|
||||||||||
|
||||||||||
21 Apr 2008, 16:07 (Ref:2183049) | #1 | ||
Subscriber
Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 3,259
|
Probability of Win 2008
Three weeks without GPs (even if we have MM's videos to pass the time) is a bit too much. So I have rescued a kind of stat I did last season; it is about calculation of probability based on results in these three GPs and last season's results.
In the next table the last column is the estimated "probability of win". Below that appears probability of win for teams. Code:
....D07 T07 07 | 08 ============================ RAI 31% 25% 27% | 34% => 30% MAS 19% 25% 23% | 28% => 25% HAM 25% 24% 24% | 25% => 25% KOV 1% 24% 16% | 0% => 9% HEI 1% 1% 1% | 6% => 3% KUB 0% 1% 1% | 7% => 3% ALO 24% 1% 8% | 0% => 5% PIQ 0% 1% 1% | 0% => 1% ============================ FER 55% MCL 34% BMW 6% REN 6%
Performances are similar to wins, but a win equals to 0.8 and a second position values 0.2. Past GPs are discounted (faded) a 5% per GP. As can be seen, Ferrari and McLaren are clearly in the top, with advantage for Ferrari. BMW and Renault are the other two teams with discernible probability of win (Renault is there because of Alonso's performance). |
||
|
11 May 2008, 17:19 (Ref:2199121) | #2 | ||
Subscriber
Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 3,259
|
Two GPs have passed and now I have a bit more data about probability of win.
The table is now arranged a bit differently in its structure of columns. Code:
CW PW EFW FWs TWs ETW PMW RAI 2 25% 3,26 1 - 6 3 - 8 5,26 48% MAS 2 23% 2,96 0 - 5 2 - 7 4,96 40% HAM 1 20% 2,59 0 - 5 1 - 6 3,59 12% KOV 0 9% 1,16 0 - 3 0 - 3 1,16 0.2% KUB 0 7% 0,88 0 - 2 0 - 2 0,88 0.1% HEI 0 6% 0,73 0 - 2 0 - 2 0,73 --- ALO 0 5% 0,60 0 - 2 0 - 2 0,60 --- ROS 0 2% 0,25 0 - 1 0 - 1 0,25 --- PW: Probability of win. EFW: Expected future wins in the rest of the season. FWs: Probable (95%) interval of future wins. TWs: Probable (95%) interval of total wins in the season (CW+FWs). ETW: Expected total wins in the season (CW+EFW). PMW: Probability of being the most winning driver in the season. The key of those calculations is the estimation of PW. It is done as formerly said in the first post. It is just an orientating value based in a particular model and sample values of this season. Usually the driver with most wins gets the title (just *usually*), so PMW is a good guess for the probability of winning the champioship. The data would show there is a close fight between KR and FM, but LH also has a chance. Interestingly (or perhaps obviously) the title chase looks already limited to three drivers. The next GP, Monaco, is the most particular one in the schedule, so perhaps things can change a bit in two weeks time. |
||
|
11 May 2008, 20:15 (Ref:2199227) | #3 | ||
Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 5,100
|
Nice stats. I think that Monaco and Canada could swing the pendulum back towards McLaren, but who knows ...
|
||
__________________
Marbot : "Ironically, the main difference between a Red Bull and a Virgin is that Red Bull can make parts of its car smaller and floppier." |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
2008 ETC Cup: Salzburgring Oct 17-19 2008 | Matt | Touring Car Racing | 14 | 9 Mar 2008 13:06 |
Probability of Win | Schummy | Formula One | 12 | 15 Apr 2007 22:18 |
Super Aguri - We can win in 2008 | Redlake27 | Formula One | 32 | 15 Apr 2007 15:57 |
Probability of win (warning: strange calculations!) | Schummy | Formula One | 17 | 1 Jun 2005 10:57 |