Motorsport and the Coronavirus

[delta]

Originally Posted by The Fat Clerk

Javelin are back on Wednesday with their usual Tin Tops, good news from them is they've now added another single seater day to their calender on Tuesday August 25th, along with Friday 25th of September which was already there.

Thanks. I will get booked in .

[Lancsbreaker]

Originally Posted by andy97

Gardening will never sound more interesting.

Agreed wholeheartedly


Anyway some socially distanced badinage with other drivers should be possible, and the "no spectators" rule doesn't prevent racers spectating when not actively involved, surely

[Moneyseeker]

Covid-19 - R rate rising in some regions and also in London (from 0.5 in April to .95 now) and is over 1 in the NW. Most regions from the map in todays press are just under 1.0 - some very close to it. Looks unlikely we will see crowds at anything this year at all IMO.

[The Fat Clerk]

Originally Posted by Moneyseeker

Covid-19 - R rate rising in some regions and also in London (from 0.5 in April to .95 now) and is over 1 in the NW. Most regions from the map in todays press are just under 1.0 - some very close to it. Looks unlikely we will see crowds at anything this year at all IMO.

Thanks to the moronic great British public.

[dwh43scale]

Originally Posted by The Fat Clerk

Thanks to the moronic great British public.

Working hand in hand with an inept government.

[andy97]

Originally Posted by Moneyseeker

Covid-19 - R rate rising in some regions and also in London (from 0.5 in April to .95 now) and is over 1 in the NW. Most regions from the map in todays press are just under 1.0 - some very close to it. Looks unlikely we will see crowds at anything this year at all IMO.

More importantly the recent relaxations may have to be reimposed.

[Robert Farrell]

28500 cases confirmed
40465 deaths
1557 new cases confirmed for 6 June.
I am at a loss to understand what has improved to the extent that we should all be happy to congregate in numbers anywhere.

[morninggents]

Seems to be something wrong there, Robert. If there have been 40,000 deaths surely there have been more than 28,500 cases confirmed? Should the cases be 285,000?


I agree your opinion that lockdown should not be relaxed yet.


As bad as the number of deaths in the UK is in relation to some other countries I seem to recall that the scientists were predicting at the start of the outbreak that there could be up to 500,000 deaths in the UK, though I have not been able to find the source of that prediction.

[Robert Farrell]

Apologies my mistake. Missed a "0"

[Mike Harte]

Originally Posted by morninggents

I agree your opinion that lockdown should not be relaxed yet.


As bad as the number of deaths in the UK is in relation to some other countries I seem to recall that the scientists were predicting at the start of the outbreak that there could be up to 500,000 deaths in the UK, though I have not been able to find the source of that prediction.

Peter, your memory isn't playing tricks on you; the half million figure was one plucked from thin air by, I believe, the statistician that had made a complete horlicks of the Foot and Mouth predictions, and wtho was recently kicked out of the SAGE committee that advises COBRA and the government.

However, the true figure of Corvid-19 deaths will never be truly known because the only accurate data is that recorded on deaths in hospitals. It is highly likely that the real number of deaths that can be attributed directly to the virus will remain a mystery due to the way that deaths are recorded in care homes and in patients' own homes, etc. But it will certainly mean that the total number of deaths will be far, far in excess of the 40 thousand figure.

[dwh43scale]

Originally Posted by Mike Harte

However, the true figure of Corvid-19 deaths will never be truly known because the only accurate data is that recorded on deaths in hospitals. It is highly likely that the real number of deaths that can be attributed directly to the virus will remain a mystery due to the way that deaths are recorded in care homes and in patients' own homes, etc. But it will certainly mean that the total number of deaths will be far, far in excess of the 40 thousand figure.

The best total number will be based on deaths above the seasonal norm across a number of years. The FT among others are estimating this at well above 40,000 - so far. It is both sad and embarrassing that a number of the decisions made by the UK government have been questionable in both timing and motive.

[bella]

Originally Posted by andy97

MSV have stated that they are assuming that overnight stays/ camping will be allowable from 4 July in accordance with the governments roadmap. Of course that may change if “R” rises above one.

