Points towards WDC

[Schummy]

I have done a little "research" and I have found that in last 7 seasons first classified in WDC had an average of 6.8 points per race and second classified got 5.4 ppr (obviously using the CURRENT point sytem, not the old one that was used these years).

So one can get an approximation about who is doing well or bad about being this season's WDC looking who is getting more than 6 points per race and who is getting less than 6 ppr.

With current system point, finishing in a third position is a "neutral" perfomance for a title contender, less that that would mean a bad day and 1st and 2nd would mean a good score towards the title.

It's unnecessary to remark that all this is an approximate overview about how well each one is doing. There are exceptions were titles were got with less that 6 ppr, and some cases where titles were NOT got with more than 6 ppr. But it can be said that with >6 ppr you are very near the title and with <6 ppr is not easy to get it.

In this frame of things, main title contenders (in a wide meaning of the expression) have done after Malaysia these scores (points substracting 6 each race):

MS +4 +4 = +8
RB +2 -1 = +1
JPM -2 +2 = 0
FA 0 -4 = -4
RS -1 -6 = -7
DC -5 -3 = -8
KR -6 -6 = -12

That is, MS has 8 points of margin to get WDC, and Kimi has to catch a 12 points of deficit. The rationale of this is if Kimi can get back more than those 12 points he *probably* (obviously not surely) can mass enough points to be WDC, and so on with the rest of contenders.

A win suppose a +4 bonus, a zero points race means a -6 penalty, so obviously all is very open yet, but I think Kimi has a hard climb in front of him to get in shape for the totle race. About the rest of contenders, I think it is too early to judge.

Eighteen races is a very long season and we can be sure things will go upward and downward for each one of them in different occassions of the year.

PS: Yes, I have not include Baumgartner(?) as a title contender.

[climb]

The differences in points you outline are just the difference in ther normal standings, aren't they?

[Bononi]

Just another calculation to what it's obvious... TGF winning.

[Cougar]

Originally posted by climb
The differences in points you outline are just the difference in ther normal standings, aren't they?

What he is saying is that you need an avg. of 6 pts per GP to win the WDC. So the difference in pts he is showing is the difference from that avg.

I like stats More stats i say! Just dont ask me to work it all out