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Old 28 Aug 2020, 06:48 (Ref:3998442)   #16
Schummy
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Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!
After the Spanish GP and before Belgium's race, taking into account we expect to have 11 races to go.

Code:
          gap   ORG  Title
--------------------------
HAM  mer             86%  
VER  rbr  -37  11.2   7%  
BOT  mer  -43  13.0   5%  
LEC  fer  -87  26.2   0.4%
STR  mcl  -92  27.7   0.3%
ALB  rbr  -92  27.7   0.3%
--------------------------
After 6 races and with 11 races to go, LH has already approx 86% of chance to get the title. It speaks volumes about what great competition we have enjoying.

In order to maintain their slim probabilities, VER and BOT need to recover 2 points from HAM.

To improve and become somewhat like contenders, VER and BOT need to recover 6 and 12 points from Lewis.

If HAM wins and BOT gets 0 points, Valtteri will be practically out of the championship, with a probability for the title of approx 1%. It then would become a two horse "race" or rather a horse and a limping donkey race.
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Old 29 Aug 2020, 15:22 (Ref:3998731)   #17
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You have to say, looking at the stats, Hamilton has a very real shot at the title here.

And I mean that.
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Old 31 Aug 2020, 08:22 (Ref:3999163)   #18
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A shot with a bazooka, methinks

Update after the "surprising" GP Belgium (surprised for not having rain)

Code:
         gap   ORG  Prob  
HAM  mer[157]        92%  
VER  rbr  -47  14.9   4%  
BOT  mer  -50  15.8   4%  
ALB  rbr -109  34.5   0.1%
NOR  mcl -112  35.4   0.1 
LEC  fer -112  35.4   0.1%
STR  mcl -115  36.4   0.1%
I have included Albon et alter just for comedy purpose.

Ferrari's form is becoming to be tragic. Look at the position of the teams with Ferrari engines... I wonder if they have erroneously built a F2 engine. In particular, Ferrari team is looking very, very embarrassing. We all wonder what happened with last year's engine...

Poor Sainz... he is doing the infamous Alonso's path to hell. He is even driving for the same teams.
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Old 31 Aug 2020, 10:11 (Ref:3999180)   #19
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Ferrari's form is becoming to be tragic. Look at the position of the teams with Ferrari engines... I wonder if they have erroneously built a F2 engine. In particular, Ferrari team is looking very, very embarrassing. We all wonder what happened with last year's engine...
Embarrassing for Ferrari, yes. It really makes me wonder what they were doing with last year's engine to give it such a margin of superiority over this year's. I don't subscribe to the idea that Formula 1 "needs" Ferrari to be competitive though. They're just another team. We have Red Bull, Renault, McLaren and Racing Point to try to put some pressure on Mercedes.

Enzo must be turning in his grave. He famously believed that motor racing was all about the engine, and the chassis was just there to stop the engine scraping on the ground.
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Old 31 Aug 2020, 10:14 (Ref:3999182)   #20
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Poor Sainz... he is doing the infamous Alonso's path to hell. He is even driving for the same teams.
No doubt he's got his lawyers poring through the contract for an escape clause. And they will be telling him what a wonderful job they did of giving him a cast-iron contract.

I really do sympathise with Carlos, because I like him. However, even if he could get out of the Ferrari contract, there would be nowhere else to go.
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