[Driver] Team mates comparison 2010

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by Ultimo

Schummy, how do you come up with the confidence rating?

It has been assumed each 0 or 1 is a Bernouilli variable and that the set of 9 digits for each team is a Binomial. In case the two drivers are equal, p = 0.5, and so the "null hipoth" would be B(9,0.5).

The "confidence" is the reverse of the p-value from that Binomial (bilaterally), so the more confidence, the less "statistical significance". It is just an artifact for easiness in interpretation (instead of putting significance levels).

The assumption about the Binomial suppose each digit (qualifying, fastest lap, race result) is independent of the others. It really is not so, but last time I checked it, their correlations were relatively low. Doing it without the binomial is more cumbersome but more exact. If I ever have the time maybe I'll try to do it.

[Hubble]

Originally Posted by Schummy

It has been assumed each 0 or 1 is a Bernouilli variable and that the set of 9 digits for each team is a Binomial. In case the two drivers are equal, p = 0.5, and so the "null hipoth" would be B(9,0.5).

The "confidence" is the reverse of the p-value from that Binomial (bilaterally), so the more confidence, the less "statistical significance". It is just an artifact for easiness in interpretation (instead of putting significance levels).

The assumption about the Binomial suppose each digit (qualifying, fastest lap, race result) is independent of the others. It really is not so, but last time I checked it, their correlations were relatively low. Doing it without the binomial is more cumbersome but more exact. If I ever have the time maybe I'll try to do it.

Yeah, that's what I thought......

[Speedworx]

What about the rest of the teams? Seems a bit pointless to only do a few of them.

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by Hubble

Yeah, that's what I thought......

Sorry if it sounded a bit "idiotic"

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by Speedworx

What about the rest of the teams? Seems a bit pointless to only do a few of them.

The point is not wasting my time in less relevant team pairings . Anyway I am pretty sure I will include all of them eventually, i just need a few boring afternoons.

I don't know if there is here someone interested in them, I hope so.

1.Renault: I assume Kubica is better anyway (but I respect Petrov)
2.Sauber: It really matters?
3. Lotus: It makes my cry to see those two fine drivers (and the sacred brand) in that lowly car...
4. Virgin: It's designed by Wirth and "managed" by Branson. Enough said.
5. HRT: The new Forti. With that reliability, it's difficult to measure drivers. Anyway Chandhok looks promising.

[Speedworx]

Its the new team comparisons I'm most interested in.

[tblincoe]

Originally Posted by Speedworx

Its the new team comparisons I'm most interested in.

Maybe this line plot from Malaysia will help with that:

Notables:

* As we are now 3 races into the 2010 Formula 1 season, the final line plot is intended to monitor the progress of the new teams in F1 by comparing them to the lowest-finishing ‘established’ driver/entry. In Malaysia, that dubious honor went to Rubens Barrichello in the Williams Cosworth.
* The plot reveals that the new teams still have some way to go before they can nip at the heals of the established F1 teams. It’s important to note that while Barrichello finished the race a lap down, he was still significantly quicker and more consistent than any of the driver/entries from Lotus, HRT, or Virgin.

[Schummy]

Update after China.

TEAM    BAH AUS MAL CHI   TOT Lead  Conf.
=========================================
VET-WEB 101 100 001 111 = 7-5 (VET) 23%
ALO-MAS 011 100 110 111 = 8-4 (ALO) 61%
HAM-BUT 111 010 011 010 = 7-5 (HAM) 23% 
SCH-ROS 010 000 000 000 = 1-11 ROS  99.4% <--Busted!
SUT-LIU 110 100 111 111 = 9-3 (SUT) 85%
BAR-HUL 111 111 000 101 = 8-4 (BAR) 61%
BUE-ALG 100 100 110 000 = 4-8 (ALG) 61%
=========================================

The question about who is doing better, Michael or Nico is now irrelevant . If Ross can make a better car for my namesake it is a hypothetical future. Let's wait (not holding breath).

Nothing dramatic in the rest of teams, except perhaps Sutil nearing a decision with Liuzzi. Clear advantages, but non significant yet, for Alonso, Barry and Algernoon

[ECW Dan Selby]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Liuzzi replaced with di Resta, resulting in alternating drivers.

Selby

[Schummy]

Well, you know, update after Spain.

TEAM    BAH AUS MAL CHI SPA    TOT  Lead  Conf.
===============================================
VET-WEB 101 100 001 111 000 =  7- 8 (WEB)  0%
ALO-MAS 011 100 110 111 111 = 11- 4 (ALO) 88%   <--Warning
HAM-BUT 111 010 011 010 110 =  9- 6 (HAM) 61% 
SCH-ROS 010 000 000 000 101 =  3-12  ROS  96.5% <--Busted!
SUT-LIU 110 100 111 111 111 = 12- 3  SUT  96.5% <--Busted!
BAR-HUL 111 111 000 101 011 = 10- 5 (BAR) 70%   <--Promising
BUE-ALG 100 100 110 000 100 =  5-10 (ALG) 70%   <--Promising
===============================================

(Mildly) remarkable facts:
-Webber wins Vettel 3-0 and now is infinitesimally ahead.
-Massa loses 0-3 to Alonso for 2nd time in a row. Now he is near of being "busted".
-Sutil hammers another 3-0 to Liuzzi, who is now "officially" busted.
-Barrichello and Algersuari step by step are in the way to "bust" their team mates (if they happen to allow it...).
-Hamilton has a slight advantage over Button, but not significant by now.
-And, of course, MS famously beats for the first time his poor team mate.

