The Historically Accurate EV discussion

[GORDON STREETER]

Surely someone will invent a "new" type of battery that will not be just an update on what is available at the moment.
Throughout history things have normally been attributed to the one person who is said to have invented it. People like Marconi and John Logie Baird are said to have been the inventors of the radio and TV, however there were lots of people working on the same thing at the same time. If someone was living on a remote island without any communication with the rest of the world it might be possible for them to come up with a totally different idea. Even when I was at primary school we used to make a potato battery ! Hmm a whole sack full of spuds might work as you can get 5volts out of one boiled potato

[Mike Bell]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Interesting paper. A conclusion that jumped out was:

'The Gas and Nuclear scenarios, by comparison with all the National Grid scenarios, are inexpensive, secure, require little new transmission or distribution grid expansion, and no development of augmented ancillary response services.' - or in other words, no need for doom and gloom, we just need to make sure research is focused on the right areas.

No no, let’s have doom and gloom- much more fun!

Gordon, from reading the specialist EV motoring press regularly I get the impression that an awful lot of money is being spent on alternative battery tech or alternative materials all around the world. It could still happen......

Or you can adopt the doom and gloom viewpoint.....

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by GORDON STREETER

Surely someone will invent a "new" type of battery that will not be just an update on what is available at the moment.
Throughout history things have normally been attributed to the one person who is said to have invented it. People like Marconi and John Logie Baird are said to have been the inventors of the radio and TV, however there were lots of people working on the same thing at the same time. If someone was living on a remote island without any communication with the rest of the world it might be possible for them to come up with a totally different idea. Even when I was at primary school we used to make a potato battery ! Hmm a whole sack full of spuds might work as you can get 5volts out of one boiled potato

Batteries have been around for a long time .
The energy storage capacity of most elements is already known , so unless someone discovers a vast amount of unobtainium , there is not going to be a big step forward in battery technology .
There will be slight improvements over time , Bosch are putting a huge amount of money into making a Li battery slightly lighter , but it will probably not be cheaper because of the cost involved & the fact that the materials are not plentiful .

But there will always be the " In the future we hope to be able to " , type claims .

[crmalcolm]

Stolen from elsewhere, but puts an interesting spin on the EV debate:

'Let’s imagine what it would be like if we all had electric cars now and some people were proposing a transition to petrol cars.

Import costs: If we switch to petrol instead of using electric cars we will need to import our petrol from other countries, how many billions of dollars will that cost us every year? And most of that money will go to middle eastern countries making them rich and us poor. Electricity is generated in the UK from renewables and gas and nuclear, no money leaving the country required.

Fuel security: Our economy and country will be dependent on regular supplies of fuel. If there was a war or other crisis, our country will grind to a stop in about 2–3 weeks.

Servicing: An electric car needs a small service every 100,000km, a petrol car needs 10 times as many services and every 100,000km needs a major service. Petrol vehicle service costs will be about 10–20 times as much as electric vehicles.

Fuel costs: A petrol car would cost about 4–10 times as much per km in fuel compared to an electric vehicle.

Infrastructure: To switch to petrol, we would need to build 1,000s of petrol stations all over the country, and these would all have to be staffed. You couldn’t get fuel if a petrol station was closed and you would need to plan your trip around petrol station opening times. We already have a national electricity grid with power and chargers available 24/7.

Safety: Carrying a highly volatile fuel in a vehicle will cause fires and death. For example, from 2003 to 2007 in the United States, there were 280,000 car fires per year, which caused 480 deaths. Fuel spills at petrol stations will also be a fire risk, with petrol stations catching alight and causing damaging explosions.

Fuel supplies: Fossil fuels have a limited supply and are also used for making many products such a plastic. Why burn it in cars when future generations will need it for products?

Irregular acceleration: A petrol engine only has a limited operational range of rotation, so an extra mechanical device called a gear box will be required and as the car accelerates it will need to change gears causing an irregular acceleration. It also can’t deliver power when it is stopped, so some device like a clutch is required to allow the engine to provide power to a stationary vehicle. All these extra components add manufacturing costs, maintenance and have a limited lifespan.

Toxic fumes: A petrol vehicle emits toxic fumes which will cause pollution problems especially in large cities. It is also a problem in any underground tunnels and parking stations where air ventilation will have to be added to expel the toxic fumes.

