Teammates comparison 2022

[Schummy]

Well... it is about... comparison of teammates...

         BA SA AU ER MI SP MO AZ   GRID RACE  TOTAL
VER-PER  10 01 10 11 11 11 00 01 =  5-3  5-3  10- 6  55%   Equality
LEC-SAI  11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 =  8-0  6-2  14- 2  99.6% Utterly busted!
HAM-RUS  11 00 10 00 10 00 00 00 =  3-5  1-7   4-12  92%   Almost busted

In each race there are two numbers, the first number is qualifying position, the second is race classification (including DNF positions). An "1" means the first driver was better, "0" means the opposite.

So, "10" in Emilia Romagna for Red Bull means Verstappen was better in qualy (I DON'T BOTHER with mini race's positions grid!) while Perez was better classified in the (proper) race.

GRID: scores in qualy
RACE: scores in races
TOTAL: sum of the two

Percentage: In an approx statistical alaguage, probability (or degree of certainty) that the driver ahead is really ahead (and not just by random chance). I add a descriptive text to help to interpret thos probabilities:

-- Utterly busted: the driver behind performed worse with virtually total certainty (no bad luck excuses!).

-- Busted: the driver behind performed worse almost surely.
-- Almost busted: the driver behind is nearly being busted.
-- Advantage: the driver ahead probably is performing better but not yet without a "reasonable doubt".
-- Equality: the minor differences can be easily due to random events.

I get the info in a slightly convoluted way in FORIX (convoluted because I try to save time and effort) so I hope there are not errors but... I would be happy if someone see any anomaly and tell it here. I love true data and hate false data (well, "hate" is a bit exaggerated word here).

In a future I could increase the number of teams to compare. But I am notoriously unreliable in my schedule, so who knows?

[Born Racer]

Thanks so much, Schummy. I would love to spot anomalies, as you say, but I'm in no position to present you with anything other than false data. Surprised to see Verstappen and Pérez on equality. My initial reaction would've been that Verstappen would be clearly shading him, albeit not busting him like I guess he did eventually last season.

I guess Ricciardo is totally busted.

[davec]

I always like looking at these so thanks for doing it again.

I guess for me the question is do we have enough data to make a meaningful statistical analysis yet. For Max and Checo they are on "equality" currently but IF Max had lasted 1 lap more in Bahrain and Checo 1 lap less they would be 11-5 rather than 10-6 which is quite a swing statistically.

[Schummy]

Oh, 11-5 and 10-6 are statistically very similar. Imagine throwing 16 times a coin, and repeating the experiment several times. Just by chance you would get a lot more variability than that,however the coin is exactly the same in all those experiments.

Sorry if I extend my babbling a bit more but I think it is an interesting point. (^_^)'

We, humans (and perhaps some users who are AIs in disguise :-p ), tends to be biased to perceive patterns where there is not more than randomness. Luckily. cold math calculations can save us of this king of bias of our mind.

So, 4-12 for Hamilton is rare to be observed by chance if LH and GR were equal. It could still happen, so Hammy is "Almost busted". However, Sainz's 2-14 is almost impossible to be gotten between two equal teammates just by chance. Thus, he is "Utterly busted": he is surely performing worse than Leclerc and not by bad luck alone.

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by Born Racer

Thanks so much, Schummy. I would love to spot anomalies, as you say, but I'm in no position to present you with anything other than false data. Surprised to see Verstappen and Pérez on equality. My initial reaction would've been that Verstappen would be clearly shading him, albeit not busting him like I guess he did eventually last season.

I guess Ricciardo is totally busted.

Thanks a lot!

Yeah, perhaps the two surprises of the season are HAM-RUS and VER-PER. Very interesting couple of teams. It is also interesting to see the faces of Wolf and Horner in certain moments when they are caught off-guard by camera :-D . The current narrative is not what they expected/wished, although Horner position is more pleasant!

One of my next team to watch is McLaren! However, I am afraid data are going to bring bad news for "Ricky".

[Schummy]

After Canada:

         BA SA AU ER MI SP MO AZ CA   GRID RACE  TOTAL
VER-PER  10 01 10 11 11 11 00 01 11 =  6-3  6-3  12- 6  76%    Advantage 
LEC-SAI  11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 00 =  8-1  6-3  14- 4  97%    Busted!
HAM-RUS  11 00 10 00 10 00 00 00 11 =  4-5  2-7   6-12  76%(*) Advantage 
NOR-RIC  10 11 11 11 10 01 11 10 00 =  7-2  5-4  12- 6  76%(*) Advantage

(*)RUS has a higher strength (82%) in races, NOR has a higher strength (82%) in qualy.

"Surprisingly", Ricky is not doing so badly. LOL, he is like Hamilton vs Russell!! Maybe Toto will begin to search for a replacement for 2023? (My personal candidate would be Schiff.)

Now, Red Bull, Mercedes and McLaren are in the same state (12-6). In every case, the stronger driver needs at least three GPs to bust his teammate, so, they are safe in the short term.

[Schummy]

Updating just before La France!

         BA SA AU ER MI SP MO AZ CA GB AT   GRID RACE  TOTAL
VER-PER  10 01 10 11 11 11 00 01 11 10 11 =  8-3  7-4  15- 7  87%    Advantage 
LEC-SAI  11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 00 00 11 =  9-2  7-4  16- 6  95%    Busted!
HAM-RUS  11 00 10 00 10 00 00 00 11 11 01 =  5-6  4-7   9-13  48%    Equality 
NOR-RIC  10 11 11 11 10 01 11 10 00 11 11 =  9-2  7-4  16- 6  95%    Busted!

