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View Poll Results: Who will win overall?
Toyota #7 1 14.29%
Toyota #8 6 85.71%
Rebellion #1 0 0%
Ginetta #5 0 0%
Ginetta #6 0 0%
An LMP2 0 0%
Voters: 7. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 7 Oct 2019, 18:39 (Ref:3932541)   #31
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We've tried not jumping to conclusions for 2 years now. It's now a conclusion. We keep seeing "Maybe the privateers will do well!" followed by "I expected more from the privateers!"

After 2 years of that most people have given up. And we have race threads that have 3 posts about the race.

I think for most it's just come back for next year and see what we have. And that's fine. Maybe 2020 will bring us WEC that's fun and Blancpain with green flags.
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Old 7 Oct 2019, 19:04 (Ref:3932544)   #32
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I think people just need to look back at the R8 days and early R10 era where Audi (much like Toyota now) were the only major fully OEM backed organization taking on privateer teams with a very small fraction of their budget and R&D capabilities. And we also have to accept that at least 9 times out of 10 that in such a situation that the factory team will destroy the competition. And the bigger the stage, the bigger the gap.
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Old 7 Oct 2019, 20:32 (Ref:3932550)   #33
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helgi should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridhelgi should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridhelgi should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridhelgi should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
There used to be 5/6 different chassis and engines both in LMP1 and LMP2 when R8 was on a march. Non "balanced", with some upgrades sometimes. There used to be something to talk about in terms of tech even if "show" was bad. And why to look for a "show" in endurance racing? Drivers are not clowns to put any type of a show. What a "show" did they have in the early days of "Golden Era"? Just a Porsche Cup. And still there were topics to talk for more than 3 pages a week, I suppose.
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Old 7 Oct 2019, 20:54 (Ref:3932553)   #34
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And I also think that it's fair to remind readers that if you think that GTE in the WEC and GTLM in IMSA is bad for having "only" three manufacturers involved, just look at the pre-2006 days of the ALMS and LMS. Until Ferrari came out with the 430 GT2 (ie not a half baked car), GT2 was basically a spec Porsche series virtually.
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Old 7 Oct 2019, 22:26 (Ref:3932558)   #35
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We've tried not jumping to conclusions for 2 years now. It's now a conclusion. We keep seeing "Maybe the privateers will do well!" followed by "I expected more from the privateers!"

After 2 years of that most people have given up. And we have race threads that have 3 posts about the race.

I think for most it's just come back for next year and see what we have. And that's fine. Maybe 2020 will bring us WEC that's fun and Blancpain with green flags.
They didn't have this success penalty system in place for 2 years, actually. And you can see that it really did affect the #7. On top of that, this was only the first race with the penalties applied aside the weight gain from the offseason starting EOT for Toyota.

Ginetta set a faster lap time than the 7 car and was less than 3 tenths behind the 8 car in ultimate time. So imo, the pace is there, they just need to execute. Starting from the pitlane, losing your brakes and tires, having your electronics cut out numerous times over the weekend... those things aren't going to win you a race no matter how fast you are. And in Rebellion's case, choosing the wrong tire can cut your pace by over a second per lap.
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Old 7 Oct 2019, 23:22 (Ref:3932564)   #36
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Problem is that being equally fast on one lap pace is different than matching that over a stint. We saw that with DP vs LMP2 in IMSA in 2014-15 and DPI vs LMP2 in 2017-18. Yes, the Rebellion split the Toyotas for a few laps at the start of the race, but the Toyotas after that being basically uncontested 1-2 for the rest of the race further hammers home the point.

Again, go back to the Audi era with the R8 and early R10 days. Privateers could go fast over one lap, but once the race started, the Audis came to the fore due to various advantage of being a factory team vs privateer teams.

The WEC's model for LMP1 was built around factory teams racing each other, but when you have just one OEM team vs privateers, that shows that the model is flawed without an apples to apples competition.
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Old 8 Oct 2019, 00:33 (Ref:3932571)   #37
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The TS050 is an absurdly good and rather new factory car because of the ridiculous lengths the competition went to in 2014-2017, and the privateers are not even particularly good for privateers, there's not much that can be done about it besides reset things with new rules. Too bad they aren't even going to bother with that and just BoP trashcan it.