Longevity: A petrol vehicle typically only has a lifespan of 200,000 to 400,000kms before many of the complex components such as the engine, gear box and differential need replacing or servicing which is so expensive that typically the vehicle is scrapped. Electric vehicles last 2–5 times longer.

Efficiency: A petrol vehicle is extremely inefficient, only delivering about 25% of the energy of the petrol as movement, the other 75% is wasted as heat. Plus large amounts of energy is used to extract, refine and transport the petrol. Whereas an electric vehicle is about 70%-80% efficient.

Acceleration: Petrol vehicles will have slow acceleration compared to electric vehicles.'

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

But there will always be the " In the future we hope to be able to " , type claims .

Imagine a similar conversation was happening in 1959, after NACA Director Hugh Dryden published "A National Research Program for Space Technology", and the debate was about sending humans into space and eventually to the moon.

Would you have had the same response to Wernher von Braun and Robert Goddard if they had said 'In the future, those chaps who used to work in the United States Naval Research Laboratory are hoping to be able to propel a human to the moon with a rocket. We don't have the technology yet, but we are developing it'?

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Stolen from elsewhere, but puts an interesting spin on the EV debate:

'Let’s imagine what it would be like if we all had electric cars now and some people were proposing a transition to petrol cars.

Import costs: If we switch to petrol instead of using electric cars we will need to import our petrol from other countries, how many billions of dollars will that cost us every year? And most of that money will go to middle eastern countries making them rich and us poor. Electricity is generated in the UK from renewables and gas and nuclear, no money leaving the country required.

Fuel security: Our economy and country will be dependent on regular supplies of fuel. If there was a war or other crisis, our country will grind to a stop in about 2–3 weeks.

Servicing: An electric car needs a small service every 100,000km, a petrol car needs 10 times as many services and every 100,000km needs a major service. Petrol vehicle service costs will be about 10–20 times as much as electric vehicles.

Fuel costs: A petrol car would cost about 4–10 times as much per km in fuel compared to an electric vehicle.

Infrastructure: To switch to petrol, we would need to build 1,000s of petrol stations all over the country, and these would all have to be staffed. You couldn’t get fuel if a petrol station was closed and you would need to plan your trip around petrol station opening times. We already have a national electricity grid with power and chargers available 24/7.

Safety: Carrying a highly volatile fuel in a vehicle will cause fires and death. For example, from 2003 to 2007 in the United States, there were 280,000 car fires per year, which caused 480 deaths. Fuel spills at petrol stations will also be a fire risk, with petrol stations catching alight and causing damaging explosions.

Fuel supplies: Fossil fuels have a limited supply and are also used for making many products such a plastic. Why burn it in cars when future generations will need it for products?

Irregular acceleration: A petrol engine only has a limited operational range of rotation, so an extra mechanical device called a gear box will be required and as the car accelerates it will need to change gears causing an irregular acceleration. It also can’t deliver power when it is stopped, so some device like a clutch is required to allow the engine to provide power to a stationary vehicle. All these extra components add manufacturing costs, maintenance and have a limited lifespan.

Toxic fumes: A petrol vehicle emits toxic fumes which will cause pollution problems especially in large cities. It is also a problem in any underground tunnels and parking stations where air ventilation will have to be added to expel the toxic fumes.

Longevity: A petrol vehicle typically only has a lifespan of 200,000 to 400,000kms before many of the complex components such as the engine, gear box and differential need replacing or servicing which is so expensive that typically the vehicle is scrapped. Electric vehicles last 2–5 times longer.

Efficiency: A petrol vehicle is extremely inefficient, only delivering about 25% of the energy of the petrol as movement, the other 75% is wasted as heat. Plus large amounts of energy is used to extract, refine and transport the petrol. Whereas an electric vehicle is about 70%-80% efficient.

Acceleration: Petrol vehicles will have slow acceleration compared to electric vehicles.'

As you say , that is certainly a lot of SPIN .

Last night our power stations were at full capacity , we were having to import the maximum possible via the interconnectors , & the pumped storage was also being used to keep the grid from shutting down .
There was no spare capacity for charging EVs , but I guess the "Smart Meters " would have shut them down to save blackouts .

So that was money going abroad for electric .

As for renewables ,[ wind & solar ], they are very expensive compared to conventional generation & it is almost impossible to run the grid on them . There must be a large amount of conventional generators to keep the frequency stable .

