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Old 27 Mar 2012, 21:44 (Ref:3049686)   #1
Schummy
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Team Mates Comparison 2012

Yes, this weirdness is here again.
Code:
==========================
        AUS MAL = TOT
==========================
HAM-BUT 100 111 = 4-2  31%
VET-WEB 011 000 = 2-4  31%
SCH-ROS 100 111 = 4-2  31%
ALO-MAS 111 111 = 6-0  97% ALMOST BUSTED!
RAI-GRO 011 011 = 4-2  31%
PER-KOB 000 111 = 3-3   0%
==========================
I will explain this table for those new to this stat. In each GP three numbers mean the comparison between the team mates in a... err.. team. The first one is Qualy result, second is fastest race lap and the third is race classification. A 1 means the first driver (in the left column) was better, a 0 means the second one was better. Example: RAI-GRO 011 011 means Grosjean was better that Raikkonen in Qualy in the two GPs, and Kimi was better in fastest lap and final classification.

Eventually I will do the others teams. Well at least the most interesting of them, I am not very thrilled with HRC or Marussia, though

LOL, Alonso has almost busted already his poor team mate. Felipe is not enjoing any great time lately, I am afraid he must get better because the current gap is simply too big to be bearable by Ferrari in the mid term. I wish the best for Felipe.

The rest is of course inconclusive with just two GPs. It is needed a lot more races to throw "conclusions".

Anyway... Some interesting pre-patterns are happening. Schu (finally!) > Rosberg, Webber > Vettel. Even Ham > But is slighty surprising if we remember the things some people said about Lewis's form one week ago

Obviously let's wait more GPs to track this kind of stats.

Last edited by Schummy; 27 Mar 2012 at 21:50.
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Old 27 Mar 2012, 22:50 (Ref:3049731)   #2
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I am not very thrilled with HRC or Marussia, though
I'm sure that the Honda Racing Corporation is doing just fine.

Massa almost busted. Now there's a shock!
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Old 28 Mar 2012, 00:30 (Ref:3049786)   #3
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shiny side up! should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
I Schummy!
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Old 28 Mar 2012, 01:48 (Ref:3049799)   #4
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Nice stuff !
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Old 28 Mar 2012, 02:58 (Ref:3049813)   #5
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Ah schummy, I missed you!
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Old 28 Mar 2012, 08:01 (Ref:3049886)   #6
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I always enjoy this exercise although not sure we ever saw the final showings for 2011. However the weighting bothers me a little since we are giving equal status to qually, FL and a win when surely the only one that really matters is the latter? I'm sure that Hamilton, for example, who is currently ahead of Button in the above would have preferred Jensen's win in Australia than two third places. Do two third places really making him 32% ahead of his team mate who has had a victory? I do realise that this is specifically between team mates and also sorry if this has all been raised before. Blame it on my senility!
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Old 28 Mar 2012, 11:27 (Ref:3049971)   #7
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For sure that point has been raised in the past and will be in the future...

It's a very valid point. The alternative is to use a particular weighting scheme, that in turn will be subjected to debate. Anyway, in my computer, I like to consider weights for it, for example, 3 for race, 2 for qual and 1 for fastest lap. But it changes with FIA's rules, for instance nowadays fastest laps are less meaningful that it used to be.

At the end of the day, I put every data in the table and everyone can do his/her own mix to arrive to conclusions. I have several seasons with this stats and I still I am not decided about how to proceed in the best way to describe the relative merits of team mates From time to time I do a statistical check about the correlations between those three sessions, to look if I can drop any one of them.

Maybe the presentation of this table can evolve in the next editions of this table...

Finally, and not "leastly", thanks to anyone who like to follow this stat!
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Old 28 Mar 2012, 11:50 (Ref:3049977)   #8
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John, I have just updated the table for the last GP of 2011 season.
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Old 28 Mar 2012, 18:07 (Ref:3050145)   #9
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F1Pete should be qualifying in the top 10 on the gridF1Pete should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
Since Grosjean was further up the grid in qualifying in the last race, this stat does not take into account Kimi's actual lap time but the 5 grid penalty? Just askin..
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Old 28 Mar 2012, 18:20 (Ref:3050150)   #10
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I was intended to count the time itself, not the penalty, so I got it wrong with Kimi.