By comparison the R8 was a kind of mediocre old factory car by the tail end of its lifespan and there was some very good privateer cars. Look at the difference in effort in adapting a standard Courage/ORECA between the Pescarolo C60 and the Rebellion R13, or even the other way between how half assed the R8's later update kits for regulation changes were compared to what Toyota did when hybrid aero was cut back.

I've said before I don't even think the R8 chassis was that good to start with, it was just the only car around designed for the 2000 ACO regulations and had the only purpose built LMP engine on the grid. When you got something like a Lola AER or Reynard Zytek that had been completely designed for those rules too they were also very good. The TS040 started with a chassis good enough to offset its carry over engine in 2014 and the TS050 today is miles upon miles better than that.
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Old 8 Oct 2019, 06:26 (Ref:3932606)   #38
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They didn't have this success penalty system in place for 2 years, actually. And you can see that it really did affect the #7. On top of that, this was only the first race with the penalties applied aside the weight gain from the offseason starting EOT for Toyota.

Ginetta set a faster lap time than the 7 car and was less than 3 tenths behind the 8 car in ultimate time. So imo, the pace is there, they just need to execute. Starting from the pitlane, losing your brakes and tires, having your electronics cut out numerous times over the weekend... those things aren't going to win you a race no matter how fast you are. And in Rebellion's case, choosing the wrong tire can cut your pace by over a second per lap.
We've been through this discussion so many times that I'm about as bored of typing it as everyone else will be as reading it.

We've been saying the same thing for 2 years now. Throwing some weight in a Toyota doesn't mean anything. The single lap pace is absolutely worthless as a means of measuring hybrid v ICE because they achieve the lap times in completely different ways. See IMSA balancing LMP2 and DP. LMP2 lap times were the same, but they lost in traffic. Same with P1H v P1P. The Toyota can lap the same as a Rebellion in a single lap, then be 3 seconds quicker through traffic.

To be completely blunt - the Toyota overtook a Rebellion at Silverstone at a place on the track that only a hybrid can do that. The Rebellion couldn't even pull those moves on GTE cars, nevermind LMP1s. You cannot balance wildly different technology. And even if they do manage to balance it, they're removing the balance for Le Mans.

It appears as though the only people still clinging onto hope and "not jumping to conclusions" are Toyota fans. It's not jumping to conclusions - it's being realistic about the events we're getting. WEC is in a poor state and this season, like last, isn't really worth watching.
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Old 8 Oct 2019, 08:46 (Ref:3932641)   #39
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I think that argument is outright ridiculous to bring up when a slower Rebellion held up a Toyota for ages in the last race. They just do not have the consistency even in clean air.
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Old 8 Oct 2019, 09:35 (Ref:3932652)   #40
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I think that argument is outright ridiculous to bring up when a slower Rebellion held up a Toyota for ages in the last race. They just do not have the consistency even in clean air.
They donít have the consistency. I never said they did. But the Toyota pulls moves that no other car can do. And thatís before we talk about the electric start in the pit lane, no starter motor, being immune to the wheels turning on the jacks, etc.

Thereís lots of reasons. Weíve typed them out so many times. Itís boring. But we shouldnít jump to conclusions...
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Old 8 Oct 2019, 18:04 (Ref:3932758)   #41
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Rennen should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridRennen should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridRennen should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridRennen should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
For those interested in why the Jota #38 LMP2 driven ny Gonzalez, Da Costa & Davidson was Excluded from the race after they finished 2nd in Fuji.

In post race scrutineering it was found that a badly soldered wire had detached itself from it's circuit board rendering the Marshalls Neutral Button inoperative! This was a standard Oreca part and not the fault of the drivers or the team for that matter and would have had no idea the wire had detached itself, not that it was even needed during the race (when it may well have functioned if required) The team didn't appeal the decision as it meant that their car would have missed the freighting to China for the next round! This should have been just a fine, Not Total Exclusion, far too harsh a penalty for what is just a car produced for amateur drivers to go racing in!
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Old 9 Oct 2019, 20:21 (Ref:3932984)   #42
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They don’t have the consistency. I never said they did. But the Toyota pulls moves that no other car can do. And that’s before we talk about the electric start in the pit lane, no starter motor, being immune to the wheels turning on the jacks, etc.

There’s lots of reasons. We’ve typed them out so many times. It’s boring. But we shouldn’t jump to conclusions...
Yeah, we should just assume Toyota will win every race even though they weigh 100+kg more than the others. You make it seem like they only win because of their hybrid, which will be restricted further at China. They don't execute at anything else? The privateers don't falter at all?