Gardening will never sound more interesting.

this is handy because it’s a right royal pain in the arse parking up somewhere safe with decent cctv and facilities with a race truck, let alone car and trailer, particularly late on.

on that note if anyone knows a decent spot near oulton...

Originally Posted by dwh43scale

The best total number will be based on deaths above the seasonal norm across a number of years. The FT among others are estimating this at well above 40,000 - so far. It is both sad and embarrassing that a number of the decisions made by the UK government have been questionable in both timing and motive.

not wanting to defend the government, but just because the government says you *can* do something now doesn’t mean you *should*. all the muppets driving from god knows where to walk around narrow paths and have a butty in someone elses home town would do well to remember that.

[Peter Mallett]

Off topic comment alert I have to type this or my brain will explode! Not wishing to get into the debate but, oh well. I read recently that had we reported deaths using the same criteria that Spain used we would be showing approx 30% of what we are reporting. I haven't found anything to refute it, nor can I currently confirm it so it remains as a placeholder. Thanks for reading, you've been a wonderful audience. Don't forget to try the veal and tip your waitress. We now return you to the topic

It looks like things will come back even if in a limited fashion. Since I lost most of my pension and need to go back to work I can't even book a test day! But there are folks out there who rely on the sport not just for employment but for their well being too.

[midgetman]

Peter that figure is only important if we're keeping some knd of goulish league table of deaths. "Hey we're bad, but look at these guys."

According to the ONS, there are around 60,000 more deaths than we would expect for this time of year. That's to my mind is the important figure, because it shows the true picture of what the pandemic has cost us.

I was chatting to a customer recently who is in a business that normally knows what's right and what's wrong - military planning. Their forecasts matched the one above - if we hadn't locked down we were looking at 500k+ excess deaths for the period. Apparentkly their modelling also closely follows the actual number of deaths as well, so they're pretty confident that it is accurate.

I do wish they wouldn't necessarily focus on the deaths - yes we know it's s---out there, what I need to know now is what's happening. What are my chances of interacting with someone carrying the virus? What are my chances of developing it? What is the chance of being seriously ill?

The R number is pretty useless IMO. It relies too much on averages - after all I'm not likely to infect 0.9 people am I? I'll still infect whoever I sneeze over be that one person or one hundred people. I think it's being used to cover the fact they don't have a bloody clue how many cases there are/have been in the UK.

I'm getting back to work now. The last member of staff will be unfurloughed next week. Our big problem is that the tracks are restricting numbers so where I might have had six or eight customers for a weekend I've only got two or three for a single day. Busy enough I need us all working, not enough coming in to cover all the bills just yet. It's just like starting all over again.

[Peter Mallett]

Originally Posted by midgetman

Peter that figure is only important if we're keeping some knd of goulish league table of deaths. "Hey we're bad, but look at these guys."

Agreed but some ***** just keep on saying "it's the government" when as Bella says, it's us.

Originally Posted by midgetman

According to the ONS, there are around 60,000 more deaths than we would expect for this time of year. That's to my mind is the important figure, because it shows the true picture of what the pandemic has cost us.

And yet there have been weeks when we recorded less than usual. Which also makes me suspicious.

Originally Posted by midgetman

I'm getting back to work now. The last member of staff will be unfurloughed next week. Our big problem is that the tracks are restricting numbers so where I might have had six or eight customers for a weekend I've only got two or three for a single day. Busy enough I need us all working, not enough coming in to cover all the bills just yet. It's just like starting all over again.

Yes, this is part of my point above.

[Lancsbreaker]

Originally Posted by midgetman

I do wish they wouldn't necessarily focus on the deaths - yes we know it's s---out there, what I need to know now is what's happening. What are my chances of interacting with someone carrying the virus? What are my chances of developing it? What is the chance of being seriously ill?

The R number is pretty useless IMO. It relies too much on averages - after all I'm not likely to infect 0.9 people am I? I'll still infect whoever I sneeze over be that one person or one hundred people. I think it's being used to cover the fact they don't have a bloody clue how many cases there are/have been in the UK.

