[Driver] The GOAT - Round One - Hamilton vs Cevert

[crmalcolm]

The thirty-first match-up in Round One sees Hamilton vs Cevert.

So who do you vote for as the greater driver?

Lewis Hamilton
Hamilton is among the best in every meaningful area of driver assessment. He is among the best of his era in wheel-to-wheel combat, he is an exceptional qualifier, a consistent and intelligent race driver, and to top it off, one of the all-time best wet-weather drivers.

Hamilton’s performances have been incredibly strong and consistent across his career. Even in his weakest seasons (2008 and 2011), he is statistically a top 4 driver. This is notably different from contemporary Sebastian Vettel, who took several seasons to approach his peak level, and has been rated outside the top 5 three times since 2010. At their respective peaks, the statistics see Hamilton and Vettel as comparable, but Hamilton has been a far more relentless performer over time.

In an absolute sense, Hamilton’s brilliant 2018 season (aged 33) is currently rated his best to date. But if we adjust each season performance for age and experience (i.e., determining the predicted equivalent performance if the driver had been at both peak age and experience), Hamilton’s 2007 debut season rates as his most impressive, narrowly ahead of his 2018 performance. Beating a reigning world champion as a rookie remains an absolutely extraordinary feat. The second highest rated rookie season is James Hunt’s exceptional 1973 season, where he finished 8th in the championship despite starting only half of the races.

In wet weather, it has become almost a given that Hamilton in recent times will win the race. While his percentage win rate in wet starts of 43% is lower than Alberto Ascari’s 67% (from 6 races), Ayrton Senna’s 64% (from 22 races), and Juan Manuel Fangio’s 50% (from 8 races), his winning streak in wet races from 2014-2019 was by far the longest in F1 history.

Hamilton’s team switch from McLaren to Mercedes must be considered one of the best-timed and most shrewd moves in F1 history, enabling him to spend all of his F1 career in one of the top 3 cars on the grid, and several seasons in a dominant car. This combination of car and driver has propelled Hamilton to the top of the sporting record books. Records that seemed virtually untouchable at the time they were laid down are now falling consistently.

François Cevert
François Cevert spent his career racing alongside one of the all-time greats, Jackie Stewart. Cevert was nurtured and coached by Stewart as his protégé and heir apparent at the Tyrrell team. Unfortunately, Cevert died in a horrifying crash in qualifying for what would have been Stewart’s final grand prix, meaning he never took the leading driver role.

Overall, Cevert was dominated by Stewart, trailing him 6-24 in counting races, 5-37 in qualifying, and 83-190 in points. The qualifying gap between the pair was substantial but decreased over time, as shown below.

The conclusion of many is that Cevert would have likely won several races for Tyrrell, but probably would not have ever won a drivers’ title.

[FIRE]

Hamilton

[Aysedasi]

For sure....

[grantp]

But can Lewis fly his own plane and play Concert standard classical piano?


And, iirc, set fastest lap at Le Mans (or was it pole time?) at night?

[Aysedasi]

Almost certainly not.....but........

[Born Racer]

Hamilton has never even beaten Stewart, so Cevert.

No, Hamilton.

Plus, Cevert was rubbish at supporting BLM.