[Schummy]

Update after MonteCarlo.

TEAM    BAH AUS MAL CHI SPA MON    TOT  Lead  Conf.
===============================================
VET-WEB 101 100 001 111 000 010 =  8-10 (WEB) 19%
ALO-MAS 011 100 110 111 111 000 = 11- 7 (ALO) 52%   
HAM-BUT 111 010 011 010 110 111 = 12- 6 (HAM) 76%   <--Promising!
SCH-ROS 010 000 000 000 101 011 =  5-13 (ROS) 90%   <--Warning!
SUT-LIU 110 100 111 111 111 011 = 14- 4  SUT  96.9% <--Busted!
BAR-HUL 111 111 000 101 011 111 = 13- 5 (BAR) 90%   <--Warning!
BUE-ALG 100 100 110 000 100 101 =  7-11 (ALG) 52%   
===============================================

• Webber advances a bit, but they are essentially equal.
• The disgraced weekend for FA produces a recovery for Felipe. But Massa had his share of bad luck before as well.
• Jenson was unfortunate in the race, but he looked beaten today anyway. Now Hammy is in a promising situation to try a "Busting".
• Schumacher "new life" has brought him back from his "busted" position to a milder "warned".
• Nothing new in India camp, Liuzzi goes on "busted".
• Hulk was today in a (literally) dark tunnel and he is now officially warned.
• Buemi has amended things a bit beating "Algernoon" in the race, but he is still below, although not conclusively.

[Schummy]

Sadly (or not), after the no-appeal from Mercedes, race result for MS in Monaco must be amended. Now it's 0 instead of 1 (i.e. race point for Rosberg, not for Schuey)

TEAM    BAH AUS MAL CHI SPA MON    TOT  Lead  Conf.
===============================================
VET-WEB 101 100 001 111 000 010 =  8-10 (WEB) 19%
ALO-MAS 011 100 110 111 111 000 = 11- 7 (ALO) 52%   
HAM-BUT 111 010 011 010 110 111 = 12- 6 (HAM) 76%   <--Promising!
SCH-ROS 010 000 000 000 101 010 =  4-14  ROS  96.9% <--Busted!
SUT-LIU 110 100 111 111 111 011 = 14- 4  SUT  96.9% <--Busted!
BAR-HUL 111 111 000 101 011 111 = 13- 5 (BAR) 90%   <--Warning!
BUE-ALG 100 100 110 000 100 101 =  7-11 (ALG) 52%   
===============================================

[Schummy]

Update after Turkey.

TEAM    BAH AUS MAL CHI SPA MON TUR    TOT  Lead  Conf.
=======================================================
VET-WEB 101 100 001 111 000 010 000 =  8-13 (WEB) 62%
ALO-MAS 011 100 110 111 111 000 000 = 11-10 (ALO)  0%   
HAM-BUT 111 010 011 010 110 111 101 = 14- 7 (HAM) 81%   <--Promising!
SCH-ROS 010 000 000 000 101 010 111 =  7-14 (ROS) 81%   <--Promising!
SUT-LIU 110 100 111 111 111 011 111 = 17- 4  SUT  99.3% <--Busted!
BAR-HUL 111 111 000 101 011 111 101 = 15- 6 (BAR) 92%   <--Warning!
BUE-ALG 100 100 110 000 100 101 100 =  8-13 (ALG) 62%   
=======================================================

As season advances, percentages of confidence tend to go higher. Actually Sutil has "busted" Liuzzi and Barry is near of doing the same to Hulk.

Schumacher has recovered [wink] from a busted position to a less severe degree, but the advantage still goes on for Nico. Hamilton is in the right way to dominate Button, but Jenson doesn't want to give way

Interestingly Alonso has lost his preeminence after two unfortunate GPs. Forecasting future intra-team troubles?

[Ultimo]

Thanks for these Schummy, always loved reading them last year,

Much appreciated!

[Schummy]

Thanks, you are kind!

[Schummy]

Update after Canada.

TEAM    BAH AUS MAL CHI SPA MON TUR CAN    TOT  Lead  Conf.
===========================================================
VET-WEB 101 100 001 111 000 010 000 101 = 10-14 (WEB) 46%
ALO-MAS 011 100 110 111 111 000 000 111 = 14-10 (ALO) 46%   
HAM-BUT 111 010 011 010 110 111 101 111 = 17- 7  HAM  93.6% <--Busted!
SCH-ROS 010 000 000 000 101 010 111 000 =  7-17  ROS  93.6% <--Busted!
SUT-LIU 110 100 111 111 111 011 111 000 = 17- 7  SUT  93.6% <--Busted!
BAR-HUL 111 111 000 101 011 111 101 100 = 16- 8 (BAR) 85%   <--Promising!
BUE-ALG 100 100 110 000 100 101 100 111 = 11-13 (ALG) 16%   
===========================================================

Hamilton finally busted Button. Even if Jenson is doing a good championship, Lewis is surpassing him most of time.