I share your scepticism about the R figure - I'm sure the concept is correct, but equally sure we have no real idea what the figure is, at least without a huge amount of hindsight. At least partly because so many people can have the infection without showing any symptoms, as well as because we have only tested a small percentage of the populus, it has to be a guess.



As to your questions - your chance of interacting with someone infected will vary depending on where in the country you are, but there was some suggestion in the last day or two that we are probably down to maybe 1 in a 1000 - so the chances are pretty low - and of course you need to be fairly close to someone for more than a minute or so to be in with a high chance - and if outdoors that chance is further reduced.... Chances of developing it seem wierdly to be diminished if you are a smoker......and chances of being seriously ill are pretty well correlated with your age. At 69 I'm almost in the high risk of serious illness group, but for anyone below the 35-40 range the chances of serious illness are very low, unless another underlying condition is present.


So I reckon its down to all of us to make our own judgements - taking account of course of how others around us are behaving, of course.


We have to find some way of getting the economic activity moving again, because without an economy, we can't have a health service.....

[midgetman]

No,no you've got that wrong..... we're all murderers for wanting to go to work, being cynically manipulated by Capitalist forces to do their business then be killed off....or so Twitter would have you believe. Oh unless you're protesting for a good cause of course.

I think the lockdown has done a good job and I think it was too late. Getting the country moving is going to be much harder. One thing I am sure of is that it does need to start moving again before mental health problems take over, never mind the financial risk. I know my octogenarian mother certainly sounded down when I spoke to her during total lockdown, and brightened up when we met outside for a socially distant shopping hand over. She's started going out in town and sounds so much better.

The parallels to "winning the war but losing the peace," are glaringly obvious.

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[Mike Harte]

Originally Posted by midgetman

I do wish they wouldn't necessarily focus on the deaths - yes we know it's s---out there, what I need to know now is what's happening. What are my chances of interacting with someone carrying the virus? What are my chances of developing it? What is the chance of being seriously ill?

From a purely selfish point-of-view, I really wish that the restrictions hadn't been started to be lifted. I am stuck in a major teaching hospital, and for the last 6 weeks my surgical team have been waiting until the hospital was free from all Corvid-19 cases so that it would be as safe as possible for them to undertake what might turn out to be a very major bowel operation.

At this time, they have fewer than 20 virus cases in the hospital, about ten in the ICU and the others in Corvid-19 wards, and so far there has been no cross contamination because they are following a very strict lockdown. This means that no patient can leave their ward - really hard on any smokers that are admitted cos they can't go outside to enjoy their cancer sticks - which in turn means no potential virus is passed on in the corridors, and in addition, they have created a large buffer zone between the Corvid-19 wards and the non virus wards.

So far, thank goodness, the trust is not going to allow visitors to be allowed entry, which is yet another stupid idea from No.10.

[morninggents]

Sorry to hear that, Mike. Hope all goes well for you when it eventually happens.

[Mike Harte]

Originally Posted by morninggents

Sorry to hear that, Mike. Hope all goes well for you when it eventually happens.

Thanks, Peter. I am in the rare position whereby I am actually "looking forward" to having major surgery - I'm really dreading it, if truth be known - because that means that, all being well and that I make a good recovery, I will be able to go home within a reasonably short time. And also be able to resume a fairly normal lifestyle, something that has not been possible for the last 18 months.

[Paul D]

I do agree that we need to get things moving again, one way or another. If we stay in lockdown much longer, then I think we risk approaching the situation of the 'cure' being worse than the 'disease'. I'm not belittling the impact of Covid there, but rather making the point that the lockdown is also doing untold damage to people, both mentally and financially and the long-term effects of that will only really be known a long way down the road. But I don't expect those effects to be insignificant...