If people want an EV , that is up to them . But the cost of buying , insuring & the depreciation does not make them cheap , just the opposite .
And the fact that , without massive spending on generation , a lot of them will not get charged up very often .

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

As you say , that is certainly a lot of SPIN .

Last night our power stations were at full capacity , we were having to import the maximum possible via the interconnectors , & the pumped storage was also being used to keep the grid from shutting down .
There was no spare capacity for charging EVs , but I guess the "Smart Meters " would have shut them down to save blackouts .

So that was money going abroad for electric .

As for renewables ,[ wind & solar ], they are very expensive compared to conventional generation & it is almost impossible to run the grid on them . There must be a large amount of conventional generators to keep the frequency stable .

If people want an EV , that is up to them . But the cost of buying , insuring & the depreciation does not make them cheap , just the opposite .
And the fact that , without massive spending on generation , a lot of them will not get charged up very often .

So what you're saying is that the current system coped with the current demand because it was designed and developed to match.
If we still had the same grid that was in use in 1980, would it have coped?

As you say, their needs to be investment in the grid/generation.
If we still had the same network of fuelling points that existed when there were less than a million cars on UK roads, would it cope today?

The energy distribution system for petrol/diesel has had a lot of money invested because of demand.
The same will inevitably happen as we transition away from petrol/diesel. And the big oil companies will probably be the ones that do it.

[Mike Bell]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

As for renewables ,[ wind & solar ], they are very expensive compared to conventional generation & it is almost impossible to run the grid on them . There must be a large amount of conventional generators to keep the frequency stable .

If people want an EV , that is up to them . But the cost of buying , insuring & the depreciation does not make them cheap , just the opposite .
And the fact that , without massive spending on generation , a lot of them will not get charged up very often .

Goodness, you really are committed to your cause! And I don’t agree with your take on EV running costs.

Interesting joint venture between JLR and the NAIC- Project Vector.... https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/n...project-vector

[Gerard C]

I find the experience related by Rudolf quite interesting, recycling a conventional car and an EV to build a new vehicle. This is recycling! We had a guy here who transformed a Panda 4x4 in an acceptable hybrid. Was may be twenty years ago. Worked fine but little success. Too soon?

[Woolley]

I had a pushed ad on Facebook yesterday telling me how much I could save per week by switching to the advertised EV. Something in the range of £45 per week.

Trouble is the base model of the car it was advertising was £50k. Excellent, I can make my money back in only 21 years...

More realistically, a Nissan Leaf is only twice as much as my wife's Hybrid, so I can probably bring that down to about 14 years, or slightly longer than the batteries are predicted to last.

A lot has to be done before even the above average man in the street can manage the switch. For the rest, you're effectively saying at the moment that you'll need a fairly decent income if you want to travel anywhere.

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by Mike Bell

Goodness, you really are committed to your cause! And I don’t agree with your take on EV running costs.

Interesting joint venture between JLR and the NAIC- Project Vector.... https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/n...project-vector

Well ,unlike some , I don,t have a cause , but I do disagree when the media & other propaganda outlets push out rubbish & sometimes outright lies .
I know they say that Tesla,s hold good second hand values .And it is possible that some other EVs now don,t lose as much money as they used to .
But looking in Glasses Guide & Kellys in America , the depreciation has been horrendous for a lot of them .

[Mike Bell]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

Well ,unlike some , I don,t have a cause , but I do disagree when the media & other propaganda outlets push out rubbish & sometimes outright lies .
I know they say that Tesla,s hold good second hand values .And it is possible that some other EVs now don,t lose as much money as they used to .
But looking in Glasses Guide & Kellys in America , the depreciation has been horrendous for a lot of them .

Don’t have a cause. Really?

Media are always ‘pushing out rubbish and sometimes outright lies’ to suit whatever agenda they are following at that moment.

Market a crap or ridiculously expensive car, and most will have a crap residual value. Doesn’t matter what powers them. As a quick example, there’s one PHEV and no EV in this top ten list....... https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/best-c...ing-money-pits

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

looking in Glasses Guide & Kellys in America , the depreciation has been horrendous for a lot of cars, EV and non-EV alike.

FTFY

[Gerard C]

Some well known french crap in Mike's interesting link!
Thats what happens when a model fills many websites about reliability. Well done. I dunno what's wrong with the Tipo SW but at this price I would go anytime with a manuel gearbox. Mind you those are future classics…

[grantp]

The JLR Vector project fits well with some of the ideas I have been suggesting for a while.