In the last two GPs...
-- Verstappen went on edging Perez
-- Sainz somewhat continues braking a bit his fall.
-- Lewis continues his clear counterattack and just reached the "Equality" label.
-- Lando continues acting as his uncle Chuck, crushing poor Ricky. Now Ricciardo is as busted as Sainz... and it is not a good thing.

If Max won 2-0 Sergio in the next two races (Qualy and Race), he will have "busted" him.

I have the idea to incorporate Renault... sorry, I mean Alpine, and Haas (aka Ogregüntherhaus, ok he is not from GER/AUT but still... ).

[Schummy]

Update after France.

         BA SA AU ER MI SP MO AZ CA GB AT FR   GRID RACE  TOTAL
VER-PER  10 01 10 11 11 11 00 01 11 10 11 11 =  9-3  8-4  17- 7  94%    Almost busted 
LEC-SAI  11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 00 00 11 10 = 10-2  7-5  17- 7  94%(*) Almost busted(*)
HAM-RUS  11 00 10 00 10 00 00 00 11 11 01 11 =  6-6  5-7  11-13  16%    Equality 
NOR-RIC  10 11 11 11 10 01 11 10 00 11 11 11 = 10-2  8-4  18- 6  98%    Busted!

• Now Perez is "almost busted" (what Marko thinks about this?).
• Although Carlos escaped of the jaws of Busting, he is still busted in Qualy (10-2, 96%). However, lately he is getting better results/luck... and Charles is helping him too...
• Finally, Lewis is practically tied with Russell. The differences between them are, at the moment, as due to random events.
• After three 2-0 weekends, Ricciardo is not only Busted but walking into Utterly Busted. That is worse that being fired by the team! Ricciardo told me it.

Although there appear to be "trends" in several drivers, a first analysis shows there is nothing different of what can happened by pure randomness. I.e., those "streaks" are like the spurious "streaks" one can see throwing dice or coins, due purely to chance with a real meaning behind.

[Schummy]

A complementary couple of graphics.

The first one is the evolution of (the first three) team scores in the first 12 races (until France). I have considered normal races, not sprint races and I have graph'ed a smoothing moving average showing the long term performance rather than the particular points in each race. That way it is easier to see trends.

• Red Bull has been the best team all this time.
• Mercedes has overtaken Ferrari by mean of reliability/consistency (and probably also strategy).
• Ferrari was very near of Red Bull about 6th-8th races.

The second one is the same evo but for (the first six) drivers. It is easy to follow the trends in each team and overall.

• Lewis is now the second best in terms of scoring points.
• Leclerc has not been first or second for most of time.
• The gap VER-PER has been widening rather quickly in the last races.
• Sainz was much worse than Leclerc at the beginning but since 6th race they have scored similarly.
• Hamilton started scoring clearly worse than Russell but from 8th race on he has outperform Russell. Russell himself has been the most consistent driver/car in the field, only deflating a little bit recently, partly due to Lewis being over him.

It's important to take in account that all those calculations are done smoothing the particular results in each race to extract the theoretical performance in each time.

[Schummy]

Update after Hungary.

.
         BA SA AU ER MI SP MO AZ CA GB AT FR HU   GRID RACE  TOTAL
VER-PER  10 01 10 11 11 11 00 01 11 10 11 11 11 = 10-3  9-4  19- 7  97%    Busted!
LEC-SAI  11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 00 00 11 10 00 = 10-3  7-6  17- 9  83%    Advantage
HAM-RUS  11 00 10 00 10 00 00 00 11 11 01 11 01 =  6-7  6-7  12-14  15%    Equality 
NOR-RIC  10 11 11 11 10 01 11 10 00 11 11 11 11 = 11-2  9-4  20- 6  99.1%  Utterly busted!!
.

• Ricciardo now "Utterly Busted", the lowest status any living being can be in. I think the team should allow one of the mechanics to drive the next GP ta have more chances. (Is it necessary to say I am joking?)
• Finally, Sergio got "Busted". I say "finally" because many people expected Max to have him beaten earlier. But Sergio is not slouch at all.
• Sainz has recovered from a "Busted" status... or may we should say Charlie is busting himself in races, with the help of Ferrari's "strategist".
• Wolff-Mercedes team continues in a balanced state.

[Akrapovic]

Charles hasn't beaten Sainz since Miami. The form has flipped around.

[S griffin]

Sainz has been the stronger driver of late, however Charles is probably still quicker on raw speed. But both are being held back by Ferrari not doing great of late

[Schummy]

I think FIA should mandate Ferrari's strategist go to Red Bull, Merc's go to Ferrari and RedBull's to Merc.

We would have an excellent end of the season.

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by Schummy

I think FIA should mandate Ferrari's strategist go to Red Bull, Merc's go to Ferrari and RedBull's to Merc.

We would have an excellent end of the season.

A mandatory moving around of strategists every 4-5 races would be good!

[BertMk2]

Originally Posted by S griffin

Sainz has been the stronger driver of late, however Charles is probably still quicker on raw speed. But both are being held back by Ferrari not doing great of late

There was an interesting comment (can't remember where I read it ) that said Sainz is acting like the more complete driver at Ferrari - he's the one questioning strategy calls from the cockpit and trying to guide the team. I'd be inclined to agree with that at the moment.