Rebellion was 2 second slower than last year with more knowledge of the car and NO success penalties. Why? Partially because they expected colder weather and chose a softer compound of tire. Unlike some, I'm not pessimistic on the other teams' chances for the rest of the season. I can look at the races and see where things went wrong for teams. Silverstone was where Toyota was easily favored imo. Fuji a little bit less so, but it's a track where they've won all but one race entered, I think that one was a given. China sees both Toyota's slowed by at least another second per lap on paper.

If Ginetta gets on top of it's issues and Rebellion can stay consistent (use the right compound), then there's a race to be had. Not a Toyota walkover. I don't want to see that, even if Toyota is my favorite team.

The penalty and exclusion situation bothers me too. A standard part like that failing shouldn't mean the result is thrown out. Rules are rules, but sometimes they need to be looked over and rewritten for situations like this.
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Old 10 Oct 2019, 06:45 (Ref:3933055)   #43
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Yeah, we should just assume Toyota will win every race even though they weigh 100+kg more than the others. You make it seem like they only win because of their hybrid, which will be restricted further at China. They don't execute at anything else? The privateers don't falter at all?
They win because they built the best car, with the best technology, have the most resources, the best team, and are immune from half of the pit stop regulations.

You say Rebellion were slower because they expected colder temps etc, etc. You're right. And why are Rebellion worse than Toyota? Because they don't have the resources to pull things off like Toyota do. They'll make more intelligence and race craft mistakes than Toyota, Porsche, Peugeot and Audi do/did. The manufacturers throw money and resources at this, whilst privateers can't.

You're right. Privateers aren't executing as well. But expecting Rebellion, who can't afford to run a second car, to execute as well as, quite literally, the largest car company in the world, is an *insane* thing to expect.

We've tried not jumping to conclusions for 2 years now. Adding weight doesn't offset engineering resources, hybrid boost and pit stop regulations. Toyota might "only" be 1-2 seconds quicker a lap, but the quality difference required to do achieve that is insane. Toyota are THAT good.
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Old 10 Oct 2019, 14:28 (Ref:3933135)   #44
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And that's been the biggest problem with road racing when there's factory teams involved vs privateers. Same thing with F1, NASCAR or Indy Car with the big money teams vs the small fry. The bigger teams just have more resources to drain blood from a stone as far as performance.

And it's not like in day's past like say 20-25 years ago or even (if one counts Pescarolo in LMP1) 10-15 years ago. Too many good ideas have been done to death and rules have become more restrictive on what the sanctioning bodies will at least willingly allow vs what they won't.

In short, it's an apples to oranges comparison, and always has been. At least now it's fair to say that Toyota probably feel the same way that Audi did when they built the R8. They built it to take on factory competition. When the factories defected to other series, it didn't stop Audi from running the R8, but a big part of the reason it was designed was made moot. Same with Toyota since 2017 basically after Porsche announced their pull out of the WEC.
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Old 11 Oct 2019, 00:10 (Ref:3933201)   #45
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They win because they built the best car, with the best technology, have the most resources, the best team, and are immune from half of the pit stop regulations.

You say Rebellion were slower because they expected colder temps etc, etc. You're right. And why are Rebellion worse than Toyota? Because they don't have the resources to pull things off like Toyota do. They'll make more intelligence and race craft mistakes than Toyota, Porsche, Peugeot and Audi do/did. The manufacturers throw money and resources at this, whilst privateers can't.

You're right. Privateers aren't executing as well. But expecting Rebellion, who can't afford to run a second car, to execute as well as, quite literally, the largest car company in the world, is an *insane* thing to expect.

We've tried not jumping to conclusions for 2 years now. Adding weight doesn't offset engineering resources, hybrid boost and pit stop regulations. Toyota might "only" be 1-2 seconds quicker a lap, but the quality difference required to do achieve that is insane. Toyota are THAT good.
It wasn't like they made huge mistakes. They chose the wrong tire compound and that made most of the difference, at least from what they said. You go and look at the timing results from the race and look at the last hour or two when the light rain came and went, then the temps dropped. The Rebellion's times were equal to the Toyota's. Mostly 1:28's with a few laps a second higher and lower. Seems the soft tires worked better then. They held off the #7 Toyota for a while in the beginning too.

I wonder if they ever got those different Michelin's for designed for their non-hybrid cars?
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