In Mercedes home, normal service resumed and Nico again is "busting" Michael v2.0. Sutil continues doing the same to Vitantonio even if the later did a 3-0 in Montreal.

The rest is fairly balanced still, except Barrichello is threatening Hulkenberg. An interesting point is Ferrari. After two bad weekends (MON-TUR), Alonso is not with a clear advantage over Massa.

[shiny side up!]

Thanks for the update Schummy, I always look forward to it after each race!

[peterelise]

Hey Schummy, thanks for doing these after each round.

If the points awarded are for qualy, fastest lap, and who finished ahead, I think Webber gets the points over Vettel for qualy in Canada doesn't he?

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by peterelise

Hey Schummy, thanks for doing these after each round.

If the points awarded are for qualy, fastest lap, and who finished ahead, I think Webber gets the points over Vettel for qualy in Canada doesn't he?

I think you are right. Webber has a modified grid position because of his gearbox thing, but the meaning of the comparisons is about who was faster (with a legal car).

Thank you to everyone who informes about inaccuracies, so, with so many eyes, we can construct a better table.

The amended results are:

TEAM    BAH AUS MAL CHI SPA MON TUR CAN    TOT  Lead  Conf.
===========================================================
VET-WEB 101 100 001 111 000 010 000 001 =  9-15 (WEB) 69%
ALO-MAS 011 100 110 111 111 000 000 111 = 14-10 (ALO) 46%   
HAM-BUT 111 010 011 010 110 111 101 111 = 17- 7  HAM  93.6% <--Busted!
SCH-ROS 010 000 000 000 101 010 111 000 =  7-17  ROS  93.6% <--Busted!
SUT-LIU 110 100 111 111 111 011 111 000 = 17- 7  SUT  93.6% <--Busted!
BAR-HUL 111 111 000 101 011 111 101 100 = 16- 8 (BAR) 85%   <--Promising!
BUE-ALG 100 100 110 000 100 101 100 111 = 11-13 (ALG) 16%   
===========================================================

[Ralf's Girl]

Interesting stuff as always, Schummy. Any chance of seeing what the stats look like for the rest of the field? I know the new teams are incredibly slow, but it means that team-mates are the only point of comparison, so it'd be interesting to see how those guys are doing.

[Marbot]

Originally Posted by Schummy

Alonso is not with a clear advantage over Massa.

Lies, damn lies and Statistics.

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by Marbot

Lies, damn lies and Statistics.

Poor Massa got his moments of glory (vs Alonso) in Monaco and Turkey.

I think I'll give a look at the lesser teams sooner or later, as Ralf's Girl suggest.

[Schummy]

Update after Europe.

TEAM    BAH AUS MAL CHI SPA MON TUR CAN EUR    TOT  Lead  Conf.
===============================================================
VET-WEB 101 100 001 111 000 010 000 001 111 = 12-15 (WEB) 30%
ALO-MAS 011 100 110 111 111 000 000 111 111 = 17-10 (ALO) 75%   
HAM-BUT 111 010 011 010 110 111 101 111 101 = 19- 8  HAM  94.8% <--Almost busted!
SCH-ROS 010 000 000 000 101 010 111 000 010 =  8-19  ROS  94.8% <--Almost busted!
SUT-LIU 110 100 111 111 111 011 111 000 111 = 20- 7  SUT  98.1% <--Busted!
BAR-HUL 111 111 000 101 011 111 101 100 011 = 18- 9 (BAR) 88%   <--Promising!
BUE-ALG 100 100 110 000 100 101 100 111 111 = 14-13 (ALG)  0%   
===============================================================

(Hulkenberg and Barrichello had the same grid time, so it could have been a 111 for Barry instead of 011, but the official grid positions were that way).

Some details:

Hamilton has already almost busted Button. It is interesting that even if JB is very well placed in WDC, he is "busted" in terms of pace (lap times) and Lewis beats him 6-3 in races. Regularity is being the key to Jenson's quest against Hamilton, and probably his only bet.

Rosberg comes back to (almost) busting his heptachamp team mate, after two bad GPs for the later. The only save for MS was he mounting soft tires at the end (and doing a rapid fast race lap). Were Spain and Turkey just a flare?

Sutil-Liuzzi is the most clear cut team mate comparison so far (among those 7 teams), Valencia was another 3-0 for Sutil.

Barry continues his steady siege of Hulk but he is not busting him (still).

The most "interesting" feature is Buemi has finally equalized Algernoon (sic) for the first time in the season, after two bad weekends for the Spaniard. In the first GPs it seemed that Buemi could be busted by his team mate.

[JeremySmith]

TGF is complete rubbish, he will never do anything.........

[Schummy]

Did he deserve that Jordan seat in F1? Probably he has now 7 WDC titles because Mercedes payed his career . It's similar to Nelsinho in Renault, except that Michael has some more GP wins.

Wait, I need to take that pink pill again.