --
I have not included Haas and Williams because they have so few points that is difficult to make any estimation with simulations. But one can imagine what positions they could get in the table...

Basically, the first two positions are done and the last three too (in any permutation between them). The real (and close) fight happens between the five middle class teams (Ferrari!!). In particular, McLaren, Pinky and Renault are completely undecided between them. Ferrari has chances but is and step behind, same with Alpha Tauri (Aldebaran?).
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