'Personal responsibility' is a phrase that springs to mind here, but which, sadly, seems to be lacking in many these days. And it highlights another problem with an extended lockdown, because many will simply ignore it - we've already witnessed plenty of examples, with morons congregating together and not practicing social distancing - and this all started after a relatively short time in lockdown: as the weeks have gone on, it's just got progressively worse. So short of bringing in the military to properly enforce it, I'm struggling to see how they could keep a lockdown going once the morons decide the novelty's worn off now and they're going out to see their mates! Seriously, we all can't have failed to see plenty of examples - even just watching some of your own local neighbours will throw up plenty of examples of people just deciding that it's OK now to go back to normal because they're bored of lockdown.

So maybe the best idea is to allow a certain amount of activity, but attempt to control it effectively to limit the potential risks. But it really needs to be impressed upon the idiots that they need to behave responsibly, or potentially face an even stricter lockdown enforced by marshal law.

With all this in mind, I think a typical club race meeting could be run with relative safety, as long as strict rules are enforced and numbers allowed into the venue are properly controlled. Let's face it, compared to many public spaces where access is difficult to control, the average race circuit is already a fairly secure facility and with little effort, it should be a simple process to control who gets in. Controlling them once they're in is, of course, another matter... But it would be nice to think that most of us who go racing do not fall into the 'idiot' or 'moron' category.

Don't hold me to that last bit however...

[Peter Mallett]

Originally Posted by Paul D

I do agree that we need to get things moving again, one way or another. If we stay in lockdown much longer, then I think we risk approaching the situation of the 'cure' being worse than the 'disease'.

I suspect this was why the government was "late" with the lockdown.

Originally Posted by Paul D

'Personal responsibility' is a phrase that springs to mind here, but which, sadly, seems to be lacking in many these days. And it highlights another problem with an extended lockdown, because many will simply ignore it - we've already witnessed plenty of examples, with morons congregating together and not practicing social distancing - and this all started after a relatively short time in lockdown: as the weeks have gone on, it's just got progressively worse. .......................................

With all this in mind, I think a typical club race meeting could be run with relative safety, as long as strict rules are enforced and numbers allowed into the venue are properly controlled. Let's face it, compared to many public spaces where access is difficult to control, the average race circuit is already a fairly secure facility and with little effort, it should be a simple process to control who gets in. Controlling them once they're in is, of course, another matter... But it would be nice to think that most of us who go racing do not fall into the 'idiot' or 'moron' category.

Don't hold me to that last bit however...

Agreed.

[midgetman]

Don't we all sound like little Donald Trumps? Although I suppose at least we waited until the curve is on the down slope.

I've been to three kart test sessions now, another one tomorrow. TBH you'd hardly know that fear and death are stalking the land. Some tracks have compulsory masks, others make you wear gloves as well. Personally I think gloves are daft because they're not as easy to sanitise as skin. But apart from the lower numbers and reduced facilities there's very little to show there's a virus.

I've just had some instructions from the A&D track I work at, it's pretty strict so I think I'll not work for the first few events until it either calms down or we're locked down again.

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[VIVA GT]

To be fair, I think (hope) I'm taking a sensible approach to all of this and am trying to follow the guidelines as best as I can, but the 'gloves thing' really gets my goat (other four legged animals are available). The virus is not airborne, it does not enter your body through your skin, it can only enter your through your respiratory system (mouth or nose). If you are wearing gloves and touch a surface that has the virus on it, the virus will not enter your body unless you touch your face/eyes/mouth/nose with these gloves. If you are wearing gloves and you touch a surface that has the virus on it, you can then cross contaminate another surface by also touching that with your gloves. I have watched people confidently leave the supermarket safe in the knowledge that they are wearing gloves, unload their shopping into the car (after removing their car keys from their trouser pocket or handbag), take off their gloves (and either throw them onto the passenger seat or into one of their shopping bags), wheel the trolley back to the park, come back to the car and drive off!
Sorry, I seem to have gone off one one a bit there!

[Gerard C]

I tried several times to have a perfect and safe day. Just impossible. Every time, at one point I missed one or two things. I dont wear gloves anymore, I have an alcoholic solution ready at home, in my pocket and in my car, always wear a proper face mask when I go out but feel the slightest moment of distraction can take me out of the game.