I'll amend it. Thanks for noting it!
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Old 28 Mar 2012, 18:22 (Ref:3050151)   #11
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Table amended, fixing Raikkonen-Grosjean in Malaysia's qualy.
Code:
==========================
        AUS MAL = TOT
==========================
HAM-BUT 100 111 = 4-2  31%
VET-WEB 011 000 = 2-4  31%
SCH-ROS 100 111 = 4-2  31%
ALO-MAS 111 111 = 6-0  97% ALMOST BUSTED!
RAI-GRO 011 111 = 5-1  78% Advantage?
PER-KOB 000 111 = 3-3   0%
==========================
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Old 29 Mar 2012, 09:42 (Ref:3050336)   #12
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Originally Posted by Schummy View Post
It's a very valid point. The alternative is to use a particular weighting scheme, that in turn will be subjected to debate. Anyway, in my computer, I like to consider weights for it, for example, 3 for race, 2 for qual and 1 for fastest lap. But it changes with FIA's rules, for instance nowadays fastest laps are less meaningful that it used to be.
Thanks for eloquent response. I quite like the 3-2-1 suggestion. You are right about fastest laps and equally qualifying doesn't carry quite the importance of recent years since we now get a bit more overtaking and alternative race strategies.

Many thanks for updating the 2011 tables, schummy.
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Old 29 Mar 2012, 12:58 (Ref:3050413)   #13
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ALO-MAS 111 111 = 6-0 97% ALMOST BUSTED! <---- I'd say thats GAME... SET... and match?
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Old 29 Mar 2012, 16:12 (Ref:3050486)   #14
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fourWheelDrift should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridfourWheelDrift should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridfourWheelDrift should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridfourWheelDrift should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
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ALO-MAS 111 111 = 6-0 97% ALMOST BUSTED! <---- I'd say thats GAME... SET... and match?
Not quite, I'm sure Schummy will correct me if I am wrong but as I understand it you should be looking at the 97%, it means that if the two drivers were actually equally there would still be a 3% chance of seeing this result that's why the verdict is still almost busted. To qualify for busted this probability would have to be lower still.

Of course the analysis technique does not take into account the size of the gap between the two in each event only who is ahead but it is a statistically rigorous method which allows you to come to a conclusion, say how confident you are that the conclusion is accurate and provide a rigorous analysis to back it up. Keep up the good work Schummy!
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Old 30 Mar 2012, 02:23 (Ref:3050690)   #15
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stripedcat should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridstripedcat should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
Great stuff Schummy. Always good to know the comparisons. Lets see how it develops. Especially Schumi and Rosberg. Although that is covered in a different thread.
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Old 30 Mar 2012, 21:31 (Ref:3051029)   #16
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speaking of weighting im curious about the value from the quali session. im assuming the winner is the person with the better grid spot but is there a difference if you used who got the faster time in Q2 instead?
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Old 31 Mar 2012, 01:16 (Ref:3051086)   #17
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Using Q2 is an idea, but currently as far as I remember I have used final grid positions (except penalties) this and other seasons. The rationale is drivers maximize their efforts to get the best grid position available, i.e. it's possible some top drivers don't run at 100% in Q2. The other side is strategies play a role in Q3. So... nothing is perfect, lol :-)
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Old 1 May 2012, 17:05 (Ref:3067946)   #18
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Big update after China and Bahrain:
Code:
====================================================
        AUS MAL CHI BAH = TOT  lead  prb%
====================================================
HAM-BUT 100 111 000 111 = 7-5  (HAM) 23%   Equality
VET-WEB 011 000 000 111 = 5-7  (WEB) 23%   Equality
SCH-ROS 100 111 000 000 = 4-8  (ROS) 61%   Advantage
ALO-MAS 111 111 111 101 =11-1   ALO  99.4% BUSTED!
RAI-GRO 011 111 100 001 = 7-5  (RAI) 23%   Equality
PER-KOB 000 111 000 101 = 5-7  (KOB) 23%   Equality
====================================================
  • Massa is already busted by Alonso, as expected.
  • Rosberg has completely beaten Michael in the last 2 GPs, now he is on a firm lead.
  • The rest of teams (here) are in a state of equality, with spurious advantages.
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Old 25 Sep 2012, 01:38 (Ref:3141185)   #19
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I cannot believe I have not updated since Bahrain!