Had Manganese Bronze considered my suggestion way back on the 00s they might still be an independent company, perhaps partnered with JLR (just down the road) on the Vector project.

The Vector concept lends itself, at least in theory, to flexible rent on demand fleets for fully autonomous roads where performance requirements are for efficiency (for the fleet operators) and the requirement for acceleration has long since been consigned to an historic aberration.

Handling won't matter. Vehicles can be designed and tuned to deal with potholes to save pointless road maintenance for what are likely to be quite heavy vehicles.

Make them self cleaning and self fumigating and JLR could be on to a good concept.

[GORDON STREETER]

I have a female friend that came round the other day in a Mitsubishi Outlander hybrid 4x4 and I said "I bet you never plug it in" she said that she does all the time, so some do

[Gerard C]

Indeed. Glad for her to hear that…

[Mike Bell]

Originally Posted by GORDON STREETER

I have a female friend that came round the other day in a Mitsubishi Outlander hybrid 4x4 and I said "I bet you never plug it in" she said that she does all the time, so some do

Yes, there is one down the road here that usually has a cable dangling. Privately owned. Company car users who chose one purely to save personal tax liability, and who likely get fuel paid for, are suggested to be less interested in having a home charger........

[crmalcolm]

A potential development of EV motor technology has been revealed by a desing firm in Norfolk (home of Lotus, not US Navy).

'Designed in collaboration with 3D printing specialist Hieta, the so-called Ampere motor will weigh less than 10kg but provide a peak output of 295bhp. For reference, the Jaguar I-Pace’s two electric motors weigh around 40kg each and produce 197bhp. '

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

A potential development of EV motor technology has been revealed by a desing firm in Norfolk (home of Lotus, not US Navy).

'Designed in collaboration with 3D printing specialist Hieta, the so-called Ampere motor will weigh less than 10kg but provide a peak output of 295bhp. For reference, the Jaguar I-Pace’s two electric motors weigh around 40kg each and produce 197bhp. '

That will be great for British industry if & when it becomes available on the world market .

I can remember nearly 50 years ago working on a computerised automated distribution system which had a 160 HP electric motor as its main power unit .
It was about 5 ft diameter , weighed about quarter of a ton & had a 3 inch mainshaft .

But this new motor will still only give the same range from the same amount of energy , & with the Jag I Pace mentioned will only reduce the overall weight by about 3%.
So not a big step forward unless it can be made for a very reasonable price .

[Mike Bell]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

That will be great for British industry if & when it becomes available on the world market .

I can remember nearly 50 years ago working on a computerised automated distribution system which had a 160 HP electric motor as its main power unit .
It was about 5 ft diameter , weighed about quarter of a ton & had a 3 inch mainshaft .

But this new motor will still only give the same range from the same amount of energy , & with the Jag I Pace mentioned will only reduce the overall weight by about 3%.
So not a big step forward unless it can be made for a very reasonable price .

OK, we get your drift....

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by Mike Bell

OK, we get your drift....

Yes , I know I should not bring actual facts into it when EV owners are dreaming of magic & wonderful things for the future .

[Mike Bell]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

Yes , I know I should not bring actual facts into it when EV owners are dreaming of magic & wonderful things for the future .

You’re entitled to your opinions, of course, but I find them all too negative for my taste!

I’ll stick to dreaming of magical and wonderful things. Some will happen....

[S griffin]

I am enjoying this debate, of course there will always be cynicism when it comes to things like this!

I am sure it will be a while before EV takes over the car world, for now there is still a place for other technology like diesel and biofuels and I really doubt that we have enough technology atm to make the EV the norm

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by S griffin

I am enjoying this debate, of course there will always be cynicism when it comes to things like this!

I am sure it will be a while before EV takes over the car world, for now there is still a place for other technology like diesel and biofuels and I really doubt that we have enough technology atm to make the EV the norm

Well , here is something to think about .
Government study of levels of air pollution , updated a couple of weeks ago .
Shows emissions have fallen by 75% since 1970 .
https://www.gov.uk/government/public...o-2018-summary

And another one covering a lot of other countries .
https://notrickszone.com/2020/03/03/...-better-shape/

So , despite all of the claims otherwise , emissions from motor vehicles have fallen dramatically .
Why do they want us to pay much more money to cure a problem that hardly exists , unless it is just an excuse for more taxation .