Code:
==================================================================================
        AUS MAL CHI BAH SPA MON CAN EUR GBR GER HUN BEL ITA SIN =  TOT  lead  prb%
==================================================================================
HAM-BUT 100 111 000 111 -01 111 111 110 101 000 111 000 111 100 = 25-16 (HAM)  79%   Advantage
VET-WEB 011 000 000 111 111 000 111 100 010 111 111 001 110 111 = 25-17 (VET)  72%   Advantage         
SCH-ROS 100 111 000 000 000 110 000 001 111 111 000 101 101 100 = 18-24 (ROS)  56%   Advantage
ALO-MAS 111 111 111 101 111 111 101 111 101 111 111 100 011 111 = 36- 6  ALO  100%   BUSTED!
RAI-GRO 011 111 100 001 001 011 010 011 111 111 011 111 --- 011 = 26-13 (RAI)  94.7% Almost Busted
PER-KOB 000 111 000 101 100 -11 011 011 100 000 111 000 011 101 = 20-21 (KOB)   0%   Equality
==================================================================================

Main novelty is that Raikkonen has almost busted Grosjean (Monza is not counted).
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Old 25 Sep 2012, 14:41 (Ref:3141467)   #20
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I cannot believe I have not updated since Bahrain!
What were the chances of that, statistically speaking?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Schummy View Post
Main novelty is that Raikkonen has almost busted Grosjean (Monza is not counted).
Raikkonen seems to be doing a better job than other top drivers/teams in a car that seems no better than some midfield cars. Quite amazing!
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Old 11 Oct 2012, 07:19 (Ref:3149774)   #21
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Not terribly original: update after Japan
Code:

======================================================================================
        AUS MAL CHI BAH SPA MON CAN EUR GBR GER HUN BEL ITA SIN JAP =  TOT  lead  prb%
======================================================================================
HAM-BUT 100 111 000 111 -01 111 111 110 101 000 111 000 111 100 000 = 25-19 (HAM)  55%   Advantage
VET-WEB 011 000 000 111 111 000 111 100 010 111 111 001 110 111 111 = 28-17 (VET)  86%   Advantage         
SCH-ROS 100 111 000 000 000 110 000 001 111 111 000 101 101 100 111 = 21-24 (ROS)  23%   Similar
ALO-MAS 111 111 111 101 111 111 101 111 101 111 111 100 011 111 100 = 37- 8  ALO  100%   BUSTED!
RAI-GRO 011 111 100 001 001 011 010 011 111 111 011 111 --- 011 011 = 28-14  RAI   95.6% Almost Busted
PER-KOB 000 111 000 101 100 -11 011 011 100 000 111 000 011 101 000 = 20-24 (KOB)  35%   Similar
======================================================================================
Could be interesting to do separate stats about Qualify and Races. "Could be interesting" means perhaps I will do later (or not ).
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Old 13 Oct 2012, 00:10 (Ref:3150644)   #22
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shiny side up! should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
I love it, Schummy!
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Old 13 Oct 2012, 00:36 (Ref:3150663)   #23
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speaking of weighting im curious about the value from the quali session. im assuming the winner is the person with the better grid spot but is there a difference if you used who got the faster time in Q2 instead?
Pitpass has a Supergrid, that works for me.

http://www.pitpass.com/src/seasons/2.../supergrid.php

Everything else is subject to so many variables, pit stops, finger trouble, first lap incidents, random penalties, that imo the actual quali time before the officials apply penalties is the only true measure of what goes on!

Even then ...
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Old 13 Oct 2012, 00:46 (Ref:3150669)   #24
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Even then ...
.....qualifying can also be subject to its own variables.

And you've got Grosjean in 6th place?!!!!

Last edited by Marbot; 13 Oct 2012 at 00:59.
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Old 13 Oct 2012, 01:08 (Ref:3150679)   #25
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.....qualifying can also be subject to its own variables.

And you've got Grosjean in 6th place?!!!!
And Mercs not bothering to set Q3 times and... and ...

Yup all difficult and subject to errors!
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